Spanish elections and politics IV / European Parliament campaign, diplomatic crisis with Argentina

[CumbrianLefty]

Should we read anything wider into Vox getting such a low score?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Should we read anything wider into Vox getting such a low score?

Probably nothing wider than Vox having little appeal in Galicia, which has been true in all elections so far.

[Velasco]

Congratulations to the Galician branch of Podemos, what an absolute joke. Fóra!

I wonder, is there any speculation about Rueda possibly leading the PP in the (distant) future? I don't know much of anything about him, but as we all know the list of historical presidents of the party has a Galician bias.

  There's no speculation at all. Alfonso Rueda was just Feijóo's number two in Galicia until last night. I don't think the man has ambitions outside Galicia. Ayuso and Bonilla are the 'barons' everybody speculates about.

Well, the results confirm the PP rock solid base in Galicia and represent a defeat for the national government (PSOE and Sumar). Controversies dominating national politics have played a little role in the outcome, apparently. On the one hand, Feijóo and the PP energe victorious despite recent blunders. On the other hand, the PSOE's disastrous result is apparently unrelated to the amnesty law (PSOE loses went to the BNG, a nationalist party supporting amnesty). The BNG's historical results reward the labour of Ana Pontón in opposition, as well as confirm that focusing on social issues instead of sovereignty issues is a successful formula for left-wing nationalists (see Bildu or Sinn Fein in Ireland). The BNG collects nearly all the vote that went for Sumar in general elections and a good chunk of the PSOE vote. Complete failure of Yolanda Diaz and Sumar,  specially considering that Diaz is Galician. Podemos gets less votes than the PACMA, confirming that it's only a marginal force (albeit it retains a destructive
potential). Vox failed again and predictably will fail in the ypcoming Basque Country elections. in the end PP and BNG are the parties that have a solid territorial implementation in Galicia. PP mobilized conservative voters when its majority looked imperilled and the BNG mobilized progressive voters on the illusion of change. The PSOE has solid local leaders, particularly in Vigo, but its regional organization is weak. Sumar is a virtual entity and Yolanda Díaz has not the makings of a leader, sadly.

In terms of ideological blocs, the balance remains stable.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Should we read anything wider into Vox getting such a low score?

I saw an analyst on the news blaming the "centralism" ideology of Boks for their (past and present) failure in Galicia. PP, which we should recall was founded by the feudal lord of Galicia Manuel Fraga, has always been viewed as respecting Galician interests. Boks was founded on the idea of national "equality" (a/k/a a total lack of respect for regional differences). This plays well in the conservative and/or Castillian parts of Spain, but fell flat in Galicia. This was also cited as the reason for Ciudadanos never ever gaining a base in Galicia either, at least according to the analyst I heard. (I think she was correct)

[MRCVzla]

Lehendakari Iñigo Urkullu (PNV) has called the Basque regional election to be held on April 21. An important election due to the possibility of EH Bildu to surpass PNV in votes and seats and attempt to lead a left-wing or nationalist coalition to govern, still the most probably scenario should be PNV+PSE renewing their majority, PP may gain a few, Vox may defend their Alava seat but in danger to lose, while the national left-wing could face another Galician scenario as Sumar and Podemos will ran by the own, in this case Sumar may still get sort of representation as the Basque electoral system it's not so harmful like the Galicia one (25 seats in each of the 3 provinces, 3% threshold).

[MRCVzla]

Latest political scandal of the week, probably other posters can detail more
https://twitter.com/guntiiiii/status/1762486294498758962

Meanwhile, the abroad postal votes of the Galician election were counted, no changes after all with a turnout of just 4.8% (22.960 out from 476.000), PSdeG was 70 votes short to gain an additional seat in Ourense.
More details at La Voz de Galicia: https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/ourense/2024/02/26/psoe-quedo-setenta-votos-conseguir-escano-ourense-habra-cambios/00031708970934918724798.htm

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Another day, another mascarillas scandal in Spain. I wonder how many other countries had similar corrupt business practices during the pandemic and haven't been caught... this can't just be a Spain thing.

[Velasco]

Leading party by municipality in the Basque regional elections held in 2020 (repost)

[Velasco]

BNG vote by municipality in the 2020 regional elections

[Flyersfan232]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

[Zinneke]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

Spain has outside of a technicality never had a female PM so one could imagine several of his  impressive  PSOE deputy PMs are his natural successors. But if this experiment fails badly then it'll be someone from the Garcia-Page wing, more deep-statish, possibly more adapted to playing the game of the PP.

[Flyersfan232]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

Spain has outside of a technicality never had a female PM so one could imagine several of his  impressive  PSOE deputy PMs are his natural successors. But if this experiment fails badly then it'll be someone from the Garcia-Page wing, more deep-statish, possibly more adapted to playing the game of the PP.

technicality?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

Spain has outside of a technicality never had a female PM so one could imagine several of his  impressive  PSOE deputy PMs are his natural successors. But if this experiment fails badly then it'll be someone from the Garcia-Page wing, more deep-statish, possibly more adapted to playing the game of the PP.

technicality?

I believe referring to this case?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar%C3%ADa_Teresa_Fern%C3%A1ndez_de_la_Vega#Political_career

Fernández de la Vega was the first woman to take on the functions of the prime minister in the history of Spanish democracy, when, on 24 April 2004, during the first official visit abroad of Spain's Prime Minister, Zapatero, she presided over the Council of Ministers.

[Zinneke]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

Spain has outside of a technicality never had a female PM so one could imagine several of his  impressive  PSOE deputy PMs are his natural successors. But if this experiment fails badly then it'll be someone from the Garcia-Page wing, more deep-statish, possibly more adapted to playing the game of the PP.

technicality?

I believe referring to this case?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar%C3%ADa_Teresa_Fern%C3%A1ndez_de_la_Vega#Political_career

Fernández de la Vega was the first woman to take on the functions of the prime minister in the history of Spanish democracy, when, on 24 April 2004, during the first official visit abroad of Spain's Prime Minister, Zapatero, she presided over the Council of Ministers.

Indeed

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

Spain has outside of a technicality never had a female PM so one could imagine several of his  impressive  PSOE deputy PMs are his natural successors. But if this experiment fails badly then it'll be someone from the Garcia-Page wing, more deep-statish, possibly more adapted to playing the game of the PP.

The thing is, Pedro's deputies and Garcia-Page are all older than he is. Will Sanchez run PSOE throughout the 2020s and past 2030? If so, his successor might be someone who isn't very well known nowadays.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

Spain has outside of a technicality never had a female PM so one could imagine several of his  impressive  PSOE deputy PMs are his natural successors. But if this experiment fails badly then it'll be someone from the Garcia-Page wing, more deep-statish, possibly more adapted to playing the game of the PP.

The thing is, Pedro's deputies and Garcia-Page are all older than he is. Will Sanchez run PSOE throughout the 2020s and past 2030? If so, his successor might be someone who isn't very well known nowadays.

Félix Bolaños? Just spitballing.

[Flyersfan232]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

Spain has outside of a technicality never had a female PM so one could imagine several of his  impressive  PSOE deputy PMs are his natural successors. But if this experiment fails badly then it'll be someone from the Garcia-Page wing, more deep-statish, possibly more adapted to playing the game of the PP.

The thing is, Pedro's deputies and Garcia-Page are all older than he is. Will Sanchez run PSOE throughout the 2020s and past 2030? If so, his successor might be someone who isn't very well known nowadays.

if there a snap election and and the right gain the majority do he have the politically capital to stay on as leader?

[MRCVzla]

Pere Aragonés has called a snap election in Catalonia on May 12 after the regional budget turned down after the Comuns rejected an ammendment about the construction of a Vegas-esque "Hard Rock" recreational and tourist complex, the budget had the support of ERC and PSC. Junts is already planned to launch Puigdemont as lead candidate, depends in how the Amnesty Law would be in force at the moment of the election/candidate list' nominations. PSC is the main favorite to be the most voted list, but pro-independence parties could retain their majority despite the huge infightment there have ERC and Junts to lead the soberanist camp.

At national level, the whole climate is very dirty with PP and PSOE accusing each other of corruption, the PP accusing PSOE over the "Koldo case" about face masks commission contracts, and PSOE accusing PP after was known what Díaz Ayuso' partner could have a similar scandal.

[Flyersfan232]

Pere Aragonés has called a snap election in Catalonia on May 12 after the regional budget turned down after the Comuns rejected an ammendment about the construction of a Vegas-esque "Hard Rock" recreational and tourist complex, the budget had the support of ERC and PSC. Junts is already planned to launch Puigdemont as lead candidate, depends in how the Amnesty Law would be in force at the moment of the election/candidate list' nominations. PSC is the main favorite to be the most voted list, but pro-independence parties could retain their majority despite the huge infightment there have ERC and Junts to lead the soberanist camp.

At national level, the whole climate is very dirty with PP and PSOE accusing each other of corruption, the PP accusing PSOE over the "Koldo case" about face masks commission contracts, and PSOE accusing PP after was known what Díaz Ayuso' partner could have a similar scandal.

what are the odds ofa snap general election  after the euros?

[MRCVzla]

what are the odds ofa snap general election  after the euros?

Well, the first consequence of the snap election call in Catalonia is that Sánchez and his government "resigned" to present this year's Budget, will extend those of 2023 and will prepare for those of 2025, knowing that it needs both ERC and Junts to approve them, the intention is always to "exhaust the legislature" as much as possible.

Today, the Amnesty Law was passed at the Congress with a 178-172 vote, now PP will use its majority at the Senate to delay the process, probably to avoid Puigdemont and other pro-indy politicians who could be benefit from Amnesty to be candidates.

[Flyersfan232]

Who is likely to succeed Sanchez as psoe leader?

Spain has outside of a technicality never had a female PM so one could imagine several of his  impressive  PSOE deputy PMs are his natural successors. But if this experiment fails badly then it'll be someone from the Garcia-Page wing, more deep-statish, possibly more adapted to playing the game of the PP.

The thing is, Pedro's deputies and Garcia-Page are all older than he is. Will Sanchez run PSOE throughout the 2020s and past 2030? If so, his successor might be someone who isn't very well known nowadays.

page is currently 55 he is two years older then oldest guy to ever taken office as prime minister so i dont see age being too much of a issue

[Velasco]

● Former premier Carles Puigdemont recently announced he will be the Junts candidate in the upcoming regional elections in Catalonia, renouncing to top the Junts slate for the EP elections taking place in the following month.  Additionally Puigdemont said he would return from self-imposed exile in Waterloo (Belgium) in case he had chances to preside the Generalitat, that is to say, to be re-elected regional premier through a successful investiture motion. The Amnesty Law is not expected ro be passed before June, because the PP majority in Senate allows a 2 month delay in the parliamentary process. Anyway Puigdemont is confident that amnesty will be in time for a winning return

● PP and Cs failed to reach an agreement and will run separate lists in Catalonia and for the European Parliament. The only option left was that the remaining Cs members would join the "common house of the centre-right", that is the People's Party (PP). Apparently some of the remaining Cs members in Catalonia oppose being absorbed. Additionally it was announced Cs co-founder Juan Carlos Girauta will be placed third in the Vox slate for the EP elections

Last released polls show that pro-independence parties could lose majority and that Cs will disappear

Ipsos/ La Vanguardia

PSC 29 4% 41 seats (+8)
Junts 17.7% 29 seats (-3)
ERC 16.8% 26 seats (-7)
PP 10 8% 15 seats (+12)
CATCOMU 7.7% 9 seats (+1)
VOX 6.4% 8 seats (-3)
CUP 5.4% 7 seats (-2)
Cs 1.8% 0 seats (-6)

Some previous polls pointed that the far-right pro-independence Aliança Catalana (AC, "Catalan Alliance") had some chances of winning seats in the regional parliament

The last Gizaker poll for the Basque Country elections shows that EH Bildu is closing the gap with the PNV, apparently growing at the expense of the left-wing parties

EAJ-PNV 36.0% 27/28 seats
EH BILDU 32 7% 27/28 seats
PSE-EE (PSOE) 14 2% 11 seats
PP 8.3% 7 seats
ELKARREKIN PODEMOS 3.7% 2 seats
SUMAR 2.8% 0 seats
VOX 1.4% 0 seats

[Antonio the Sixth]

Coming back to Spain before the amnesty is frankly brazen and indecorous. Frankly I hope he gets to spend at least a few weeks in jail just to make a point. Still, whatever, amnesty is still the right thing to do in the grand scheme of things.

[Oryxslayer]

Coming back to Spain before the amnesty is frankly brazen and indecorous. Frankly I hope he gets to spend at least a few weeks in jail just to make a point. Still, whatever, amnesty is still the right thing to do in the grand scheme of things.

That's probably the whole point. To bait a seemingly over-the-top response and feed the Junts narratives.

[Velasco]

Coming back to Spain before the amnesty is frankly brazen and indecorous. Frankly I hope he gets to spend at least a few weeks in jail just to make a point. Still, whatever, amnesty is still the right thing to do in the grand scheme of things.

Puigdemont won't return before the amnesty law is passed. He is candidate because there's no legal impediment for that (unlike ERC leader Junqueras,  Puigdemont is neither trialed nor convicted), but he will spend the whole campaign outside Spain. I concur amnesty is the right thing to do, for it allows to reset past errors and restart another political cycle.   Despite its harsh rhetoric and confrontational tactics in presenta day, amnesty will benefit the PP in the mid term opening the possibility for deals with Junts and PNV

As for the Basque Country, I think EH Bildu could govern within four years