PredictionsEndorse2006 Senatorial Predictions - Inks.LWC (R-MI) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-05 Version:10

Prediction Map
Inks.LWC MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Inks.LWC MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Tos3
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+30+30-1-114216+2
Rep000-30-311112-3
Ind0+1+1000011+1


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic192746
Republican124052
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
473017
piepiepie

Comments

State Previous Current
MD D50S D40L
MI D50L D40L
MT D40L R40T
NE R60S R50S
NJ D40T D40L
OH D40L D50S
TN R40L R50S
UT R70S R60S
WI D60S D70S


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 9

State Previous Current
CT I50L I50S
FL D70S D60S
MN D40L D50S
MO D40T R40T
NJ R40T D40T
OH D40L D50S
PA D50S D40L
RI R40T D50S
TN R50S R40L
VA R50L R40T
WY R60S R70S


Version: 8

State Previous Current
CT I60S I50L
FL D60S D70S
MA D50S D60S
MI D50S D50L
NV R50S R60S
NJ D40L R40T
OH R40T D40L
TN (this was an error—I did not intentionally choose D) D50S R50S
UT R60S R70S
VA R50S R50L
WA D40L D50S
WI D70S D60S


Version: 7

State Previous Current
MA D60S D50S
MN D50S D50L
MO R40T D40T
NE D50S D60S
NV R60S R50S
NJ D40T D40L
OH R40L R40T
RI R40L R40T
TN R40L R50S
UT R70S R60S
VT I70S I60S
WY R70S R60S

I'll add polls later


Version: 6

Changes:
States Previous New
AZ R60S R50S
MA D70S D60S
MN D50L D50S
MT D40T D40L
NJ R40T D40T
ND D70S D50S
OH R50L R40L
TN R50S R40L
VA R60S R50S
WA D50S D40L
____________________________________________
I had added a bunch of polls, and updated the map, and with 2 more polls to go, my internet died. It's 3:34 A.M. so I'm too tired to type all the polls again. I'll do it this afternoon or morning.


Version: 5

Changes made:
State Current Update
AZ R60S R50S
DE D50S D60S
FL D70S D60S
HI D70S D60S
IN R50L R60S
ME R60S R70S
MD D60S D50S
MN D40T D50L
MT D50L D40T
NE D60S D50S
NJ D40T R40T
ND D70S D50S
OH R50S R50L

WI: June 4: Strategic Vision:
Do you approve or disapprove of the State Legislature's job performance? Approve 40% Disapprove 47% Undecided 13%

Do you approve or disapprove of United States Senator Russ Feingold's job performance? Approve 55% Disapprove 32% Undecided 13%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Herb Kohl's job performance? Approve 52% Disapprove 31% Undecided 17%

If the election for United States Senate was held today, and the choices were Herb Kohl, the Democrat or Tommy Thompson, the Republican, whom would you vote for? Tommy Thompson 46% Herb Kohl 42% Undecided 12%

If the election for United States Senate was held today, and the choices were Herb Kohl, the Democrat or Tim Michels, the Republican, whom would you vote for? Herb Kohl 53% Tim Michels 38% Undecided 9%

If the election for United States Senate was held today, and the choices were Herb Kohl, the Democrat or Robert Gerald Lorge, the Republican, whom would you vote for? Herb Kohl 65% Robert Gerald Lorge 25% Undecided 10%

If the election for United States Senate was held today, and the choices were Herb Kohl, the Democrat or Dave Redick, the Republican, whom would you vote for? Herb Kohl 67% Dave Redick 18% Undecided 15%
____________________________________________
NY: June 5: Field Research Corp.:
Clinton (D) 59% Spencer (R) 28%
Clinton (D) 60%McFarland (R) 26%
GOP primary: Spencer 22% McFarland 20% Unsure 45%
____________________________________________
CT: June 6: Quinnipiac Univ.:
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?


Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Approve 56% 66% 49% 57% 57% 55%
Disapprove 32 24 38 30 35 29
DK/NA 13 10 13 13 8 16

MdlSex Toll,Wndm
Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon

Approve 58% 52% 53% 56% 58%
Disapprove 29 38 30 30 31
DK/NA 13 10 17 14 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest
Approve Approve
Jun 8 May 2 Feb 16 Jan 11 Jul 27 Sep 21 Jul 31
2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2000 2003

Approve 56 59 63 62 67 80 51
Disapprove 32 29 25 24 23 14 33
DK/NA 13 12 11 13 11 6 17

Is your opinion of United States Senator Joseph Lieberman favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 48% 59% 40% 49% 51% 44%
Unfavorable 20 14 25 18 23 17
Mixed 26 23 30 26 22 31
Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 4 7 4 8
REFUSED - - - - - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Joseph Lieberman favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 8 May 2 Feb 16 Jan 11 Dec 19 Apr 19 Feb 21
2006 2006 2006 2006 2001 2001 2001

Favorable 48 48 53 53 58 58 59
Unfavorable 20 19 16 14 13 14 14
Mixed 26 25 23 25 21 21 19
Haven't heard enough 6 7 8 8 9 6 7
DK/NA - 1 - - - 1 1

Is your opinion of businessman Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 7% 4% 11% 6% 8% 6%
Unfavorable 8 12 6 7 9 7
Mixed 8 5 10 9 8 9
Hvn't hrd enough 76 79 73 77 75 77
REFUSED - - - 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of businessman Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 8 May 2 Feb 16
2006 2006 2006

Favorable 7 3 2
Unfavorable 8 3 2
Mixed 8 3 3
Hvn't hrd enough 76 90 93
REFUSED - - -

Is your opinion of former state representative Alan Schlesinger favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 3% 5% 2% 2% 3% 2%
Unfavorable 3 3 2 2 4 1
Mixed 7 8 6 9 7 8
Hvn't hrd enough 87 84 90 87 86 88
REFUSED - - - 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of former state representative Alan Schlesinger favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 8 May 2
2006 2006

Favorable 3 3
Unfavorable 3 3
Mixed 7 8
Hvn't hrd enough 87 86
REFUSED - -

If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Lieberman the Democrat and Alan Schlesinger the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Lieberman 68% 60% 78% 66% 68% 67%
Schlesinger 14 25 9 12 15 14
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 4 3
DK/NA 13 12 10 15 10 16

MdlSex Toll,Wndm
Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon

Lieberman 69% 71% 58% 66% 67%
Schlesinger 13 14 23 16 12
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 3 7
DK/NA 15 12 16 13 13
TREND: If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Lieberman the Democrat and Alan Schlesinger the Republican for whom would you vote?
Jun 8 May 2
2006 2006

Lieberman 68 65
Schlesinger 14 14
SMONE ELSE 1 2
WLDN'T VOTE 3 3
DK/NA 13 17

If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Alan Schlesinger the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Lamont 37% 10% 61% 33% 37% 36%
Schlesinger 20 50 5 15 22 18
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 3 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 5 5 8 7 6
DK/NA 34 32 27 40 30 37

MdlSex Toll,Wndm
Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon

Lamont 36% 40% 24% 35% 41%
Schlesinger 24 17 28 21 15
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 6 9 8 4
DK/NA 32 34 38 34 37
TREND: If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Alan Schlesinger the Republican for whom would you vote?
Jun 8 May 2
2006 2006

Lamont 37 25
Schlesinger 20 20
SMONE ELSE 3 4
WLDN'T VOTE 6 6
DK/NA 34 45

If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger the Republican, and Joseph Lieberman running as an independent candidate for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Lamont 18% 3% 33% 15% 19% 17%
Schlesinger 8 22 2 6 9 8
Lieberman 56 58 52 59 57 55
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 2
DK/NA 16 15 12 18 12 18

MdlSex Toll,Wndm
Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon

Lamont 17% 21% 8% 17% 19%
Schlesinger 10 6 10 9 7
Lieberman 57 55 61 57 51
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 3 2 2
DK/NA 15 15 17 14 21
TREND: If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger the Republican, and Joseph Lieberman running as an independent candidate for whom would you vote?
Jun 8 May 2
2006 2006

Lamont 18 13
Schlesinger 8 10
Lieberman 56 56
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2
DK/NA 16 18


Version: 4

OK--I went back to my original idea that Lieberman loses the Dem. nom. in CT because some undecided liberals want a choice come Nov.--they vote against Liberman. But Lieberman on the Ind. ticket allows for more Reps. to vote for him. Some of those toss-up Dems. go to Lieberman, giving him around 60%.


Version: 3

OK, I decided to get rid of my CT scenario--looks like Lieberman's going to get the Dem. nom. there. I realized that I needed to change ME to Rep. (only the Rep. is running as of now?) and NM (same--but w/ Dem.). Also--a new poll for MT:

Survey of 500 Likely Voters-May 11, 2006Jon Tester(D) 48%
Conrad Burns (R) 44%

John Morrison (D) 49%
Conrad Burns (R) 45%

Jon Tester (D) 42%
Bob Keenan (R) 43%

John Morrison (D) 43%
Bob Keenan (R) 41%


Version: 2

I changed some things quite a bit--I looked into the polls and made adjustments as needed. Just a note--the ONLY reason that I think Connecticut will go Indep. is because undecided liberal voters will vote against Lieberman, giving them 2 options to decide on in November, but then I think more will side with Lieberman and he will win. I'd like comments for Connecticut voters.


Version: 1

Just a little note, the only reason I gave Connecticut to the Independents is because I think Joe Lieberman will lose the Dem. primary, but overall will win the election. Please, if anybody thinks I've errored on their state (especiall Connecticut), tell me, because I have little polls to base my decisions on so far.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2023 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 23 74T115
P 2022 Senate 34/35 31/35 65/70 92.9% pie 1 1 3T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 29/36 64/72 88.9% pie 1 1 5T272
P 2021 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 6 1T118
P 2020 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 1 6 179T684
P 2020 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 1 4 44T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 1 6 51T293
P 2019 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 4 14T192
P 2018 Senate 31/35 25/35 56/70 80.0% pie 1 1 42T483
P 2018 Governor 30/36 26/36 56/72 77.8% pie 1 3 94T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 2 40T149
P 2016 President 52/56 35/56 87/112 77.7% pie 2 1 35T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 23/34 54/68 79.4% pie 1 1 6T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 2 1 67T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 11 8T112
P 2014 Senate 33/36 24/36 57/72 79.2% pie 3 5 82T382
P 2014 Governor 29/36 18/36 47/72 65.3% pie 3 1 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 6 17T153
P 2012 President 54/56 46/56 100/112 89.3% pie 7 1 115T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 18/33 48/66 72.7% pie 5 1 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 2 1 51T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 22/52 65/104 62.5% pie 37 - 22T231
P 2011 Governor 3/4 1/4 4/8 50.0% pie 1 332 79T106
P 2010 Senate 34/37 28/37 62/74 83.8% pie 16 0 21T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 27/37 62/74 83.8% pie 8 0 17T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 5 6 1T103
P 2008 President 51/56 45/56 96/112 85.7% pie 32 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 14 1 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 10 1 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 42/52 26/52 68/104 65.4% pie 30 - 20T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 19/49 60/98 61.2% pie 31 - 11T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 4 21 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 10 2 232T465
P 2006 Governor 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 14 1 36T312
P 2004 President 51/56 25/56 76/112 67.9% pie 24 4 1441T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 900/994 637/994 1537/1988 77.3% pie


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