HI-01

[Holmes]

This was kinda discussed a bit in another topic, but let's have one specifically for this race.

Can Republicans even make this seat competitive? The "front-runner" Republicans seems to be Charles Djou, who has the endorsment of 7 Republican state legislators(which is 100% of them) and Lingle as well. Obama received 70%+ in this district and it's only elected on Republican for 2 years since it's existed.

Rumor has it that Abercrombie's gonna run for governor so it'll probably be open. But I think Republicans are being too optimistic...

[Lunar]

If it's an open seat and the Dems run a Haole, the GOP could pick it up

[Holmes]

Like Ed Case, or out-of-state white guy?

[ottermax]

No. The Hawaii Democratic establishment is powerful and strong. Just look at the state legislature if you want to see the limited number of Republicans the party can choose from. Even if Charles Djou tries his best, there are many candidates the Democrats can propose and even if they are Haole, they will be elected.

[Mr.Phips]

This district is pretty much the mirror image of ID-01.  It will only elect a Republican if Democrats run a crazy, obnoxious, and unlikeable candidate. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Ed Case actually lives in HI-01, although the laws in Hawaii don't require a representative to live in the district they represent. He's made noises about running for something in 2010 (he's up for anything -- Governor, Senator, HI-01 or 02) so I wouldn't be surprised if he ran. There's even precedent for this, even with Hawaii's short electoral history, as Patsy Mink represented the 1st from 65-77 and the 2nd from 91-02.

Anyway, no, unless 2010 is a horrible year for Dems, Djou will probably top out around 40%. Lingle has been terrible at getting other Republicans elected in the state, so I don't think her support would have any effect.

[Vasall des Midas]

Utterly safe D.

[Gravis Marketing]

It's hard to respond to this without loud guffaws and the phrase "foolish mortals."

[So the Heroes Fall]

Anyone notice Lunar seems to have a bit of an obsession with affirmative action in these sort of races?

I'm reminded of him saying Paterson couldn't win the primary in 2010 unless he appointed a minority to Hillary's seat (Paterson may lose anyway, but his appointment of a white woman to the seat is pretty low on the list of why.) or mocking the idea that any white male could be appointed Sec of Commerce after Richardson withdrew (Judd Gregg may not take it, but it was certainly possible).

Abercrombie himself is a white (hence "Haole"), so no reason another can't win.

[Lunar]

Ah, we'll see.  I was talking about an open seat naturally.

Regarding Paterson - I never said that.  I think I was stressing that appointing members of certain groups (Upstate and Women among them) was important for Paterson to gain the factional support to win a tough primary.   I said specifically that he needed appoint a women, an Upstater, or a Hispanic.  Obviously the only two real Hispanics that would be interested in the seat - Nydia and Carrion - found they had other things to do.

And I admit the Gregg thing took me by surprise.  I think a Republican effectively counts as a minority (you do insert them as tokens) though.  Now it looks to be Locke getting the post.

[Verily]

Ah, we'll see.  I was talking about an open seat naturally.

Regarding Paterson - I never said that.  I think I was stressing that appointing members of certain groups (Upstate and Women among them) was important for Paterson to gain the factional support to win a tough primary.   I said specifically that he needed appoint a women, an Upstater, or a Hispanic.  Obviously the only two real Hispanics that would be interested in the seat - Nydia and Carrion - found they had other things to do.

And I admit the Gregg thing took me by surprise.  I think a Republican effectively counts as a minority (you do insert them as tokens) though.  Now it looks to be Locke getting the post.

But, of course, Locke as a minority is totally unimportant. The Asian community has little voting cohesion or organization and is concentrated in states which make it electorally irrelevant. Plus, Obama already had two Asian cabinet members.

[Lunar]

True.  Locke isn't a strategic attempt to win votes but part of a grander scheme of having a visibly diverse candidate.

What's weirdest about your accusations BRTD is why you accuse me of saying Paterson would never choose someone like Gillibrand when I had her as my official prediction since Mid-December.

Remember that I never said a Haole couldn't win HI-01, clearly that'd be a retarded thing to say.  I just think that maybe it'd be compoetitive if the Dems went that way (I don't expect them to) if the mid-term is good GOP year.  HI-01 is <19% White and >54% Asian.

[blagohair.com]

True.  Locke isn't a strategic attempt to win votes but part of a grander scheme of having a visibly diverse candidate.

What's weirdest about your accusations BRTD is why you accuse me of saying Paterson would never choose someone like Gillibrand when I had her as my official prediction since Mid-December.

Remember that I never said a Haole couldn't win HI-01, clearly that'd be a retarded thing to say.  I just think that maybe it'd be compoetitive if the Dems went that way (I don't expect them to) if the mid-term is good GOP year.  HI-01 is <19% White and >54% Asian.

I don't think he's accusing you of anything.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Yeah I don't see the accusation. Just think you way overestimate this stuff. And even if I scoffed at Gillibrand, it wasn't due to being white. I also scoffed at the idea that a minority MUST be appointed in order to win the primary. Honestly I doubt even most minorities care about stuff like that, just Al Sharpton types.

And what great GOP candidate can beat a white Democrat in HI-01? The GOP bench throughout all of Hawaii is simply pathetic to put it mildly.

[ottermax]

Yeah I don't see the accusation. Just think you way overestimate this stuff. And even if I scoffed at Gillibrand, it wasn't due to being white. I also scoffed at the idea that a minority MUST be appointed in order to win the primary. Honestly I doubt even most minorities care about stuff like that, just Al Sharpton types.

And what great GOP candidate can beat a white Democrat in HI-01? The GOP bench throughout all of Hawaii is simply pathetic to put it mildly.

A military man could win. Hawaii has great loyalty to the military.

[Gravis Marketing]

Yeah I don't see the accusation. Just think you way overestimate this stuff. And even if I scoffed at Gillibrand, it wasn't due to being white. I also scoffed at the idea that a minority MUST be appointed in order to win the primary. Honestly I doubt even most minorities care about stuff like that, just Al Sharpton types.

And what great GOP candidate can beat a white Democrat in HI-01? The GOP bench throughout all of Hawaii is simply pathetic to put it mildly.

A military man could win. Hawaii has great loyalty to the military.

Democrats have tried that strategy a million times and it almost never works to overcome partisan trends. When military men won, it wasn't because their military status was a major factor. The worst case of over-hyping I can recall was in the race to replace Joe Scarborough where people thought running a military D vs. a civilian R would make a difference in FL-1.

[ottermax]

Yeah I don't see the accusation. Just think you way overestimate this stuff. And even if I scoffed at Gillibrand, it wasn't due to being white. I also scoffed at the idea that a minority MUST be appointed in order to win the primary. Honestly I doubt even most minorities care about stuff like that, just Al Sharpton types.

And what great GOP candidate can beat a white Democrat in HI-01? The GOP bench throughout all of Hawaii is simply pathetic to put it mildly.

A military man could win. Hawaii has great loyalty to the military.

Democrats have tried that strategy a million times and it almost never works to overcome partisan trends. When military men won, it wasn't because their military status was a major factor. The worst case of over-hyping I can recall was in the race to replace Joe Scarborough where people thought running a military D vs. a civilian R would make a difference in FL-1.

FL-1 is more Republican than HI-1 is Democratic.

[ottermax]

Yeah I don't see the accusation. Just think you way overestimate this stuff. And even if I scoffed at Gillibrand, it wasn't due to being white. I also scoffed at the idea that a minority MUST be appointed in order to win the primary. Honestly I doubt even most minorities care about stuff like that, just Al Sharpton types.

And what great GOP candidate can beat a white Democrat in HI-01? The GOP bench throughout all of Hawaii is simply pathetic to put it mildly.

A military man could win. Hawaii has great loyalty to the military.

Democrats have tried that strategy a million times and it almost never works to overcome partisan trends. When military men won, it wasn't because their military status was a major factor. The worst case of over-hyping I can recall was in the race to replace Joe Scarborough where people thought running a military D vs. a civilian R would make a difference in FL-1.

FL-1 is more Republican than HI-1 is Democratic.

[Erc]

Here's for putting Ed Case back in Congress, if a seat over.

[Gravis Marketing]

FL-1 is more Republican than HI-1 is Democratic.

Sure, but HI-1 is pretty Democratic, and a military strategy is designed to poach Republican voters, not Democratic voters. Even granted Hawaii's unique electorate. GA-8 has a military demographic and is significantly less Democratic than HI-1, but Rick Goddard turned into the Kay Barnes of the Republicans.

I'm not drawing an exact parallel between those districts by I am skeptical it will work.

[Lunar]

Besides, the GOP candidate is already all but declared with an easy route through the primary.

[Vasall des Midas]

Yeah I don't see the accusation. Just think you way overestimate this stuff. And even if I scoffed at Gillibrand, it wasn't due to being white. I also scoffed at the idea that a minority MUST be appointed in order to win the primary. Honestly I doubt even most minorities care about stuff like that, just Al Sharpton types.

And what great GOP candidate can beat a white Democrat in HI-01? The GOP bench throughout all of Hawaii is simply pathetic to put it mildly.

A military man could win. Hawaii has great loyalty to the military.

Maybe a nonwhite military man during a Republican administration.

[Lunar]

Because you know, the REPUBLICANS ARE ALWAYS AT WAR


HEY-OHHHHHHHHHHHH



But seriously, Neil, the current Rep of HI-01 just formally declared he'll run for gov., so, this seat is now open baby!  [obscure reference if you include the Neil]


Now, here are the four Democratic potentials, via Scorecard:  former state House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman, state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa and former state Rep. Brian Schatz.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Safe D. I hope a white is nominated and wins in landslide just so I can laugh at Lunar. Seriously dude, you need to get over the affirmative action thing.

[Lunar]

Uh, dude, I think you need to chill the fuck out.  I only outlined a scenario where it could potentially be competitive.  I expect this race to go Democratic no matter who they nominate.