Day 19: Maine (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Day 19: Maine (search mode)
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Author Topic: Day 19: Maine  (Read 2861 times)
Kevinstat
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Posts: 1,823


« on: September 12, 2005, 09:56:39 PM »

I've been looking forward to this discussion for days, but now that the day of discussing my home state is here, I'm not that into it.  I will provide some links to some earlier threads where I commented on Maine's Presidential results in 2000 and 2004.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=65.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=8059.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=18419.0

I don't have the mental energy to discuss trends for the future now, except to say that I don't see the Democrats winning the election and not winning all four of Maine's electoral votes, or them not winning the election where they would have won if they had won all four of Maine's electoral votes.  I think the state and both districts (particularly the first) will continue to be more Democratic than the nation as a whole, but the difference between Maine's results and those of the nation may well go down somewhat, both in the first district due to how great the difference was in the last election and the second where Hillary might not come across too well if she's the nominee.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
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Kevinstat
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Posts: 1,823


« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2005, 03:44:36 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2005, 04:16:18 PM by Kevinstat »

I wouldn't be so sure that northern Maine is conservative.

As a matter of fact, I am pretty sure the part of Maine that borders Canada is rather liberal.

I assume you are speaking of the Saint John Valley in northern Aroostook County.  It is very Democratic, yes, but I wouldn't say it was liberal, particularly not culturally.  On the economic front, it's probably not supportive of big bussiness or strict lassez faire economics but not supportive of tax and spend liberalism either.  Of course, even some (if not most) areas that elect party-line Democratic congressmen are populated by people who by and large would not say they supported "tax and spend liberalism".  Maine's first district is a good example of this, with a prominent Maine polster calling the swing voters there "cruel yuppies" in the Portland suburbs who are supposed to have an aversion to taxes but nevertheless consistently support Tom Allen, although Republican Jim Longley carried the Portland suburbs (besides South Portland which by Maine standards is urban rather than suburban and Brunswick which is sevaral towns away and might be considered a smaller urban center of its own, although perhaps not for long with BNAS closing).  It's almost as if people thought, "he [Longley] said he was going to be a fiscal conservative, but we didn't think he was going to keep his word."  That sentiment is one I have heard attributed to college students in Minnesota who voted for Jesse Ventura for Governor in 1998.

Also, I read somewhere that a number of women in the first district mistakenly thought Longley was pro-choice, and I inferred from that that a lot of those women supported him over his Franco-American Democratic opponent who was a recent convert to the pro-choice position.  At the same time, if I recall correctly, "pro-Lifers" or "right-to-Lifers" (by which I assume is meant pro-Life voters who give a lot of weight to that position) were listed in the Almanac of American Politics 1996 as a group that (as a whole, I assume the almanac was saying) supported Longley.  Such voters probably usually vote Republican anyway, but I just wanted to point out that Longley may have gotten lucky as to how the abortion issue impacted the race that year.  Republican Governor John "Jock" (or "Joke" if you're a Democrat) McKernan gave hints to gay rights supporters during his tough bid for reelection in 1990 that he would let a gay rights bill become law without his signature if a significant majority in the Legislature voted for it, which according to my favorite satirical political pundit won him the support of some gay rights activists in that election without losing support from the other side, who apparently didn't learn of the "deal" until later.  When they did, they understandably got very angry.  This reaction is seemingly given credit by this satirical collumnist (Al Diamon in case you're interested) for Governor McKernan's subsquent veto (twice) of gay rights bills, each time using the "significant majority" caveat to justify his veto, even apparenly using the fact that more Republicans voted agaisnt the bill the second time than for it as meaning that the bill didn't have significant majority support.

So there's some early-to-mid nineties Maine political history for you.  I know it was a diversion from the main discussion (no pun intended), but there's no stopping ME when I get on a roll.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
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Kevinstat
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Posts: 1,823


« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2005, 06:41:57 PM »

We'd be glad to have you all come and visit.  And unlike Oregon, we actually wouldn't mind if you moved here as well. Smiley  We need more young people in Maine.
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