Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-01-04 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	23
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	23
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	0	+2	-4	0	-4	8	0	8	-2
Rep	+4	0	+4	-2	0	-2	14	5	19	+2
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	10	36	46
Republican	23	26	49
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
29	21	8

Analysis

Analysis

2008 SENATE SEAT ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

Pretty standard predictions all-around. All Southern and Rocky Mountain, including Colorado, states will go "red" (GOP). Meantime, all Northeastern and Mid-West states will go "blue" (Democratic).

The only real toss-ups will come in ARKANSAS and NEW HAMPSHIRE if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Party presidential nominee. A Clinton nomination, however, has next to no chance of helping turn the New Mexico Senate seat over to the Democrats. If former-NM governor Bill Richardson, a long-shot for sure, became the party's nominee a Democrat would more likely than not become the state's Senator.

MINNESOTA will be problematic depending on who the Democratic Party nominee is. As of today (12/24/07), I say leaning GOP.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Xahar (D-CA) 2008-05-12 @ 14:29:13
What is with Arkansas?

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	46/56	23/56	69/112	61.6%	3	305	1031	T	1,505
2008 Senate	21/33	8/33	29/66	43.9%	2	305	403	T	407
2008 Governor	7/11	2/11	9/22	40.9%	2	305	259	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	74/100	33/100	107/200	53.5%

Links

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