Question Arizona will elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for United States Senate were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Jon Kyl and Democrat Jim Pederson, who would you vote for?

Demographics


In a hypothetical election for United States Senator today, 5/8/06, Arizona voters re-elect Republican Jon Kyl by 52% to 37% over Democrat Jim Pederson, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 570 registered voters conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. The election is in 6 months, on 11/7/06. Since an identical poll released 2/27/06, Kyl has lost 5 points and Pederson has gained 4 points. Kyl's lead is now 15 points, down from 24 in February. Among Independent voters, Kyl had led by 19, now trails by 2. Kyl's lead among women voters has dropped from 21 points to 5 points. Among Moderates, Kyl had led by 1, now trails by 13. Pederson will be Kyl's opponent if he wins the Democratic Primary on 9/12/06.

How this poll was conducted: This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Within the report, you will find: the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted and the news organization(s) that paid for the research. The number of respondents who answered each question and the margin of sampling error for each question are provided. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S.Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Verona, NJ.