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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-29 Version:1

Prediction Map
hoshie Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
hoshie Map


Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem16
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+5+3+800012012+8
Rep000-5-3-811213-8
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic203656
Republican132639
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
503317
piepiepie

Analysis

The Senate will be interesting this year! Here we go:

AK: Since the Stevens conviction, this should an easy gain for the Dems. While the AK GOP has been able to scare voters into think the state could lose Federal monies in years past, it won't work now.

CO and NM: The GOP has weak candidates and the Dems got an early start. This will help the Dems in the end.

OR and NH: While Gordon Smith and John Sununu may be good Republicans, the bad economy will not work in their favor. As for NH, there is bad blood left over from 2002 as well.

MN: Even with the weaknesses in Al Franken, the bad economic climate should help him win. It appears MN is faced with choosing the guy you dislike the most. My gut wants Dean Barkley to win, but I don't see it.

KY: While things have turned bad for the GOP, McConnell has always won in the past. I feel he will survive again. The GOP tilt of the state should help as well.

GA: The incumbent ran a terrible and nasty ad here in '02 that got him elected. While the infusion of Black voters should help Jim Martin here, GA has a GOP tilt that helps.

VA: The GOP had a chance to win here. They blew it when they chose of convention instead of a primary. The new wave of Dems and the popularity of former Gov. Warner should put him over the top with ease.

NC: This time last year, I was solid for Liddy Dole. Time has changed this. The lack of real achievements in office and her nominal residence in NC will see her lose on the day.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 3 1 17T
P 2012 President 55/56 41/56 96/112 85.7% pie 3 14 265T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 19/33 51/66 77.3% pie 6 3 94T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 14/37 48/74 64.9% pie 3 2 265T
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 19 56T
P 2008 President 52/56 31/56 83/112 74.1% pie 1 6 404T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 1 6 117T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 6 86T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 31 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 15/33 48/66 72.7% pie 4 3 207T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 2 0 93T
P 2004 President 54/56 20/56 74/112 66.1% pie 6 1 1527T
Aggregate Predictions 345/358 185/358 530/716 74.0% pie


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