PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - WMS (D-NM) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:8

Prediction Map
WMS MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
WMS MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+3+3+600012012+6
Rep000-3-3-613215-6
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic183654
Republican152641
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
453114
piepiepie

Analysis

Sorry Gordon, I hate to see ya go...


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 7

Well, there goes Stevens. I hope. :-P


Version: 6

Look on the Confidence map. I can't believe that Dole is actually in serious trouble in NORTH CAROLINA, of all places, but it appears to be true...

Everything with a Tossup confidence is of course not remotely set in stone. So if anyone comments on that after the election, remember that. ;-)


Version: 5

Flipped Alaska *back* because it appears the trial against Stevens is going nowhere.

Any more changes are awaiting things to clear up from the froth of the past week or two.


Version: 4

Well, past time to change LA - the Dems sure are getting lucky this year.

Kept AK even though the incumbent won the primary - Stevens has serious issues.

Made a few minor changes, the biggest of which is probably moving OR to Tossup, which was overdue anyway.


Version: 3

Just for fun, I changed Alaska. Now if the incumbent loses in the upcoming primary, I'm switching this back. ;-)


Version: 2

Other than lowering the most extreme margins of victory, the big change here is moving NM into a Lean Dem state. God knows Udall isn't moderate, nor that impressive a candidate, but he's still going to thump right-winger Pearce. Nice job, Club-For-Growth. *rolls eyes*


Version: 1

Way too early to nail down the competitive races. However...
Alaska - It really all depends on the Rep primary, doesn't it?
Oregon - I'll predict Gordon Smith holds.
Colorado - At the moment, Udall-CO has an edge thanks to his opponent but it will be close.
New Mexico - A placeholder mostly designed to stick my tongue out at all the loony lefties who think Udall-NM has this in the bag. It will be a tossup race, period. :) Like Alaska, a lot will ride on the Rep primary. Sorry to the loony righties, but if the Club-For-Growth candidate wins the primary I'll be switching this to a Dem victory. :P
Minnesota - I'll predict Norm Coleman holds. Barely.
South Dakota - Probable Dem, but Tim Johnson's health is a concern.
*edit* Louisiana - Mary Landrieu is in trouble. Louisiana is not trending her way and there are too many New Orleans residents in Houston now.
Mississippi - More interesting than usual because of the special election. Come to think of it, why can't I display two different options here? One race is strong Rep, the other is only a slight lean Rep.
Virginia - Wow, this will be the biggest margin in a switching seat since Brad Ellsworth routed John Hostettler in IN-8 in 2006. This isn't even competitive.
New Jersey - Dem hold. But *which* Dem will hold it? :)
New Hampshire - Sorry, Sununu, but your state moved left without you. I suspect he'll do a bit better than predicted but he's still going to lose.
Maine - I'll predict Susan Collins holds. She deserves to.
All other things were mostly tweaking ratings to reduce some of the really big margins of victory. Now watch as the 70% and 80% victories end up happening. *sigh*


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 49/56 29/56 78/112 69.6% pie 1 221 646T684
P 2012 President 50/56 41/56 91/112 81.3% pie 1 7 466T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 14/33 43/66 65.2% pie 1 7 221T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 1 7 179T228
P 2008 President 52/56 25/56 77/112 68.8% pie 6 1 625T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 8 1 257T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 11 1 65T465
P 2006 Governor 36/36 22/36 58/72 80.6% pie 10 5 44T312
P 2004 President 53/56 23/56 76/112 67.9% pie 15 6 1441T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 342/370 193/370 535/740 72.3% pie


Back to 2008 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved