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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:4

Prediction Map
texaslefty Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
texaslefty Map


Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind0
 
Tos3
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+4+3+700012012+7
Rep000-4-3-712214-7
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic193655
Republican142640
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
553223
piepiepie

Analysis

Here are my final predictions for the Senate. Mississippi and Wyoming predictions are based on the special elections with incumbent Wicker in Mississippi and Barrasso in Wyoming. My predictions for Cochran and Enzi are R+60%/Strong.

Now for my House predictions. I will only post the seats that change parties, based on my completely objective predictions. A lot of these races could go either way.

R to D (29): AL-02, AK-AL, AZ-01, CO-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-24, ID-01, IL-10, IL-11, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MN-06, NV-03, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NY-13, NY-25, NY-29, NC-08, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, VA-11, WA-08

D to R (3): FL-16, PA-11, TX-22

Democrats 262, Republicans 173


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2010 Senate 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 13 0 100T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 26/37 60/74 81.1% pie 8 0 45T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 0 1T
P 2008 President 54/56 43/56 97/112 86.6% pie 18 0 55T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 4 0 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 9/11 20/22 90.9% pie 3 0 9T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 5 50 1T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 19/33 52/66 78.8% pie 3 4 113T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 28/36 63/72 87.5% pie 2 4 10T
Aggregate Predictions 238/248 176/248 414/496 83.5% pie


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