After taking into account the tossups, my overall prediction is the GOP loses only 5 seats, not 6.

Taking into account tossups I predict the GOP will only lose 5 seats not 6 as the raw totals indicate

Taking into account the tossups, overall prediction is 50R/50D&I not 51R/49D&I as the per state summing indicates.

Not quite as significant a shift as in my prediction as the state by state totals indicate. I still belive it will be a 50D/I-50R result, it just is that instead of having 2 Dem and 0 GOP tossups to make it look like a 51D/I-49R as I did last prediction I now have 0 Dem and 3 GOP tossups to make it look like a 49D/I-51R result.

The total is still a bit deceptive. I'm actually predicting:
48 Democrats
50 Republicans
2 Independents
but which one of the predicited Democratic tossups or leans will end up in the GOP column. I can't say.

New prediction made mainly because I had the time to do so. Obviously, the most significant change is MO from lean to tossup.

This past week has things looking grim for the GOP, leading to me predicting for the first time Democratic control of the Senate going by the individual States. However, it's still dependant on both Democratic tossups not tossing, so if I were making an overall prediction, I'd be predicting a tied Senate, not a Democratic one.

Marginally better for the Dems compared to my last prediction as I moved NJ from lean GOP to tossup GOP, but on the other gand Virginia moved froma 40% lean GOP to a 50% lean GOP. I don't see any chance for simple campaigning to affect any of my leans at this point, but a faux pas or other bad news could put the leans in play. If this comes down to the tossups, the Dems have a slim chance of regaining the Senate, but they will need all three to go their way, and I doubt the Dems will bethat lucky.

We could really use some new polls from Tennessee and Virginia. I actually now see a slim 5% chance that the Dems end up in charge of the Senate. While I have Virginia as Leans GOP, it is volatile enough right now that Allen continuing his slide is a real possibility.

Switched New Jersey and Tennesee, for the same net change of 5 seats. Some other minior changes. Degraded my North Dakpta prediction because of the total lack of any recent polling data.

Quickie look at only the more competitive seats while looking for changes. I flipped Missouri to the Dems and kept them winnning New jersey, but by the barest of margins.

Recent polling convinces me that I need to make Missouri even closer than I had, so I'm going from a 50% FOP tossup to a 40% GOP tossup. I'm not ready to stick this one in the Dem column just yet.

Looks like the Rassmunsen poll in Nevada was a blip, so I've moved NV from lean Rep to strong Rep. Also Burns is showing some sign of political life so I've moved MT from strong Dem to lean Dem.

My Maryland and Rhode Island predictions are changable depending on who wins the primaries there, but only to the extent of percentage and confidence.

 By: Aguagon (D-AZ) - 2006-11-09 @ 18:44:44

First place! Congratulations! Whoops, spoke too soon... Last Edit: 2006-11-19 @ 00:24:04

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