Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-04 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	16
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	7
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	0	+6	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+5
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-6	8	1	9	-6
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	22	27	49
Republican	9	40	49
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
48	33	15

Comments

RI, PA, and CT appear to lean Dem and Ind respectfully. Ford has lost the momentum in TN. Webb seems close to pulling it out in VA. ME, WY, IN, UT, and FL appear to be stronger than first thought.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 3

I'm doubting the Dems will win NJ. However, I do believe it is a toss-up. In TN it seems Ford has done well. On election day, it will depend on who gets more middle TN voters to the polls. Ford looks like he could do just that.

Version: 2

Based on recent polls, I have flipped OH and RI. They appear to be too close now

Version: 1

Here we go...

CT: Even though the primary between Lieberman and Lamont was nasty, I believe that Lieberman will get the Indys and GOP votes he needs to win.

MO: Even though the Show-Me State has voted GOP twice in four years, I think the Dems will narrowly win due to the general mood as of present.

MT: Allthough the Abramoff scandal is becoming a passing memory, I believe that folks in MT are tired of the cloud of suspension and will vote Burns out.

VA: Sen. Allen's comments wern't good, but at in core VA is a GOP state. This will carry him though.

OH and MN are tossups, mainly due to the even spilt in both states in favor of the parties.

I hope this is interesting.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate	33/36	23/36	56/72	77.8%	6	9	99	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	17/36	48/72	66.7%	1	1	73	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	3	1	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	41/56	96/112	85.7%	3	14	265	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	19/33	51/66	77.3%	6	3	94	T	343
2010 Senate	34/37	14/37	48/74	64.9%	3	2	265	T	456
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	19	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	31/56	83/112	74.1%	1	6	404	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	1	6	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	6	86	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	31	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	15/33	48/66	72.7%	4	3	207	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	2	0	93	T	312
2004 President	54/56	20/56	74/112	66.1%	6	1	1527	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	409/430	225/430	634/860	73.7%

Links

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