Spanish elections and politics IV / European Parliament campaign, diplomatic crisis with Argentina

[Logical]

Why do both Sumar and Podemos exist as separate entities? I’m just not very well versed in this.

Classic disease of the Spanish Left; the lower they are in the polls, the more parties they divide themselves into.

[Mike88]

Why do both Sumar and Podemos exist as separate entities? I’m just not very well versed in this.

Classic disease of the Spanish Left; the lower they are in the polls, the more parties they divide themselves into.

Plus, there is the personal "feud", let's call it that way, between Iglesias and Díaz.

[Mike88]

Most voted party by municipality:

https://twitter.com/europapress/status/1782162537330389251

The results in Euskadi, municipality by municipality. This is the map of the most voted parties in each location with Bildu winning the majority

[Lumine]

I honestly, sincerely cannot name one meaningful ideological difference between Sumar and Podemos. All I see is Podemos' perception of Yolanda Diaz as being too "moderate" and too willing to collaborate with Sánchez and PSOE; and Sumar's dismissal of Podemos as being either too caught in the past or being too subservient to Pablo Iglesias.

So yeah, it does seem like a personal feud that leads into an irrational situation. It's increasingly absurd to see so many Spanish left-wing parties to the point of having coalitions within coalitions (like IU within Podemos and now Sumar).

[Velasco]

Regardless of whether Pablo Iglesias claims otherwise in his Canal Red, the Sumar/Podemos feud is not based on ideological differences  - it's all about personal issues. Recently I found a podcast released by Onda Cero (surprisingly impartial, coming from there) that provides a decent panoramic of the short and intense history of Podemos. Not in depth analysis, but highly illustrative gallery including opinions and testimonies from all factions

Thankfully for the Comuns in Catalunya,  Podemos lacks the infrastructure there to stand a candidacy. Sumar, on the other hand, is a liquid and inconsistent "movement" devoid of substance. I don't understand why the people in Yolanda Díaz circle want to commit suicide, or why they are wasting the intelectual capital they amassed for the working groups...

All in all this is the first regional elections night since 2021 that is not bad for Pedro Sánchez - parties supporting the coalition government in Congress win 67 out of 75 seats.  In case the PSC gets a decent result in the Catalan elections, we can almost forget about the Galician election night. But certainly the consequences of the May 2023 catastrophe pervive and the PP has an impressive base of regional power

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why do both Sumar and Podemos exist as separate entities? I’m just not very well versed in this.

Classic disease of the Spanish Left; the lower they are in the polls, the more parties they divide themselves into.

The Italian left (which has long had a similar problem) calls this "the splitting of the atom".

[Logical]

Orexa has done it again. 100% for Bildu.

[Zinneke]

I honestly, sincerely cannot name one meaningful ideological difference between Sumar and Podemos. All I see is Podemos' perception of Yolanda Diaz as being too "moderate" and too willing to collaborate with Sánchez and PSOE; and Sumar's dismissal of Podemos as being either too caught in the past or being too subservient to Pablo Iglesias.

So yeah, it does seem like a personal feud that leads into an irrational situation. It's increasingly absurd to see so many Spanish left-wing parties to the point of having coalitions within coalitions (like IU within Podemos and now Sumar).

I see a difference: Sumar (rightfully) don't pander to insane anti-democratic regimes just because they use leftist symbology. Obviously in a regional election it doesn't matter much but it's a good indicator for me if I think the people running a left-wing party are arseholes or not.

(And Sumar are naive on such issues too, but not compared to Iglesias).

[Battista Minola 1616]

I see Basque Sinn Féin had a surge but still did not manage to overtake Basque Fianna Fáil (or should I say Basque Fine Gael?). Fun times ahead!

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Combined, Sumar + Podemos would have had about 5.5% of the vote, and surely more than 1 seat between them. What an embarrassment that they have not set aside their differences

[crals]

At least the one that managed to salvage a seat was Sumar

[Velasco]

I see Basque Sinn Féin had a surge but still did not manage to overtake Basque Fianna Fáil (or should I say Basque Fine Gael?). Fun times ahead!

The PNV is traditionally described as a party with "two souls" - one Christian Democratic and other Social Democratic ("Social Christian" could could be fitting, perhaps), so it's hard to tell whether the "jeltzales" (PNV folks) are Fianna Fail or Fine Gael. On the one hand, the PNV advocates economic liberalism; on the other hand it has developed a welfare state, even though the well regarded health system (Osakidetza) revealed sime fails during the pandemic. Alongside its traditional Christian Democratic character, the PNV has developed an image of a catch-all technocratic party focused on day-to-day issues.

Why do both Sumar and Podemos exist as separate entities? I’m just not very well versed in this.

Classic disease of the Spanish Left; the lower they are in the polls, the more parties they divide themselves into.

The Italian left (which has long had a similar problem) calls this "the splitting of the atom".

That's an excellent image.  Another characteristic of left-wing parties is that they often provide a good diagnosis of their problems and a good deal of self-criticism, but in the end they persist in the infighting and the harakiri performances

[Velasco]

Araba  / Álava

EH Bildu  8 seats (+2) 29.4% (+4.5%)
EAJ-PNV 7 seats (-2) 27.0% (-5.2%)
PSE-EE 4 seats (=)16.3% (+0.7%)
PP 4 seats (+1)16.0% (+4.5%)
VOX 1 seat (=) 3.7% (-0.1%)
SUMAR 1 seat (+1) 3.7% (new)*

Podemos 0 seats (-2) 2.4% (-5.7%)

Bizkaia / Vizcaya

EAJ-PNV 11 seats (-1) 39.5% (-3.1%)
EH Bildu 8 seats (+2) 28.6% (+4.7%)
PSE-EE 4 seats (+1) 14.1% (+0 5%)
PP 2 seats (=) 9.1% (+2.3%)

SUMAR 0 seats (new)* 3.4%
Podemos 0 seats (-2) 2.3% (-6.3%)
VOX 0 seats (=) 1.9% (=)

Gipuzkoa / Guipúzcoa

EH Bildu 11 seats (+2) 40 3% (+5.0%)
EAJ-PNV 9 seats (-1) 31 8% (-4.6%)
PSE-EE 4 seats (+1) 13.6% (+0.7%)
PP 1 seat (=) 6 4% (+1.7%)

SUMAR 0 seats (new)* 3.1%
Podemos 0 seats (-2) 2.2% (-5.0%)
VOX 0 seats (=) 1.5% (+0 2%)

* What is today SUMAR and Podemos were parts of the same coalition in 2020. In case both were running together (and getting the same amount of votes), the unitary list could have won two additional seats at the expense of PSE-EE in Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa

[Velasco]

New polls for the Catalan elections

GESOP

PSC 26.4% (38/40 seats)
JUNTS 20.4% (32/34)
ERC 18% (28/30)
PP 8.9% (13/14)
VOX 6.9% (8/9)
COMUNS 5.7% (6/7)
CUP 4% (4/6)
AC 2.9% (0/1)
Cs 1%

40 dB

PSC 27.1% (38/40)
JUNTS 21.1% (32/35)
ERC 18.2% (26/29)
PP 11.5% (11/13)
VOX 7% (8/11)
COMUNS 5.9% (5/7)
CUP 5% (5/7)
AC 2.1% (0/1)
Cs 1.3%

[Oryxslayer]

New polls for the Catalan elections

GESOP

PSC 26.4% (38/40 seats)
JUNTS 20.4% (32/34)
ERC 18% (28/30)
PP 8.9% (13/14)
VOX 6.9% (8/9)
COMUNS 5.7% (6/7)
CUP 4% (4/6)
AC 2.9% (0/1)
Cs 1%

40 dB

PSC 27.1% (38/40)
JUNTS 21.1% (32/35)
ERC 18.2% (26/29)
PP 11.5% (11/13)
VOX 7% (8/11)
COMUNS 5.9% (5/7)
CUP 5% (5/7)
AC 2.1% (0/1)
Cs 1.3%

As per usual (these days) for Catalan elections, there are two governments. There is the main nationalist option of Junts, ERC, CUP. Interestingly enough these polls put them right around the majority line when in the past decade they have always been over it - perhaps because AC and the PSC are poaching voters. The second option is PSC and ERC, though not in so simple a formation. The PSC would probably once more be in a confidence-and-supply role.

I feel reasonably confident that if there's going to be a nationalist majority, and Junts/Puigdemont end up as the largest faction of the three nationalist parties, there will be trouble for Sanchez. The ERC could "betray" Junts allowing the current Catalan government to continue, giving Junts the perceived slight they need to justify their future actions. Alternatively the nationalist government will return and Puigdemont will be both emboldened and have the personal power for future actions. Neither option is good for the long term health of Sanchez's coalition, but with Puigdemont leading the Junts list there seems little wiggle room for the ERC to finish ahead of them and prevent any of this from mattering.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's hoping the nationalist abscess finally pops.

[jaichind]

Pedro Sánchez might resign.  This seems to be related to corruption allegations against his wife.

[Zinneke]

Ayuso is also under serious pressure for her partner's dealings. The two party system is rotten to the core when these two make it to extremely powerful executive offices.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

If Spain wants to bully its president out of office, send him here! Any country would be more than lucky to have a leader like Pedro Sanchez. #FREESANCHEZ

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Here is the open letter of Pedro Sánchez:

I'll try to get a real translation instead of attempting one on my own.

https://twitter.com/sanchezcastejon/status/1783181535337734409

[Lumine]

Pedro Sánchez might resign.  This seems to be related to corruption allegations against his wife.

Never say never of course, but this is the man who refused to quit after being defenestrated by the PSOE barons - they're all gone, even Diaz -, who kept at it through successive electoral failure until he got into power - Rajoy, Iglesias and Rivera are all long gone too - and who has stubbornly clung to power against all the odds.

So yeah. Could be, but I sincerely doubt Sánchez has put himself through so many things since 2015 to suddenly quit and go out with a whimper.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

In other news, PSOE has selected Sánchez's third vice president (or "third deputy prime minister") Teresa Ribera as PSOE's lead candidate for the EU Parliament elections. Ribera is also the minister for the ecological transition. She succeeds Josep Borrell, the current EU foreign minister.

https://twitter.com/Teresaribera/status/1783059675144954313

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pedro Sánchez might resign.  This seems to be related to corruption allegations against his wife.

Ayuso is also under serious pressure for her partner's dealings. The two party system is rotten to the core when these two make it to extremely powerful executive offices.

They're both (photogenic) limpets, so only ever believe if and when it actually happens and even then make sure to double check.

[Flyersfan232]

Pedro Sánchez might resign.  This seems to be related to corruption allegations against his wife.

Never say never of course, but this is the man who refused to quit after being defenestrated by the PSOE barons - they're all gone, even Diaz -, who kept at it through successive electoral failure until he got into power - Rajoy, Iglesias and Rivera are all long gone too - and who has stubbornly clung to power against all the odds.

So yeah. Could be, but I sincerely doubt Sánchez has put himself through so many things since 2015 to suddenly quit and go out with a whimper.

its possible something very serious is about to happened regarding the corruption allegations though.

[Zinneke]

Or it could be just classic Spanish lawfare. But I'm sure the Spanish legal expert will again lecture me on how great their judicial system is. I mean the organisation prosecuting Sanchez's wife is your classic ultra-nationalist group that openly boasted that "if they went after Ayuso we'll go after his wife". Going to jail for misuse of funds also seems to only apply if you're Catalan.