Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-30 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	14
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	12
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	+3	+7	0	0	0	12	0	12	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-4	-3	-7	12	2	14	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	19	36	55
Republican	14	26	40
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
49	32	17

Analysis

7 Democrat pick-ups

No GOP pick-ups

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 1

I am no longer convinced that election 2008 is going to be a Democrat leaning election. The far-left tilt of the primary and the selection of Obama as the nominee will be a drag on the entire ticket. Though personally I loathe McCain, he will bring in millions of the Reagan Democrats that will be running away from Obama. The GOP will tie candidates to Obama wherever they can and many close races will go GOP. The Senate will be a wash with two pick-ups each.

Version History

Member Comments

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-10-30 @ 15:10:27
Wow, that map is a lot more on target than the Presidential one. Just like mine, in fact! ;-) How come you don't see a GOP tidal wave in the House. After all, isn't McCain ahead in PA and ME? :-P

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-10-30 @ 18:42:12
Yes, pretty good, GC. I'd make CO strong Dem., OR, NH & NC lean Dem., and GA toss-up. In fact, GA will remain undetermined until the Dec. runoff, IMHO. MN is a REAL toss-up, and may well go Franken for a +8 pickup pending GA runoff.

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-11-02 @ 17:03:24
GC - we are of the same mind. MN could tip Dem - this will be the big senate surprise of 08. I think Coleman will survive, just. I'm surprised Gordon Smith seems to be on his way out, however.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	51/56	37/56	88/112	78.6%	3	375	534	T	760
2010 Senate	30/37	17/37	47/74	63.5%	1	196	280	T	456
2008 President	49/56	37/56	86/112	76.8%	52	1	324	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	17/33	49/66	74.2%	2	5	144	T	407
2008 Dem Primary	29/52	11/52	40/104	38.5%	1	-	106	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	18/49	4/49	22/98	22.4%	2	-	152	T	235
2007 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	1	40	135	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	15/33	46/66	69.7%	2	26	257	T	465
2006 Governor	30/36	18/36	48/72	66.7%	1	76	157	T	312
2004 President	52/56	35/56	87/112	77.7%	6	21	474	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	324/411	192/411	516/822	62.8%

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