Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:39

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	10
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	5
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	0	+5	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+4
Rep	0	0	0	-5	0	-5	9	1	10	-5
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	27	48
Republican	10	40	50
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
56	32	24

Comments

I'm hoping this is right.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 38

OH
PA
RI
MT
MO
VA
MD
TN
NJ
AZ

Version: 36

I am open for comments

Version: 35

I would like everybody who thinks otherwise to give me some constructive criticism. Thank you.

Version: 33

Calcuated map and confidence with a formula:
(.75* Three Poll Average)+ (.1* 2000 Senate Result)+ (.1* Approval Rating)+ (.05* 2004 Preisdential Result)= 2006 Result

Version: 32

Calcuated map and confidence with a formula:
(.75* Three Poll Average)+ (.1* 2000 Senate Result)+ (.1* Approval Rating)+ (.05* 2004 Preisdential Result)= 2006 Result

Version: 31

I updated New Jersey. I think that I should put MO for McCaskill, as intrade has her ahead, but they also have the GOP ahead 70-30.

Version: 30

Here is the swing states in left/right order:
WA MN MI PA MT RI OH MD TN /MO NJ VA CT AZ

Please comment on my prediction.

Version: 29

I am open for comments.

Version: 28

I think that the following Senate races will have an impact on '08:

OH
PA
MO
NJ
TN
VA
CT

Version: 27

I'm still keeping my promise. Tis was just too big a change to not update.

Version: 26

This is going to be my final map until election day, thus explaining to tossups.

Version: 24

please see intrade.com, then click on politics, then click on 2006 Senate races.

Version: 23

Arizona Senate Race
AZ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 7.0 10.0 10.0 223 +3.0
AZ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 88.5 94.0 93.0 178 0
AZ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

California Senate Race
CA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 6 0
CA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 3.9 2.0 2 0
CA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 31.0 33.5 33.5 1627 +2.0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 0.3 0.4 0.4 533 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 65.4 69.9 66.5 2933 -1.6

Delaware Senate Race
DE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 4 0
DE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 4.4 2.0 10 0
DE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Florida Senate Race
FL.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 94.3 98.9 98.9 253 0
FL.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 1.0 5.5 3.0 700 0
FL.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 10 0

Hawaii Senate Race
HI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 10 0
HI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 1.0 24.0 3.0 29 0
HI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Indiana Senate Race
IN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 4.2 3.0 9 0
IN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M 95.8 - 96.0 0 0
IN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Maine Senate Race
ME.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 0.2 5.0 4.0 49 0
ME.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 92.1 99.8 96.0 94 0
ME.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M - 1.0 0.2 0 0

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 75.0 84.0 81.0 330 0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 18.0 24.0 24.0 458 +9.0
MD.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Massachusetts Senate Race
MA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M 96.1 - 97.0 5 0
MA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 4.7 2.0 20 0
MA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 3.1 1.0 0 0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 80.0 88.0 80.0 143 -6.0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 12.0 25.0 13.0 127 0
MI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 82.0 89.5 84.0 174 0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 11.5 18.0 15.0 338 0
MN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Mississippi Senate Race
MS.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 4.9 3.0 45 0
MS.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 54 0
MS.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 44.0 49.0 49.0 480 +6.0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 55.0 60.0 52.0 468 0
MO.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 60.0 70.0 65.0 371 0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 37.0 44.4 37.0 534 0
MT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 0.1 0.1 6 0

Nebraska Senate Race
NE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 90.0 99.9 95.5 193 0
NE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 1.1 10.0 0.8 330 0
NE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 5.0 4.0 0 0

Nevada Senate Race
NV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 10.0 18.0 17.5 218 +7.5
NV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 82.0 91.4 90.0 270 -1.0
NV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 56.5 59.0 59.0 828 +1.0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 41.0 48.0 42.0 733 +1.0
NJ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Mexico Senate Race
NM.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 96.0 99.9 96.0 20 0
NM.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 0.2 4.2 3.0 10 0
NM.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

New York Senate Race
NY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 97.0 98.9 97.0 1768 0
NY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 1.3 4.5 2.0 1340 0
NY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 0.1 5.0 1.0 39 0

North Dakota Senate Race
ND.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M 93.5 - 95.0 100 0
ND.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 7.8 3.0 61 0
ND.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 5.0 2.0 0 0

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 65.0 74.8 74.8 634 +9.8
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 32.0 35.0 32.0 542 -3.0
OH.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 2 0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 79.1 84.8 79.0 818 0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 20.1 21.8 21.8 1279 +0.3
PA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 3 0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 70.0 79.9 75.5 475 0
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 21.0 29.0 22.0 465 0
RI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 1.1 6.5 3.5 547 0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 25.0 33.7 33.7 446 +4.7
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 70.0 76.0 70.0 309 0
TN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Texas Senate Race
TX.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 4.8 3.0 1 0
TX.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 0 0
TX.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Utah Senate Race
UT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 4.1 3.0 2 0
UT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M 95.5 - 96.0 0 0
UT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Vermont Senate Race
VT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 1.0 - 2.0 86 0
VT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 8.0 4.0 92 0
VT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 95.0 94.0 75 0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 20.0 27.8 27.8 334 +15.8
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 73.0 85.0 75.0 185 -12.0
VA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 1 0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 76.0 83.9 80.0 373 0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 20.0 24.0 20.0 597 +4.0
WA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

West Virginia Senate Race
WV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 90.1 - 95.0 115 0
WV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 9.9 4.0 134 0
WV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Wisconsin Senate Race
WI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 91.0 99.8 95.0 61 0
WI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 0.2 9.9 4.0 72 0
WI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Wyoming Senate Race
WY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 3.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

A comment by Olawakandi inspired me to lower my standards of tossups The new standards are:

Tossup >$.20 margin
Lean >$.50 margin

Version: 22

Arizona Senate Race
AZ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 5.0 10.0 7.0 212 0
AZ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 88.5 93.0 93.0 166 0
AZ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

California Senate Race
CA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 6 0
CA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 3.9 2.0 2 0
CA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 28.0 31.5 30.0 1430 -11.0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 0.4 1.5 2.0 491 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 68.5 71.4 73.5 2812 +15.4

Delaware Senate Race
DE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 4 0
DE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 4.4 2.0 10 0
DE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Florida Senate Race
FL.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 94.3 98.9 96.0 251 0
FL.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 1.0 5.8 3.0 700 0
FL.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 10 0

Hawaii Senate Race
HI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 10 0
HI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 1.0 24.0 3.0 29 0
HI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Indiana Senate Race
IN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 4.2 3.0 9 0
IN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M 95.8 - 96.0 0 0
IN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Maine Senate Race
ME.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 0.2 5.0 4.0 49 0
ME.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 92.1 99.8 96.0 94 0
ME.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M - 1.0 0.2
0 0

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 75.0 85.0 81.0 330 0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 16.0 22.0 19.0 430 0
MD.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Massachusetts Senate Race
MA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M 96.1 - 97.0 5 0
MA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 4.7 2.0 20 0
MA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 3.1 1.0 0 0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 80.0 86.0 86.0 136 0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 12.0 - 13.0 127 0
MI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 82.0 89.8 84.0 174 0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 11.1 18.0 15.0 337 0
MN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Mississippi Senate Race
MS.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 4.9 3.0 45 0
MS.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 54 0
MS.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 43.0 50.0 43.0 476 -5.0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 52.0 58.0 52.0 441 0
MO.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 61.0 70.0 65.0 361 0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 36.0 44.4 35.0 514 0
MT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 0.1 0.1 6 0

Nebraska Senate Race
NE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 90.0 99.9 95.5 193 0
NE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 0.1 10.0 0.8 330 0
NE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 5.0 4.0 0 0

Nevada Senate Race
NV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 9.3 10.0 8.0 192 0
NV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 90.0 91.4 91.0 260 0
NV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 55.0 64.0 58.0 794 0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 35.0 45.0 41.0 720 0
NJ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Mexico Senate Race
NM.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 96.0 99.9 96.0 20 0
NM.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 0.2 4.2 3.0 10 0
NM.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

New York Senate Race
NY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 97.0 98.9 97.0 1768 0
NY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 1.3 4.5 2.0 1340 0
NY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 0.1 5.0 1.0 39 0

North Dakota Senate Race
ND.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M 93.5 - 95.0 100 0
ND.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 7.8 3.0 61 0
ND.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 5.0 2.0 0 0

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 65.0 68.0 65.0 620 0
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 32.0 35.0 35.0 517 0
OH.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 2 0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 78.1 80.0 79.0 807 0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 18.5 21.5 21.5 1268 +0.5
PA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 3 0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 70.0 80.0 75.5 475 0
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 20.0 29.0 21.0 435 0
RI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 1.1 6.5 3.5 547 0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 24.0 30.0 25.0 378 -4.0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 70.0 76.0 75.0 309 +5.0
TN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Texas Senate Race
TX.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 4.8 3.0 1 0
TX.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 0 0
TX.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Utah Senate Race
UT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 4.1 3.0 2 0
UT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M 95.5 - 96.0 0 0
UT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Vermont Senate Race
VT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 1.0 - 2.0 86 0
VT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 8.0 4.0 92 0
VT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 95.0 94.0 75 0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 11.5 24.0 12.0 322 0
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 75.0 89.8 87.0 184 0
VA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0
1 0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 76.0 84.0 80.0 373 0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 16.0 25.0 20.0 575 0
WA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

West Virginia Senate Race
WV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 90.1 - 95.0 115 0
WV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 9.9 4.0 134 0
WV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Wisconsin Senate Race
WI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 91.0 99.8 95.0 61 0
WI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 0.2 9.9 4.0 72 0
WI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Wyoming Senate Race
WY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 3.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Aug 18 - 1:10AM BST

Version: 21

Arizona Senate Race
AZ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 5.0 10.0 7.0 212 0
AZ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 90.0 99.0 92.0 156 0
AZ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

California Senate Race
CA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 6 0
CA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 3.9 2.0 2 0
CA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 41.0 46.3 44.0 1355 0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 1.6 3.4 2.0 474 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 55.1 58.5 55.0 2492 0

Delaware Senate Race
DE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 4 0
DE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 4.4 2.0 10 0
DE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Florida Senate Race
FL.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 94.3 98.9 96.0 251 0
FL.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 1.0 5.8 3.0 700 0
FL.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 10 0

Hawaii Senate Race
HI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 10 0
HI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 1.0 4.7 3.5 3 0
HI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Indiana Senate Race
IN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 4.2 3.0 9 0
IN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M 95.8 - 96.0 0 0
IN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Maine Senate Race
ME.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 0.2 5.0 3.5 49 0
ME.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 92.1 99.8 96.0 94 0
ME.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M - 1.0 0.2 0 0

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 66.0 86.0 81.0 330 0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 16.0 22.0 16.0 428 -3.0
MD.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Massachusetts Senate Race
MA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M 96.1 - 97.0 5 0
MA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 4.7 2.0 20 0
MA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 3.1 1.0 0 0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 80.0 88.0 85.0 136 0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 12.0 20.0 11.5 117 0
MI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 5.0 3.5 0 0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 80.0 90.0 84.0 174 0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 14.2 20.0 15.0 332 0
MN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Mississippi Senate Race
MS.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 4.9 3.0 45 0
MS.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 54 0
MS.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 45.0 50.0 48.0 470 0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 50.0 60.0 52.0 441 0
MO.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 61.0 70.0 65.0 351 0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 32.0 40.0 35.0 494 0
MT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 0.1 0.1 6 0

Nebraska Senate Race
NE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 90.0 99.9 95.5 193 0
NE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 0.1 10.0 0.8 330 0
NE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 5.0 4.0 0 0

Nevada Senate Race
NV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 6.0 18.0 19.0 192 0
NV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 82.0 92.0 80.0 240 0
NV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 52.5 59.0 54.0 779 0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 41.0 49.4 45.0 707 0
NJ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Mexico Senate Race
NM.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 96.0 99.9 96.0 20 0
NM.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 0.2 4.2 3.0 10 0
NM.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

New York Senate Race
NY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 96.3 98.9 97.0 1768 0
NY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 1.3 4.5 2.0 1340 0
NY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 0.1 1.0 1.0 29 0

North Dakota Senate Race
ND.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M 93.5 - 95.0 100 0
ND.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 7.8 3.0 61 0
ND.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 5.0 2.0 0 0

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 61.0 68.0 65.0 620 0
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 32.0 40.0 35.0 517 0
OH.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 2 0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 74.0 82.0 79.0 807 -2.0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 18.5 24.0 21.0 1215 +2.0
PA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 3 0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 70.0 80.0 75.5 475 0
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 20.0 30.0 21.0 430 0
RI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 1.1 6.5 3.5 547 0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 25.0 30.0 29.0 372 0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 70.0 75.0 70.0 304 0
TN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Texas Senate Race
TX.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 4.8 3.0 1 0
TX.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 0 0
TX.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Utah Senate Race
UT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 4.1 3.0 2 0
UT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M 95.5 - 96.0 0 0
UT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Vermont Senate Race
VT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 1.0 - 2.0 86 0
VT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 8.0 4.0 92 0
VT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 95.0 94.0 75 0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 15.0 24.0 10.0 312 0
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 65.0 95.0 89.0 174 0
VA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 1 0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 80.0 90.0 85.0 373 0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 13.7 29.9 15.0 562 0
WA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

West Virginia Senate Race
WV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 90.1 - 95.0 115 0
WV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 9.9 5.0 134 0
WV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Wisconsin Senate Race
WI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 91.0 99.8 95.0 61 0
WI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 0.2 9.9 5.0 72 0
WI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Wyoming Senate Race
WY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 3.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Aug 15 - 6:40PM BST

Version: 20

Arizona Senate Race
AZ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 5.0 10.0 7.0 212 0
AZ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 90.0 99.0 98.0 156 0
AZ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

California Senate Race
CA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M 96.0 - 99.0 6 0
CA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 3.9 2.0 2 0
CA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 44.0 47.0 44.0 1339 -4.0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 3.3 3.4 3.3 447 -0.3
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 53.2 53.9 53.0 2308 +2.7

Delaware Senate Race
DE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M 96.0 - 99.0 4 0
DE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 4.4 4.0 10 0
DE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 5.0 2.0 0 0

Florida Senate Race
FL.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 94.3 98.9 96.0 251 0
FL.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 1.1 5.8 1.5 700 0
FL.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 10 0

Hawaii Senate Race
HI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 95.2 - 98.0 10 0
HI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 1.0 4.7 3.5 3 0
HI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M - 5.0 3.0 0 0

Indiana Senate Race
IN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 4.2 4.0 9 0
IN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M 95.8 - 99.0 0 0
IN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 5.0 4.0 0 0

Maine Senate Race
ME.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 0.2 5.0 3.5 49 0
ME.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 92.1 99.8 96.0 94 0
ME.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M - 1.0 0.2
0 0

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 66.0 86.0 81.0 330 0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 12.5 22.0 15.0 426 -3.0
MD.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Massachusetts Senate Race
MA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M 96.1 - 98.5 5 0
MA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 4.7 4.5 20 0
MA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 3.1 3.0 0 0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 80.0 90.0 85.0 136 0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 10.0 11.9 11.5 97 0
MI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 5.0 3.5 0 0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 80.0 90.0 85.0 174 0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 11.0 20.0 18.5 332 0
MN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M - 2.0 1.5 0 0

Mississippi Senate Race
MS.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 4.9 4.5 45 0
MS.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M 95.3 - 97.0 54 0
MS.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 5.0 3.5 0 0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 43.0 50.0 50.0 468 0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 50.0 60.0 60.0 441 0
MO.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 61.0 76.0 65.0 348 0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 24.0 38.0 36.0 493 0
MT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 0.1 0.1 6 0

Nebraska Senate Race
NE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 90.0 99.9 95.5 193 0
NE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 0.1 10.0 0.8 330 0
NE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 5.0 5.0 0 0

Nevada Senate Race
NV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 6.0 20.0 20.0 192 0
NV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 80.0 92.0 80.0 240 0
NV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M - 2.0 2.0 0 0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 58.0 73.5 62.5 759 0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 26.5 37.0 40.0 659 0
NJ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M - 2.0 2.0 0 0

New Mexico Senate Race
NM.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 96.0 99.9 99.0 20 0
NM.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 0.2 4.2 4.0 10 0
NM.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

New York Senate Race
NY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 96.3 99.0 99.0 1768 0
NY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 1.3 4.5 4.0 1340 0
NY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 0.1 1.0 1.0 29 0

North Dakota Senate Race
ND.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M 93.5 - 99.0 100 0
ND.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 7.8 7.0 61 0
ND.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 5.0 4.0 0 0

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 61.0 69.5 69.5 620 0
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 25.1 40.0 35.5 517 0
OH.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 2 0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 80.0 82.0 82.0 784 0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 18.0 19.0 18.5 1097 0
PA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 3 0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 70.0 80.0 75.5 475 0
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 20.0 30.0 25.5 430 0
RI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 1.1 6.5 3.5 547 0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 20.0 30.0 30.0 372 0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 70.0 79.9 70.0 304 -5.5
TN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Texas Senate Race
TX.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 4.8 4.0 1 0
TX.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M 95.3 - 97.5 0 0
TX.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 5.0 4.5 0 0

Utah Senate Race
UT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 4.1 4.0 2 0
UT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M 95.5 - 98.0 0 0
UT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 5.0 3.5 0 0

Vermont Senate Race
VT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 1.0 - 6.5 86 0
VT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 8.0 8.0 92 0
VT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 95.0 95.0 75 0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 6.0 15.0 12.5 298 0
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 85.0 95.0 90.0 155 0
VA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.5 1 0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 80.0 90.0 90.0 373 0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 10.0 29.9 21.0 562 +6.0
WA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

West Virginia Senate Race
WV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 90.1 - 95.0 115 0
WV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 9.9 5.0 134 0
WV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Wisconsin Senate Race
WI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 91.0 99.8 95.0 61 0
WI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 0.2 9.9 5.0 72 0
WI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Wyoming Senate Race
WY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 5.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M 95.0 - 99.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Aug 14 - 2:38AM BST

I will now order all the swing states based on their vulnerability:
*PA
*MT
*RI
*OH
*CT
*NJ
*MO
*TN
*MN
*MD
*WA
*VA
*NV

Version: 19

Arizona Senate Race
AZ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 5.0 10.0 8.0 212 0
AZ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 90.0 99.0 92.0 156 0
AZ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

California Senate Race
CA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 6 0
CA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 3.9 2.0 2 0
CA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 46.0 48.0 48.6 646 -14.4
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 1.1 5.0 5.0 324 +3.0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 53.0 53.5 53.0 1171 +18.0

Delaware Senate Race
DE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 4 0
DE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 4.4 2.0 10 0
DE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Florida Senate Race
FL.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 94.3 98.9 95.0 251 0
FL.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 3.2 5.8 4.0 613 0
FL.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 10 0

Hawaii Senate Race
HI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 95.1 - 96.0 10 0
HI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 1.0 4.7 3.0 3 0
HI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M - 5.0 1.0
0 0

Indiana Senate Race
IN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 4.2 3.0 9 0
IN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M 95.6 - 96.0 0 0
IN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Maine Senate Race
ME.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 0.2 5.0 3.0 49 0
ME.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 92.1 99.8 95.0 94 -1.0
ME.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M - 1.0 1.0 0 0

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 75.0 85.0 80.0 295 0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 16.0 23.0 19.0 386 0
MD.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Massachusetts Senate Race
MA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 5 0
MA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 4.7 2.0 20 0
MA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 3.1 1.0 0 0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - - 91.0 136 0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 3.0 10.0 8.0 97 0
MI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 76.0 84.0 80.0 174 0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 17.0 25.0 20.0 322 0
MN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Mississippi Senate Race
MS.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 4.9 3.0 45 0
MS.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 54 0
MS.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 38.0 55.0 40.0 467 0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 55.0 62.0 59.0 433 0
MO.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 49.0 70.0 70.0 317 -5.0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 30.0 35.0 35.0 467 +10.0
MT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Nebraska Senate Race
NE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 90.0 99.9 91.0 193 0
NE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 0.1 10.0 8.0 330 0
NE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0

Nevada Senate Race
NV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 7.0 - 8.0 166 0
NV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 90.5 92.0 90.5 210 -0.5
NV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 51.1 60.0 58.0 726 +3.0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 30.0 40.0 40.0 626 -4.0
NJ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Mexico Senate Race
NM.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 95.5 99.9 96.0 20 0
NM.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 0.2 4.2 3.0 10 0
NM.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

New York Senate Race
NY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 96.0 97.9 97.0 1768 0
NY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 1.6 4.5 3.0 1340 0
NY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 0.1 1.0 0.1 29 0

North Dakota Senate Race
ND.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M 93.5 - 95.0 100 0
ND.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 7.8 4.0 61 0
ND.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 66.0 67.9 67.9 581 +2.9
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 30.5 40.0 39.9 497 +5.9
OH.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 2 0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 81.0 84.9 85.0 776 0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 18.0 20.0 20.0 1093 +5.0
PA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 3 0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 65.5 70.0 70.0 437 +5.0
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 31.0 34.0 33.0 405 0
RI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 1.1 6.5 2.0 457 0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 20.0 27.0 27.0 364 +2.0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 65.1 79.9 70.0 303 -4.0
TN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Texas Senate Race
TX.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 4.8 4.0 1 0
TX.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 0 0
TX.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Utah Senate Race
UT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 4.1 3.0 2 0
UT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M 95.5 - 96.0 0 0
UT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 5.0 1.0
0 0

Vermont Senate Race
VT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 1.1 5.0 2.0 76 0
VT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 10.0 2.0 92 0
VT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 69 0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 6.0 15.0 6.0 298 -6.0
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 87.0 95.0 86.0 155 0
VA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 1 0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 76.0 - 85.0 372 0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 12.2 21.0 14.0 542 0
WA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

West Virginia Senate Race
WV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 90.1 95.0 92.0 105 0
WV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 6.0 9.9 7.0 104 0
WV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Wisconsin Senate Race
WI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 91.0 99.8 95.0 61 0
WI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 0.2 9.9 5.0 72 0
WI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Wyoming Senate Race
WY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 3.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Aug 10 - 2:48AM BST

Version: 18

Arizona Senate Race
AZ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 1.0 10.0 9.5 212 0
AZ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 91.0 99.0 90.0 156 0
AZ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

California Senate Race
CA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M 96.0 - 96.0 6 0
CA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 3.9 3.0 2 0
CA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 56.8 69.9 69.9 333 +13.1
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 2.0 6.0 5.5 110 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 30.0 40.1 32.1 561 -8.0

Delaware Senate Race
DE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 4 0
DE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 4.4 2.0 10 0
DE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Florida Senate Race
FL.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 94.3 98.9 95.0 251 0
FL.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 3.0 5.8 3.0 613 0
FL.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 10 0

Hawaii Senate Race
HI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 95.1 - 96.0 10 0
HI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 1.0 4.7 3.0 3 0
HI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Indiana Senate Race
IN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 4.2 3.0 9 0
IN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M 95.6 - 96.0 0 0
IN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Maine Senate Race
ME.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 0.2 5.0 3.0 49 0
ME.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 95.3 99.8 96.0 81 0
ME.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M - 1.0 1.0 0 0

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 75.0 85.0 80.0 292 0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 15.0 25.0 16.0 386 -4.0
MD.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Massachusetts Senate Race
MA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M 96.0 - 96.0 5 0
MA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 4.7 3.0 20 0
MA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 3.1 1.0 0 0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 90.0 - 92.0 89 0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 3.0 10.0 8.0 97 0
MI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 70.0 - 80.0 174 +9.0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 16.4 29.9 20.0 321 -0.1
MN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Mississippi Senate Race
MS.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 4.9 3.0 45 0
MS.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 54 0
MS.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 41.1 45.0 38.0 430 0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 57.5 59.9 62.0 404 0
MO.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 65.0 79.4 79.4 300 0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 18.1 33.0 25.0 435 0
MT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Nebraska Senate Race
NE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 90.0 99.9 90.0 193 0
NE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 0.1 10.0 10.0 330 0
NE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0

Nevada Senate Race
NV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 7.0 10.0 9.0 157 0
NV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 90.5 95.0 94.5 200 0
NV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M - 2.0 1.0
0 0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 50.0 57.0 55.0 662 0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 43.0 50.0 45.0 545 0
NJ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Mexico Senate Race
NM.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 95.5 99.9 96.0 20 0
NM.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 0.2 4.2 3.0 10 0
NM.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

New York Senate Race
NY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 95.8 99.0 95.8 1768 0
NY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 1.3 4.5 2.0 1340 0
NY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 0.1 1.0 0.1 29 0

North Dakota Senate Race
ND.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M 93.5 - 95.0 100 0
ND.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 7.8 4.0 61 0
ND.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 60.0 63.7 63.6 555 0
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 37.2 39.9 40.2 456 0
OH.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 81.0 89.0 89.0 773 0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 11.0 19.8 11.0 1023 0
PA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 2 0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 55.0 60.0 60.0 423 +2.5
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 36.1 41.0 43.0 369 0
RI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 1.1 6.5 2.0 450 0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 28.7 33.9 25.1 332 0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 65.1 74.9 74.0 273 0
TN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Texas Senate Race
TX.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 4.8 4.0 1 0
TX.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 0 0
TX.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0

Utah Senate Race
UT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 4.1 3.0 2 0
UT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M 95.5 - 96.0 0 0
UT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Vermont Senate Race
VT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 1.1 5.0 2.0 76 0
VT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 10.0 2.0 92 0
VT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 69 0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 5.0 15.0 12.0 293 0
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 85.0 95.0 88.0 155 0
VA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 80.0 90.0 84.0 362 0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 12.2 29.9 15.0 532 0
WA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

West Virginia Senate Race
WV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 90.1 95.0 92.0 105 0
WV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 5.0 9.9 7.0 104 0
WV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 West
Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Wisconsin Senate Race
WI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 90.1 99.8 95.0 61 0
WI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 0.2 9.9 5.0 72 0
WI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Wyoming Senate Race
WY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 3.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Aug 05 - 7:34PM BST

The CT primary is today and my prediction is Lamont wins the primary and the general.

Version: 17

Arizona Senate Race
AZ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 1.0 10.0 9.5 212 0
AZ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 91.0 99.0 90.0 156 0
AZ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

California Senate Race
CA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M 96.0 - 96.0 6 0
CA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 3.9 3.0 2 0
CA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 56.8 69.9 69.9 333 +13.1
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 2.0 6.0 5.5 110 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 30.0 40.1 32.1 561 -8.0

Delaware Senate Race
DE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 4 0
DE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 4.4 2.0 10 0
DE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Florida Senate Race
FL.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 94.3 98.9 95.0 251 0
FL.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 3.0 5.8 3.0 613 0
FL.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 10 0

Hawaii Senate Race
HI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 95.1 - 96.0 10 0
HI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 1.0 4.7 3.0 3 0
HI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Indiana Senate Race
IN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 4.2 3.0 9 0
IN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M 95.6 - 96.0 0 0
IN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Maine Senate Race
ME.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 0.2 5.0 3.0 49 0
ME.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 95.3 99.8 96.0 81 0
ME.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M - 1.0 1.0 0 0

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 75.0 85.0 80.0 292 0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 15.0 25.0 16.0 386 -4.0
MD.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Massachusetts Senate Race
MA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M 96.0 - 96.0 5 0
MA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 4.7 3.0 20 0
MA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 3.1 1.0 0 0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 90.0 - 92.0 89 0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 3.0 10.0 8.0 97 0
MI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 70.0 - 80.0 174 +9.0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 16.4 29.9 20.0 321 -0.1
MN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Mississippi Senate Race
MS.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 4.9 3.0 45 0
MS.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 54 0
MS.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 41.1 45.0 38.0 430 0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 57.5 59.9 62.0 404 0
MO.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 65.0 79.4 79.4 300 0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 18.1 33.0 25.0 435 0
MT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Nebraska Senate Race
NE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 90.0 99.9 90.0 193 0
NE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 0.1 10.0 10.0 330 0
NE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0

Nevada Senate Race
NV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 7.0 10.0 9.0 157 0
NV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 90.5 95.0 94.5 200 0
NV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M - 2.0 1.0
0 0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 50.0 57.0 55.0 662 0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 43.0 50.0 45.0 545 0
NJ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Mexico Senate Race
NM.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 95.5 99.9 96.0 20 0
NM.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 0.2 4.2 3.0 10 0
NM.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

New York Senate Race
NY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 95.8 99.0 95.8 1768 0
NY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 1.3 4.5 2.0 1340 0
NY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 0.1 1.0 0.1 29 0

North Dakota Senate Race
ND.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M 93.5 - 95.0 100 0
ND.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 7.8 4.0 61 0
ND.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 60.0 63.7 63.6 555 0
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 37.2 39.9 40.2 456 0
OH.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 81.0 89.0 89.0 773 0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 11.0 19.8 11.0 1023 0
PA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 2 0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 55.0 60.0 60.0 423 +2.5
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 36.1 41.0 43.0 369 0
RI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 1.1 6.5 2.0 450 0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 28.7 33.9 25.1 332 0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 65.1 74.9 74.0 273 0
TN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Texas Senate Race
TX.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 4.8 4.0 1 0
TX.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 0 0
TX.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0

Utah Senate Race
UT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 4.1 3.0 2 0
UT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M 95.5 - 96.0 0 0
UT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Vermont Senate Race
VT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 1.1 5.0 2.0 76 0
VT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 10.0 2.0 92 0
VT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 69 0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 5.0 15.0 12.0 293 0
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 85.0 95.0 88.0 155 0
VA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 80.0 90.0 84.0 362 0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 12.2 29.9 15.0 532 0
WA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

West Virginia Senate Race
WV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 90.1 95.0 92.0 105 0
WV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 5.0 9.9 7.0 104 0
WV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 West
Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Wisconsin Senate Race
WI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 90.1 99.8 95.0 61 0
WI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 0.2 9.9 5.0 72 0
WI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Wyoming Senate Race
WY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 3.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Aug 05 - 7:34PM BST

The CT primary is tommorow and my prediction is Lamont wins the primary and the general.

Version: 16

Arizona Senate Race
AZ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 1.0 10.0 9.5 212 0
AZ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 90.0 99.0 90.0 156 0
AZ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

California Senate Race
CA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M 96.0 - 96.0 6 0
CA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 3.9 3.0 2 0
CA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 40.0 56.9 59.0 278 -7.0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 2.0 6.0 3.0 100 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 44.0 50.0 50.0 460 +19.0

Delaware Senate Race
DE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 4 0
DE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 4.4 2.0 10 0
DE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Florida Senate Race
FL.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 94.3 98.9 95.0 251 0
FL.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 1.5 5.8 3.0 613 0
FL.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 10 0

Hawaii Senate Race
HI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 95.1 - 96.0 10 0
HI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 1.0 4.7 3.0 3 0
HI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Indiana Senate Race
IN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 4.2 3.0 9 0
IN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M 95.6 - 96.0 0 0
IN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Maine Senate Race
ME.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 0.2 5.0 3.0 49 0
ME.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 95.3 99.8 96.0 81 0
ME.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M - 1.0 1.0 0 0

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 75.0 85.0 80.0 292 0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 16.0 25.0 20.0 376 0
MD.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Massachusetts Senate Race
MA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M 96.0 - 96.0 5 0
MA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 4.7 3.0 20 0
MA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 3.1 1.0 0 0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 90.0 - 92.0 89 0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 10.0 8.0 97 0
MI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 70.0 80.0 71.0 154 0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 20.0 29.9 20.0 296 -8.0
MN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Mississippi Senate Race
MS.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 4.9 3.0 45 0
MS.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 54 0
MS.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 41.0 45.0 38.0 430 0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 55.0 60.0 62.0 404 0
MO.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 65.0 79.4 79.4 300 +4.4
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 25.0 33.0 25.0 425 0
MT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Nebraska Senate Race
NE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 90.0 99.9 90.0 193 0
NE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 0.1 10.0 10.0 330 0
NE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0

Nevada Senate Race
NV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 7.0 10.0 9.0 157 +3.5
NV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 90.5 95.0 94.5 200 0
NV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 50.0 55.0 55.0 656 -4.5
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 45.0 50.0 50.0 540 +9.5
NJ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Mexico Senate Race
NM.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 95.5 99.9 96.0 20 0
NM.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 0.2 4.2 3.0 10 0
NM.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

New York Senate Race
NY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 95.8 99.0 98.0 1763 0
NY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 1.2 4.5 2.0 1340 0
NY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 0.1 1.0 0.1 29 0

North Dakota Senate Race
ND.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M 93.5 - 95.0 100 0
ND.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 7.8 4.0 61 0
ND.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 60.0 63.7 63.6 555 +3.7
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 37.2 39.9 40.2 456 0
OH.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 81.0 89.9 89.0 773 0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 11.0 19.8 11.0 1023 0
PA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 2 0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 55.0 60.0 57.5 413 +2.5
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 36.0 44.9 43.0 369 0
RI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 1.1 3.0 2.0 450 0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 30.0 33.9 30.0 307 +4.0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 65.1 74.0 73.0 266 0
TN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Texas Senate Race
TX.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 4.8 4.0 1 0
TX.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 0 0
TX.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0

Utah Senate Race
UT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 4.1 3.0 2 0
UT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M 95.5 - 96.0 0 0
UT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Vermont Senate Race
VT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 1.1 5.0 2.0 76 0
VT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 10.0 2.0 92 0
VT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 69 0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 5.0 15.0 12.0 293 0
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 85.0 95.0 88.0 155 0
VA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 80.0 84.0 80.0 347 0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 15.0 29.9 20.0 522 0
WA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

West Virginia Senate Race
WV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 90.1 95.0 92.0 105 0
WV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 5.0 9.9 7.0 104 0
WV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Wisconsin Senate Race
WI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 90.1 99.8 95.0 61 0
WI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 0.2 9.9 5.0 72 0
WI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Wyoming Senate Race
WY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 3.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Aug 03 - 7:25PM BST

The following concerns the Connecticut Race:
Here are the bets for the Connecticut Primary:
Connecticut Democratic primary for Senate 2006
CT.DEM.LIEBERMAN
Joe Lieberman to Win M 15.0 24.9 15.0 829 -29.0
CT.DEM.LAMONT
Ned Lamont to Win M 79.0 84.9 84.9 650 +28.9
CT.DEM.FIELD
The Field (Any Other Candidate) to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
Now, here are the bets for the general election:
Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 40.0 56.9 59.0 278 -7.0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 2.0 6.0 3.0 100 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 44.0 50.0 50.0 460 +19.0

Now were left with four possibilities:
1. Lamont wins
2. Lieberman wins as a Democrat
3. Lieberman wins as an Independent
4. Weiker wins

The probability of Lamont winning is the probability that he wins the primary*the probability that a Democrat wins the election. That equals .849*.59=.50091

The probability of Lieberman winning as a Democrat is the probability that he wins the primary*the probability that a Democrat wins the election. That is .15*.59=.0885

The probability of Lieberman winning as an independent is the probability that he loses the primary*the probability that an Independent wins the election. That is .849*.5=.4245

The probability of Weiker winning is the probability that Leiberman wins the primary*the probability that an Independent wins the election. That is .15*.5=.075

If we were to put this in a table, it would look like this:

Lamont .50091
Lieberman (I) .4245
Lieberman (D) .0885
Weiker .075

Judging by this table, Lamont will probably win, but we can't say for sure. I will now make a non-partisan table to try to offset the uncertainty:

Lieberman .513
Lamont .50091
Weiker .075

Judging by this, the race is probably a tossup. I would guess Lamont wins both the primary and the election until people trade otherwise.

Version: 15

Arizona Senate Race
AZ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 1.0 10.0 9.5 212 0
AZ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 90.0 99.0 90.0 156 0
AZ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

California Senate Race
CA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M 96.0 - 96.0 6 0
CA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 3.9 3.0 2 0
CA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 57.1 86.8 70.0 246 +4.0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 1.1 6.0 3.0 95 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 30.1 70.0 34.4 366 +3.4

Delaware Senate Race
DE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 4 0
DE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 4.4 2.0 10 0
DE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Florida Senate Race
FL.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 94.3 98.9 95.0 251 0
FL.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 1.1 5.8 3.0 613 -1.0
FL.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 10 0

Hawaii Senate Race
HI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 95.1 - 96.0 10 0
HI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 1.0 4.7 3.0 3 0
HI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Indiana Senate Race
IN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 4.2 3.0 9 0
IN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M 95.6 - 96.0 0 0
IN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Maine Senate Race
ME.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 0.2 5.0 3.0 49 0
ME.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 95.3 99.8 95.3 81 -0.7
ME.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M - 1.0 1.0 0 0

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 75.0 85.0 80.0 292 0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 16.0 25.0 20.0 376 0
MD.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Massachusetts Senate Race
MA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M 96.0 - 96.0 5 0
MA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 4.7 3.0 20 0
MA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 3.1 1.0 0 0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 90.0 - 92.0 89 0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 10.0 8.0 97 0
MI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 70.0 80.0 71.0 154 0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 21.0 30.0 28.0 276 0
MN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Mississippi Senate Race
MS.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 4.9 3.0 45 0
MS.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 54 0
MS.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 38.0 45.0 36.0 426 0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 55.0 65.0 64.0 400 0
MO.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 65.0 79.4 75.0 299 0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 25.0 35.0 25.0 425 0
MT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Nebraska Senate Race
NE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 90.0 99.9 90.0 193 0
NE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 0.1 10.0 10.0 330 0
NE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0

Nevada Senate Race
NV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 8.0 9.0 5.5 150 0
NV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 90.5 95.0 94.5 200 0
NV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 51.6 59.5 58.0 601 0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 40.5 48.9 41.0 503 0
NJ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Mexico Senate Race
NM.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 95.5 99.9 96.0 20 0
NM.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 0.2 4.2 3.0 10 0
NM.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

New York Senate Race
NY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 95.8 99.9 98.0 1763 0
NY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 1.0 4.5 2.0 1340 0
NY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 0.1 1.0 0.1 29 0

North Dakota Senate Race
ND.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M 93.5 - 95.0 100 0
ND.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 7.8 4.0 61 0
ND.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 60.0 63.6 59.9 554 0
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 37.2 40.0 40.2 456 0
OH.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 81.0 89.9 89.0 773 0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 11.0 19.8 11.0 1023 0
PA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 2 0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 55.0 60.0 55.0 406 0
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 36.0 44.9 43.0 369 0
RI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 1.1 3.0 2.0 450 0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 25.1 33.9 25.0 297 0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 65.1 74.9 74.0 266 0
TN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Texas Senate Race
TX.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 4.8 4.0 1 0
TX.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 0 0
TX.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0

Utah Senate Race
UT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 4.1 3.0 2 0
UT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M 95.5 - 96.0 0 0
UT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Vermont Senate Race
VT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 1.1 5.0 2.0 76 0
VT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 10.0 2.0 92 0
VT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 69 0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 5.0 15.0 12.0 293 0
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 85.0 95.0 88.0 155 0
VA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 80.0 84.0 80.0 347 0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 10.0 20.0 20.0 512 0
WA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

West Virginia Senate Race
WV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 90.1 95.0 92.0 105 0
WV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 5.0 9.9 7.0 104 0
WV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Wisconsin Senate Race
WI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 90.1 99.8 95.0 61 0
WI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 0.2 9.9 5.0 72 0
WI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Wyoming Senate Race
WY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 3.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Aug 02 - 6:52PM BST

The following concerns the Connecticut Race:
Here are the bets for the Connecticut Primary:
Connecticut Democratic primary for Senate 2006
CT.DEM.LIEBERMAN
Joe Lieberman to Win M 35.0 40.0 44.0 642 -2.0
CT.DEM.LAMONT
Ned Lamont to Win M 55.0 65.0 54.9 465 +0.9
CT.DEM.FIELD
The Field (Any Other Candidate) to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
Now, here are the bets for the general election:
Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 57.1 86.8 70.0 246 +4.0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 1.1 6.0 3.0 95 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 30.1 70.0 34.4 366 +3.4

Now were left with four possibilities:
1. Lamont wins
2. Lieberman wins as a Democrat
3. Lieberman wins as an Independent
4. Weiker wins

The probability of Lamont winning is the probability that he wins the primary*the probability that a Democrat wins the election. That equals .549*.7=.3843

The probability of Lieberman winning as a Democrat is the probability that he wins the primary*the probability that a Democrat wins the election. That is .44*.7=.308

The probability of Lieberman winning as an independent is the probability that he loses the primary*the probability that an Independent wins the election. That is .549*.344=.188856

The probability of Weiker winning is the probability that Leiberman wins the primary*the probability that an Independent wins the election. That is .44*.344=.15136

If we were to put this in a table, it would look like this:

Lamont .3843
Lieberman (D) .308
Lieberman (I) .188856
Weiker .15136

Judging by this table, Lamont will probably win, but we can't say for sure. I will now make a non-partisan table to try to offset the uncertainty:

Lieberman .496856
Lamont .3843
Weiker .15136

Judging by this, Lieberman will probably win
regardless of party. Because of the table above, I'm guessing that Lamont wins the primary but loses to Lieberman.

Version: 14

Arizona Senate Race
AZ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 9.5 12.9 8.0 203 0
AZ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 87.1 95.0 91.0 147 0
AZ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

California Senate Race
CA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M 96.0 - 96.0 6 0
CA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 3.9 3.0 2 0
CA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 55.0 70.0 61.0 226 0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 1.1 7.7 4.0 95 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 30.0 41.0 35.0 296 0

Delaware Senate Race
DE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 4 0
DE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 4.4 2.0 10 0
DE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Florida Senate Race
FL.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 94.5 97.0 95.0 219 0
FL.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 3.5 5.7 4.0 549 0
FL.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 10 0

Hawaii Senate Race
HI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 95.1 - 96.0 10 0
HI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 1.0 4.7 3.0 3 0
HI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Indiana Senate Race
IN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 4.2 3.0 9 0
IN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M 95.6 - 96.0 0 0
IN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Maine Senate Race
ME.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 0.2 5.0 3.0 49 0
ME.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 95.3 99.8 96.0 71 0
ME.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M - 1.0 1.0 0 0

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 70.0 84.0 77.0 282 0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 11.0 30.0 23.0 373 0
MD.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Massachusetts Senate Race
MA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 5 0
MA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 4.7 3.0 20 0
MA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 3.1 1.0 0 0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 89.0 93.0 92.0 79 0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 7.0 11.9 8.0 87 0
MI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 65.0 - 71.0 154 0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 16.4 34.2 28.0 269 0
MN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Mississippi Senate Race
MS.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 4.9 3.0 45 0
MS.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 54 0
MS.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 45.0 37.0 413 0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 55.0 - 63.0 388 0
MO.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 61.0 77.0 68.0 270 0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 40.0 32.0 375 0
MT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Nebraska Senate Race
NE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 90.0 99.9 90.0 193 0
NE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 0.1 10.0 10.0 330 0
NE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0

Nevada Senate Race
NV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 5.5 9.0 8.0 132 0
NV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 90.5 94.5 91.0 185 0
NV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 50.0 60.0 55.0 566 0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 40.0 45.0 45.0 467 0
NJ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Mexico Senate Race
NM.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 95.5 99.9 96.0 20 0
NM.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 0.2 4.2 3.0 10 0
NM.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

New York Senate Race
NY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 95.8 97.9 97.4 1728 0
NY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 1.0 4.5 2.4 1340 0
NY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 0.1 1.0 0.1 29 0

North Dakota Senate Race
ND.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M 93.5 - 95.0 100 0
ND.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 7.8 4.0 61 0
ND.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 51.5 57.0 51.5 527 +2.5
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 40.0 50.0
51.0 447 0
OH.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 80.2 89.0 88.0 768 0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 11.0 19.0 12.0 944 0
PA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 2 0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 50.0 - 55.0 406 0
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 0.2 49.0 43.0 369 0
RI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 1.0 3.0 2.0 450 0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 30.0 25.0 288 0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 70.0 - 74.0 266 0
TN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Texas Senate Race
TX.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 4.8 4.0 1 0
TX.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 0 0
TX.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0

Utah Senate Race
UT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 4.1 3.0 2 0
UT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M 95.5 - 96.0 0 0
UT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Vermont Senate Race
VT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 1.1 5.0 2.0 76 0
VT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 14.0 2.0 92 0
VT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 69 0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 11.0 20.0 18.0 245 0
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 81.5 90.0 82.0 145 0
VA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 68.0 79.9 72.0 326 0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 21.0 35.0 28.0 482 0
WA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

West Virginia Senate Race
WV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 90.1 95.0 92.0 105 0
WV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 5.0 9.9 7.0 104 0
WV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Wisconsin Senate Race
WI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 90.1 99.8 95.0 61 0
WI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 0.2 9.9 5.0 72 0
WI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Wyoming Senate Race
WY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 3.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Jul 26 - 5:27PM BST

The following concerns the Connecticut Race:
Here are the bets for the Connecticut Primary:
Connecticut Democratic primary for Senate 2006
CT.DEM.LIEBERMAN
Joe Lieberman to Win M 56.0 60.0 56.0 329 0
CT.DEM.LAMONT
Ned Lamont to Win M 40.0 47.9 44.0 195 0
CT.DEM.FIELD
The Field (Any Other Candidate) to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Now, here are the bets for the general election:
Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 55.0 70.0 61.0 226 0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 1.1 7.7 4.0 95 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 30.0 41.0 35.0 296 0

Now were left with four possibilities:
1. Lamont wins
2. Lieberman wins as a Democrat
3. Lieberman wins as an Independent
4. Weiker wins

The probability of Lamont winning is the probability that he wins the primary*the probability that a Democrat wins the election. That equals .44*.61=.2684

The probability of Lieberman winning as a Democrat is the probability that he wins the primary*the probability that a Democrat wins the election. That is .56*.61=.3416

The probability of Lieberman winning as an independent is the probability that he loses the primary*the probability that an Independent wins the election. That is .44*.35=.1540

The probability of Weiker winning is the probability that Leiberman wins the primary*the probability that an Independent wins the election. That is .56*.35=.1960

If we were to put this in a table, it would look like this:

Lieberman (D) .3416
Lamont .2684
Weiker .1960
Lieberman (I) .1540

Judging by this table, Lieberman will probably win as a Democrat, but we can't say for sure. I will now make a non-partisan table to try to offset the uncertainty:

Lieberman .4956
Lamont .2684
Weiker .1960

Judging by this, Lieberman will probably win
regardless of party.

Version: 13

Here are the bets for the Connecticut Primary:
Connecticut Democratic primary for Senate 2006
CT.DEM.LIEBERMAN
Joe Lieberman to Win M 51.0 60.0 52.0 314 0
CT.DEM.LAMONT
Ned Lamont to Win M 40.0 49.0 44.0 193 -4.0
CT.DEM.FIELD
The Field (Any Other Candidate) to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Now, here are the bets for the general election:
Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 55.0 70.0 61.0 226 0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 1.1 7.7 4.0 95 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 30.0 43.0 41.0 296 +6.0

Now were left with four possibilities:
1. Lamont wins
2. Lieberman wins as a Democrat
3. Lieberman wins as an Independent
4. Weiker wins

The probability of Lamont winning is the probability that he wins the primary*the probability that a Democrat wins the election. That equals .42*.61=.2562

The probability of Lieberman winning as a Democrat is the probability that he wins the primary*the probability that a Democrat wins the election. That is .52*.61=.3172

The probability of Lieberman winning as an independent is the probability that he loses the primary*the probability that an Independent wins the election. That is .42*.41=.1722

The probability of Weiker winning is the probability that Leiberman wins the primary*the probability that an Independent wins the election. That is .52*.41=.2132

If we were to put this in a table, it would look like this:

Lieberman (D) .3172
Lamont .2562
Weiker .2132
Lieberman (I) .1722

Judging by this table, Lieberman will probably win as a Democrat, but we can't say for sure. I will now make a non-partisan table to try to offset the uncertainty:

Lieberman .4894
Lamont .2562
Weiker .2132

Judging by this, Lieberman will probably win
regardless of party.

Version: 12

Arizona Senate Race
AZ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 5.0 10.0 8.0 203 0
AZ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 90.0 95.0 91.0 147 0
AZ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
California Senate Race
CA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M 96.0 - 96.0 6 0
CA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 3.9 3.0 2 0
CA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0
Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 43.0 70.0 64.9 226 0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 1.1 5.7 4.0 95 0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 29.0 39.5 35.0 276 0
Delaware Senate Race
DE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 4 0
DE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 4.4 2.0 10 0
DE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0
Florida Senate Race
FL.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 94.5 97.0 95.0 219 0
FL.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 3.5 5.7 4.0 549 0
FL.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 10 0
Hawaii Senate Race
HI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 95.1 - 96.0 10 0
HI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 1.0 4.7 3.0 3 0
HI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0
Indiana Senate Race
IN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 4.2 3.0 9 0
IN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M 95.6 - 96.0 0 0
IN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0
Maine Senate Race
ME.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 0.2 5.0 3.0 49 0
ME.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 95.3 99.8 96.0 71 0
ME.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M - 1.0 1.0 0 0
Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 65.0 84.0 77.0 272 0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 35.0 23.0 363 0
MD.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
Massachusetts Senate Race
MA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 5 0
MA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 4.7 3.0 20 0
MA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 3.1 1.0 0 0
Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 89.0 93.0 92.0 79 0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 7.0 11.9 8.0 87 0
MI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0
Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 70.0 - 71.0 144 0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 20.0 30.0 28.0 246 0
MN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0
Mississippi Senate Race
MS.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 4.9 3.0 45 0
MS.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 54 0
MS.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0
Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 35.0 45.0 37.0 360 0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 51.0 - 63.0 378 0
MO.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 56.0 70.0 65.0 237 0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 30.0 44.4 35.0 343 0
MT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
Nebraska Senate Race
NE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 90.0 - 90.0 193 0
NE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 15.0 10.0 330 0
NE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0
Nevada Senate Race
NV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 5.5 9.0 8.0 132 0
NV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 90.5 94.5 91.0 185 0
NV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0
New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 55.2 70.0 56.0 515 -14.0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 30.0 44.0 30.0 412 0
NJ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0
New Mexico Senate Race
NM.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 95.5 99.9 96.0 20 0
NM.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 0.2 4.2 3.0 10 0
NM.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0
New York Senate Race
NY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 95.8 97.9 97.4 1728 0
NY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 2.4 4.5 3.0 1328 0
NY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 0.1 1.0 0.1 29 0
North Dakota Senate Race
ND.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M 93.5 - 95.0 100 0
ND.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 7.8 4.0 61 0
ND.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0
Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 48.8 52.9 50.0 479 +1.0
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 50.0 51.8 51.0 407 0
OH.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0
Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 80.1 88.0 88.0 763 0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 12.0 19.8 12.0 939 0
PA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 2 0
Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 50.0 55.0 50.0 386 0
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 41.0 50.0 48.0 349 0
RI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 1.0 3.0 2.0 450 0
Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 22.0 33.9 25.0 258 0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 65.1 79.0 74.0 246 0
TN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0
Texas Senate Race
TX.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 4.8 4.0 1 0
TX.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 0 0
TX.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0
Utah Senate Race
UT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 4.1 3.0 2 0
UT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M 95.5 - 96.0 0 0
UT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0
Vermont Senate Race
VT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 1.1 5.0 2.0 76 0
VT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 14.0 5.0 92 0
VT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 69 0
Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 11.0 20.0 18.0 240 0
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 80.0 90.0 82.0 145 0
VA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 63.0 73.0 72.8 306 0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 27.0 40.0 28.0 462 0
WA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
West Virginia Senate Race
WV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 90.1 95.0 92.0 105 0
WV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 5.0 9.9 7.0 104 0
WV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0
Wisconsin Senate Race
WI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 90.1 95.0 92.0 51 0
WI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 5.0 9.9 7.0 62 0
WI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0
Wyoming Senate Race
WY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 3.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Jul 24 - 2:13AM BST

Version: 11

Arizona Senate Race
AZ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 5.0 10.0 8.0 203 0
AZ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M 90.0 95.0 91.0 147 0
AZ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Arizona Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

California Senate Race

CA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M 96.0 - 96.0 6 0
CA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 3.9 3.0 2 0
CA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 California Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 59.0 65.0 64.9 192 +4.9
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 1.1 7.7 4.0 95 -1.0
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 20.0 50.0 35.0 276 0

Delaware Senate Race
DE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M 96.0 - 97.0 4 0
DE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 4.4 2.0 10 0
DE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Delaware Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Florida Senate Race
FL.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 94.5 97.0 95.0 219 0
FL.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M 3.5 5.7 4.0 549 0
FL.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Florida Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 10 0

Hawaii Senate Race
HI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 95.1 - 96.0 10 0
HI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M 1.0 4.7 3.0 3 0
HI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Hawaii Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Indiana Senate Race
IN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 4.2 3.0 9 0
IN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M 95.6 - 96.0 0 0
IN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Indiana Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Maine Senate Race
ME.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 0.2 5.0 3.0 49 0
ME.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M 95.3 99.8 96.0 71 0
ME.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maine Senate race M - 1.0 1.0 0 0

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 65.0 84.0 77.0 272 0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 35.0 23.0 363 0
MD.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Massachusetts Senate Race
MA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 5 0
MA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 4.7 3.0 20 0
MA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Massachusetts Senate race M - 3.1 1.0 0 0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 89.0 93.0 92.0 79 +3.0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 7.0 11.9 8.0 87 -2.0
MI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 70.0 - 71.0 144 0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 20.0 30.0 28.0 246 0
MN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Mississippi Senate Race
MS.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 4.9 3.0 45 0
MS.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M 95.2 - 96.0 54 0
MS.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Mississippi Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 35.0 45.0 37.0 360 0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 51.0 - 63.0 378 0
MO.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 56.0 70.0 65.0 237 0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 30.0 44.4 35.0 343 0
MT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Nebraska Senate Race
NE.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M 90.0 - 90.0 193 +4.0
NE.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 15.0 10.0 330 -4.0
NE.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nebraska Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0

Nevada Senate Race
NV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 5.5 9.0 8.0 132 0
NV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M 90.5 94.5 91.0 185 0
NV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Nevada Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 56.0 73.0 70.0 510 +5.0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 27.0 44.0 30.0 412 -5.0
NJ.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

New Mexico Senate Race
NM.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 95.5 99.9 96.0 20 0
NM.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M 0.2 4.2 3.0 10 0
NM.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New Mexico Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

New York Senate Race
NY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 95.8 97.9 97.4 1728 0
NY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 2.4 4.5 3.0 1328 0
NY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 New York Senate race M 0.1 1.0 0.1 29 0

North Dakota Senate Race
ND.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M 93.5 - 95.0 100 0
ND.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 7.8 4.0 61 0
ND.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 North Dakota Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 48.8 50.0 49.0 469 0
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 50.0 51.8 51.0 407 0
OH.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 1 0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 80.1 90.0 88.0 763 0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 2.6 19.8 12.0 939 0
PA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 2 0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 50.0 55.0 50.0 386 0
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 41.0 50.0 48.0 349 0
RI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 1.0 3.0 2.0 450 0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 22.0 33.9 25.0 258 0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 65.1 79.0 74.0 246 0
TN.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Texas Senate Race
TX.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 4.8 4.0 1 0
TX.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M 95.3 - 96.0 0 0
TX.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Texas Senate race M - 5.0 0.1 0 0
Utah Senate Race
UT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006

Utah Senate race M - 4.1 3.0 2 0
UT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M 95.5 - 96.0 0 0
UT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Utah Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Vermont Senate Race
VT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 1.1 5.0 2.0 76 0
VT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M - 5.0 2.0 82 0
VT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Vermont Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 69 0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 11.0 20.0 18.0 240 0
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 80.0 90.0 82.0 145 0
VA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 63.0 73.0 72.8 296 0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 27.0 40.0 28.0 462 0
WA.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M - 0.1 0.1 0 0

West Virginia Senate Race
WV.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 90.1 95.0 92.0 105 0
WV.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M 5.0 9.9 7.0 104 0
WV.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 West Virginia Senate race M - 2.0 1.0 0 0

Wisconsin Senate Race
WI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 90.1 95.0 92.0 51 0
WI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M 5.0 9.9 7.0 62 0
WI.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Wyoming Senate Race
WY.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 3.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M 95.0 - 96.0 0 0
WY.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Wyoming Senate race M - 5.0 1.0 0 0

Version: 9

These are the latest results from intrade.com:

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 73.1 85.0 80.0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 4.0 7.8 4.5
CT.SENATE06.FIELD

Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 16.0 27.0 15.5

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 65.0 85.0 77.0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M - 35.0 25.0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 89.0 92.0 89.0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 8.0 11.9 10.0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 70.0 - 80.0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 20.0 30.0 39.0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 35.0 45.0 37.0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 51.0 - 60.0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 56.0 70.0 65.0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 30.0 44.4 35.0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 55.2 70.0 65.0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 30.0 44.9 35.0

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 47.1 50.0 48.0 469 0
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 50.0 52.8 52.0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 80.1 95.0 88.0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 10.1 19.9 15.0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 50.0 55.0 50.0
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 41.0 50.0 48.0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M - 33.9 25.0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 65.1 - 75.0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 11.0 20.0 15.1
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 80.0 90.0 82.0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 63.0 73.0 72.8
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 27.0 40.0 30.0

Version: 8

Note: I classified states I felt were
'slight' as 'lean'.

Here's what people are betting on intrade.com about certain states:

Connecticut Senate Race
CT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 60.0 85.0 78.0
CT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 1.1 7.8 4.9
CT.SENATE06.FIELD
Any Other Candidate to win the 2006 Connecticut Senate race M 15.0 30.0 33.0

Maryland Senate Race
MD.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 61.1 74.5 70.0
MD.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Maryland Senate race M 27.0 37.0
28.0

Michigan Senate Race
MI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 88.2 92.0 89.0
MI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Michigan Senate race M 8.0 11.9 10.0

Minnesota Senate Race
MN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 61.0 64.0 61.0
MN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Minnesota Senate race M 37.5 40.0 38.0

Missouri Senate Race
MO.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 42.0 45.0 43.0
MO.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Missouri Senate race M 56.5 59.0 57.0

Montana Senate Race
MT.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 49.0 65.0 57.0
MT.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Montana State race M 43.8 44.4 43.0

New Jersey Senate Race
NJ.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 51.0 79.0 63.0
NJ.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 New Jersey Senate race M 21.5 45.0 40.5

Ohio Senate Race
OH.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 47.1 53.4 48.0
OH.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Ohio Senate race M 51.0 53.0 52.0

Pennsylvania Senate Race
PA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 80.0 83.0 81.0
PA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race M 2.0 20.0 20.0

Rhode Island Senate Race
RI.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 43.2 48.0 47.0
RI.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Race M 47.5 52.0 48.0

Tennessee Senate Race
TN.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 20.0 25.0 23.0
TN.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Tennessee Senate race M 75.1 80.0 76.0

Virginia Senate Race
VA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M 15.0 22.0 20.0
VA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Virginia Senate race M - 85.0 82.0

Washington Senate Race
WA.SENATE06.DEM
Democratic Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 63.0 72.8 71.0
WA.SENATE06.GOP
Republican Party Candidate to win the 2006 Washington Senate race M 30.0 - 29.0

I will now categorize these findings by betting and margins respectively:
_________________________
<50 RI
_________________________
<66 MN;MO;MT;NJ;OH
_________________________
<75 MD;WA
_________________________
>75 CT;MI;PA;TN;VA
_________________________
_________________________
<5 OH;RI
_________________________
<20 MO;MT
_________________________
<30 MN;NJ
_________________________
>30 CT;MD;MI;PA;TN;VA;WA

Version: 7

Version: 3

I do consider it extremely unlikely, but it is still possible that the Reps can win all five of my predicted tossup states. I also find it possible that Rhode Island will vote for an independent, as the two major candidates are neck-n-neck.

Version History

Member Comments

By: gumball machine (L-CA) - 2006-11-08 @ 20:15:47

I am not yet willing to concede, though I admit webb will porbably win. If he doesn't, my pred is prefect.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	31/35	28/35	59/70	84.3%	6	11	69	T	305
2022 Governor	32/36	25/36	57/72	79.2%	5	17	130	T	272
2020 President	55/56	44/56	99/112	88.4%	1	57	48	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	1	55	137	T	423
2016 President	50/56	31/56	81/112	72.3%	3	460	194	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	20/34	52/68	76.5%	1	539	35	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	8/12	17/24	70.8%	1	487	14	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	273	8	T	112
2014 Senate	33/36	27/36	60/72	83.3%	30	0	21	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	17/36	45/72	62.5%	22	0	145	T	300
2010 Senate	33/37	22/37	55/74	74.3%	87	1	133	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	23/37	58/74	78.4%	10	2	74	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	109	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	28	1	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	12	8	117	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	3	110	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	9/52	6/52	15/104	14.4%	2	-	213	T	271
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	3	78	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	24/33	56/66	84.8%	39	1	31	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	17/36	52/72	72.2%	17	9	107	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	547/639	384/639	931/1278	72.8%

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