Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-31 Version:6

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	14
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	12
Ind	0
Tos	3
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	+3	+7	0	0	0	12	0	12	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-4	-3	-7	12	2	14	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	19	36	55
Republican	14	26	40
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
53	32	21

Analysis

Last Map

AK: Stevens is probably done, but there may be a small chance he holds on.

CO: Fairly weak Republican candidate. Udall will probably run a few points ahead of Obama.

DE: Biden wins two races in DE.

GA: If the Presidential race is close Martin will win.

ID: Risch will win, but I think it will be closer than most think.

KY: Really?

ME: This race was always a pipe dream.

MN: 3rd party candidate will sink Franken.

MS: Could happen, but I don't think there will be enough cross-over voters.

NH: Will be closer than the Presidential race, but will still be a Dem gain.

NM: The Race was never competitive.

NC: Maybe Dole would have fared better if she actualy lived in the state.

OR: Wow. I bet all the Dems who passed on this race are kicking themselfs.

SC: Could be close if things get crazy.

TX: How many hispanics will vote?

VR: See NM.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	53/56	38/56	91/112	81.3%	6	4	200	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	21/33	53/66	80.3%	6	4	57	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	6	4	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	94/100	64/100	158/200	79.0%

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