Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-04-23 Version:9

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

Confidence States Won

State Pick-ups

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Analysis

Some senators hold on but more lose if current trends continue and GOP takes over majority based on Colrado and Michigan flipping.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2014-04-23 @ 03:57:02
A surprise or two for the Dems could happen

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-23 @ 11:34:41
You have Landrieu-LA winning but Udall-CO losing. Is it due to the face Landrieu-LA gets 50 percent of the popular vote in November or Landrieu-D has a history of winning December runnoff election. Udall-CO has a top tier GOP challenger. <br /> Both sides have a base of 48 seats.<br /> Safe/Likely Democratic seats- 44D plus AK,AR,IA,and NH. 48seats.<br /> Republicans hold onto GA and KY,pick up SD,WV,and MT. 48seats.<br /> The tossup races are CO,LA,MI,and NC. <br /> MI is going to like the PA2010. <br /> LA- Republicans best hope is making sure Landrieu-D gets 49.99 percent in November. forcing a December runoff and voter supression in NOLA. <br /> That leaves CO and NC. Udall-CO and Hagan-NC are the two Incumbents likely to go down in the GOP wave. Republicans win open seat in SD,WV,MT-appointed incumbent,and MI.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2014-04-25 @ 10:48:27
I feel that Udall is in danger do to many reasons both national and state. I feel that Landrieu will win in the runoff, Pryor will squeak by ...but I feel Michigan and COlorado are weak as is NC, and I agree that Montana, SD and WV are gone. I also feel that the third party in Alaska will drain just enough from the GOP to allow aonther term for the Dem.<br /> <br /> But it is still APril...primaries to come...I am watching the GOP primary in Georgia and NC to produce strange results or establishment??

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-25 @ 12:39:07
The Republican nominees in NC(Thillis-R or Bannon-R) are similar to The Republican nominees in IA.<br /> The other reason why Udall is in danger is Gardner-R is much stronger candidate than Buck-R.<br />

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-25 @ 14:01:50
In previous Republican wave midterm elections only 2 vulnerable Democratic incumbents lost re-election. <br /> 1994(Sasser-TN and Wofford-PA) and 2010(Lincoln-AR and Feingold-WI)<br /> 2014- Walsh-MT is an appointed incumbent so it is an open seat election. If he does not win in 2014- he could run for the US House AT Large seat in 2016 then seek a rematch in 2020.<br /> The 2 vulnerable Democratic incumbents likely to lose in 2014 are Udall-CO and Hagan-NC but their loses will be similar to Feingold's 2010 lose. <br /> The other vulnerable Democratic incumbents- Begich-AK,Pryor-AR,and Landrieu-LA will get re-elected. (Landrieu-LA wins the December runoff). <br /> Giving Republicans KY(McConnell-R narrowly defeats Grimes-D) and GA(Perdue-R or Kingston-R are the GOP nominee)-45R<br /> Republicans pick up SD,WV,MT,NC,and CO- 50R<br /> MI will be the seat that determines which party controls the US Senate.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-25 @ 16:33:59
December Runoffs in LA and GA determine control of the US Senate.<br /> Democrats win 48 seats in November.<br /> 45)Shaheen-NH<br /> 46)Braley-IA<br /> 47)Begich-AK<br /> 48)Pryor-AR<br /> Republicans win 50 seats in November.<br /> 46)Daines-MT<br /> 47)McConnell-KY<br /> 48)Land-MI<br /> 49)Gardner-CO<br /> 50)Republican Nominee-NC.<br /> <br /> LA runoff occurs Dec 6,-Landrieu-D wins.49D<br /> GA runoff occurs Dec 10-(Nunn-D vs Handel-R)<br /> <br /> The Republican primary winner of GA is going to be Handel-R<br /> The Undecided voters go mostly to Handel-R and Broun-R. <br /> Perdue-R 20<br /> Handel-R 20<br /> Broun-R 20<br /> Kingston-R 15<br /> Gingrey-R 15<br /> Other-R 5<br /> <br /> Primary Runnoff between Perdue-R and Broun-R or Perdue-R and Handel-R is likely to occur.<br />

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