Comments History
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hideVersion: 7
Well, there goes Stevens. I hope. :-P
Version: 6
Look on the Confidence map. I can't believe that Dole is actually in serious trouble in NORTH CAROLINA, of all places, but it appears to be true...
Everything with a Tossup confidence is of course not remotely set in stone. So if anyone comments on that after the election, remember that. ;-)
Version: 5
Flipped Alaska *back* because it appears the trial against Stevens is going nowhere.
Any more changes are awaiting things to clear up from the froth of the past week or two.
Version: 4
Well, past time to change LA - the Dems sure are getting lucky this year.
Kept AK even though the incumbent won the primary - Stevens has serious issues.
Made a few minor changes, the biggest of which is probably moving OR to Tossup, which was overdue anyway.
Version: 3
Just for fun, I changed Alaska. Now if the incumbent loses in the upcoming primary, I'm switching this back. ;-)
Version: 2
Other than lowering the most extreme margins of victory, the big change here is moving NM into a Lean Dem state. God knows Udall isn't moderate, nor that impressive a candidate, but he's still going to thump right-winger Pearce. Nice job, Club-For-Growth. *rolls eyes*
Version: 1
Way too early to nail down the competitive races. However...
Alaska - It really all depends on the Rep primary, doesn't it?
Oregon - I'll predict Gordon Smith holds.
Colorado - At the moment, Udall-CO has an edge thanks to his opponent but it will be close.
New Mexico - A placeholder mostly designed to stick my tongue out at all the loony lefties who think Udall-NM has this in the bag. It will be a tossup race, period. :) Like Alaska, a lot will ride on the Rep primary. Sorry to the loony righties, but if the Club-For-Growth candidate wins the primary I'll be switching this to a Dem victory. :P
Minnesota - I'll predict Norm Coleman holds. Barely.
South Dakota - Probable Dem, but Tim Johnson's health is a concern.
*edit* Louisiana - Mary Landrieu is in trouble. Louisiana is not trending her way and there are too many New Orleans residents in Houston now.
Mississippi - More interesting than usual because of the special election. Come to think of it, why can't I display two different options here? One race is strong Rep, the other is only a slight lean Rep.
Virginia - Wow, this will be the biggest margin in a switching seat since Brad Ellsworth routed John Hostettler in IN-8 in 2006. This isn't even competitive.
New Jersey - Dem hold. But *which* Dem will hold it? :)
New Hampshire - Sorry, Sununu, but your state moved left without you. I suspect he'll do a bit better than predicted but he's still going to lose.
Maine - I'll predict Susan Collins holds. She deserves to.
All other things were mostly tweaking ratings to reduce some of the really big margins of victory. Now watch as the 70% and 80% victories end up happening. *sigh*