Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-06-19 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	4
Rep	28
Ind	1
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	4
Rep	25
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-8	0	-8	4	0	4	-8
Rep	+7	0	+7	0	0	0	16	5	21	+7
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	4	36	40
Republican	28	26	54
Independent	1	2	3

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
24	17	7

Analysis

MT: Baucus is a terrible candidate for the state, that guy that won the primary really fits Montana. He is incredibly insane and rarely makes sense

AK: Ted Stevens is the king of pork and Alaska knows that. Their not going to let some small town mayor take that away.

SD: South Dakotans don't want a storked out senator, Rounds will step in last minute and steal the show from Johnson

IA: It's just hard to imagine Tom Harkin being able to win in today's atmosphere

DE: Joe Biden will run as Obama's Sec. of State and step aside Castle to win the state at the least minute

LA: Voters will mistakenly think JFK is back from the dead and vote for him giving Kennedy an easy win

AR: Sad the GOP did not run a candidate, however, Pryor should easily fall to the 3rd party

NJ: Jersey Dems will make a last minute switch to the Torch, GOP will give Kean Sr. the nod, easy victory

VA: Mark Warner can't stop Gilmore, his presidential run gave him all he needed to win

Member Comments

By: WinOne4TheGipper (R-TX) 2008-06-20 @ 12:11:59
This won't happen.

By: downwithdaleft (R-NJ) 2008-06-20 @ 18:02:28
Ya think?

By: benconstine (D-VA) 2008-07-16 @ 23:07:12
Holy sh!t, this is the funniest prediction ever!

By: axlee73 (I-GA) 2008-07-30 @ 15:32:24
I beg to differ with your prediction on IL, MI and WV. IL: the pending Mc???? (what is my name again?) landslide would surely wash the other guy (what is his name again? He himself might know it, but hey who cares!) from IL down the gutter. WV: can you think in this tidewave a Rockefeller to survive? MI: hey Mc???? will have Romney on ticket. That is surely a long enough coatail. Finally, RI, it is really a part of the Union?

By: Xahar (D-CA) 2008-10-09 @ 22:28:56
Lulz.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank	#Pred
2008 President	24/56	12/56	36/112	32.1%	1	496	1493	1,505
2008 Senate	17/33	7/33	24/66	36.4%	1	138	405	407
2006 U.S. Senate	15/33	6/33	21/66	31.8%	4	39	465	465
2006 Governor	18/36	5/36	23/72	31.9%	3	39	312	312
Aggregate Predictions	74/158	30/158	104/316	32.9%

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