Australian Election Results Thread

[ag]

Ha, the UK would fit into Kalgoorlie (80,773 voters) 9.38 times . Canny bit of red on the map were it Labor

Dave

Not yet. But it is actually getting tighter (it's now tighter than Bennelong) - and there many more ballots than average left to tally. Still, probably, a Lib hold.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ha, the UK would fit into Kalgoorlie (80,773 voters) 9.38 times . Canny bit of red on the map were it Labor

Dave

Hell, all of Nunavut fits into Kalgoorlie!

[ag]

Libs are now ahead in Swan, by the whole of 2 votes!

Swan WA LIB advantage of 2 votes
Bowman QLD LIB advantage of 27 votes
Dickson QLD ALP advantage 234 votes
Macarthur NSW LIB advantage 501 votes
McEwen VIC LIB advantage 506 votes
La Trobe VIC LIB advantage 547 votes
Herbert QLD ALP advantage 560 votes

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Re; aboriginal voters...

For the legally sad: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionTcpByPollingPlace-13745-306.htm

And look at the numbers in the remote mobile teams. Over 98% in two of them.

[Platypus]

Re:Swan. Irons (LIB) is now ahead by 30 votes, with just absentee and provisional results left. In the last election, there were roughly 900 provisional votes and they went strongly to Labor-a trend that would probably be repeated this election as most provisional voters are younger or immigrant.

There were 6000 absentee voters, and a similar number should be expected this election in Swan, based on turnout figures. They also leant towards Labor, but less so than ordinary ballots-by a whole 0.05%. If we assume that the absentee result is the same as the ordinary result, with 6000 ballots; and that there are 900 provisional ballots, 520 of which go to the ALP TPP, the result should look something like this:

Kim Wilkie: 31,853+520=32,373+2995(49.91% of 6000)=35,368
Steve Irons: 31,383+380=31,763+3005(50.09% of 6000)=34,768

So, an ALP win of a nice, even 600 votes.

Of course, it won't be that simple, but i'm giving Labor the lead here.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

At present, Peter Dutton is ahead in Dickson by 12 votes, Laming is ahead in Bowman by 29 votes.

[Platypus]

Let's have a go at the same exercise for Dickson:


Current totals:

Dutton (LIB) 36,791
McNamara (ALP) 36,779

Provisionals 2004
Dutton (LIB) 185 (new total if added to existing 2007 total= 36,976)
McConnell (ALP) 110 (add to McNamara's total=36,889)

Absentee 2004
Dutton (LIB) 2,688 (+36,976=39,664)
McConnell (ALP) 2,062 (+36,889=38,951)

Of course, swing must be factored in, and these results are absolutely not truly indicative, but i'd say Dutton will win narrowly.

And, why not-Bowman:

Current totals:
Laming (LIB) 35,864
Young (ALP) 35,837

Provisionals 2004:

Laming (LIB) 213 (+35,864=36,077)
Webster (ALP) 180 (+35,837=36,017)

Absentee 2004:

Laming (LIB) 1,841 (+36,077=37,918)
Webster (ALP) 1,456 (+36,017=37,473)

Taking into account the swing, I reckon this one will come right down to the wire, maybe with a slight ALP win.

[Silent Hunter]

When will John Howard's seat be done?

[opebo]

Can anyone provide maps or links to maps?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can anyone provide maps or links to maps?

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/map.htm
http://www.smh.com.au/multimedia/federalelection_map/index.html

Various maps of the 2004 election on 2007 boundaries and demographic maps can be found here: http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/maps.shtml

And maps showing the results in each individual booth (ie; precinct) can be found here: http://www.orgburo.com/elections/

It's possible that I might draw some dodgy maps myself at some point.

[Verily]

It seems that the remaining 7 non-reporting booths in Melbourne are "Special Hospital Team" 1-7. Anyone know how those voted in 2004? Melbourne is interesting because the Greens are currently a whole two votes ahead of the Liberals for second.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

When will John Howard's seat be done?

There hasn't been an update of the count since 7pm last night.

[ag]

At present, Peter Dutton is ahead in Dickson by 12 votes, Laming is ahead in Bowman by 29 votes.

Meaning that the 30-vote margin in Swan is, actually, only the third-smallest

[Democratic Hawk]

It seems that the remaining 7 non-reporting booths in Melbourne are "Special Hospital Team" 1-7. Anyone know how those voted in 2004? Melbourne is interesting because the Greens are currently a whole two votes ahead of the Liberals for second.

Seemingly, the Liberals are now 2 votes ahead of the Greens. It's a bit of a shuggy boat this one

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

It seems that the remaining 7 non-reporting booths in Melbourne are "Special Hospital Team" 1-7. Anyone know how those voted in 2004? Melbourne is interesting because the Greens are currently a whole two votes ahead of the Liberals for second.

Here:

1: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-4650.htm

Primary: ALP 14; Lib 12; Dem 1; Green 4 / TPP: ALP 16; Lib 15

2: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-4651.htm

Primary: ALP 25; Lib 14; Dem 1; Green 3 / TPP: ALP 27; Lib 16

3: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-4652.htm

Primary: ALP 15; Lib 10; Green 1 / TPP: ALP 15; Lib 11

4: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-4653.htm

Primary: ALP 64; SA 1; Lib 60; Dem 1; Green 4 / TPP: ALP 69 / Lib 62

5: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-31964.htm

Primary: ALP 49; Lib 25; Dem 2; Green 5; Ind 2; FF 2; CEC 1 / TPP: ALP 56 / Lib 30

6: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-31965.htm

Primary: ALP 9; Lib 1; Green 3; FF 1 / TPP: ALP 13 / Lib 1

7: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-31966.htm

Primary: ALP 24; SA 1; Lib 7; Green 1; FF 1 / TPP: ALP 26; Lib 8

Basically, on 2004, SpHT 1 to 7 not collectively encouraging, for the Greens but given the swing against the Liberals, they should do better. Doubt if it's anywhere near enough, however

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Here's the link to the 2004 Results:

http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/default.htm

Dave

[ag]

Libs have almost caught up in Herbert, and have gone ahead in Dickson. But ALP is back ahead in Bowman - by the tiniest of margins.

Bowman QLD ALP advantage of 21 votes
Swan WA LIB advantage of 29 votes
Herbert QLD ALP advantage of 36 votes
Dickson QLD LIB advantage 248 votes
Solomon NT ALP advantage 427 votes
Macarthur NSW LIB advantage 481 votes
Flynn QLD ALP advantage 590 votes
Robertson ALP advantage 729 votes
La Trobe VIC LIB advantage 741 votes

McEwen is no longer "close" (0.5% swing necessary), but Robertson is now (barely)

Update: the Lib margin in Swan has gone down by 2 votes.
Update 2: Solomon is now also on the list of "close" seats.
Update 3: the Lib margin in Swan looses another vote.
Update 4: Flynn is now also a "close" seat: Nats made-up almost 3000 votes off the postals. Dickson LIB advantage slightly cut, but their advantage in La Trobe is slightly up.

[Democratic Hawk]

Robertson, NSW and McEwen, VIC are no longer considered close with ALP ahead by 928 (50.62%) and Liberals ahead by 862 (50.52%), respectively

Nine seats remain with a swing of 0.5%:

Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 21
Herbert, QLD: ALP ahead by 108
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 153
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 268
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 428
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 590
Macarthur, NSW: LIB ahead by 598
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 730
Corangamite, VIC: ALP ahead by 767

[Tender Branson]

"If I were running al-Qaeda in Iraq, I would be praying as many times as possible for a victory not only for Obama but also for the Democrats." - John Howard

...

Well, he´s got enough time now to pray for Obama and the Democrats ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just had another look at the Bennelong results; McKew appears to have led Howard on first prefs (!) and the Green vote, one of the highest in Sydney in 2004, has almost entirely collapsed.
Also seems that Turnbull polled, just, 50% of first prefs.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The green vote in Bennelong was due to the candidate Andrew Wilke - he was a former intelligence official who revealed that he knew the intelligence surrounding the Iraq War was faulty, and there was political pressure both internal and external.

[Verily]

The green vote in Bennelong was due to the candidate Andrew Wilke - he was a former intelligence official who revealed that he knew the intelligence surrounding the Iraq War was faulty, and there was political pressure both internal and external.

This time, he ran for Senate in Tasmania (but wasn't elected, as he was second on the Greens' list). Of course, some of the Green decline may also be seen as a rally behind McKew by the left to oust Howard, which shows how little even Australians understand their own electoral system. (There was never any risk that the Greens would outpoll the ALP in first preferences; the only seat with a realistic possibility of that happening in the future is Wentworth.)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's more symbolic.

Neither Labor nor the Greens had a chance of winning Bennelong in 2004, but when your seat is competitive - then people will generally make a decision between the big two.

[Democratic Hawk]

Liberals currently ahead of the Greens in Melbourne by 239 votes but with only 69.5% counted, it ain't over yet. Lots of absent ballots et al.

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

When we can we expect all counting to be done and dusted? Am I right in thinking all votes must be cast prior to (pre-poll), on (absent, provisional) or received by (postal) election day?

Dave