Final Senate prediction. Changes from September’s prediction and explanations for them:

Arizona: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. Pederson seems to be closing the gap. Or maybe not. In any case, a Pederson victory is not ENTIRELY out of the question over here; it’s just a twenty-to-one shot. But hey, miracles do happen. Kyl’s flailing approval rating is cause for slight optimism.

Connecticut: “Tossup” to “Lean I”. In the end, the Joementum beat out the Nedraline. The only thing that can save Lamont now is straight-ticked voters and people who don’t look beyond the second candidate on the ballot. Eerily, I’m not entirely willing to discount either one.

Delaware: “D>50” to “D>60”. No improvement on Carper’s approval rating, but you can’t argue with the election polls.

Florida: “D>50” to “D>60”. Harris is winning the “who does Florida hate more?” contest by unprecidented margins. If you fight hard enough, Katherine, you might just finish with less than 35% of the vote!

Maine: “R>60” to “R>70”. I’m probably gonna regret predicting that a Republican wins reelection in a liberal state by more than 70% of the vote in 2006, but Snowe ain’t your Mama’s Republican. In fact, she’s the Senate’s most popular member, and her approval rating happens to be at a thirteen month high. She’s quite possibly the only Republican in the Senate I’D feel comfortable voting for.

Maryland: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Though the polls haven’t really moved in this race, this just isn’t the year for a Republican takeover of Maryland. Sorry, Mr. Steele; you ran a hell of a campaign.

Massachusetts: “D>70” to “D>60”. This one’s been bothering me for a long time. Call me a fool, but I just don’t see Kennedy breaking 70%. The election polls don’t add up to it, and neither does his approval rating.

Minnesota: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. I’m always reluctant to categorize open seats as strong for anyone, but if any race warrants it, it’s this one. Klobuchar is unstoppable.

“New Jersey: “R>50” to “D>50”. I’d like to say I was foolish for predicting Kean would win given the prevailing national circumstances and New Jersey’s liberalism, but, well, Menendez’s 38% approval rating keeps me in doubt even now.

Ohio: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Speaking of 38% approval ratings: DeWine is basically out for the count; the Republicans have practically admitted it. It’s “lean” because I’m not brave enough to stare down incumbents.

Virginia: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. I didn’t believe it until now, but the GOP’s political superstar of 2000 really IS in trouble. This race and the Missouri race are the two that will decide it all, and though polling is simply too close to call in both cases, I have the Republicans winning both. They can’t hurt me if I have low expectations.

Washington: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. The “Washington as a possible GOP pickup” idea is SO June.

Wyoming: “R>60” to “R>70”. Recent polls show Thomas probably WILL break the 70% mark, but it’ll be by the slimmest of margins.

Changes from last month's prediction and explanations for them:

California: "D>60" to "D>50". It's tough to tell if Feinstein is going to take over 60% of the vote or not, but recent polling numbers and her 53% approval rating indicate she may well fall just short.

Delaware: "D>60" to "D>50". Carper is another case where it's going to be right on the verge of that 60% cusp. He could very well take that 60%+, but since his approval rating currently stands at something like a 2-year low, I'm bumping him down for now.

Florida: "D>60" to "D>50". It hurts me to even consider the fact Harris is gaining momentum, but she sure does seem to be getting a post-primary boost. She'll still go down, but not by the 80% margin she goes down by in my dreams.

Hawaii: "D>70" to "D>60". The margin by which the Dems will win seems pretty dependent on whether Akaka or Case wins the primary. For now, I'm predicting an Akaka victory, and I don't believe he can quite sway 70% of the voters.

Maryland: "Lean D" to "Tossup". Survey USA's latest poll has thrown off a long string of polls showing Cardin taking the seat. I still believe the seat's going to Cardin, I just can't back it up too well. Where's the "slight" confidence rating?

New Jersey: "D>40" to "R>50". Ah, the painful one. Approval ratings and recent polling agree, Menendez's days are numbered.

Pennsylvania: "Tossup" to "Lean D". My reasoning last month was flawed. When polls are being conducted practically daily on a race and not one is showing one candidate ahead, the other's safe. Sayonara, Santorum.

Rhode Island: "R>50" to "D>50". For some reason, I've spent the last few months banking on the theory that if Chafee defeated Laffey, he was safe. Post-primary polling (and, I'll admit, pre-primary polling) shows I was giving the man too much credit.

Tennessee: "Lean R" to "Tossup". Has Tennessee gone competitive battleground on us? Do I dare believe it? Open seats are always tough calls, so I'm left to go by the polling, which is conclusively inconclusive.

Changes from last month's prediction and explanations for them:

Connecticut: "D>60" to "I>40" and "Lean D" to "Tossup". It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out. Any number of things could happen: Lieberman could split the Republican vote, he could split the Democratic vote (probably more likely), he could rack up only the hardcore moderates...and then you have to consider that the Democratic Party will put their considerable funding and efforts behind Lamont, giving him a boost in the home stretch. I think Lamont has a damn good chance of pulling it off, but for now I'm giving it to Lieberman.

Indiana: "R>60" to "R>80". Having only recently woken up and realized Lugar is not going to have a Democratic opponent in this election, I can change my prediction accordingly.

Nevada: "R>60" to "R>50". Ensign is nowhere near as strong as I made him out to be, Still, he'll win by a 10-point margin at the very least.

Ohio: "R>50" to "D>50". Ohio is getting fed up with the Republican party. It's gonna be tight as can be, but I now believe DeWine is going down.

Pennsylvania: "Lean D" to "Tossup". Santorum is catching up. He now has a positive net approval rating and the polls are getting tight. I still believe Casey's the man to bet on, but Santorum holding on can no longer be called a Republican wet dream.

Texas: "R>50" to "R>60". Because sometime around June, I hit the wrong button and bumped Hutchinson down.

Virginia: "Strong R" to "Lean R". It seems that a certain remark has landed Allen in a spot of trouble. He'll bounce back, but he's no longer invincible come November.

Again, only a few changes from last month:

Connecticut: “Strong D” to “Lean D”. There’s really nothing to do with this one but wait and see how it plays out. I’m not sure I believe Lieberman will hold the state if he runs as independent now, but that’s jumping the gun. For now, I’ll rest assured knowing Lieberman’s the worst case scenario from a liberal’s standpoint.

Maryland: “Strong D” to “Lean D”. Maryland isn’t as safe for the Dems as I originally thought. The AP poll that had Cardin and Steele in a tie was a real eye-opener.

Minnesota: “D>40” to “D>50” and “Tossup” to “Lean D”. It’s still not a sure thing, but recent polling is indicating more than ever that Minnesotans will vote Democratic for their senator, if not necessarily for their governor.

Missouri: “R>50” to “R>40”. This has to be the closest of all the Senate races right now. I have Talent winning due nearly to incumbent advantage alone. He also seems to be doing well in the fundraising department, but that doesn’t mean McCaskill won’t be kicking his butt on election day.

Rhode Island: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. It’s hard to believe that just two months ago I thought Rhode Island was a lock for Chafee and that all that “he’s in trouble” talk was overblown nonsense. I still believe he’ll pull it off, but only by the skin of his teeth.

Not much seems to have changed since last month, but the minute changes that have occured seem to favor the Democrats. Changes from last month's prediction and explanations for them:

Delaware: “D>50” to “D>60”. I don’t really know the specifics of this race, so I’m basing this solely on Survey USA’s information that Carper is killing in the polls and mantains a 62% approval rating.

Ohio: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. Although I still don’t believe Brown can quite pull it out, I was obviously hasty in turning Ohio blue in my confidence map last month. It’s worth noting that DeWine’s job approval rating is at the lowest point it’s been at in ages, possibly ever.

Rhode Island: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. You win, polls: I’ll finally admit Chaffee is showing some signs of weakness. That said, I’d still wager good money that he’s not going anywhere.

Wyoming: “R>70” to “R>60”. Though history does have a tendency to repeat itself, I don’t quite see Thomas breaking 70% this year; polling and approval ratings don’t yet support it.

Changes from last month's prediction and explanations for them:

Arizona: “R>60” to “R>50”. Pederson seems to be gaining on Kyl, and I think it’s quite possible that Kyl finish with as little as 55% of the vote. No less than that, though (and in reality, he’ll probably finish with a good deal more).

Delaware: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. I’m not sure why I had any question about Carper in the first place. Maybe my finger slipped.

Minnesota: “D>50” to “D>40”. This race is a big tossup, and with the presence of any remotely viable third party/independent candidate(s), I don’t think either Klobuchar or Kennedy will be able to rack up a majority of the votes. The race still goes to Klobuchar because polling has consistently shown her slightly ahead. Plus, it’s Minnesota.

Nebraska: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. Ben Nelson is just plain safe. If the latest election polls don’t prove it, his 73% approval rating does.

New Jersey: “R>50” to “D>40”. Polling continues to show New Jersey in an absolute deadlock. What do you do in a situation like this? You give it to the incumbent, especially if he’s from the party that has the advantage at the national level. This way, when Menendez wins by a mere 800 votes in November, I can claim I knew it all along.

Ohio: “Tossup” to “Lean R.” Although the latest Rasmussen poll shows Brown beating DeWine, such things as conventional wisdom, nearly every other poll taken on the subject, and net approval ratings put Ohio reasonably safely in DeWine’s corner. For now.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-05 @ 04:43:56

When meejer calls the Virginia incumbent "scum," then you know there is trouble.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-05 @ 04:52:39

I must have missed that one. Definately concur. If even meejer can't stand the guy you know he's in trouble.

 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-05 @ 08:12:27

Excellent summary above. I agree with just about everything.

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