(ASKED OF REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN PRIMARY/CAUCUS VOTERS WHO ARE PRETTY SURE OR KNOW THEY WILL VOTE)

Q34. If the Republican [primary/caucus] for president were being held in your state today and the candidates were former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, California Congressman Duncan Hunter, Arizona Senator John McCain, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, or Texas Representative Ron Paul for whom would you vote: Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Romney, Thompson or Paul? I could repeat the names if you wish. Well, as of today do you lean more toward Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Romney, Thompson or Paul?

Giuliani 8%
Huckabee 36
Hunter 2
McCain 8
Paul 1
Romney 28
Thompson 10
D/Know 7

About this Poll The Times/Bloomberg Poll was conducted by telephone among adults with landline telephone numbers, and numbers ported to cell phones, in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire. The survey began December 20th through the 23rd , was on hiatus over the 24th and 25th, and resumed on the 26th. Multiple attempts were made to contact each number over the entire survey period.

Since a very small percentage of voting age Iowans attended a caucus in 2004, the Times Poll designed, in consultation with Survey Sampling International, a sample that would yield greater numbers of voters and thus a larger pool of likely caucus goers for analysis. Listed phone numbers in Iowa were randomly sampled at a higher rate than unlisted numbers and the results were weighted into proportion to be representative of the Iowa voting age population statewide. 2,312 adults completed the survey in Iowa, including 2,145 registered voters ( margin of sampling error +/-2), 580 Democratic caucus voters (+/-5) 389 likely Democratic caucus voters (+/-5), 310 Republican caucus voters (+/-6) and 174 likely Republican caucus goers (+/-7).

For this survey, caucus voters in Iowa are those who are either registered to vote or who said they intended to register in order to participate in a Democratic or Republican party caucus. All were screened for their intention to attend such a caucus. For likely voters, vote history was also taken into account, although first time voters were not excluded, and voters were also screened on the intensity of their commitment to attend among other things. The survey was analyzed among the larger groups of primary voters, while likely voter turnout models were utilized in the analysis of the primary elections.