Spanish elections and politics IV / European Parliament campaign, diplomatic crisis with Argentina

[Velasco]

In case you want to continue discussing on the figure of Mr. Handsome, here's an interesting article to read

"Pedro Sánchez, the political survivor who keeps resisting against all odds", by El País political correspondent

https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-11-16/pedro-sanchez-the-political-survivor-who-keeps-resisting-against-all-odds.html

It took him a long time to get them to take him seriously. Ten years ago, when Pedro Sánchez decided to try his luck in the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) primaries, and he began to tell his close circle about it, not even some of his close friends who are now in La Moncloa, the seat of government, thought he had a chance. Some even advised against it. No one knew him within the party, he had no organic weight, it seemed impossible that he could become general secretary (...)
  

As for the formation of the new PSOE-Sumar coalition government, little is known aside the likelihood of a stronger political profile in the new cabinet members. This new legislative term will be tough due to the necessity of a constant negotiation and the heavy right-wing opposition, so it'd be logical that Sánchez will be looking for ministers ready to engage in political battles.

I heard some rumours in the news concerning the Más Madrid leader Mónica García, who could be appointed Health minister.  Mónica García is anaesthetist and a staunch advocate of public healthcare.

Aside Yolanda Díaz and Mónica García,  other Sumar members in the cabinet could be Ernest Urtasun (ECP), Nacho Álvarez (Podemos) or Sira Rego (IU). Despite Nacho Álvarez is still a member of the Podemos leadership,  the exclusion of acting ministers Irene Montero and Ione Belarra could be considered a casus belli by the purple party. Pablo Iglesias is already warning about the possible breakaway of Podemos, which certainly could weaken Sumar and the coalition government. Irene Montero could lead a Podemos list in next year's EP elections

[peterthlee]

Will Ayuso be the PM one day?

[Velasco]

Will Ayuso be the PM one day?

It's a possibility that hopefully will never materialize

Feijóo is still the PP leader,  on the other hand. For all his aggresive rhetorics and hyperboles (almost inevitable under the current climate in Madrid), the man from Galicia preserves some rests of civility totally absent in Ayuso

https://english.elpais.com/opinion/2023-11-16/spain-the-investiture-of-the-amnesty.html

  The PP leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, attacked the candidate’s contradictions, accused him of political corruption and electoral fraud, but finally said in Parliament: “This is a legitimate majority for an investiture.” Although there is a multiple symphony of voices within the PP today, and even though the general rhetoric still resorts to a dangerous hyperbole in competition with Vox, the words of the PP president were a reassuring novelty in the middle of a very tough, fierce debate, but one that fell squarely within the bounds of democratic normality inside a Congress of Deputies that was surrounded by security forces.

[Velasco]

Acting Consumer Affairs minister Alberto Garzón resigns IU leadership. Garzón announced his tetirement from politics prior the general elections. Despite previous differences with Yolanda Díaz,  he supported the Sumar candidate while trying to mediate between her and the Podemos leadership. Garzón also supported the electoral coalition with Podemos (Unidas Podemos, existing between 2016 and 2023), facing some opposition within IU membership resentful at the perceived arrogance of the Pablo Iglesias party.

https://twitter.com/agarzon/status/1725432276203217375?t=ovIxuU8qm-KdueyRozgxDQ&...

[Velasco]

The CEO --a sociological institute depending on the Catalan government-- released a poll today, conducted during the negotiations between the PSOE and the Catalan nationalist parties (before the final agreements). In case a referendum on independence would take place, 41% would vote "yes" and 52% "no". According to the poll 73% supports indy ref, while 60% supports amnesty. The PSC would win the regional elections with relative ease, while pro-independence parties would lose their current majority in the Parliament of Catalonia

PSC 39/45 seats
ERC 29/34 seats
JUNTS 19/24 seats
PP 12/17 seats
ECP 10/14 seats
VOX 6/9 seats
CUP 4/8 seats

Pro-independence: 52/66 out of 135

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20231117/encuesta-ceo-elecciones-catalunya-noviembre-2023-94719077

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What is the age profile of Catalan nationalists? Is it a youthful movement or the sort of thing that is confined to aging romantics?

[Velasco]

What is the age profile of Catalan nationalists? Is it a youthful movement or the sort of thing that is confined to aging romantics?

Are you referring soecifically to Catalan nationalism, or do you want tobknow about support for independence?

At the peak of the pro-independence process support for an independent Catalonia was broader among the younger age groups. However, recent polls show increasing disinterest among millenials and generation Z, as well as an increasing support for autonomy. As of June 2023, according to CEO institute, support for independence amounts 35% in the 18-24 age group and 37% in the 25-34. Experts point to "weariness" and "impatience", in order to explain this reversing trend

https://www.infolibre.es/politica/vez-independentistas-apoyo-proces-desploma-jovenes-catalanes_1_1594208.html

Regarding the vote for nationalist parties, in the last regional elections Junts won mostly in rural municipalities with aging populations, while the vote for PSC or Vox increased in municipalities with younger populations. The vote for ERC is more evenly distributed across Catalonia. I haven't found post-election analysis for the last GE in Catalonia,  but given the general results and the age group distribution of national parties, I'd bet PSC-PSOE and ECP/Sumar won a landslide among young voters

[Velasco]

Nacho Álvarez is the Podemos' main economist and the man who negotiated economic policies with the Pedro Sánchez team including: budgets, minimum subsistence income, "social shield", anti-inflationary measures, taxes on excess profits (banks and electric companies), reduced VAT or freezing rent prices. He is a member of the Podemos leadership, but also has a good relationship with Yolanda Díaz and collaborated in the Sumar campaign and the design of economic proposals. Yolanda Díaz proposed Álvarez as a new cabinet member representing Podemos, in exchange for the Podemos loyalty to Sumar, ceasing "insults" and "attacks" against other parties and individualswithin Sumar. The Podemos leadership has vetoed the appointment of Nacho Álvarez and persists in demanding the continuity of the burned out Irene Montero as Equality minister. Nacho Álvarez thanks Yolanda Diaz and renounces to the appointment, because he wants to be loyal to his organization. The Podemos breakaway and the migration of its 5 MPs from Sumar to the Mixed Group are closing in. Eventually Podemos could conform an informal bloc or entente with ERC, Bildu and BNG


https://twitter.com/nachoalvarez_/status/1725601664411795701?t=Lq7tDsN0U9gITz5dF...

In his statement Nacho Álvarez makes clear his loyalty to the organization without hiding his differences with the Podemos leadership. Álvarez remarks the important role played by Podemos in recent years. He also says the goal of a political organization should be serving the interests of voters and the people it represents, not the interests of the leadership or its membership.

EDIT: Nacho Álvarez announced his retirement from politics over the Podemos leadership veto to his appointment as minister. Yet another victim of the Pablo Iglesias Cult Sect (aka Podemos or Canal Red)

[Velasco]

"Spain's descent into tyranny ". Enjoy

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1725556767365443753?t=wYupd6vErovT2voch...

Tucker Carlson cannot be taken seriously by anyone with a basic knowledge of Spain's history and politics, but his vile and ignorant takes cannot be dismissed because they are intoxicating a broad audience. Carlson establishes a connection between two unrelated events: amnesty law and the attempt to kill Vox founder Vidal Quadras, a retired politician who says the Iranian government was behind (reportedly the police is investigating in that direction). Then he uses the non-existing connection to draw historical parallels with the beginning of the Spanish Civil War, which I suspect it was a completely unknown event for Carlson ten minutes before interviewing the Vox leader Santiago Abascal

I don't know if you need further analysis on the claims of Santiago Abascal: wokeness, climate agenda, Soros, islamization of Spain...

[Velasco]

Comparing The Guardian and The Observer editorials on the amnesty law gives you an idea of how controversial and divisive can be this affair, even within the same family

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/14/the-guardian-view-on-an-amnesty-deal-for-catalan-separatists-pedro-sanchez-is-right-to-gamble-again

Yet notwithstanding the fraught context, Mr Sánchez is right to take the risk, and not just on the grounds of political self-interest. In 2021, there was also an outcry after his decision to pardon nine jailed Catalan separatists. At the time, he observed that “Spanish society needs to move from a bad past to a better future – and that will require magnanimity”. Six years after Mr Puigdemont’s ill-conceived referendum provoked a draconian response from Madrid, that remains true.

The pardons undoubtedly helped defuse poisonous confrontations that led to Spain’s worst constitutional crisis since the return of democracy. Catalan enthusiasm for unilateral action has waned since 2017, while support for independence has fallen from a high of 49% and now stands in the low 40s. Mr Sánchez’s socialist colleague Santos Cerdán was justified in saying last week that the current negotiations offered a “historic opportunity to resolve a conflict that could – and should – only be resolved politically” (...)

Mr Sánchez will have his work cut out to reconcile mainstream Spanish opinion, and many members of the judiciary, to his deal with Mr Puigdemont and company. But as a bulwark against such extremism on the far right, his continued presence in power will be good news for the country, and for Europe.
 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/19/pedro-sanchez-amnesty-catalan-separatists-spain-observer-editorial

In short, Sánchez’s amnesty has all the hallmarks of a bad deal, reached in bad faith, secured at too high a cost and unlikely to stick for long. Is this unpopular, legally dubious, unsustainable manoeuvre justified by the need to prevent the return to power of the far right for the first time since the Franco era? Barely. There is a clear danger that it will undermine faith in democracy, increase public distrust, fuel instability and encourage extremists to resort to extra-parliamentary methods.

[Velasco]

According to journalist Antonio Maestre, the Sumar cabinet members will be:

• Yolanda Díaz: Deputy PM and Labour minister
• Mónica García (MM): Health
• Ernest Urtasun (ECP): Culture
• Pablo Bustinduy: Social Rights
• Sira Rego (IU): Youth and Childhood

In case these names are confirmed, Podemos won't have representation in the cabinet after the not inclusion of acting ministers (Irene Montero and Ione Belarra) and the renounce of the man proposed by Diaz (Nacho Álvarez). Equality would be trsnsferred to the PSOE, while the Social Rights portfolio is for one of the best and most appreciated represrntatives of the initial Podemos: Pablo Bustinduy, a political scientist and international relations expert who was a former UP foreign affairs spokesperson in Congress

[Velasco]

Composition of the new government led by Pedro Sánchez:

● Nadia Calviño (Economy), Yolanda Díaz (Labour), Maria Jesús Montero (Treasury) and Teresa Ribera (Environment) remain as Deputy PMs

● Grande-Marlaska [Interior), Albares (Foreign Affairs), Robles (Defense) and Planas (Agriculture) continue

● Among the new incorporations: Óscar Puente (former Valladolid mayor and Feijóo's whip in the investiture attempt), Ángel Víctor Torres (former Canaries premier), Jordi Hereu (former Barcelona mayor, PSC quota), Mónica García (Más Madrid leader and Ayuso's whip)

● 12 women and 5 Sumar members

Full list

• Pedro Sánchez: PM

Deputy PMs

• Nadia Calviño: Economy
• Yolanda Díaz: Labour and Social Economy
• Teresa Ribera: Ecologic Transition and Demographic Challenge
• María Jesús Montero: Treasury

Ministries

• José Manuel Albares: Foreign Affairs
• Félix Bolaños: Presidency and Justice
• Margarita Robles: Defense
• Fernando Grande-Marlaska: Interior
• Ernest Urtasun: Culture
• Diana Morant: Science and Universities
• Jordi Hereu: Industry
• Ángel Víctor Torres: Territorial Policy and Democratic Memory
• Pablo Bustinduy: Social Rights and Consumer Affairs
• Pilar Alegría: Education, Professional Training, Sports and Government's Spokesperson
• Mónica García: Health
• Luis Planas: Agriculture
• Óscar Puente: Transport
• Sira Rego: Childhood and Youth
• Isabel Rodríguez: Housing and Urban Agenda
• Elma Sáiz: Social Security
• José Luis Escrivá: Digital Transformation
• Ana Redondo ' Equality

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

On RTVE, they categorized the new government into 5 groups (below). Behold the level of posting I can accomplish when I am bored at my work computer with no work to do.

1. The vice presidents

Nadia Calviño (PSOE-Independent):
• Economic Affairs (no change, but lost Digital Transformation)
Yolanda Díaz (Sumar-PCE):
• Labor and Social Economy (no change)
Teresa Ribera (PSOE):
• Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge (no change)
María Jesús Montero (PSOE):
• Finance (no change, but elevated to vice-presidential rank)

2. "El núcleo" (the most trusted allies of Pedro Sánchez)

Félix Bolaños (PSOE):
• Presidency & Relations with Parliament (no change)
• Justice (replaces Pilar Llop of PSOE)
Pilar Alegría (PSOE):
• Education, Professional Training, Sport (no change except Sport was taken from Min. of Culture & Sport, which was held by Miquel Iceta of PSOE-PSC)
• Government Spokesperson (replaces Isabel Rodríguez of PSOE)

3. The Sumar people (plus Yoli = total of 5)

Ernest Urtasun (Sumar-Catalunya en Comú):
• Culture (replaces Miquel Iceta of PSOE-PSC)
Pablo Bustinduy (Sumar-Independent, former Podemos leader):
• Social Rights and Consumer Affairs (replaces Ione Belarra of Podemos re: Social Rights, replaces Alberto Garzón of UP-IU-PCE re: Consumer Affairs)
Sira Rego (Sumar-IU-PCE):
• Childhood and Youth (new ministry)
Mónica García (Sumar-Más Madrid):
• Health (replaces José Miñones of PSOE)

4. The new PSOE people, former local and regional politicians

Jordi Hereu (PSOE-PSC), former mayor of Barcelona:
• Industry (replaces Héctor Gómez of PSOE)
Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE), former president of Canary Islands:
• Territorial Policy and Democratic Memory (replaces Isabel Rodríguez of PSOE re: territory; replaces Félix Bolaños of PSOE re: memory)
Óscar Puente (PSOE), former mayor of Valladolid:
• Transport (replaces José Luis Ábalos of PSOE)
Elma Sáiz (PSOE):
• Social Security (new ministry taken from "Social Security" work of former "Min. of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration" which was José Luis Escrivá of PSOE-Independent)
Ana Redondo (PSOE):
• Equality (replaces Irene Montero of Podemos)

5. The old PSOE people, no changes at these jobs except Rodríguez and Escrivá

José Manuel Albares (PSOE):
• Foreign Affairs
Margarita Robles (PSOE-Independent):
• Defense
Fernando Grande-Marlaska (PSOE-Independent):
• Interior
Diana Morant (PSOE):
• Science and Universities (keeps Science but takes Universities which was Joan Subiratas of UP-Catalunya en Comú)
Luis Planas (PSOE):
• Agriculture
Isabel Rodríguez (PSOE):
• Housing and Urban Agenda (new ministry taken from "Urban Agenda" work of former "Min. of Transport, Mobility, and Urban Agenda" which was José Luis Ábalos of PSOE)
José Luis Escrivá (PSOE-Independent):
• Digital Transformation (new ministry taken from "Digital Transformation" work of former "Min. of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformaion" which was Nadia Calviño of PSOE-Independent)

Let me know if I got anything wrong! Mostly wanted to make a post that looks pretty and colorful. Happy Monday all

[Velasco]

Nadia Calviño will likely leave the government soon, for she's rumoured to be appointed chair of the European Investment Bank. José María Escrivá could take Econony alongside Digital Transformation.

Félix Bolaños is the new government's strongman, despite he is not a deputy PM. Bolaños will be in charge of implementing the amnesty law while trying to build bridges with the judiciary

Let me know if I got anything wrong! Mostly wanted to make a post that looks pretty and colorful. Happy Monday all

Pretty colors,  thank you for the effortpost

[Logical]

Podemos got PSOED real hard.

[Mike88]

Podemos got PSOED real hard.

Good riddance.

[Velasco]

The controversial Irene Montero (Podemos) leaves office replaced by the unknown Ana Redondo (PSOE). The speech of the outgoing minister of Equality is a vindication of the feminist movement and the policies enacted by her ministry,  closing with explicit reproaches to her coalition partners

"Dear minister Ione Belarra: today Pedro Sánchez expel us from the government, because we did what we promised to do, put institutions at the service of feminist advances. Pedro Sánchez expel us and breaks the unity of a democratic bloc in which we need each other..."
https://twitter.com/IreneMontero/status/1726920398871118308?t=dHuUd5pwE-as32H81j...

While progressives in this country think Irene Montero has promoted many positive advances in favour of women and LGBT people, her inability to accept criticism and take responsibility for her errors (the undesired penal consequences* of the law on consent and the disastrous communication policy had enormous costs in votes and popularity), as well as the insufferable mantle of victimhood and sectarianism in what's left of Podemos, is cause of great sadness.  

* To be fair, the reductions in the penalties for men convicted of sexual abuses were not so high, despite they caused big social alarm. Also, the responsibility for the error was shared between Equality (Podemos) and Justice (PSOE) and ultimately the whole government. However, the attitude of Irene Montero and Podemos (their unwillingness to admit errors while blaming everyone else) have been lethal for themselves and harmful for the progressive bloc as a whole.

[Mike88]

And the threats started:

Puigdemont threatens to bring down Sanchéz government in the next budget or in a possible motion of censorship.

The former Catalan president and leader of Junts, Carles Puigdemont, has threatened the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, with his party voting against the Government's laws or even supporting the PP in a hypothetical motion of censure if he does not see "sufficient progress." "in the agreement between his party and the PSOE for the investiture. A possibility that the leader of the 'popular', Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has already ruled out.

"We could vote with the PP to tear down the budget or for a resolution on Israel, where our position is actually more aligned" with that of the party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, Puigdemont told 'Politico' this Tuesday night during the ceremony held by this medium to reveal its list of the '28 most influential personalities' in Europe in 2024, in which the Catalan appears in second place among the nine 'disruptors'.

As this media outlet reported to Efe this Wednesday, Puigdemont also told the president of the European People's Party (EPP) and leader of that group in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber, that he could even reach an agreement with the PP to overthrow the government. of the socialist Pedro Sánchez in the middle of his mandate with a motion of censure.
(...)

[Torrain]

Sort of seems inevitable, with a Congress this divided, right?

Would be curious to know how long those more plugged into Spanish politics think this Congress will last - couple of years? Months?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Sort of seems inevitable, with a Congress this divided, right?

Would be curious to know how long those more plugged into Spanish politics think this Congress will last - couple of years? Months?

Could be weeks, but with Pedro Sánchez in charge you never know what he'll manage to pull off.

[Flyersfan232]

Sort of seems inevitable, with a Congress this divided, right?

Would be curious to know how long those more plugged into Spanish politics think this Congress will last - couple of years? Months?

Could be weeks, but with Pedro Sánchez in charge you never know what he'll manage to pull off.

left wing bibi

[Former President tack50]

And the threats started:

Puigdemont threatens to bring down Sanchéz government in the next budget or in a possible motion of censorship.

The former Catalan president and leader of Junts, Carles Puigdemont, has threatened the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, with his party voting against the Government's laws or even supporting the PP in a hypothetical motion of censure if he does not see "sufficient progress." "in the agreement between his party and the PSOE for the investiture. A possibility that the leader of the 'popular', Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has already ruled out.

"We could vote with the PP to tear down the budget or for a resolution on Israel, where our position is actually more aligned" with that of the party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, Puigdemont told 'Politico' this Tuesday night during the ceremony held by this medium to reveal its list of the '28 most influential personalities' in Europe in 2024, in which the Catalan appears in second place among the nine 'disruptors'.

As this media outlet reported to Efe this Wednesday, Puigdemont also told the president of the European People's Party (EPP) and leader of that group in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber, that he could even reach an agreement with the PP to overthrow the government. of the socialist Pedro Sánchez in the middle of his mandate with a motion of censure.
(...)

This is just bluffing. Hell will freeze over before Sanchez gets overthrown by, of all things, a deal between PP, Vox and Junts. If anything, a deal with PNV would be slightly more likely, and that is also extremely unlikely

[MRCVzla]

Breaking: Podemos breaks up with Sumar, their 5 MPs moves to the Mixed Group, along Junts they are sort of kingmakers now.

Chronicle of an Announced Death? Not until the EP Elections, with no threshold, they only have to get circa 2% to elect at least 1 MEPs (Montero most likely).

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

So much potential left to wither away because some people's egos were too big.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully Podemos gets wiped out next election and Sumar becomes the main voice of the Spanish hard-left.