Spanish elections and politics IV / European Parliament campaign, diplomatic crisis with Argentina

[Mike88]

With 70% counted, the Independentismo cannot form a government. The "Left", PSC-ERC-Comúns stand at 68 seats, the minimum to reach a majority. If the "Left" fails to reach a majority, PP will be kingmaker.

[Logical]

Don't rule out the possibility of a pro corruption PSC-Junts pact.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Don't underestimate the likelihood of a pro corruption PSC-Junts pact.

I’m fine giving that a very low estimate.

[Oryxslayer]

With 70% counted, the Independentismo cannot form a government. The "Left", PSC-ERC-Comúns stand at 68 seats, the minimum to reach a majority. If the "Left" fails to reach a majority, PP will be kingmaker.

The voters thankfully seem to have averted the return of Puigdemont, though not through his own actions. Rather, the ERC's failures have left them without the votes for a nationalist majority of any type.

Instead though we are approaching the different situation, where the alternative left alliance also lacks the votes. Cause while ERC -> PSC voters killed that initial option, PSC -> PP voters might kill the alternative. Since the ERC would theoretically be also supporting the government, its less likely to be the PP and more likely someone else who offers the votes.

EDIT: and the PP took another allocated seat off the PSC, officially putting PSC+ERC+Comun/Sumar at 67

[Mike88]

With 70% counted, the Independentismo cannot form a government. The "Left", PSC-ERC-Comúns stand at 68 seats, the minimum to reach a majority. If the "Left" fails to reach a majority, PP will be kingmaker.

The voters thankfully seem to have averted the return of Puigdemont, though not through his own actions. Rather, the ERC's failures have left them without the votes for a nationalist majority of any type.

Instead though we are approaching the different situation, where the alternative left alliance also lacks the votes. Cause while ERC -> PSC voters killed that initial option, PSC -> PP voters might kill the alternative. Since the ERC would theoretically be also supporting the government, its less likely to be the PP and more likely someone else who offers the votes.

With the recent update, the PSC loses one seat and PP. wins one The "Left" is now short of a majority by one seat. But, everything os very close, so caution, caution.

Not sure what party would be the "kingmaker" then. CUP is too radical, Aliança ditto, Vox forget it.

[Oryxslayer]

PSC gets a new seat allocated from Junts, which puts the tripartite back as a possibility. Its by 103 votes in Tarragona. These final allocations could potentially change if things remain close.

[kaoras]

PSC gets a new seat allocated from Junts, which puts the tripartite back as a possibility. Its by 103 votes in Tarragona. These final allocations could potentially change if things remain close.

It's in Lleida. And unless the margin grows we will have to wait for the CERA vote.

[Oryxslayer]

PSC gets a new seat allocated from Junts, which puts the tripartite back as a possibility. Its by 103 votes in Tarragona. These final allocations could potentially change if things remain close.

It's in Lleida. And unless the margin grows we will have to wait for the CERA vote.

Oops, thats the one the press showed off immediately after the change. I blame them.

[kaoras]

If the seat count holds, ERC can choose whether to support PSC and get obliterated or go to new elections and get obliterated. Not an enviable position.

[Logical]

CERA vote was overwhelmingly PSC in the last general election. I think it's done.

[jeron]

CERA vote was overwhelmingly PSC in the last general election. I think it's done.

And the gap is growing. Junts is now more than 500 votes from that last seat in Lleida

[Velasco]

PSC gets a new seat allocated from Junts, which puts the tripartite back as a possibility. Its by 103 votes in Tarragona. These final allocations could potentially change if things remain close.

It's in Lleida. And unless the margin grows we will have to wait for the CERA vote.

The PSC is winning the last seats in Lleida and Tarragona by about 500 votes right now

[Velasco]

Pere Aragonès is speaking right now. It depends on ERC whether Salvador Illa is elected premier or we go to a repeat election.

Aragonès says voters placed ERC in the opposition, so ERC wouldn't join a coalition government with PSC and Comuns. He didn't say whether ERC would alliw a PSC minority government,  nor under which conditions.

Puigdemont speaking now...

[Logical]

AC missed the 3% threshold in Barcelona by about 2.5k votes (0.12% of the vote). Had they passed the threshold they would've taken 2 seats, 1 from PSC and 1 from PP.

[Velasco]

Additionally the PSC is increasing the margins in Tarragona and Lleida, so I assume it will finally win 42 seats getting 28% of the vote

[DL]

CERA vote was overwhelmingly PSC in the last general election. I think it's done.

What is the CERA vote? Votes from abroad? Could that allow PSC to take back that close seat from PP?

[Logical]

CERA vote was overwhelmingly PSC in the last general election. I think it's done.

What is the CERA vote? Votes from abroad? Could that allow PSC to take back that close seat from PP?

Expat votes. No there won't be enough votes to overturn a 10k+ advantage.

[Logical]

Another important milestone. This is the first time since 1984 Nationalist parties do not win a majority of seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Another important milestone. This is the first time since 1984 Nationalist parties do not win a majority of seats.

Which is the big surprise of the night, just like the Nationalists winning the popular vote in 2021.


This will assist in the ongoing dissipation of tensions, but I wonder if the process will continue no matter what or if the PP taking power will restore past hostility.

[Zinneke]

Don't rule out the possibility of a pro corruption PSC-Junts pact.

The Hard Rock coalition.

[Mike88]

Results in the big urban centers:

Barcelona:

27.9% PSC (+4.3)
19.7% Junts (+1.8 )
13.8% PP (+8.5)
12.9% ERC (-6.2)
  8.9% Comúns (-0.3)
  6.2% Vox (-0.9)
  4.7% CUP (-2.3)
  2.1% Aliança (new)
  1.0% PACMA (new)
  0.8% C's (-5.5)
  2.0% Others

L'Hospitalet de Llobregat:

42.5% PSC (+3.6)
13.9% PP (+8.6)
10.8% ERC (-4.9)
10.0% Vox (+0.4)
  7.8% Junts (+0.6)
  6.9% Comúns (-2.0)
  2.2% CUP (-1.4)
  1.3% C's (-6.7)
  1.2% PACMA (new)
  1.2% Aliança (new)
  2.2% Others

Terrassa:

30.4% PSC (+4.6)
17.1% Junts (+0.4)
13.3% ERC (-7.6)
11.9% Vox (+2.7)
10.0% PP (+6.6)
  6.0% Comúns (-1.5)
  3.4% CUP (-2.1)
  2.9% Aliança (new)
  1.4% PACMA (new)
  0.9% C's (-5.4)
  2.7% Others

Badalona:

35.1% PSC (+5.0)
15.9% PP (+10.2)
12.8% Junts (+0.8 )
12.3% ERC (-6.6)
  9.0% Vox (-0.8 )
  6.1% Comúns (-1.9)
  2.5% CUP (-3.0)
  1.8% Aliança (new)
  1.4% PACMA (new)
  0.8% C's (-5.9)
  2.3% Others

Sabadell:

32.5% PSC (+5.5)
18.4% Junts (+0.9)
12.9% ERC (-7.2)
  9.9% PP (+6.7)
  8.8% Vox (+0.9)
  6.1% Comúns (-1.7)
  4.0% CUP (-2.2)
  2.6% Aliança (new)
  1.3% PACMA (new)
  1.0% C's (-5.1)
  2.5% Others

Lleida:

25.5% PSC (+4.7)
21.9% Junts (+0.7)
14.6% PP (+9.0)
12.7% ERC (-9.2)
  9.5% Vox (+0.4)
  6.8% Aliança (new)
  3.3% CUP (-2.9)
  2.7% Comúns (-1.6)
  0.6% C's (-4.7)
  2.4% Others

Tarragona:

28.0% PSC (+3.5)
17.8% PP (+10.1)
15.7% Junts (+1.4)
12.4% ERC (-6.5)
11.5% Vox (-0.5)
  4.5% Comúns (-1.3)
  3.8% CUP (-1.8 )
  2.5% Aliança (new)
  1.1% PACMA (new)
  0.7% C's (-6.4)
  2.0% Others

Girona:

36.0% Junts (+3.2)
21.2% PSC (+4.6)
  9.8% ERC (-7.6)
  7.4% PP (+5.0)
  6.3% Aliança (new)
  6.3% Vox (+0.2)
  6.0% CUP (-4.8 )
  3.5% Comúns (-0.9)
  1.0% PACMA (new)
  0.7% Alhora (new)
  0.3% C's (-3.2)
  1.5% Others

[VPH]

What the heck were the voter flows like? Why did Puigdemont's party gain support while the separatist parties on the left lost instead? I guess C's voters probably moved to PP, but I'm having some trouble making sense of this all because I know little about Catalonian politics.

[xelas81]

Don't rule out the possibility of a pro corruption PSC-Junts pact.

The Hard Rock coalition.

Counterpoint. It maybe good that Spain (and China) overbuilds even if some of overbuilding is bad to make up all of the countries that underbuilds.
Second Hard Rock is owned by Seminole tribe.

[Former President tack50]

Don't rule out the possibility of a pro corruption PSC-Junts pact.

The Hard Rock coalition.

Counterpoint. It maybe good that Spain (and China) overbuilds even if some of overbuilding is bad to make up all of the countries that underbuilds.
Second Hard Rock is owned by Seminole tribe.

Spain, much like China, has always been good at construction. Some of the largest non-Chinese construction companies out there are Spanish.

Certainly for insfrastructure, there is a reason why Spain is 2nd in high speed rail for instance. Housing is different as Spain built a ton before the bubble and then just outright stopped

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good news for Catalonia and for Spain. Spanish politics can no longer be held hostage by maximalist lunatics. Hopefully this serves as a wake-up call for nationalists to cut a reasonable deal with Sanchez about increased autonomy and then be quiet about it for at least a decade. If they insist on their all-or-nothing approach they deserve to be further marginalized.