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Prediction Map



* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		25 |	33 |	50 |
Dem	20
Rep	13
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 |	33 |	50 |
Dem	16
Rep	13
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	+3	+8	0	0	0	12	0	12	+8
Rep	0	0	0	-5	-3	-8	11	2	13	-8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats Democratic 20 36 56 Republican 13 26 39 Independent 0 2 2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
50	33	17

Analysis

The Senate will be interesting this year! Here we go:

AK: Since the Stevens conviction, this should an easy gain for the Dems. While the AK GOP has been able to scare voters into think the state could lose Federal monies in years past, it won't work now.

CO and NM: The GOP has weak candidates and the Dems got an early start. This will help the Dems in the end.

OR and NH: While Gordon Smith and John Sununu may be good Republicans, the bad economy will not work in their favor. As for NH, there is bad blood left over from 2002 as well.

MN: Even with the weaknesses in Al Franken, the bad economic climate should help him win. It appears MN is faced with choosing the guy you dislike the most. My gut wants Dean Barkley to win, but I don't see it.

KY: While things have turned bad for the GOP, McConnell has always won in the past. I feel he will survive again. The GOP tilt of the state should help as well.

GA: The incumbent ran a terrible and nasty ad here in '02 that got him elected. While the infusion of Black voters should help Jim Martin here, GA has a GOP tilt that helps.

VA: The GOP had a chance to win here. They blew it when they chose of convention instead of a primary. The new wave of Dems and the popularity of former Gov. Warner should put him over the top with ease.

NC: This time last year, I was solid for Liddy Dole. Time has changed this. The lack of real achievements in office and her nominal residence in NC will see her lose on the day.

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