TX-SEN: True to Form

[UWS]

Quinnipiac poll coming tomorrow.

what were the results of the previous Quinnipiac polls

Cruz 49 - Beto 43 (7/26 - 7/31)

I guess the next one coming tommorrow will be even closer.

[aaroncd107]

Quinnipiac poll coming tomorrow.

what were the results of the previous Quinnipiac polls

Cruz 49 - Beto 43 (7/26 - 7/31) rv

Cruz 50 - Beto 39 (5/23-5/29) rv
Cruz 47 - Beto 44 (4/12-4/17) rv

This will be the first likely voter poll from QP in this race. My guess is Cruz +1

[Devout Centrist]

F[inks] it, Beto by 1. 47-46

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I'm gonna go with a tied race or Cruz up by 1-2 in the poll.

[wbrocks67]

Yah, we might be pushing it but I think this will be the first poll that Beto leads.

[Torrain]

F[inks] it, Beto by 1. 47-46

Seconded. There's been a lot public hand-wringing from Cruz, Cornyn, Mulvaney to try and increase the cash flow into the race. That degree of concern has to be based on some data that's spooked them.

Beto +1 would fit the bill.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

F[inks] it, Beto by 1. 47-46

Haha no.

[MillennialModerate]

You guys are batsh**t crazy, sorry to say.

Poll probably shows Cruz up 3.

I see most races as tossups but TN & TX are fools gold

[BaldEagle1991]

I think at this point a Ted Cruz-related scandal is needed for Beto to get a huge jump in the polls.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I decided to revise my prediction from Cruz +5 to a Cruz +2.

The reason for this is I checked on the Quinnipiac methodology, and they seem to use random digit dialing rather than calling off the voter file. That means that their poll may overstate Beto's support because it will be measuring Dem enthusiasm (which Beto does have a lot of), rather than actual support from people who will actually vote.

This is what happened with Quinnipiac's 2nd to last poll in VA-GOV, which greatly overstated Northam's lead at 17 points (although their final poll was much better).

So presuming they use this sort of likely voter model, there is a grave danger that they will similarly overstate Dem chances in Texas. It is even quite possible, if I have that correct, that they might actually find Beto with a lead.

In addition, a further problem with random digit dialing in Texas in particular is that if you don't verify that respondents are actually registered to vote, a significant number of people (who will skew Democratic) may incorrectly believe or state that they are registered to vote, due to Texas' low voter registration and participation rates. So then the poll ends up looking more like the TX population rather than actual voters, and there is a big difference between the population and voters.

Quinnipiac poll coming tomorrow.

I'm going to guess it will have Cruz +5.

EDIT --- revising my prediction to Cruz +2 because Quinnipiac uses random digit dialing ---

An important thing to watch is the undecideds. If it is close, it will probably have high undecideds.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Seconded. There's been a lot public hand-wringing from Cruz, Cornyn, Mulvaney to try and increase the cash flow into the race. That degree of concern has to be based on some data that's spooked them.

Beto +1 would fit the bill.

There's clearly some concern, but I think that at least some of it is strategic concern.

We know from other reports that there is a problem where Trump voters think that Democrats can't possibly win, which means that they may not think they need to bother to vote.

As a response to this, Republicans have been trying to say that Democrats actually could win, in order to try to persuade Republicans that they actually need to vote.

Of course, if Republicans don't vote, then Cruz *would* lose. So the GOP has good strategic reason to pretend that TX-SEN is more competitive than it actually is.

[Torrain]

Seconded. There's been a lot public hand-wringing from Cruz, Cornyn, Mulvaney to try and increase the cash flow into the race. That degree of concern has to be based on some data that's spooked them.

Beto +1 would fit the bill.

There's clearly some concern, but I think that at least some of it is strategic concern.

We know from other reports that there is a problem where Trump voters think that Democrats can't possibly win, which means that they may not think they need to bother to vote.

As a response to this, Republicans have been trying to say that Democrats actually could win, in order to try to persuade Republicans that they actually need to vote.

Of course, if Republicans don't vote, then Cruz *would* lose. So the GOP has good strategic reason to pretend that TX-SEN is more competitive than it actually is.

Aye, like Tammy Baldwin repeatedly stating that she can and might lose. It's a classic tactic. I just think it's notable that it's happening in Texas of all places, and a sign that there's a real race here.

[BaldEagle1991]

Interesting comparison of the 2018 Texas Sen race to 2006 Virginia Sen race
 
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/406554-cruz-orourke-increasingly-looks-like-allen-webb

Sorry forgot the link earlier

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1041857615637229568

[BaldEagle1991]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1041857615637229568

Culberson up by 4?

I know this is not that topic, but I'm pissed. Lizzie should've done more to put her name out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1041845973100756992

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1041857615637229568

That feels comfortably above the benchmark a Democrat would need in TX-07 for a statewide win.

[junior chįmp]

The end is near for lying Ted

[Antonio the Sixth]

The end is near for lying Ted

OK, with odds like that I'd definitely buy Cruz's stock if I were into that sort of thing.

[BaldEagle1991]

What would be a perfect county by county map of a winning formula for a Beto O’Rourke victory?

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1041857615637229568

Culberson up by 4?

I know this is not that topic, but I'm pissed. Lizzie should've done more to put her name out.

It's tough for Fletcher, but the level of crossover voting this indicates for O'Rourke is energising.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto has Vered off into a more liberal direction as of late and he has gone no further than 3-6 pounts down. TX is fools gold for Dems, just like Nelson will win in FL.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not sure why, but it's amusing to me that its mid-September and there's still reassurances like "The Texas Republican will pull off his re-election".


What a weird year 2018 has been.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So is anything coming out of that mailers disguised as summons thing?

[BaldEagle1991]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1041857615637229568

Culberson up by 4?

I know this is not that topic, but I'm pissed. Lizzie should've done more to put her name out.

It's tough for Fletcher, but the level of crossover voting this indicates for O'Rourke is energising.

Well a good update is that the poll got much closer, but if Beto does well in that sort it it’ll no doubt help Fletcher.