Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction States Won

		25 |	36 |	50 |
Dem	21
Rep	15
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		25 |	36 |	50 |
Dem	21
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+5	+7	0	0	0	13	1	14	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-2	-5	-7	11	4	15	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
61	35	26

Comments

Definite Final Prediction !

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 51

Final prediction !

MD being tightest race, followed by NV and MN.

Version: 47

WI, MI, OR, ME -> Strong Dem.

IA -> Lean Dem.

NV -> Lean Rep.

Version: 46

FL -> Lean Rep.

Version: 44

RI -> Dem. (just a feeling)

Version: 43

AK -> Strong

Version: 40

NV, FL -> strong Rep.

MN -> Hatch will win (just for fun)

Version: 39

RI -> Lean Rep. (slightly)

Version: 38

MN,IA -> Toss Up
CO -> Strong Dem

Version: 37

MI, IA -> Lean Dem

Version: 34

AK -> Leans Rep.

Version: 33

RI -> Dem.

Version: 32

CA -> Strong Arnieland

Version: 31

NV, MN -> Toss-Up
IA -> Lean Dem.

Version: 30

MI -> Lean Dem.
RI -> Lean Rep.
AR -> Strong Dem.
OR -> Strong Dem.
AK -> Toss Up

Version: 28

Back to normal ...

Version: 26

IL -> Lean Dem.
MI -> Lean Rep.

Version: 17

PA, OH strong Dem. AL lean Rep.

Version: 16

Alaska to Lean Dem.
Michigan, Florida to Lean Rep.

Version: 15

R.I. -> Dem.

Version: 14

Colorado to Lean Dem.

Version: 13

California -> Dem.
Wisconsin, Illinois -> Lean Dem.

Version: 12

Maine -> Rep.
Georgia -> Leans Rep.

Version: 11

Minnesota is now my biggest problem, because Zogby shows Pawlenty with about 5% ahead, while Rasmussen shows Hatch ahed by about 10%. I see it as a complete toss-up, but i think Hatch will make the race.

In Iowa it´s the same, but i see an advantage for Culver. Thats also the case in Colorado.

Maine and Oregon are close, but for now they stay Democrat. In California and R.I. it´s the opposite way.

Michigan is shifting towards the Reps, as is Florida.

Version: 10

California keeps Arnie, RI Carcieri and Wisconsin Doyle.

Version: 9

Moved Alabama into Strong Republican and Maryland into Toss-Up, because I think it´ll get closer there as the campaign moves on.

Version: 8

Switched Michigan because of new Rasmussen Poll.

Version: 7

Switched Colorado because of the new Rasmussen poll.

Version: 6

Back to Normal

Version: 5

Best Case Scenario Prediction for Democrats - flipped Florida and Michigan to Dems

Version: 4

California, Colorado, Illinois to Dems
Alaska: Tony Knowles vs. Frank Murkowsk (low approval rating) Tossup ? Dem Pick Up ?

Version History

52: 2006-11-07 @ 01:30:18 51: 2006-11-06 @ 11:47:42 50: 2006-11-01 @ 10:23:28 49: 2006-10-31 @ 10:39:10 48: 2006-10-27 @ 02:35:22 47: 2006-10-26 @ 07:55:05 46: 2006-10-23 @ 12:00:09 45: 2006-10-21 @ 02:20:05 44: 2006-10-19 @ 02:46:18 43: 2006-10-12 @ 01:59:17 42: 2006-10-11 @ 09:48:37 41: 2006-10-04 @ 01:25:35 40: 2006-09-27 @ 11:05:58 39: 2006-09-20 @ 04:00:37 38: 2006-09-17 @ 09:33:38 37: 2006-09-15 @ 01:04:32 36: 2006-09-11 @ 06:28:06 35: 2006-09-09 @ 07:50:23 34: 2006-09-07 @ 06:30:42 33: 2006-09-05 @ 09:34:14 32: 2006-08-31 @ 12:10:19 31: 2006-08-28 @ 04:06:31 30: 2006-08-26 @ 07:23:37 29: 2006-08-19 @ 10:15:09 28: 2006-08-16 @ 01:38:00 27: 2006-08-14 @ 10:00:01 26: 2006-08-12 @ 02:39:35 25: 2006-08-08 @ 10:39:43 24: 2006-08-02 @ 09:21:43 23: 2006-08-01 @ 12:02:08 22: 2006-07-31 @ 16:13:17 21: 2006-07-27 @ 03:26:11 20: 2006-07-26 @ 03:34:19 19: 2006-07-25 @ 11:55:04 18: 2006-07-24 @ 07:16:37 17: 2006-07-23 @ 11:49:51 16: 2006-07-16 @ 08:31:09 15: 2006-07-15 @ 01:14:01 14: 2006-07-14 @ 13:07:39 13: 2006-07-13 @ 11:25:23 12: 2006-07-12 @ 09:06:42 11: 2006-06-25 @ 10:38:36 10: 2006-06-22 @ 16:27:49 9: 2006-06-20 @ 01:53:48 8: 2006-06-15 @ 09:23:05 7: 2006-06-08 @ 15:40:41 6: 2006-06-02 @ 14:02:49 5: 2006-05-31 @ 01:09:53 4: 2006-05-30 @ 12:31:27 3: 2006-05-14 @ 06:54:46 2: 2006-05-10 @ 11:23:00 1: 2006-05-07 @ 04:24:43 View Version

Member Comments

 By: Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT) - 2006-11-08 @ 10:57:06

Well, I got MN wrong, but this was pretty demn close.

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 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-08 @ 12:46:16

Minnesota was the biggest surprise for me.

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 By: Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT) - 2006-11-09 @ 01:49:40

And also Rhode Island, I didn´t thought it would come down to 2 points in the end.

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 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-11 @ 11:49:57

I am thinking Pawlenty could be a Presidential contender in 08. One that I would consider supporting as well.

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 By: nini2000 (I-PA) - 2006-11-14 @ 10:03:12

Thanks same for you (minus MN but nice job on the percentages)!

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