Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-03 Version:10

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	23
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	19
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	12	1	13	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	0	0	0	12	3	15	+8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	13	32	45
Republican	23	30	53
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
53	35	18

Analysis

Final Prediction: Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) reelected Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) Colorado: Cory Gardner (R) Delaware: Chris Coons (D) reelected Georgia: David Perdue (R) runoff Hawaii Special: Brian Schatz (D) reelected Idaho: Jim Ricsh (R) reelected Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) reelected Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) reelected Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) reelected Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) runoff Maine: Susan Collins (R) reelected Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) reelected Michigan: Gary Peters (D) Minnesota: Al Franken (D) reelected Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) reelected Montana: Steve Daines (R) Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) reelected New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) reelected New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) reelected North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) reelected Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) reelected Oklahoma Special: James Lankford (R) Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) reelected Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) reelected South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) reelected South Carolina Special: Tim Scott (R) reelected South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) Tennessee: Alexander Lamar (R) reelected Texas: John Cornyn (R) reelected Virginia: Mark Warner (D) reelected West Virginia: Shelley Capito Moore (R) Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) reelected House of Representatives: 238 Republican 197 Democrat

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	30/56	81/112	72.3%	10	3	194	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	5	3	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	4	3	67	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	10	1	158	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	6	1	15	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	233	17	T	153
2012 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	25	2	489	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	6	2	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	5	2	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	17/52	63/104	60.6%	29	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	245	37	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	19	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	8	1	106	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	3	1	T	103
2008 President	47/56	28/56	75/112	67.0%	44	1	702	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	7	1	257	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	232	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	43/52	24/52	67/104	64.4%	22	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	34/49	15/49	49/98	50.0%	23	-	55	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	534/609	307/609	841/1218	69.0%

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