Date of Prediction: 2014-09-02 Version:20
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Alaska: Walker/Mallott ticket seems very likely at this point, very powerful against Parnell. <br /> <br /> Michigan/Wisconsin: The Democrats are beginning to pull ahead in these races, still on the fence about them, but I'm putting them in the Democratic column for now.<br /> <br /> Arkansas: Recent polling suggests that the race is tightening between Ross and Hutchinson, even though Pryor isn't doing as well. Moved it from Lean Republican to toss-up.<br /> <br /> Connecticut: Malloy is not a popular governor, he's signed a lot of policies that anger moderates, and his challenger, Foley, seems to be in the lead at the moment. <br /> <br /> Maine: I wish that Michaud would drop out so Cutler could win, but it seems unlikely. Toss-up, even though LePage is a truly terrible governor, Michaud and Cutler are pretty much the same, politically speaking, gives LePage a chance. <br /> <br /> Florida: Rick Scott is a terrible Governor with a terrible record, but he's got a hundred million dollars and he's facing Charlie Crist. Scott wins by three if the election was held today imo. The reason I have it as a tossup is because anything could happen from now until election day. <br /> <br /> Hawaii: Only lean Democratic because Aiona is a very strong Republican candidate, but it's still Hawaii, where only one state Senator is a Republican.
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