Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-29 Version:17

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	23
Rep	10
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	8
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+8	+3	+11	0	0	0	12	0	12	+11
Rep	0	0	0	-8	-3	-11	8	2	10	-11
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	23	36	59
Republican	10	26	36
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
49	30	19

Analysis

Keep an eye on Idaho, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Maine and South Carolina.

McCain has abysmal turn-out. Obama and Bush have energized the Dem Party. Some Republicans and many independents will vote for Obama. If these voters vote in down ballot races....

GOP is gonna take a hit.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: CollectiveInterest (I-IL) 2008-11-03 @ 23:43:23
Conventional wisdom is that Musgrove is gonna lose. Something tells me CW is wrong.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	52/56	43/56	95/112	84.8%	37	1	100	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	19/33	49/66	74.2%	17	6	144	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	1	343	152	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	35	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	18/33	50/66	75.8%	6	4	156	T	465
2006 Governor	31/36	20/36	51/72	70.8%	4	4	122	T	312
2004 President	43/56	22/56	65/112	58.0%	42	1	1721	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	201/228	131/228	332/456	72.8%

Links

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