LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election
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  LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election  (Read 13603 times)
Kevinstat
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« Reply #25 on: May 03, 2008, 08:47:29 PM »
It's looking like a Republican hold.  Jenkins up by 7.33%, give or take .01%.  Not callable yet though I don't think.

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
54 (10.5%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
5,992 44.53% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
6,978 51.86% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
61 .45% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
372 2.76% Ashley Casey  - 
53 .39% Randall T. Hayes  - 
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #26 on: May 03, 2008, 08:48:06 PM »
6,688    41.16%   "Don" Cazayoux
8,978   55.26%   Louis "Woody" Jenkins
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #27 on: May 03, 2008, 08:49:08 PM »
Quote from: Kevinstat on May 03, 2008, 08:47:29 PM
It's looking like a Republican hold.  Jenkins up by 7.33%, give or take .01%.  Not callable yet though I don't think.

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
54 (10.5%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
5,992 44.53% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
6,978 51.86% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
61 .45% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
372 2.76% Ashley Casey  - 
53 .39% Randall T. Hayes  - 

Woah, woah, woah.. hold on. Neither Baton Rouge Parish has begun to report yet. It's still way too early to call..
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #28 on: May 03, 2008, 08:49:55 PM »
Quote from: HardRCafé on May 03, 2008, 08:48:06 PM
6,688    41.16%   "Don" Cazayoux
8,978   55.26%   Louis "Woody" Jenkins

With 64 (12.5%) of 512 precincts reporting.  Not good for Cazayoux.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #29 on: May 03, 2008, 08:51:01 PM »
Quote from: ChrisFromNJ on May 03, 2008, 08:49:08 PM
Quote from: Kevinstat on May 03, 2008, 08:47:29 PM
It's looking like a Republican hold.  Jenkins up by 7.33%, give or take .01%.  Not callable yet though I don't think.

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
54 (10.5%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
5,992 44.53% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
6,978 51.86% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
61 .45% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
372 2.76% Ashley Casey  - 
53 .39% Randall T. Hayes  - 

Woah, woah, woah.. hold on. Neither Baton Rouge Parish has begun to report yet. It's still way too early to call..

Who's the exitable horse now?
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #30 on: May 03, 2008, 08:51:11 PM »
Quote from: Kevinstat on May 03, 2008, 08:49:55 PM
Quote from: HardRCafé on May 03, 2008, 08:48:06 PM
6,688    41.16%   "Don" Cazayoux
8,978   55.26%   Louis "Woody" Jenkins

With 64 (12.5%) of 512 precincts reporting.  Not good for Cazayoux.

Watch the parish breakdown. Basically nothing from East Baton Rouge Parish, which is the bulk of the district, against a large chunk of 77%-Bush Livingston Parish.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #31 on: May 03, 2008, 08:51:59 PM »
Quote from: Kevinstat on May 03, 2008, 08:49:55 PM
With 64 (12.5%) of 512 precincts reporting.  Not good for Cazayoux.

It boomeranged right back.

9,251    45.77%   "Don" Cazayoux
10,240   50.67%   Louis "Woody" Jenkins
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #32 on: May 03, 2008, 08:53:08 PM »
Cazayoux leads in East Feliciana with 21 of 23 precincts in. It was for Bush by 10%, so a strong result for him.
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Alcon
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« Reply #33 on: May 03, 2008, 08:53:40 PM »
Quote from: Verily on May 03, 2008, 08:53:08 PM
Cazayoux leads in East Feliciana with 21 of 23 precincts in. It was for Bush by 10%, so a strong result for him.

Although since the district as a whole was Bush by nearly 20...
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #34 on: May 03, 2008, 08:54:25 PM »
Jenkins carrying East Baton Rouge right now, but with only 2 of 314 precincts reporting.

I'll admit I was hasty pre-calling the race for Jenkins though.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #35 on: May 03, 2008, 08:55:07 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on May 03, 2008, 08:53:40 PM
Quote from: Verily on May 03, 2008, 08:53:08 PM
Cazayoux leads in East Feliciana with 21 of 23 precincts in. It was for Bush by 10%, so a strong result for him.

Although since the district as a whole was Bush by nearly 20...

True; it all depends on his margin in East Baton Rouge. Livingston is now 45 of 63 in with just 2 of 315 from East Baton Rouge.
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Alcon
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« Reply #36 on: May 03, 2008, 08:55:11 PM »
Yes, this thing isn't at all over, especially since black areas of rural Louisiana historically tend to be slow to count.

Livingston being all in is very, very good for Cazayoux.  It's not an area Democrats improve in even when they do well.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #37 on: May 03, 2008, 08:56:52 PM »
For comparison, Cazayoux is at 70% in West Baton Rouge, which Bush won by 8. (16 of 21 in)
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #38 on: May 03, 2008, 08:59:08 PM »
U. S. Representative, 1st Congressional District
143 (28.3%) of 505 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
3,201 25.45% Gilda Reed  -  
9,111 72.44% "Steve" Scalise  -  
179 1.42% R. A. "Skip" Galan  -  
87 .69% Anthony "Tony G" Gentile  -  

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
178 (34.8%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
16,374 43.90% "Don" Cazayoux  -  
19,337 51.84% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  -  
190 .51% Peter J. Aranyosi  -  
1,250 3.35% Ashley Casey  -  
149 .40% Randall T. Hayes  -  
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #39 on: May 03, 2008, 08:59:59 PM »
16,904    43.73%   "Don" Cazayoux
20,111   52.03%   Louis "Woody" Jenkins
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #40 on: May 03, 2008, 09:01:33 PM »
U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
200 (39.1%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
17,684 44.34% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
20,495 51.39% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
211 .53% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
1,328 3.33% Ashley Casey  - 
162 .41% Randall T. Hayes  - 
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #41 on: May 03, 2008, 09:01:54 PM »
Okay, Livingston is now 61 of 63 in. This should be the peak for Jenkins; the question is how Cazayoux closes.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #42 on: May 03, 2008, 09:02:17 PM »
20,069    43.27%   "Don" Cazayoux
24,227   52.23%   Louis "Woody" Jenkins
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #43 on: May 03, 2008, 09:03:50 PM »
Jenkins is carrying East Baton Rouge Parish.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #44 on: May 03, 2008, 09:04:49 PM »
Quote from: Kevinstat on May 03, 2008, 09:03:50 PM
Jenkins is carrying East Baton Rouge Parish.

Certain areas, certainly. That's no surprise.
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #45 on: May 03, 2008, 09:05:46 PM »
cazayoux winning east feliciana, lberville, pointe coupee, st. helena, west baton rouge, and west feliciana wheras jenkins taking livingston, east baton rouge and ascension
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #46 on: May 03, 2008, 09:06:37 PM »
Past the 50% mark (in terms of precincts reporting, not necessarilly votes):

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #47 on: May 03, 2008, 09:08:36 PM »
THis is very suspicious.  Cazayoux had a nine point lead in yesterdays Survey USA. 
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #48 on: May 03, 2008, 09:09:34 PM »
It's not suspicious, guys, it's reporting patterns in the South. Light!
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #49 on: May 03, 2008, 09:11:00 PM »
cazayoux slightly gaining
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