Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2012-10-15 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	25
Rep	6
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	6
Ind	2
Tos	7
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+2	+4	0	-1	-1	15	5	20	+3
Rep	0	+1	+1	-2	-3	-5	4	1	5	-4
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	25	30	55
Republican	6	37	43
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

Angus King I-ME will caucus with the Dems.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 2

Snowe has announced her retirement which flips ME to the Dems and keeps the Senate in likely Dem control for another 2 yrs. Also, Kerrey will be running in NE which will keep that seat competitive, but it may not turn out to be a winner for the Democrats.

Version: 1

Strong top of ticket showing helps Dems downticket break even in the Senate overall. Most tight races will thus break their way. Discuss freely.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	29/35	19/35	48/70	68.6%	2	54	280	T	305
2020 President	51/56	39/56	90/112	80.4%	4	41	392	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	18/35	48/70	68.6%	2	27	337	T	423
2016 President	46/56	22/56	68/112	60.7%	9	29	590	T	678
2016 Senate	26/34	7/34	33/68	48.5%	4	104	359		362
2014 Senate	28/36	14/36	42/72	58.3%	7	9	308	T	382
2014 Governor	26/36	10/36	36/72	50.0%	4	24	276	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	167	17	T	153
2012 President	56/56	36/56	92/112	82.1%	9	12	435	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	18/33	49/66	74.2%	4	22	128	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	35/52	9/52	44/104	42.3%	11	-	98	T	231
Aggregate Predictions	360/431	193/431	553/862	64.2%

Links

	Senatorial Predictions - Most Recent
	Senatorial Predictions - Most Recent Comments
	Senatorial Predictions Home

Back to 2012 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home