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Source: Marist College (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
RJohn McCain*Republican55%piePoll Date: 2016-11-01
DAnn KirkpatrickDemocratic39%Number Polled: 719
-Other-5%Margin of Error: 4%
-Undecided-2%Voter Type: Likely

  * = Incumbent

McCain with Solid Lead in Arizona

 By: leip (--MA) on 2016-11-05 @ 08:51:08

Question:

About this Poll
This survey of 1,120 adults was conducted October 30th through November 1st, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Arizona were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed in English or Spanish by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of Arizona from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. This landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of mobile phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and region, except for race, which is from the 2010 Census. Results are statistically significant within ±2.9 percentage points. There are 948 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.2 percentage points. There are 719 likely voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 Presidential Election based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.

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