The liberal Republic

[President Johnson]

September 2, 1970: Compromise for economic bill reached, Vice President Kennedy secures senate passage through tie-breaking vote

After Vice President Kennedy broke a tie in the senate for the passage of the  Economic Stabilization Act of 1970, President Johnson signed to measure into law

After weeks of negotiations, the administration and congress reached a compromise. It included spending cuts at the Pentagon and a de-facto freeze of additional domestic spending for one year. After a year, there has to be review of the situation. The new proposal also includes a review of current spending of all departments. President Johnson announced to appoint a special commission to review expenditures and make suggestions for “meaningful elimination of unnecessary spending”. Despite most Republicans still opposed, the president hopes to pass the proposed legislation with enough votes of Southern Democrats. After the House voted 227 to 204 for the new version of the Economic Stabilization Act of 1970, the senate vote, on September 1, ended up with a 50-50 tie. Aware of the closeness, Vice President Kennedy stepped in and broke the tie in favor of the bill. It was the first time that the vice president, in his role as Senate President, broke a tie since taking office in January 1969. On September 2, 1970, President Lyndon Johnson signed the bill into law at his desk in the Oval Office. Although an agreement on any tax issue couldn’t be reached, President Johnson announced to resume discussions after the midterm elections.


September 1970: Unemployment and inflation continue to rise; economy emerges as key issue in midterm elections


Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA) and former Republican nominee Richard Nixon on the campaign trail for the upcoming midterm elections

With the effects of the Economic Stabilization Act of 1970 still unclear, unemployment and inflation continued to rise over the fall. The first now reached 5.8%. Although Vietnam and civil unrest were still issues, the slow economic downturn emerged as the main issue in the midterm elections campaign. Republicans blamed the Johnson Administration and “out of control spending for social programs”. President Johnson and his allies defended the expansion of the welfare and urged to implement further programs such as healthcare for all. Over the course of the campaign, the president renewed his support of a constitutional amendment to lower the voting age to 18 and expressed his willingness to review the draft. Vice President Kennedy emphasized the need to reform the presidential primaries.


Gallup polls, released September 30, 1970

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%


1970 congressional elections – generic ballot

For which candidate would you vote in the congressional elections?

Democrat: 45%
Republican: 44%
 

October 1970: High-profile Democrats and Republicans stump the campaign trail



President Johnson at a Democratic campaign rally in October 1970

As the campaign is heating up, several high-profile Democrats and Republicans went out on the campaign trail, including those not up for election. Richard Nixon for the first time went back campaigning for his fellow Republicans, but denied to run for office again. Most notable races on the Republican side were these of governors Ronald Reagan and Nelson Rockefeller. The Gipper was well positioned to win a second term as California’s chief-executive, though the race was expected to end up closer than in 1966. Governor Rockefeller’s opponent, former Supreme Court Justice and U.N. Ambassador Arthur Goldberg, originally polled well for the New York gubernatorial contest, but now it looked like Rocky would beat both Goldberg and a candidate of the NY Conservative Party, who opposed the governor due to his liberal policies. Both Reagan and Rockefeller are seen as favorites for the 1972 GOP presidential nomination. Nevertheless, others such as Michigan Governor George Romney, another liberal Republican as well as his conservative colleague Spiro Agnew of Maryland, are polling well. In congress, Republicans are poised to win seats in both chambers. Some political observers even suggested, they could win a majority or come close to it. This would be a setback for President Johnson’s domestic agenda in the last two years of his presidency.


October 29, 1970: U.S. Chief Negotiator Cyrus Vance: “Peace Treaty is in sight”



Cyrus Vance: "Agreement is in sight"

Some labeled it as an October Surprise when U.S. Chief Negotiator in Paris, Cyrus Vance, announced on October 29, that a “Peace Treaty is near”. He didn’t outline specific points agreed to. Informal sources say that the South Vietnamese are more problematic than the North. A White House leak revealed, President Johnson is “going mad over Thieu’s endless demands for assurances” after Secretary of State Katzenbach twice flew to Saigon within three months. According to reports, Henry Kissinger again secretly visited Beijing for consultations. It remains to be seen how soon an agreement will be signed and what it contains as well as the effects of Vance’s statement on the elections.


Gallup polls, released October 31, 1970

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 43%


1970 congressional elections – generic ballot

For which candidate would you vote in the congressional elections?

Democrat: 45%
Republican: 45%


Next: Midterm election results and further developments... stay tuned and feel free to comment

[President Johnson]

★★★ United States Midterm elections, November 3, 1970 ★★★

On November 3, 1970 voters accross the country went to the polls to elect a third of the senate, the entire House of Representatives and 35 governors. The elections took place in the middle of President Lyndon B. Johnson's third (or second full) and last term.


Senate results

Dark red/blue = Democratic/Republican hold
Light red/blue = Democratic/Republican gain
Light Green = Independent Democratic gain
Very light blue = Conservative (NY) gain
Grey = No senate election in 1970

Senate composition: 53 Democratic  (net change  -6 seats), 45 Republican (net change:  +4 seats), 1 Conservative (net change:  +1 seat), 1 Independent Democrat (net change:  +1 seat)

Democratic gains: IL
Republican gains: CT, DE, MD, IN, OH, TN
Independent Democratic gain: VA¹
Conservative gain: NY

¹ = Senator Harry F. Byrd was a Democrat before, but ran as an Independent (Virginia)


Notable races:

California:
✓ George Murphy (R, inc.): 49.2%
John V. Tunney (D): 48.6%

Minnesota:
✓ Hubert Humphrey (D): 56.8%
Clark MacGregor (R): 42.5%

New York:
✓ James L. Buckley (Con): 39.4%
Richard Ottinger (D): 35.4%
Charles Godell (R, inc.): 25.8%

Virginia:
✓ Harry F. Byrd (I, inc.): 51.4%
George Rawlings (D): 31.2%
Ray Garland (R): 22.4%


House of Representatives

233 Democratic (net change  -20 seats); 202 Republican (net change:  +20 seats)


Congressional Leadership:
Senate President: Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY)
Senate Majority Leader: Mike Mansfield (D-MT)
Senate Minority Leader: Hugh Scott (R-PA)

Speaker of the House: Carl Albert (D-OK)
House Majority Leader: Hale Boggs (D-LA)
House Minority Leader: Gerald Ford (R-MI)


Natable gubernatorial races:

Alabama:
✓ Albert Brewer (D, inc.): 66.4%
John L. Cashin Jr (R): 21.4%%
A. C. Walker (I): 12.2%

California:
✓ Ronald Reagan (R, inc.): 53.8%
Jesse M. Unruh (D): 44.7%

Georgia:
✓ James E. "Jimmy" Carter: 58.0%
Hal Suit (R): 41.1%%

Nevada:
✓ Paul Laxalt (R, inc.): 52.3%
Frank O. Callaghan (D): 46.4%

New York:
✓ Nelson A. Rockefeller (R, inc.): 53.1%
Arthur Goldberg (D): 40.0%
Paul Adams (Con): 6.6%


Summary

Republican momentum, Rockefeller and Reagan strenghtened


Governors Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY) and Ronald Reagan (R-CA)

The election resulted in major gains for the Republican opposition. They not only picked up four seats in the senate, the GOP also managed to pick up 20 seats in the House (net gain), giving them 202 of the 435 seat chamber. Democrats lost the same number of mandates but maintained a relatively stable majority at 233 seats. Although the Republican gains are not half of the number they gained in the 1966 midterm elections (47 pick-ups), they came closer to a majority (218) than any other time in the 1960s. It seemed that the Republican economic message and ten years of Democratic presidents paid off at the voting booth. As newly elected Senator James Buckley, a conservative from New York who defeated both a Democratic and (liberal) Republican candidate in his race, noted on election night: “The voters have enough of the New Frontier and Great Society. America wants a different direction. We must cut taxes and spending”.

Although his Democrats still control congress, President Lyndon B. Johnson now heavily depends on more conservative Southern Democrats unless he wants to cooperate more closely with the Republicans. The next morning, the president offered newly elected senators and representatives his full cooperation. Shortly after, he invited all newly elected members of congress to a state dinner at the White House with him and Vice President Kennedy to discuss the agenda. It remains to be seen what policies the Johnson Administration is still able to implement. On top of the agenda is now a review of the draft and a constitutional amendment to lower the majority age to 18. These measures are not too difficult to enact, but when it comes to spending for social programs, the president is now expected to face more opposition than ever before throughout his seven year presidency. Political analysts wrote that in times when Ronald Reagan is emerging as national figure with presidential ambitions, LBJ’s main goal must now be to make sure, either Bobby Kennedy or Hubert Humphrey, who would protect and expand the Great Society, succeed him.

However, Republicans shouldn’t be overconfident, as they are divided between a liberal and conservative wing. Both of their leaders strengthened their position on election night. Nelson Rockefeller and Ronald Reagan won a comfortable reelection as governor. Rockefeller is now going into his fourth term as New York's governor while Reagan is beginning his second administration coming January.


A new generation of Southern Democrats?

Governor Albert Brewer (D-AL), Governor-elect Jimmy Carter (D-GA), Senators-elect Lawton Chiles (D-FL) and Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX)

Despite the triumphes of Rockefeller and Reagan, Democrats gained a handful of governorships and won some important races, especially in the South. Notably are the elections of Albert Brewer, who received a mandate in his own right as governor of Alabama. Governor Brewer, a liberal, defeated conservative Democrat and former governor George Wallace in the primary. Another notable new governor is Jimmy Carter of Georgia, who ran as a moderate southerner. However, after his election, Governor-elect Carter declared the "times of racial segregation are once for all over", angering many segregationists in the South, including his predecessor Lester Maddox, who was elected lieutenant governor after being barred from seeking reelection due to term limits. Both Brewer and Carter, along with newly elected senators Lawton Chiles of Florida and Llyod Bentsen of Texas, are considered a "new generation" of moderate-to-liberal Southern Democrats. President Johnson and Vice President Kennedy invited the four to lunch at the White House a few days after the election.

[President Johnson]

November 9, 1970: Thieu publically demands U.S. strikes against NLF, President Johnson declines

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On December 19, 1970, President Johnson headed off to China. Secretary of State Nicholas Katzenbach, Special Foreign Policy Advisor Henry Kissinger and members of his team including Chief of Staff Paul Nitze, joined him. The president was welcomed at an airport in Beijing by high-ranking Chinese delegation. The images of President Johnson stepping down the gateway and shaking hands went around the world. After a Chinese dinner, the actual talks begun the next day when the chief-executive first meet Secretary General Mao. The two men spoke for a combined of over five hours. Secretary Katzenbach and Mr. Kissinger were also present. As members of the president’s staff stated, Mao demanded an official relation with the United States. President Johnson responded that he will make decision once back in the United States. However, he insisted, the Republic of China (Taiwan) would remain an ally of the United States and that their sovereignty was not up for discussions. The president also requested for help in the Vietnam conflict. Mao reportedly agreed to urge North Vietnam to accept a final peace treaty. But he declined to end military aid. An official statement at the end was not given. Only an informal “agreement” that “discussions on various issues would continue”. On December 21, President Johnson was invited to take a walk on the Chinese wall. These photos went around the world.

After leaving China on December 21, the president made stops for less significant political consultations in India, Pakistan, Turkey, Germany, France and finally the United Kingdom. On December 23, the flew from directly from London to Texas to spend the Christmas holiday at the LBJ Ranch.
 
Most U.S. media agreed the visit was a success in the end. Former vice president and Senator-elect Hubert Humphrey commented, LBJ would go down in history as the president “for civil rights, social justice and the president who opened the door to China and the USSR”.


December 30, 1970: A lot of new polling in the year’s end!

Gallup polls, released December 30, 1970

By the end of 1970, President Johnson's approval rating's somewhat improved after his China trip, but the Republican gains in the midterm elections gave them some momentum at the polls for 1972.

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 42%

Question: Do you approve or disapprove President Johnson's handling of foreign policy?
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 40%

Question: Do you approve or disapprove President Johnson's handling of the Vietnam War?
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 45%

Question: Do you approve or disapprove President Johnson's handling of the economy?
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 49%

Question: Do you approve or disapprove Robert Kennedy's performance as vice president?
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 41%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

Democratic Party presidential nomination

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 31%
Former Vice President Hubert Humphrey: 27%
Former Governor George Wallace: 13%
Senator George McGovern: 9%
Senator Henry M. "Scoop" Jackson: 5%
Former Governor Lester Maddox¹: 5%%
Undecided/others: 10%


Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 23%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 23%
Governor Spiro Agnew: 15%
Governor George Romney: 12%
Senator John Tower: 8%
Governor Paul Laxalt: 5%
Undecided/Others: 14%

¹ = not included in previous polls


General election match-ups

Robert F. Kennedy: 43%
Ronald Reagan: 46%

Robert F. Kennedy: 43%
Nelson Rockefeller: 48%

Robert F. Kennedy: 43%
George Romney: 47%

Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
John Tower: 44%

Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
Spiro Agnew: 45%


Hubert Humphrey: 42%
Ronald Reagan: 45%

Hubert Humphrey: 41%
Nelson Rockefeller: 47%

Hubert Humphrey: 42%
George Romney: 47%

Hubert Humphrey: 43%
John Tower: 47%

Hubert Humphrey: 42%
Spiro Agnew: 47%


George Wallace: 40%
Ronald Reagan: 47%

George Wallace: 39%
Nelson Rockefeller: 49%

George Wallace: 38%
George Romney: 47%

George Wallace: 41%
John Tower: 48%

George Wallace: 40%
Spiro Agnew: 48%


George McGovern: 40%
Ronald Reagan: 48%

George McGovern: 40%
Nelson Rockefeller: 49%

George McGovern: 40%
George Romney: 47%

George McGovern: 41%
John Tower: 46%

George McGovern: 40%
Spiro Agnew: 47%

[President Johnson]

January 3, 1971: 92nd Congress convenes



Newly elected House Speaker Carl Albert (D-OK)

Two months after the election, the 92nd Congress convened at Capitol Hill. Democrats elected Majority Leader Carl Albert (D-OK) as new speaker, after John McCormack (D-MA) retired from office. Among the newly sworn in senators was former vice president Hubert Humphrey (D-MN).


President Lyndon B. Johnson’s State of the Union Address; January 20, 1971

Exactly two years before his term is set to expire, President Johnson appeared before congress again to deliver his 1971 State of the Union Address.

CLERK: Mr. Speaker, the President of the United States!

[Hail to the chief plays, President Johnson enters chamber]

SPEAKER ALBERT: Mr. Vice President, Members of the House and Senate, it is my high privilege and distinguished honor to present to you the President of the United States.

[Applause]





PRESIDENT JOHNSON: Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, members of Congress, distinguished guests and my fellow Americans:

First, let me congratulate all newly sworn-in members of this body. I look forward to work with each and everyone of you in a spirit of understanding and respect. Let me also congratulate our new House Speaker, Carl Albert.

Today I come before you in a time of transformation. As a new decade has arrived, a new era in the history of our country has begun. We witness a time of transformation at home and abroad. We have not only begun to seek new diplomatic relations to ease tensions and seek peace, we are also at a turning point in our involvement in Vietnam. We have made tremendous progress in the past two and a half years. Tonight, I can proudly report that a final agreement in Paris nears. Now, of course, that doesn’t mean all difficulties are resolved. Nor does it mean, that the path to a final agreement is without any obstacles. But we can proclaim, we have never been so close to a lasting solution than today. I’m confidant, the conflict can and will be ended in a short period of time. At least, when it comes to America. […]

At home, we still have a lot of homework to do. But let me first use this opportunity to thank everybody for the progress we have made. Now we must focus on the challenges ahead. First of all, we have to take action to regain the economic strength of the last decade. That means, we have to spend wisely, tax wisely, but without hurting those in need. Therefore, I reject cuts for programs, millions of Americans depend on. Let us instead work to eliminate waste and restructure our tax system. […] Today I also want to use this opportunity to recommend the passage of constitutional amendment to lower the majority age to 18. […] I will also soon introduce a bill for a reform of the draft. I believe we can suspend the draft over the next years. And I urge you to join me in that effort, while making our armed forces an attractive employer. […]

Thank you for listening, good night, God bless you and the United States of America.


The Republican response



Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA) gave the Republican response to President Johnson's 1971 State of Union Address

In 1971, Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA) gave the Republican response to President Johnson’s State of the Union Address. Schweiker is considered are moderate-to-liberal Republican. The Pennsylvania senator welcomed the president’s proposal for a constitutional amendment to lower the voting age. He also signaled readiness to discuss the draft situation. However, he didn’t hesitate to criticize the administration in various issues: “The president spoke about a lot of things. But he also didn’t speak about many pressing issues in the minds of millions of Americans. There is the problem of law and order. The administration has taken a weak stance on this matter. President Johnson and his cabinet obviously believe it is a matter for cities and states, not for the federal government. I can tell you: He is wrong. The issue needs to addressed. The president and the vice president now refuse this debate for over two years. We have to hold them accountable for this. The ever growing problem of drug abuse is a prime example of this. We need to take bold action to fight drugs. Especially drug abuse in our armed forces has taken an abnormal extension”. Senator Schweiker also spoke of needs for spending cuts to fight inflation and demanded a more far reaching tax relief for most Americans and business. “We have to address the economic slowdown in a much different fashion. The bill passed last year was a minimal census, that doesn’t move us forward”, he commented.


January 26, 1971

BREAKING: Final Paris agreement reached; set for signature on January 31

News in Paris today broke, that a final peace agreement has been reached. The White House confirmed the news later that day. Although Hanoi didn’t comment officially, Radio Moscow also reported that an agreement is scheduled to be signed on January 31. Details of its content will be presented soon. The next day, the Pentagon confirmed, that Secretary Clifford is working on a plan for a complete withdrawal.


White House: President Johnson to address the nation on television on January 30, 1971

A day after the news of a Paris Peace Agreement broke, the White House informed the public, that President Lyndon B. Johnson will address the nation on television on the treaty on January 30 and give some details.

[President Johnson]

Terrific updates! Is George Romney still governor of MI then?

Enjoying the TL

Thanks...

No, Romney retired after two terms from 1963 to 1971. But at that time, there wasn't term limit in Michigan.

[President Johnson]

January 30/31, 1971: President Johnson addresses the nation / peace accords signed



President Johnson during his television address

Representatives of the United States, North and South Vietnam gathered together in Paris to sign the Peace Accords. After more than two years of negotiating, the an agreement has finally been reached. President Johnson addressed the nation the day before directly from the Oval Office.



Paris negotiating table during the signing ceremony; January 31, 1971


The following terms were negotiated:

- All U.S. combat troops will be withdrawn by January 31, 1972

- North Vietnamese forces, including the NLF, immediately stop infiltration of the South. This does not include troops already on Southern territory.

- North Vietnamese forces will not tackle U.S. military bases anymore. The U.S. in return will continue the suspension of all air strikes.

- 15,000 U.S. forces to train South Vietnamese forces are permitted to stay on Southern territory, but are not involved in combat.

- All prisoners of war will be exchanged. All releases will completed by September 30, 1971 at latest. North Vietnamese soldiers must return to the north. All prisoners get improved treatment immediately. Torture will be prohibited and they are entitle of frequent meals.


Negotiations between the parties continue on the following questions:

- A possible process for reunification. Continued talks about a possible reunification of a neutral Vietnam should continue. President Johnson himself pushed this issue, but this is the most unlikely to get resolved. Political expectVietnam to turn out similar to Korea with a permanent two-state solution.

- President Johnson offered North Vietnam to assist the country with their rebuilding, especially removing damages of war. This aid would only include civilian assistance such as building homes, schools or hospitals. The precondition is that the North stops all hostile actions against the United States and its allies for the next years. If such aid would be granted, it would have to be carried out by the next administration. It is very likely that Robert Kennedy would continue this policy if he becomes the next president.

- There will be reviewing process in the in three years of U.S.-North Vietnamese relations. The North asked for this provision to leave to door for normalization of diplomatic relations with the U.S. Possibly that is aimed at China and the USSR, to show North Vietnamese independence.

The accords were welcomed by governments around the world. President Johnson praised Chief Negotiator Cyrus Vance for his efforts and thanked Henry Kissinger, who will stay on as advisor, for his service. He also mentioned North Vietnam’s leading diplomat Le Toc Tho and expressed his thanks for the cooperation. Although he publically supported the agreement, South Vietnamese president Thieu, according to insiders, remains skeptical of the American commitment. A handful of leading conservatives in the United States also criticized the accords. Governor Reagan described it as a “capitulation on rates”. Senator Barry Goldwater even labeled the treaty as “useless, because it only reinstates the status-quo”. He added “we’re now at the same point than in 1963/64, but 30,000 American soldiers are dead.”


Gallup poll, released January 31, 1971

Although released after the Paris signing, the January poll was conducted before the ceremony

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 43%


February 10, 1971: President Johnson signs repeal of Tonkin Resolution

After the president vetoed a bill repealing the Tonkin Resolution last year, he now signed an authorization bill for military withdrawal in Vietnam that includes a repeal of the 1964 resolution. Shortly after, President Johnson proposed a 20% cut in military spending for fiscal year 1972.
 

February 23, 1971: Congress passes 26th Amendment to lower voting age to 18

This February 23, Congress passed the 26th Amendment to lower voting age to 18 years with the necessary two-thirds majorities. The Johnson Administration actively supported the measure. Vice President Kennedy, who presided over the historic senate session, urged the states to ratify the amendment as fast as possible.


Gallup poll, released February 28, 1971

Following the Paris Accords, President Johnson's approval rating experienced a jump.

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 55%
Disapprove: 38%


March 1, 1971: Bipartisan commission to reform presidential primaries appointed


Commission co-chairs: Vice President Kennedy and Governor Laxalt


It has been a priority of Vice President Robert Kennedy since his 1968 presidential run. A decent number of high-profile politicians including President Johnson of both parties agreed for the need to reform the presidential nomination process. This March 1, a bipartisan commission to implement a new nomination process in both parties was appointed. The Commission, headed by Vice President Robert Kennedy (for the Democrats) and Nevada Governor Paul Laxalt (for the Republicans) as co-chairmen, will make specific suggestions and oversee their implementation. At a joint press conference, Governor Laxalt stated the process is scheduled to be finished by the fall of that year. Vice President Kennedy added that there “should be a voting process in each state of the union”.

Members of the Commission are:

- Vice President Robert F. Kennedy, co-chairman (D-NY)
- Governor Paul Laxalt, co-chairman (R-NV)
- Senator Llyod Bentsen (D-TX)
- Governor Reubin Askew (D-FL)
- Governor Albert Brewer (D-AL)
- Senator Walter Mondale (D-MN)
- Representative Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
- Secretary Orville Freeman (D-ME)
- Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)
- Lieutenant Governor Malcolm Wilson (R-NY) (as personal representative of Gov. Nelson Rockefeller)
- Senator and Minority Leader Hugh Scott (R-PA)
- Senator John Tower (R-TX)
- Representative Donald Rumseld (R-IL)
- Former Governor William Scranton (R-PA)
 

March 20, 1971: President Johnson vetoes Republican tax proposal



By March 1971, unemployment rose to 6.2% and inflation to 6.9%. Republicans, encouraged by their gains in last year’s midterms, formed a collation with moderate Democrats to pass an across-the-board tax reduction and spending cuts in both the military and social programs. When presented to the president, LBJ vetoed the measure on March 20. In his veto message, he outlined his opposition to deeper cuts in domestic programs and demanded tax cuts “only for hard working people”.

Several Republicans including more liberal ones criticized the president. Governor Ronald Reagan, a potential 1972 presidential contender, spoke of “irresponsibility and recklessness at the highest level”. He demanded even deeper tax and spending cuts. “America can’t take this tax and spend policy much longer”, he added.


Gallup poll, released March 31, 1971

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 41%


April 14, 1971: Senator John Tower won’t run for president



He’s out before he’s in: Senator John Tower (R-TX), Richard Nixon’s 1968 running mate, publically declined to run for president in 1972. “I will fully be focused on winning reelection to the senate next year”, he said. When asked, Senator Tower declined to name any preferred candidate of his party but said he would fully support the eventual Republican nominee.


April 21, 1971: White House supported tax bill fails in House



A tax bill pushed forward by the Johnson Administration failed to pass the house by a 225 to 213 vote. The measure would have cut taxes for low and middle-income Americans and contained minor cuts to social programs. However, enough Republicans and moderate Democrats regarded the proposal as not far reaching enough and voted it down on the floor of the house. Several GOP senators and Harry F. Byrd (I-VA) announced, they would filibuster the bill in the senate if passed by the house.


Gallup poll, released April 30, 1971

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 43%


May 1, 1971: Number of U.S. troops in Vietnam drops below 100,000

For the first time since 1965, less than 100,000 U.S. combat troops remain in Vietnam. As of May 1, 1971, there were 97,000 men left. According to the Pentagon, the withdrawal moves on swiftly. Immediately after the signing of Paris, President Johnson ordered appropriate steps to be taken.

[President Johnson]

May 4, 1971 – 8.35 a.m. BREAKING: President Johnson suffers massive heart attack – hospitalized and in very serious condition



Breaking News from the White House: President Lyndon B. Johnson reportedly suffered a massive heart attack this morning after having breakfast in his bedroom. The attack occurred between 8 a.m. when Lady Bird Johnson left the room and 8.15 a.m. According to White House insiders, the chief executive was found lying on the floor of his bedroom by a Secret Service agent. The agent immediately made an emergency call. Just minutes later, the 62 year old president was moved to Bethesda Naval Hospital in Washington. Details are not made public to this moment, but President Johnson’s condition is very serious. It is not the first time that LBJ suffered a heart attack; the first was in 1955 while serving in the senate. Back then, he just barely escaped from death. Afterwards, he improved his lifestyle, like quitting smoking cigarettes. He didn't resume smoking to this day, but it Mr. Johnson is known as a workaholic, often being busy for more than 16 hours a day. And even though he spends a lot of his time at the LBJ Ranch in Texas, the president is at work there as well.

Just within minutes, Vice President Robert Kennedy at a meeting in New York City was informed of the situation. According to his staff, the vice president will immediately return to Washington and evaluate the situation. Secretary of State Nicholas Katzenbach received a phone call while a visit in London. His return to the United States is also considered. Meanwhile, Chief of Staff Paul Nitze assembled with Attorney General Ramsey Clark, Secretary of Defense Clark Clifford, Secretary of the Interior Steward Udall and Treasury Secretary Joseph Barr for discussions. The rest of the cabinet is not in Washington at the moment. It is expected that Vice President Kennedy informs the public after his return to the capital.

More details in short.

[President Johnson]

LBJ's pass health problems have come back to bite him.

Yeah, he had two surgerys in 1965 and 1966. And in his memoirs, he wrote that he was always afraid of being alone in a room because of his heart.

Interesting is also that he joked when signing the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which was the ninth anniversity of his heart attack. Almost exactly nine years later, he would be dead.

[President Johnson]

May 4, 1971 - 10.50 a.m. BREAKING: 25th amendment invoked: Robert Kennedy is acting president



As the 25th Amendment has been invoked, Vice President Kennedy has formaly assumed presidential powers and duties


After Vice President Robert Kennedy returned to Washington at around 10.05 a.m. EST, he immediately meet with White House Chief of Staff Paul Nitze, Attorney General Clark, Secretaries Clifford, Barr, Freeman and Udall. He also briefly spoke to the First Lady and invited House Speaker Carl Albert, Senate president pro tempore Allen Ellender, House Minority Leader Gerald Ford and Senate Leaders Mike Mansfield and Hugh Scott to the cabinet meeting for discussions. After receiving word from the hospital about President Johnson’s condition, the cabinet decided to invoke the 25th amendment of United States constitution. All members of the administration agreed to the move, including those outside Washington, after being informed by phone. Secretary Katzenbach is already on his way back to Washington.

Accordingly, President Johnson’s condition is so serious, that he is unable to function as president and commander-in-chief. With the invocation, presidential authority is temporally transferred to Vice President Kennedy. RFK was also put in charge to take control over the nuclear codes. The White House announced, the vice president will give a press statement this afternoon after consultations with all important department heads and the military.


Vice President Robert Kennedy addresses the nation



Vice President Kennedy during his address at the White House


At 2.45 p.m., Vice President Robert Francis Kennedy, as acting president, invited the press to the White House East Room to give a statement on the current situation.

VICE PRESIDENT KENNEDY: Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, my fellow Americans:

Today is sad day for our nation. This morning, while in New York City, I was informed that President Johnson suffered a severe heart attack in his bedroom shortly after breakfast. The president fell into a state of unconsciousness. After being found by a Secret Service Agent, he was rushed to Bethesda Naval hospital for immediate treatment. As I have been told, his condition has been stabilized, but is still very critical. Furthermore, President Johnson must undergo a complicated heart surgery this afternoon. This surgery is risky, but necessary to reduce to make another heart attack with unknown consequences far less likely.

Following my return, I have consulted, in person and via phone, with all members of the cabinet and congressional leaders of both parties about the next steps taken. Our discussions were guided by the question, how we could guarantee a full functioning of the federal government. Accordingly, we have concluded that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office at this moment. In light of these developments, we agreed that it is absolutely necessary for someone to be in charge, so that potential incidents of any kind can be managed quickly and effectively. We also regarded it as necessary to ensure the American public, that the executive branch fully functions. In addition, we say to potential advisories: Don’t test us. As prescribed in the 25th Amendment of the United States constitution, I have recommended to the cabinet to declare the president as incapable of executing his powers and duties and dissolve the same upon the vice president until such a state has concluded by President Johnson’s own declaration. The suggestion was agreed to unanimously. Therefore, as vice president, I have taken formal control of presidential powers and duties. Immediately after, I received important briefings on national security matters. As long as President Johnson is in this critical condition, I will stay in the White House, consult with members of the cabinet, the military and congressional leaders. To the public I can say: There is no reason to worry with regard the government’s business.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is a situation unprecedented in our almost 200 year history. The 25th Amendment has not been adopted in 1955, when President Eisenhower suffered a heart attack and Vice President Nixon took informal control of the White House. However, the Johnson/Kennedy Administration is not unprepared. In the weeks before the inauguration in 1969, President Johnson invited me to a private conversation and spoke of steps to be taken in such a potential situation. He was well aware of the treat of a heart attack and wanted to prevent any situation in which the presidential powers and duties hang in the balance. The president, who had the same secret agreement with Vice President Humphrey, was determined to take care in advance for such a scenario and urged me to invoke the amendment with approval of the cabinet whenever I feel necessary. Our nation can be proud of this president, who, in such a tragic personal situation, was most concerned about the well-being of our country. In any case, we owe President Johnson a deep gratitude. We hope and pray for his fast and full recovery. I personally will not forget when President Johnson stood here, at the White House and at my bed and prayed for me. That was three years ago. Now I believe, it is my obligation to do the same for him and his family.

Thank you, good afternoon, and god bless the United States of America.
 

Afternoon: President Johnson undergoes surgery



The White House published this photograph of President Johnson after the surgery while his wife Lady Bird stands by


As Bethesda Naval Hospital confirmed, President Johnson will undergo a complicated heart surgery that is scheduled for several hours. The treatment isn’t without a risk, but doing nothing would, as the doctors said, almost lead to another – possibly fatal – heart attack, possibly even before LBJ’s term is up in January 1973. Although the press was excluded from the hospital building, some photographs were published by the White House.

At 8.45 p.m., the public was informed that the surgery went without complications and the president was put in a coma for 24 hours to recover. It was also reported, the president would fully recover from today’s heart attack thanks to the quick response of the Secret Service Agent. For the moment, though, his condition remains critical and the main focus afterwards must be to prevent further heart attacks, because he “won’t survive another one” (as a doctor was informally quoted).

[President Johnson]

May 5, 1971 – BREAKING: U.S. passenger ship taken hostage by North Korea in international waters, major test for Kennedy as acting president



Acting president Kennedy on the phone to discuss the hostage crisis

Has it something to do with President Johnson’s temporary incapacity? It will never be known for sure, but it is possible, if not likely. The U.S. civilian passenger ship “Pacific Special” has been taken hostage in international waters on its route between South Korea and the Philippines. 257 people are on board, including the crew. 220 of them are Americans, 21 Canadians, 5 Mexicans and eleven others from various countries in Europe including France, the U.K. and West Germany. Shortly after, North Korea claimed the ship violated its territorial integrity and accused the U.S. of a secret espionage operation.

Vice President Kennedy, who acts as president and has not left the White House since assuming the role, was immediately informed. With President Johnson unable to function, it is up to RFK to take care of the situation.


May 6, 1971: Vice President Kennedy reportedly orders special forces to free hostages

“I will not allow this regime to humiliate the United States during these few days I’m at helm”, the vice president was quoted upon giving the order to free the hostages through force. Nothing was made public about the decision, but informal information was spread this morning. The White House confirmed that “all options are on the table” and that RFK met with members of the cabinet, National Security Advisor Walt Rostow as well as military leaders to discuss the situation. The vice president was also presented the option of setting an ultimatum for the communist regime, but he instead decided to intervene immediately as long as the hostages are still all on board the ship.


“Am I dead or what?”

“Am I dead or what?”, these were President Johnson’s first words when he wake up this afternoon. After a complicated surgery, the president awoke this afternoon. His wife and daughters were on his side. Later Secretary of State Katzenbach visited the hospital and assured President Johnson that RFK would be in charge of governing. It is not know whether the Secretary informed LBJ about the hostage crisis. But it seemed as they agreed the 25th amendment would remain invoked for few more days until the president was in better condition.

Later that day, Bobby Kennedy reportedly phoned the president. But nothing about their conversation was made public.


May 6, 1971; 6.30 a.m. – BREAKING: Hostage crisis ended, Robert Kennedy praised



This photo of the U.S. marines was published after the liberation of the ship

Early in the morning, the vice president who looked tired after he supposedly got very sleep this night, informed about the public about the hostage crisis. According to the acting president, all hostages were freed. 19 North Korean soldiers were killed, another 15 were captured by American forces. In addition, three U.S. marines were injured, one seriously, and five hostages were also wounded. They are expected to return to the United States within the next few days. RFK also warned the regime that further such actions would lead to “severe consequences” and that President Johnson would decide whether additional consequences such as sanctions are considered.

Meanwhile, Vice President Kennedy received bi-partisan praise for his role in the hostage crisis. “He took care of this situation with a clear mind and resolve and made a wise decision”, said Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield (D-MT). Even Senator Goldwater (R-AZ), a vocal critic of the administration, expressed his respect for Bobby Kennedy. “Well done”, said Governor Reagan (R-CA). And freshman Senator Lawton Chiles (D-FL) already came out with a statement, that he would support a Kennedy 1972 presidential campaign, as did former Governor Terry Sanford (D-NC).
 

May 8, 1971: President Johnson back in charge, returns to White House within one week



President Johnson after he took back control of his powers and duties in his hospital room

After consultations with his doctors and the cabinet, President Johnson today signed a formal letter that he is capable of governing again. With this formal declaration, presidential powers and duties were returned to LBJ. He decided to stay a few more days in hospital. Later the day, he met with the vice president, cabinet members and congressional leaders in his room to discuss foreign and domestic affairs. In a public statement, he praised RFK’s role during the hostage crisis.
 

May 15, 1971: President Johnson returns to White House, awards Secret Service Agent with Medal of Freedom, urges passage of tax bill



President Lyndon B. Johnson awards the Secret Service Agent, who found him after the heart attack, with the Medal of Freedom

Eleven days after the near fatal heart attack, President Lyndon B. Johnson returned to the White House. It seemed as the chief executive has almost fully recovered. The president was welcomed back to the White House with a huge applause from members of his administration and staff as well White House employees. During a reception given that afternoon, the president awarded James Coburn with the Medal of Freedom. Coburn was the Secret Service Agent who found the president on the ground after suffering the attack. Thanks to his quick response, LBJ received immediate treatment and was able to survive without lasting consequences. This is the second time, President Johnson awarded a Secret Service Agent for saving him. He already awarded Rufus Youngblood in 1963, who pushed then-vice president Johnson to the floor of his car while President Kennedy was shot in Dallas.
 
During his address, the president once again urged congress to pass his tax reform proposal to battle inflation and a down-turning economy. It looked as the president is determined to use the current momentum following the heart attack for his political purposes.

[President Johnson]

Gallup polls, released May 31, 1971

As we're moving closer to election year 1972, polling intervalls become shorter. By late May 1971, President Johnson seemingly benefits from his heart attack at the polls. Meanwhile, Vice President Kennedy's numbers reached new heights due to his performance as acting president.

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 56%
Disapprove: 38%

Question: Do you approve or disapprove President Johnson's handling of foreign policy?
Approve: 57%
Disapprove: 37%

Question: Do you approve or disapprove President Johnson's handling of the Vietnam War?
Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 42%

Question: Do you approve or disapprove President Johnson's handling of the economy?
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 48%

Question: Do you approve or disapprove Robert Kennedy's performance as vice president?
Approve: 58%
Disapprove: 36%


1972 congressional elections – generic ballot

For which candidate would you vote in the congressional elections?

Democrat: 49%
Republican: 44%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

Democratic Party presidential nomination

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 40%
Former Vice President Hubert Humphrey: 23%
Former Governor George Wallace: 15%
Senator George McGovern: 7%
Senator Henry M. "Scoop" Jackson: 5%
Undecided/others: 10%


Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Ronald Reagan: 27%
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 24%
Governor George Romney: 16%
Governor Spiro Agnew: 13%
Governor Paul Laxalt: 6%
Undecided/Others: 14%

[President Johnson]

Fascinating and Brilliant TL. I always wondered what would have happened if Kennedy had joined LBJ in 1964 (rather than '68 as in this) and it gives a good portrayal.

That's a fascinating question. I would have prefered RFK as VP in 1964, although Humphrey was also a great guy. They didn't like each other on a personal level because they were different and RFK opposed his borther's 1960 decision to pick Johnson for the VP spot, but they had much in common politically. Especially on civil rights, where Bobby had likely more in common with LBJ than his brother (according to Nicholas Katzenbach).

[President Johnson]

June 8, 1971: Revenue Act of 1971 signed into law



On June 8, 1971, President Johnson signs the tax bill into law


It may sound obscure, but President Johnson’s heart attack and momentum resulting from it obviously helped him in passing a tax bill. Although inflation and unemployment’s raise slowed down over the last two months, the president vigorously pushed for a tax bill without major cuts to social programs. Under the Revenue Act of 1971, lower and middle incomes received a 20% tax break. On the other hand, spending cuts for the military were possible due the ongoing withdrawal in Vietnam. Funds for space exploration were also cut. The legislation passed the house 230 – 202 and the senate 55 – 45.


June 29, 1971: 26th Amendment enacted



After more than 38 states ratified the 26th Amendment of the U.S. constitution, it could be enacted during a White House ceremony given by Vice President Kennedy. The amendment lowers the majority age from 21 to 18 in the United States and therefore making it possible for 18 year olds to vote. It remains to be seen how that plays out in the 1972 election.

According to a Gallup poll, the amendment is supported by 83% of Americans. The numbers also show virtually no difference between Democrats and Republicans. Both sides support the measure by a wide margin.


Gallup poll, released June 30, 1971

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 55%
Disapprove: 39%


July 4, 1971: Pentagon Papers leaked!



The United States is already withdrawing from the Vietnam, but the issue became a big headline in the news again, and in a fashion, the administration won't like. The New York Times began publishing excerpts on this Independence Day 1971. The July 4 article is named "Vietnam Archive: Pentagon Study Traces Three Decades of Growing US Involvement”. The so-called Pentagon Papers are a Department of Defense history of the United States' political-military involvement in Vietnam from 1945 to 1967. After the release, Street protests followed. One media observer wrote that  “the Kennedy and Johnson Administrations systematically lied, not only to the public but also to Congress”.

It was quickly revealed that a former employee of the Pentagon named Daniel Ellsberg was behind the publications. President Johnson declined for any public comment, but was, according to White House insiders, furious about the leak. He is quoted with the words "I want that SOB on a silver tablet and throw the traitor in jail". Members of the administration including Attorney General Ramsey Clark argued Ellsberg and his friend Russo were guilty of a felony under the Espionage Act of 1917, because they had no authority to publish classified documents. White House Chief of Staff Paul Nitze threatened the New York Times with a lawsuit if they continue to publish content of the secret papers.


Further developments regarding the Pentagon Papers during July 1971:



President Johnson, visibly angry, during a press statement: "Publication of top-secret material is illegal and will be punished"


After the Times continued to publish material in the following days, the mood in the White House became increasingly exasperated. Nevertheless, no significant statements were made public. The president’s press team only commented that “appropriate steps will be taken”. Even Vice President Kennedy remained silent on the issue. Some anti-war protesters hoped the vice president would come out and criticize the previous administration of President Johnson, but also the administration of his brother. When asked by a reporter, RFK only commented that “leaking restricted material is dangerous”.

After failing to persuade the Times to voluntarily cease publication on July 15, Attorney General Ramsey Clark obtained a federal court injunction forcing the Times to cease publication after three articles. The newspaper appealed the injunction, and the case New York Times Co. v. United States quickly rose through the U.S. legal system to the Supreme Court. On July 21, 1971, the Washington Post began publishing its own series of articles based upon the Pentagon Papers; Ellsberg had given portions to the D.C. based newspaper. The next day, President Johnson himself demanded publically the suspension of material. “There is a reason these papers are classified as top secret. Any publication violates existing law and will be punished under the law”, he stated.

On July 31, the Supreme Court rejected the administration’s lawsuit in a five – four decision. The court argued that that the government failed to meet the heavy burden of proof required for prior restraint injunction. As White House interns told, the president was furious and demanded FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover, his personal friend, to take action against Ellsberg and other leakers. "I'm sick and tired of this crap", he reportely said to Hoover, who agreed.


July 31, 1971: A lot of new polling!

The Pentagon Papers obviously put an end to the president's rise in the polls. Although he's a member of the administration and didn't distance himself from the Pentogan Papers, RFK continues lead the Democratic field for 1972. He also maintains a fair approval rating.

Gallup polls, released July 31, 1971

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 45%

Question: Do you approve or disapprove President Johnson's handling of foreign policy?
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 43%

Question: Do you approve or disapprove President Johnson's handling of the economy?
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 47%

Question: Do you approve or disapprove Robert Kennedy's performance as vice president?
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 41%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

Democratic Party presidential nomination

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 38%
Senator Hubert Humphrey: 25%
Former Governor George Wallace: 14%
Senator George McGovern: 7%
Senator Henry M. "Scoop" Jackson: 5%
Undecided/others: 11%


Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 26%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 25%
Governor Spiro Agnew: 14%
Governor George Romney: 11%
Senator Richard Schweiker¹: 6%
Undecided/Others: 13%

¹ = not included in previous polls


General election match-ups

This time, only Robert Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey were polled among Democrats.

Robert F. Kennedy: 46%
Ronald Reagan: 44%

Robert F. Kennedy: 47%
Nelson Rockefeller: 45%

Robert F. Kennedy: 47%
George Romney: 44%

Robert F. Kennedy: 47%
Spiro Agnew: 44%


Hubert Humphrey: 44%
Ronald Reagan: 44%

Hubert Humphrey: 44%
Nelson Rockefeller: 45%

Hubert Humphrey: 45%
George Romney: 44%

Hubert Humphrey: 47%
Spiro Agnew: 44%

[President Johnson]

Great updates! I liked how RFK handled his brief acting presidency. Pentagon Papers are also interesting.

This is one of the best timelines I ever read. Keep it up!

Thanks guys!

[President Johnson]

August 1971: Further publications of Pentagon Papers, Ellsberg on the run



After all legal options to halt the publications of the Pentagon Papers failed, the major newspapers continued to make them public. Meanwhile, Daniel Ellsberg, who leaked the material, has disappeared. Administration- and FBI officials urged him to report to legal authorities. The administration remained largely silent on the material itsself. National Security Advisor Walt Rostow pointed out that the motive for intervention in Vietnam has always been to promote peace and resist aggresion by the communist regime in North Vietnam. When asked why he backs off from this discussion, President Johnson said he would be open to debate the issue after emotions "cool down" and an objective discussion is possible. "So far, I have nothing to say what I didn't already say", he added.


August 9, 1971: Secretary Katzenbach: Negotiations with USSR will last to February 1972; President Johnson to invite Soviet leadership



In 1969, the United States and Soviet Union begun arms limitation negotiations in Geneva as a direct result of President Johnson’s Moscow visit in December 1968. The talks were originally scheduled for completion this summer. Now, both sides agreed to prolong the talks until February 1972. As Secretary of State Katzenbach and Foreign Minister Gromyko confirmed, “substantial progress to limit conventional weapon systems were made”. However, a few more months are needed to work out the details. The Soviet Leadership reassured the Johnson Administration their willingness to complete the treaty before the 1972 presidential campaign goes into its decisive phase.

The next day, President Johnson officially invited Secretary General Brezhnev to the United States for the signing ceremony early next year. The Soviet leader accepted the offer, after the signing ceremony was originally planned for Geneva.

Some media observers called the announcement as a move by the administration, to distract from the Pentagon Papers.


August 31, 1971: Number of U.S. troops in Vietnam sinks below 50,000; plans for draft ending legislation in the making



U.S. troops leaving Vietnam


47,150 American soldiers were left in Vietnam by late August 1971. As the Pentagon confirmed, the withdrawal plans are ahead of schedule. July and August 1971 had the fewest U.S. casualties in Vietnam since late 1964. Secretary Clifford also confirmed that the cease fire is largely effective.

The administration is also reportedly in the final stages on working out legislation for a suspension of the draft. President Johnson intends to renew structures in the army, so that a voluntary army becomes an attractive employer.


Gallup polls, released August 31, 1971

For the first time in three years, President Johnson's net approval rating went negative. The main reason is obviously the publication of the Pentagon Papers, which hurts public confidence in government.

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 48%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

(only candidates listed with at least 5% support)


Democratic Party presidential nomination

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 36%
Senator Hubert Humphrey: 27%
Former Governor George Wallace: 15%
Senator George McGovern: 8%
Senator Henry M. "Scoop" Jackson: 6%
Undecided/others: 8%


Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 28%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 24%
Governor Spiro Agnew: 15%
Former Governor George Romney: 12%
Senator Richard Schweiker: 5%
Undecided/Others: 16%


General election match-ups


Robert F. Kennedy: 45%
Ronald Reagan: 45%

Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
Nelson Rockefeller: 45%

Robert F. Kennedy: 45%
George Romney: 42%

Robert F. Kennedy: 45%
Spiro Agnew: 44%


Hubert Humphrey: 43%
Ronald Reagan: 46%

Hubert Humphrey: 41%
Nelson Rockefeller: 45%

Hubert Humphrey: 42%
George Romney: 44%

Hubert Humphrey: 44%
Spiro Agnew: 44%


September 3, 1971: Governor Spiro Agnew runs for president!



“I am running for president to seek new policies. To strengthen and improve the American standing at home and abroad. To fight crime, to make government more efficient and the servant of the people, to promote growth and prosperity”, said Governor Spiro Agnew (R-MD) upon announcing his run for the presidency. Governor Agnew served since 1967 as the chief executive of Maryland and governed as a pragmatist. As a pro-civil-rights Republican with a conservative leaning economic philosophy, he may appeal to both major factions of his party. In his speech, he also found harsh words for government leakers and called Daniel Ellsberg a traitor.

However, it remains to be seen how he will perform between the two overwhelming favorites, his colleagues Ronald Reagan and Nelson Rockefeller. Both have not officially announced their campaigns so far, but are expected to do so in the closing months of this year (anything else would be a huge surprise). In 1968, Governor Agnew first endorsed Rockefeller and then switched to Nixon, who seriously considered him for the second spot on the GOP ticket until picking John Tower in the end. As of now it is unclear from which side – the Gipper or Rocky – the man from Maryland will take more support. Before his announcement, Agnew polled in low double digits, but at third place. He could be the kingmaker in the end, or, what would be a great upset, beat Rockefeller and Reagan from the middle.

As insiders reported, the bipartisan commission on reforming the presidential primaries will soon present its results. It's almost certain at this point that each state will hold a primary or caucus in one form or another.

[President Johnson]

September 8, 1971: Congress passes and President Johnsons signs first post-Vietnam budget



President Johnson signs the budget into law

At the end of one month long negotiations, congress adopted the first post-Vietnam budget, that President Johnson approved with his signature on September 8, 1971. The president and his chief of staff formed a broad coalition of the center to enact the budget. Some left-leaning members of congress like Senator George McGovern (D-SD) voted against the budget because they opposed the freeze in domestic spending and demanded more budget cuts for the military. The Pentagon’s funds were cut by 15% for fiscal year 1972. Conservatives like James L. Buckley (Con-NY) or Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) also voted against the bill since they called for more cuts in social programs. Nevertheless, the budget is expected not to exceed 4.5 billion dollars in the red.


September 9 – 13, 1971: Attica Prison Riot in New York State – challenge for Governor Rockefeller



Governor Nelson Rockefeller: Did he go too far with his tough stance in Attica?

Attica State Prison, New York: On September 9, 1971, about 1,000 of the Attica prison's approximately 2,200 inmates rioted and took control of the prison, taking 42 staff hostage. The involved prisoners demanded better treatment and more rights after a series of incidents in other state prisons that resulted in the killing of other prisoners. Negotiations between the authorities and involved men first seemed to move through successfully, as some of their demands were agreed to. Nevertheless, legal authorities and Governor Nelson Rockefeller rejected calls for a complete amnesty from criminal prosecution for the prison takeover. On September 13, Governor Rockefeller ordered the state police took back control of the prison by the use violence. When the uprising was over, at least 43 people were dead, including 10 correctional officers and civilian employees, and 33 inmates.

With his tough stance, Governor Rockefeller, reportedly preparing for a 1972 presidential run, alienated many liberals in the country. However, President Johnson publically supported the governor’s decision, as did most conservatives of his party, like rival Ronald Reagan. Vice President Kennedy said some demands of the prisoners were justified, but rejected their use of violence. Senator and former vice president Hubert Humphrey denounced Rocky’s decision and criticized that the governor refused to go to Attica in person.

Whether the incident will have an effect on Mr. Rockefeller’s presidential ambitions has to be seen.


September 20, 1971: Bipartisan commission to reform presidential primaries finishes work successfully

The bipartisan commission to reform the nominating process during presidential primaries under the leadership of Vice President Kennedy and Nevada Governor Laxalt presented their results this September 20, shorty before the 1972 presidential campaign will take steam. The two chairmen, joined by other high-profile Democrats and Republicans across the spectrum, introduced the following plan to the American public:

- Both major parties will hold primaries and caucuses in all U.S. states including the District of Columbia.

- During primaries and caucuses delegates for the nominating conventions will be awared.

- The method of allocating will be determined by each state under state law. The same is applying to the dates of the primaries. However, the time frame is from February to June.

- The commission held various meetings with all 50 state governors and members of the state legislature to ensure a fast and swift implementation. Some states already worked out legislation that is ready for passage. Vice President Kennedy urged states to enact such laws not later than December this year.

- The National Party Committees support the plan and lobby for passage.

The public overwhelmingly supports the reformed process. A Gallup poll from late September found that 85% of the American electorate supports the plan. 83% of Democrats and 86% of Republicans are in favor. The media also reported favorably about the results and praised the commission members for their bipartisanship, knowing that some members might soon battle each other for the nomination and later the White House.

President Johnson publically praised his vice president for his role in the process. When asked whether this is an endorsement for Bobby, he said “no”, but added “Bobby would make a great president”.


Governor Reagan and Vice President Kennedy joke about their presidential ambitions at the press conference

"When will you announce to run for president?" a reporter promptly asked the vice president before the press conference came to an end. "This is not the time to talk about personal ambitions", the vice president responded with a smile. "Why aren't you asking me the same question?", Governor Reagan joked. A laughter was going through the room. Kennedy looked at Reagan "You are going to run, governor?". The Gipper smiled and just said "You will find out November 7, 1972". Again, a laughter was going through the room at Capitol Hill. "Let's come back to the subject", commented a laughing Governor Laxalt...


Gallup polls, released September 30, 1971

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 49%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

Polls showed little move on the Democratic side. Vice President Kennedy is still the favorite for the nomination and possibly the presidency, with Senator and former vice president Hubert Humphrey in a strong second place. On the Republican side, Governor Rockefeller lost support and Governor Ronald Reagan surged to first place again. After his announcement, Governor Spiro Agnew received extensive media attention and gained in the polls, where is now just a few points behind Rocky. Possibly his support among the liberal wing surged after Rocky's setback in Attica. Senator Richard Schweiker, a liberal, could not benefit from this trend, though it is not certain that he will even run for office. Senator Schweiker has largely avoided any comments about potential presidential ambitions. Nevertheless, he may become relevant for the vice presidential spot once the nominee is determined. Especially if a conservative is heading the ticket.

(Only candidates listed with at least 5% support)


Democratic Party presidential nomination

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 38%
Senator Hubert Humphrey: 24%
Former Governor George Wallace: 15%
Senator George McGovern: 10%
Senator Henry M. "Scoop" Jackson: 5%
Undecided/others: 8%


Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Ronald Reagan: 29%
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 24%
Governor Spiro Agnew: 21%
Former Governor George Romney: 13%
Undecided/Others: 13%

No general election match-ups were polled this month.


October 1, 1971: General William Westmoreland runs for the Republican nomination!



General Westmoreland on television: "I'm running to rebuild America's strenght"

This came as surprise to almost the entire political and media elite: General William Westmoreland announced on this first day in October that will seek the Republican nomination for president. Mr. Westmoreland was commanding general in Vietnam from 1964 to 1968. He was dismissed by President Johnson in 1968 and became Chief of Staff of the Army until his resignation last year. Obvouisly, he wants to become Eisenhower 2.0 by running, though Ike was much more popular at the time of his election to the White House in 1952. Westmoreland, who critics label as “General Waste-more-men”, was the architect of the failed military strategy in Vietnam until 1968. In his announcement speech, the general sharply criticized the moderated policies towards the USSR and Red China and advocated a strong defense policy, opposing budget cuts for the Pentagon by the Johnson Administration. Domestically, General Westmoreland called for budget cuts across the board, except defense, and tax reliefs for businesses.

It remains to be seen how his low-budget campaign with a small staff will perform against the GOP favorites. A New York Times journalist described the campaign as “PR-Stunt” and suggested the general has actually an eye on the vice presidency or the Pentagon under a Ronald Reagan administration. Westmoreland was not included in any poll so far.

[President Johnson]

Autumn is heating up!


October 5, 1971: All the way with HHH – Senator Hubert Humphrey launches presidential campaign!



Compassion and equal rights were the premises by Senator and former vice president Hubert Humphrey upon launching his 1972 presidential campaign

“Today, my fellow Americans, I announce my candidacy for the presidency of the United States”, were his first words. Nobody was really surprised when Senator and former vice president Hubert Humphrey announced his candidacy for president at a rally in Minneapolis, Minnesota, where he once served as mayor before entering the U.S. senate. In his address, joined by a crowd of over 5,000 enthusiastic supporters, the former vice president spoke about his record in the senate and as President Johnson’s second-in-command between 1965 and 1969. He mentioned civil rights, education and social safety. Senator Humphrey presented himself as a true liberal from Minnesota, driven by “compassion and a joy for politics”, who wants to continue LBJ’s agenda. “Let us fight for an all-inclusive America”, Senator Humphrey told his supporters. His speech was mainly positive, as he didn’t mention the Republicans at all. He also praised his fellow Democrats and emphasized the need to go through a “fair nominating process” and “a united force in the general election”.

After sitting Vice President Robert Kennedy, Senator Humphrey is the second most likely nominee of his party and Bobby’s most formidable opponent. RFK hasn’t declared his candidacy and avoided comments on the subject, but he is expected to throw his hat in the ring within the next weeks or months.

Right after his announcement, Senator Humphrey received the endorsement of several notable unions accross the country.


October 15, 1971: President Johnson signs landmark Armed Forces Modernization Act



A suspension of the draft and a modernization of the armed forces is the main content of the act, President Johnson signs into law on October 15, 1971

Finally, with a 274 – 145 vote in the House and a 64 – 35 vote in the Senate, congress approved the Armed Forces Modernization Act of 1971. The passed version is almost the same than proposed by the Johnson Administration. The law, going into effect on January 1, 1972, sets the framework the end the military draft that exists since 1940. The law requires to suspend the military draft between December 31, 1973 and December 31, 1976. The president is authorized to determine the exact date through executive action. The bill also includes provisions for a reform process within the armed forces to make them an attractive employer. That includes a higher number of vacation days and certain other privileges for servants and their direct relatives.

President Johnson signed the landmark legislation on October 15, 1971 at a White House ceremony. The president noted that he intends to issue a decree within the next few months to determine the formal date after discussions with the Pentagon. He also thanked congress in particular and praised Vice President Kennedy, who was a staunch advocate for his step ever since 1968, for his role in the process.  


October 25, 1971: Senator George McGovern enters presidential contest!



Senator George McGovern (D-SC) at his campaign kick-off rally

Senator George McGovern (D-SD) was well known for his critics of President Johnson’s Vietnam pre-1969 policy and a staunch liberal. Not surprising to political observers, he declared his candidacy for the Democratic nomination next year this October 25. In his speech, the senator emphasized the need to increase efforts in the war on poverty and a greater access to health care. Senator McGovern also positioned himself as a dove on foreign policy. He praised President Johnson’s post-1969 foreign policy, but also said “the U.S. sent confusing signals around the world these past ten years”. He added: “I stand for a policy that intends to work for peace by bold action”. However, he didn’t outline specific policy proposals in his speech. Senator McGovern is an outsider for the nomination and appeals to a similar voter group than Eugene McCarthy did four years ago.


October 26, 1971: The Gipper is in! Governor Reagan to seek presidency



A new direction demands Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA) at his first campaign event

“My fellow Americans: With a deep awareness of the trust millions of you put in me in one form or another, I announce my intention to seek the Republican nomination for President of the United States”, told Governor Ronald Reagan to a crowd by launching his campaign at an event in San Diego, California. Surrounded by at least 7,000 cheering supporters, Governor Reagan focused on his criticism of the Johnson Administration. “Today, America has taken a direction, that was neither intended by our founders, nor does it solve our true problems. Mr. Johnson and Mr. Kennedy tell us that government programs, funded by the working men and women and business, are the solution to everything. The actual result is an unpreceded bureaucracy, taxes that go through the roof and a rising unemployment and inflation. I offer a different path. A path of prosperity, self determination and freedom […]”. On foreign policy: “What Mr. Johnson and Mr. Kennedy have done on the world stage is dangerous. Mr. Johnson and Mr. Kennedy bear the responsibility for weakened defense, a selling out of American values to forces of evil that hold their people in slavery. In return, we get nothing but empty words and a so-called peace treaty in Paris, that won’t be lasting for half a decade […]”. The Gipper finished his speech: “Ladies and Gentlemen: It is time to take the responsibility in our own hands and return the true national greatness, so that America can be that shining city upon a hill.”

Political observers around the country, including liberal ones, described Governor Reagan’s campaign announcement as a “pure success”. The Gipper hold an authentic speech and his supporters were fired up by his words. He’s definitely the greatest favorite for the nomination, along with New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller. Rocky is, as unofficial sources claim, announcing his candidacy in the final weeks of this year after the New York State Legislature has adjourned the current session. Once Rocky is in, the stage is set for the battle for the future of the Republican Party. And it won’t be an easy fight for either side. With an unforeseeable outcome.


October 31, 1971: A ton of new polls! Released by Gallup

The recent legislative success to end the draft obviously benefits President Johnson. With regard to the upcoming presidential campaign, Hubert Humphrey experiences a surge in the polls after his announcement. On the Republican side, Ronald Reagan widens his previous lead and polls best among Republicans for general election now.

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 45%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

(only declared candidates or potential contenders with at least 5% support listed)

Democratic Party presidential nomination

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 35%
Senator Hubert Humphrey: 31%
Former Governor George Wallace: 11%
Senator George McGovern: 11%
Undecided/others: 12%


Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Ronald Reagan: 33%
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 25%
Governor Spiro Agnew: 22%
Governor George Romney: 7%
General William Westmoreland¹: 6%
Undecided/Others: 7%

¹ = not included in previous polls


General election match-ups

Robert F. Kennedy: 43%
Ronald Reagan: 46%

Robert F. Kennedy: 43%
Nelson Rockefeller: 43%

Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
Spiro Agnew: 45%

Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
William Westmoreland: 39%


Hubert Humphrey: 43%
Ronald Reagan: 45%

Hubert Humphrey: 44%
Nelson Rockefeller: 42%

Hubert Humphrey: 42%
Spiro Agnew: 43%

Hubert Humphrey: 43%
William Westmoreland: 39%


George McGovern: 41%
Ronald Reagan: 46%

George McGovern: 42%
Nelson Rockefeller: 44%

George McGovern: 42%
Spiro Agnew: 45%

George McGovern: 40%
William Westmoreland: 40%

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: October 31, 1971 – Daniel Ellsberg surrenders to legal authorities



Pentagon Papers leader Daniel Ellsberg talking to reports after his surrender to legal authorities; October 31, 1971

Pentagon Papers leaker Daniel Ellsberg surrendered to legal authorities in Boston, Massachusetts. Upon his appearance before the district attorney, he said: "I felt that as an American citizen, as a responsible citizen, I could no longer cooperate in concealing this information from the American public. I did this clearly at my own jeopardy and I am prepared to answer to all the consequences of this decision."

The White House formally declined to comment. Only the Jutsice Department put out a brief statement, saying Mr. Ellsberg will face a fair trial under the rule of law. So far, President Johnson successfully avoided public questions on the issue, though his approval ratings dropped significantly after the leak.


November 9, 1971: Governor Paul Laxalt not to run for president – endorses Reagan



Governor Paul Laxalt and candidate Ronald Reagan at a fundraiser of the Reagan campaign; November 9, 1971

Governor Paul Laxalt (R-NV) was considered a potential contender for the Republican nomination, as he had been a very visible figure for a few years now. He was praised as co-chair of the commission for reforming the nomination process and is considered a moderate to conservative Republican. But he has also become personal friends with Ronald Reagan. In fact, the two worked together to protect Lake Tahoe at the California-Nevada border. Now, Governor Laxalt publically endorsed his friend at a Las Vegas fundraising dinner for the Gipper. If elected, Governor Laxalt would certainly play a role in a possible Reagan Administration.


November 22, 1971: Lyndon Johnson becomes second-longest serving president in history


Eight years passed since LBJ first took the presidential oath (l) abroad Air Force One on November 22, 1963, after President Kennedy was shot. On November 22, 1971 President Johnson (r) remembered his predecessor during a speech.

November 22, 1971 is the 2,922nd day of Lyndon Johnson's presidency. He's now in office for exactly eight years, a normal two-term tenure. By crossing this mark, only Franklin D. Roosevelt has been president for a longer time (1933-1945). And LBJ, if he completes his term, is likely to remain in second place as long as the 22nd amendment isn't repealed: Only a vice president ascending to office - as he did - after half of the ongoing term is up but before November 22 of the year prior to the next election could exceed President Johnson's time in office. And that only if he or she manages to win the next two elections.

Eight years have passed since President John F. Kennedy was shot in Dallas, Texas. On this day, President Johnson and Vice President Kennedy attended a ceremony at Arlington National Cemetry, where JFK rests, and remembered the fallen leader, whose name still insprires Americans and foreigners likewise.


November 30, 1971: Economy bounces back

Good news for the Democrats? Over the summer and fall 1971 a mild recession occurred in the United States that now apparently ended. November proved to the third consecutive month with economic growth. Unemployment peaked at 7% in September 1971, but dropped to 6.5% in October and further to 6.2% in November. President Johnson claimed measures enacted by his administration are responsible for the improving numbers. Governor Reagan responded that the recovery was “not of significance” and that he would soon put out a specific economic plan for his presidential campaign. Vice President Kennedy, who reportedly prepares for his own White House bid, contradicted the governor’s statement.


Gallup poll, November 30, 1971

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 47%


December 2, 1971: President Johnson orders all U.S. troops to end hostage actions in Vietnam

With the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam going into its final stage, President Lyndon Johnson issued a directive that all (American) hostile actions shall cease. Although the number of troops has been reduced step by step since 1969, American forces remained active in battle along with the South Vietnamese allies. The latter have now taken the main burden of the war and will now take over entirely. However, hostile actions by the North dropped significantly.


December 12, 1971: George Wallace: I will decide presidential run in January



Former Governor George Wallace: Will he or won't he?

George Wallace long planned a presidential run in 1972, but after his return to the Governor’s Mansion in Alabama was prevented by Governor Albert Brewer in 1970 it seemed as his appeal would not go far enough to launch a national campaign. The populist Democrat, who moderated his views on segregation, now said, he wants to decide by January whether to join the race. Former Georgia Governor Lester Maddox, who has similar views, actively pushes Wallace to join the race. "Reagan is bad, Rockefeller and Humphrey are even worse and Kennedy is the worst of possible presidents. Make no mistake about it", said the Georgia politician, "therefore, we need Wallace in ’72."


Writer's note: I added the event of the eight anniversity of Lyndon Johnson's first swearing in belated.

[President Johnson]

December 28, 1971: Rocky throws his hat into the ring!



Governor Nelson Rockefeller at his announcement speech rally

“We want Rocky! We want Rocky!” screamed an enthusiastic crowd of over 5,000 in New York as Governor Nelson Rockefeller walked on the podium. “My fellow Americans: Next year’s election will determine the president who will preside over the bicentennial of our great nation. It will determine, who will lead this greatest country on the face of the earth into the third century of its proud national history. The next election will determine in what kind of future our children and grandchildren will live. I want this future to be one of peace, prosperity and freedom. These three words are the cornerstone of our campaign. […] I believe that I can carry out this vision for America. As I have done in 13 years of service to the great state of New York as its governor. Now, therefore, I hereby declare my candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination. I am running to offer this positive vision of optimism and compassion to our citizens. I will seek the support of each and every one of you, to serve for you and the public good”, said the governor upon entering the presidential contest.

This is Governor Rockefeller's third serious run for the presidency and, according to observers and insiders, his best chance to finally capture the Republican nomination. A feat he hasn't accomplished before for various reasons (in 1964, the brief remarriage with his wife Happy hurt him, in 1968 his campaign was poorly organized as he entered the race too late - similar to Reagan). His effort this time is also more professional than in 1964 and 1968. Like Reagan, the Rockefeller campaign is organized in every state and able to manage a serious groundgame in order to compete in the primaries. Prediction markets give both Rocky and the Gipper each a 45% chance for the nomination, with another 10% going to other candidates (Governor Spiro Agnew takes the lion's share here).


George Romney: Rockefeller for president!



Former Governor George Romney: "I will support Nelson Rockefeller for president"

Just hours after Rocky’s announcement, former Governor George Romney (R-MI) endorsed his fellow liberal Republican during a radio interview. That, of course, eliminates himself from the contest. “Governor Rockefeller is the right man at the right time. I’m proud to call myself a Rockefeller Republican”, he said. Journalists wrote that the former governor of Michigan is very likely to join a possible Rockefeller Administration in an important position.


State of the presidential race by the year’s end

By the end of 1971, all major candidates who were expected to run, officially entered the presidential contest. Only Vice President Robert Kennedy, the Democratic frontrunner, hasn’t formally announced his candidacy. According to members of his team, he’ll start campaigning by sometime in January. His toughest rival will he his predecessor in the vice presidency, Senator Hubert Humphrey. Both are representatives of the party’s liberal wing. Humphrey has rallied most unions behind him, while RFK is expected to take the lion’s share of black support. Political observers expect one of these two to be the nominee, though the possibility of a deadlocked convention has been raised after former Governor George Wallace publically flirted with a run. This could be the case, should RFK and HHH as well as Senator McGovern, the clear underdog, split the liberal vote and Wallace picks up enough support to prevent an outright majority at the convention floor. Interesting will also be, what President Johnson is going to do. So far, he didn’t address the campaign and gave no endorsement. It is unlikely that he will do so before the candidate is nominated, but he may play a role behind the scenes or hint his preferences in public speeches. After his reelection in 1968, political observers expected him to support Humphrey in 1972, but he worked surprisingly well with Vice President Kennedy over the course of the last three years. RFK, without a doubt, played a much bigger role in the vice presidency than Humphrey did under LBJ. Therefore, it seems possible that the president would be comfortable with either of these two. Nevertheless, he is also known for his high regard of Governor Rockefeller.

On the Republican side, the long awaited battle between governors Reagan and Rockefeller has begun. Unlike the Democrats, the two frontrunners already took aim at each other: “I welcome the challenge by Governor Rockefeller”, said Reagan the day after the Rockefeller announcement, “I believe the economic policies my worthy New York colleague has pursued so far are not significantly different from the policies that existed too long in this country and led to a gigantic bureaucracy and out of control taxation”. Rocky promptly responded by criticizing Reagan’s previous statements on taxes. “Fellows like me don’t need a tax break. The average worker needs one”, the New York governor stated. Meanwhile, Governor Agnew, polling in a strong third place, focused his message on “law and order on our streets” and more deregulation. He also empathized the need for a tougher stance against the communist block and accused the Johnson Administration on being “weak on communism”. A similar tone was set by General Westmoreland who vehemently rejected the Paris Peace Accords, labeling them as “a capitulation in the making, that is to be blamed on President Johnson and Vice President Kennedy”. Westmoreland, whose campaign was only barely mentioned in the news so far, also tried to get attention by personally attacking Nelson Rockefeller as a “secret Democrat”. The New York Governor, on new year’s eve, responded by calling the general “classless”. Rockefeller also denounced Westmoreland’s proposal to increase defense spending by 40% as a joke. Rocky promised to release a plan how to balance the budget by 1976 in the coming months. The Gipper also expressed his determination to balance the federal budget by 1976, largely through spending cuts and economic growth.

The race overall seems, at this early stage, wide open and is expected to be a toss-up in any case. That can be interpreted as good news for both parties: Democrats could very well win a fourth consecutive term in office. And Republicans have a decent shot at winning back the presidency after twelve years of JFK and LBJ.


December 31, 1971: A ton of new polls at new year's eve! Released by Gallup

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 46%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

(only declared candidates or potential contenders with at least 5% support listed)

Democratic Party presidential nomination

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 36%
Senator Hubert Humphrey: 28%
Former Governor George Wallace: 14%
Senator George McGovern: 9%
Undecided/others: 13%


Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Ronald Reagan: 31%
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 28%
Governor Spiro Agnew: 19%
General William Westmoreland: 8%
Undecided/Others: 14%

¹ = not included in previous polls


General election match-ups

Robert F. Kennedy: 42%
Ronald Reagan: 45%

Robert F. Kennedy: 42%
Nelson Rockefeller: 46%

Robert F. Kennedy: 43%
Spiro Agnew: 44%

Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
William Westmoreland: 38%


Hubert Humphrey: 43%
Ronald Reagan: 44%

Hubert Humphrey: 41%
Nelson Rockefeller: 45%

Hubert Humphrey: 43%
Spiro Agnew: 43%

Hubert Humphrey: 44%
William Westmoreland: 39%


George McGovern: 40%
Ronald Reagan: 45%

George McGovern: 39%
Nelson Rockefeller: 47%

George McGovern: 40%
Spiro Agnew: 45%

George McGovern: 41%
William Westmoreland: 40%


Next: Heading into 1972 and the upcoming election cycle, President Johnson’s final year in office… stay tuned!

[President Johnson]

January 3, 1972: Richard Nixon endorses Rockefeller and joins the campaign trail!



Senator Robert Taft Jr. (R-OH) gave the 1972 response to President Johnson’s State of the Union Address

Senator Robert Taft (R-OH) was selected to for a rebuttal to the president’s address. Taft’s selection was a victory of the conservative wing, since the liberals and moderates wanted Edward Brooke (R-MA), the first popularly elected black senator, to give the speech.

“No word about the ongoing drug crisis on our streets and the military. Instead, the president praised the end of the draft and proposed a new expensive social program such as socialized healthcare. This bad news for America. The good news is, that we are going to have an election this year that gives us the chance to replace King Johnson with a Republican”, said Taft, the son of legendary senator and conservative icon Robert Taft and grandson of former president William Howard Taft. In his remarks, the Ohio senator, who is in office since 1971, also sharply criticized the Johnson Administration for being too weak on the Soviets. Although he welcomed negotiations, he emphasized to be more aggressive at Moscow. “The president seeks an equal balance”, said Taft, “but there can’t be a balance. America must stand tall against the forces of communism in order to liberate all nations dominated by the Soviets.”

[President Johnson]

January 17, 1972: Vice President Bobby Kennedy kicks off presidential campaign!



Vice President Kennedy, the Democratic frontrunner, is now officially in the race. "I want to continue the JFK/LBJ agenda and be a voice for progress", he said upon entering the contest.

He already filled in for all primaries and caucuses last month, but now it is finally official: Bobby Kennedy runs for president this year. He kicked off his campaign at rally in New York City joined by an enthusiastic crowd of approximately 10,000 people. “My fellow Americans: Grateful for all the support you have given to me in over a decade of public service, I once more ask for your support to change world”, the vice president said, “in 11 years now, under the leadership of my beloved brother, President John Kennedy, and President Lyndon Johnson, we have come so far as a nation. At home and abroad, we made unimagined progress that will be remembered for generations. But renewing our nation is not a mission that is completed one day, it is a lasting process that goes on, far beyond a single presidency. We must constantly work for reforms: implanting new ones as well as improving those existing. This is and has always been the American way of life. To continue this work, America needs a champion who will take the burning torch of this great nation and move forward. I want to be your champion.”

Bobby Kennedy enters the presidential contest as the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. He has been an active vice president under a president he had a difficult relationship before. Bobby also has experience in congress and at the Justice Department. The name Kennedy is still somewhat of a myth, what certainly helps RFK. In his speech, he praised the achievements of the Kennedy/Johnson years. He expressed his staunch support for universal healthcare and urged early passage of a bill. “I tell the Republicans: If they don’t pass it during this year, I’ll try again as president.”

Just shortly after his announcement, RFK picked up many notable endorsements from Democrats across the nation. He also received support from dozens of black leaders and civil rights activists.


January 22, 1972: Wallace ’72 – former Governor George Wallace enters Democratic primary



Former Governor George Wallace at his first rally: The colorful Southerner runs as a populist and representative of the old conservative wing

“Can you find a true voice for the average American in this field of Democratic candidates?”, asked former Governor George Wallace his supporters at a rally in Montgomery, Alabama. “No! We need Wallace! We want Wallace! Wallace! Wallace!” answered a cheering crowd. Wallace continued: “I can't either! And that is why I, today and here in wonderful Montgomery, declare my candidacy for President of the United States!” [Massive applause]. “It is time to reclaim the power in our country. For all too long we had some bureaucrats telling us what to do. For all too long we have seen an erosion in public confidence and an erosion in states rights. For all too long, we have seen the lawlessness of hippies and other demonstrators! I seek a new approach to governing and be a voice for everyday citizens in this country. This is our land, and we will take it back from DC!”, the former governor added.

After forgoing a candidacy in 1968, George Wallace seeks the presidency in 1972 and challenges Vice President Kennedy and Senator Humphrey from the right. The colorful populist, who moderated his stances on segregation, has still a lot of fans across America, especially in the South. The voices who wrote him off following the narrow defeat in the 1970 gubernatorial primary are now proven wrong, although it is unclear how much support he will get in the primaries. But a certain appeal to his Anti-Washington and pro state’s rights message is certainly there. The nomination of Wallace is unlikely at this point, though he may garner enough votes in the new primary system to prevent the favorites Kennedy and Humphrey, whom he labeled as “out of touch elitists”, from an outright majority.


January 29, 1972: President Johnson: Kennedy or Humphrey should be the nominee



When he briefly sat down with a female journalist, President Johnson said he prefered either Robert Kennedy or Hubert Humphrey as the Democratic nominee and next president.

The press called it “unexpected and surprising” right after President Johnson expressed his thoughts on the presidential campaign. If there is something like a “non endorsement”, he gave one for Wallace and McGovern. When asked by a female journalist at the White House who his choice for president would be, President Johnson answered that he heavily favors Robert Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey. “Both of these men are excellent candidates. I think either of them should be the nominee and I have no doubt each would make an outstanding president. Voters who want my policies to continue beyond January 1973 should cast their vote for Robert Kennedy or Hubert Humphrey”, said the chief executive. When asked about the Republicans, LBJ declined. 

The New York Times commented that LBJ obviously isn't willing just to "sit out" his remaining time in office. After surprising the public with this comment, he also left many stunned by pushing for universal healthcare. "Johnson is still a power hungry man. He wants to lead as long he is president", the article reads.


January 30, 1972: Last Vietnam soldiers return home



President Lyndon B. Johnson greets homecoming U.S. soldiers from Vietnam; January 30, 1972



Upon his arrival, a G.I. is welcomed by his girlfriend at Andrews Air Force Base

A year after the signing of the Paris Peace Accords, the last American soldiers returned home to the United States. They were welcomed home at Andrews Air Force Base by President Lyndon Johnson. The commander-in-chief thanked the young men for their service and sacrifice and promised his administration will do everything possible to help veterans. “America’s brightest finally returned home and we owe you deep respect”, he said. Images of the last troops welcomed home by parents, spouses, girlfriends and other relatives went through the entire media and sparked deep emotions on many sides. Some also felt abandoned, as this was not a “hero’s welcome” like in World War II.

Nevertheless, about 10,000 U.S. military advisors remain in South Vietnam to train South Vietnamese forces and assist them. Their role, however, is limited to assistance and training, as agreed to in the Paris treaty. They also won’t take action in battle and stay on South Vietnamese territory.


January 31, 1972: A ton of new polls! Released by Gallup

President Johnson's State of the Union Address made surpringly positive news that led to an improvement of his numbers. After Vice President Kennedy announced his presidential campaign, his numbers also surged for both the primary and the general election. George Wallace also imoproves his standing. Meanwhile, Hubert Humphrey's numbers dropped nationally, but his campaign heavily focuses on Iowa, where the first caucus will be held in February 1st. On the Republican side, Governor Reagan and Rockefeller lead the field and are at dead heat nationally as well as in Iowa.

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race


Democratic Party presidential nomination

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 37%
Senator Hubert Humphrey: 26%
Former Governor George Wallace: 18%
Senator George McGovern: 9%
Undecided/others: 10%


Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Ronald Reagan: 32%
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 31%
Governor Spiro Agnew: 18%
General William Westmoreland: 8%
Undecided/Others: 12%


Iowa Democratic caucus

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 33%
Senator Hubert Humphrey: 30%
Former Governor George Wallace: 15%
Senator George McGovern: 13%
Undecided/others: 9%


Iowa Republican Caucus

Governor Ronald Reagan: 35%
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 35%
Governor Spiro Agnew: 20%
General William Westmoreland: 5%
Undecided/Others: 5%


General election match-ups

Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
Ronald Reagan: 42%

Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
Nelson Rockefeller: 44%

Robert F. Kennedy: 45%
Spiro Agnew: 42%

Robert F. Kennedy: 46%
William Westmoreland: 38%


Hubert Humphrey: 43%
Ronald Reagan: 43%

Hubert Humphrey: 43%
Nelson Rockefeller: 44%

Hubert Humphrey: 45%
Spiro Agnew: 42%

Hubert Humphrey: 46%
William Westmoreland: 37%


George McGovern: 42%
Ronald Reagan: 46%

George McGovern: 40%
Nelson Rockefeller: 46%

George McGovern: 42%
Spiro Agnew: 45%

George McGovern: 43%
William Westmoreland: 40%


Next: The Iowa Caucus on February 1, 1972!

Writer’s note: The primary calendar is the same as in our days. In the TL, the states implemented caucus and primary rules right after the Kennedy/Laxalt Commission finished its work.

[President Johnson]

I don't believe Brooke was the first black Senator--the South had some during Reconstruction as I recall, no?

He was the third African-American senator, during Reconstruction there were 2 from Mississippi. Though, even today he is still the longest serving African-American senator.

Thanks for the note. I thought he was the first overall. But he was the first popularly elected African American senator, according to Wikipedia. Corrected that now.

[President Johnson]

February 1, 1972

★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: Humphrey and Reagan emerge victorious in Iowa; Agnew strong third in Republican Caucus ★★★

The primary session for election 1972 has begun. These are the popular vote results:

Democratic Caucus
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 33.3%
Robert F. Kennedy: 31.4%
George Wallace: 18.4%
George McGovern: 15.8%

A mid-westerner wins in the Mid-West: Hubert Humphrey beats Robert Kennedy by roughly two percent in Iowa. Not too surprising, since the former vice president’s campaign heavily focused on the neighboring state of his native Minnesota to gain early momentum. Iowa was a must-win for Humphrey, who celebrated his victory. The Kennedy campaign downplayed the defeat and pointed out how close RFK came. Both George Wallace and McGovern exceeded expectations. Especially Wallace garnered over 18% of the vote, proving that his appeal goes beyond the South.



Senator Hubert Humphrey talks to the press after defeating Vice President Kennedy in the Iowa Democratic Caucus: "I am stunned and thankful for Democrats' support"


Republican Caucus
✓ Ronald Reagan: 35.8%
Nelson Rockefeller: 26.1%
Spiro Agnew: 25.7%
William Westmoreland: 9.5%

The Republican Caucus produced two winners: The first is Ronald Wilson Reagan, who not just won Iowa, but also managed to secure a near ten point win over his rival Nelson Rockefeller. Rocky’s support in the state was obviously overestimated in the polls. The second winner is Spiro Theodore Agnew, who almost came in second with over a fourth of the total vote. He exceeded expectations by a significant margin and enjoys some momentum after his performance. William Westmoreland got almost ten percent of the vote and did better than expected. However, it is highly unlikely that he comes anywhere close to the nomination.



Governor Reagan with supporters after winning the Republican Iowa Caucus, February 1, 1972


Gallup Polls for the New Hampshire Primary on February 8, 1972

The first primary of the 1972 election will take place one week after the Iowa Caucus and is expected to be more in Kennedy’s and Rockefeller’s favor.


Democratic Primary Poll

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 34%
Senator Hubert Humphrey: 29%
Senator George McGovern: 18%
Former Governor George Wallace: 9%
Undecided/others: 10%


Republican Primary Poll

Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 54%
Governor Ronald Reagan: 21%
Governor Spiro Agnew: 17%
General William Westmoreland: 1%
Undecided/others: 7%

[President Johnson]

February 8, 1972

★★★ DECISION ?72 ? Election Special: New Hampshire Primary: Humphrey upsets Kennedy; Rockefeller wins decisively ★★★

Democratic Primary
✓ Hubert Humphrey: 39.5%
Robert F. Kennedy: 37.0%
George McGovern: 15.1%
George Wallace: 7.3%

A huge upset in New Hampshire on the Democratic side: Hubert Humphrey wins! And the polling error is much wider than in Iowa. Obviously, the senator has picked up a lot of undecided support during the final days of the campaign. Interestingly, HHH went in just the week before the polls opened with a strong ground operation (his supporters knocked on thousands of doors). RFK?s start into the primary season turns out more troubling than both political pundits and the vice president himself expected. A spokesperson of the Kennedy campaign told the press the next day, that some organizational changes will be made before the next round of voting later that month. Both Wallace and McGovern just received little support in the Granite State.



Senator Hubert Humphrey unexpectetly triumphes in New Hampshire. "I thank you very much, my beloved Democrats", he commented.


Republican Primary
✓ Nelson Rockefeller: 62.8%
Spiro Agnew: 20.0%
Ronald Reagan: 15.9%
William Westmoreland: 1.1%

On the Republican side, there is no upset: As expected, Nelson Rockefeller wins overwhelmingly. Ronald Reagan suffers a big defeat. Although he never had illusions to beat Rockefeller here, the California governor certainly expected to come in second. But Spiro Agnew received more votes and continues to perform better than expected. However, the Reagan campaign virtually wrote the state off, as Nelson Rockefeller is very popular in this region. New England, the home of the liberal Republicans, is just the perfect fit for Rocky.



No surprise at all: Governor Nelson Rockefeller wins in New Hampshire, home of the liberal Republicans


February 9, 1972 ? BREAKING: Senator George McGovern quits presidential campaign



"I have done my best but fell short", Senator George McGovern said upon dropping out of the Democratic primaries

He called it a ?brief and intensive experience?, when Senator George McGovern announced the end of his campaign. ?We put out a good message for progress, peace and justice, but despite our efforts, we fell short. I fell short. Therefore, I end my candidacy for president?, Senator McGovern told his supports, who expected him to stay longer in the race. Afterwards, he declined an endorsement for the primary, but took a clear position against George Wallace (?if it isn?t Wallace, I will support the Democratic candidate?).


Secretary General Leonid Brezhnev?s visit to the United States and signing of SALT I Treaty; February 12 ? 13, 1972


At the end of over two years of negotiations, Soviet Leader Leonid Brezhnev for the first time visits the United States. At Camp David, he met President Lyndon Johnson for the signing of the SALT I Treaty. President Johnson, upon the signing ceremony, described the agreement as follows: ?The agreement freezes the number of strategic ballistic missile launchers at existing levels and provided for the addition of new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launchers only after the same number of older intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and SLBM launchers had been dismantled. SALT I also limits land-based ICBMs that were in range from the northeastern border of the continental United States to the northwestern border of the continental USSR. In addition to that, SALT I limited the number of SLBM capable submarines that NATO and the United States could operate to 50 with a maximum of 800 SLBM launchers between them. If the United States or NATO were to increase that number, the USSR could respond with increasing their arsenal by the same amount. I want to thank my Soviet partners and the negotiators, who spent many hours working this piece of paper out.?^[1]

During the entire event, the U.S. press had almost unlimited access to the president and his guest. At night, a typical Texas barbecue after LBJ?s taste was served. Both leaders spoke of ?very productive talks? and expressed their willingness, to stay engaged in negotiations for further arms reduction. Just after the final communique was made public, Vice President Robert Kennedy made it clear, a Kennedy Administration would continue Johnson?s foreign policy in that regard. The vice president was originally scheduled to be on the campaign trail, but he and Senator Humphrey were invited to the ceremony. Both meet with Secretary Brezhnev, who agreed to talk to the two men, who have a decent shot to assume the presidency coming next year.

The agreement was opposed by many conservatives. Ronald Reagan described the participation of Robert Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey as a ?PR stunt by the president to boost these gentlemen?s polling numbers.?
 

February 20, 1972: Westmoreland: I?ll drop out if I don?t win South Carolina

Two days before voters heading to the polls in Nevada and South Carolina, General Westmoreland stated that he will suspend his campaign if he doesn?t win the South Carolina Republican primary. ?If I can?t win my homestate, I have no path to the nod?, the general is quoted. The state was not polled in the days before the election.



Note [1]: The original quote is largely from Wikipedia

[President Johnson]

February 22, 1972

★★★ DECISION ’72 – Election Special: Kennedy wins in Nevada, Wallace in South Carolina; Reagan victorious in both; Westmoreland drops out, endorses Reagan ★★★

South Carolina Democratic Primary
✓ George Wallace: 58.5%
Robert F. Kennedy: 22.7%
Hubert Humphrey: 17.2%
 

Nevada Democratic Caucus
✓ Robert F. Kennedy: 48.8%
Hubert Humphrey: 40.2%
George Wallace: 10.5%

In South Carolina and Nevada, Hubert Humphrey’s streak of two consecutive successes was broken. In South Carolina, George Wallace won over Hubert Humphrey and Robert Kennedy pretty easily. In Nevada, Vice President Kennedy could celebrate his first primary triumph. He defeated Senator Humphrey by over eight points. George Wallace just barely made it to double digits.


South Carolina Republican Primary
✓ Ronald Reagan: 41.0%
William Westmoreland: 24.3%
Spiro Agnew: 17.7%
Nelson Rockefeller: 16.2%


Nevada Republican Caucus
✓ Ronald Reagan: 36.9%
Nelson Rockefeller: 34.3%
Spiro Agnew: 21.5%
William Westmoreland: 5.6%



Governor Reagan won both contests of February 22, 1972

The Gipper has every reason to smile again: He won both contests on the GOP side this February 22. “I am deeply honored to receive that many endorsements. But we don’t get ahead of ourselves”, the California governor commented his victories. Nevertheless, both states were expected to vote in his favor. Spiro Agnew continues to exceed expectations, as he seems to appeal to these Republicans who regard Reagan as too conservative and Rockefeller as too liberal. For Rocky, this day is overall a disappointment, although he overperformed polls in Nevada and managed to come in a close second. More concern for the Rockefeller campaign is the poor result in South Carolina, where he came in dead last despite an intense campaign effort (some political observers suggested the New York governor may have won Nevada, had he spent the time and money there rather than S.C.). The result is an indicator that Rockefeller, a liberal New York Republican, is not appealing to many Southerners.

After General William Westmoreland came in second in his homestate of South Carolina, he officially suspended his campaign. “I made a promise. And I will keep it. As I was not successful to convince enough Republican voters that I can lead this nation, I end my campaign for president”, the general told supporters and the media. He closed his remarks by endorsing Ronald Reagan: “Looking at the remaining contenders in this race, I will support Governor Reagan for president. He is the right kind of leader in the times we live […]” With Westmoreland’s exit, the Republican field is now also narrowed down to three candidates.



General Westmoreland's campaign comes to an end, as he missed to gain enough support. No surpirse: He endorsed Ronald Reagan after leaving the race.


February 29, 1972: A ton of new polls! Released by Gallup

President Johnson job approval
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 40%


Polls for the 1972 presidential race

Democratic Party presidential nomination

Vice President Robert F. Kennedy: 37%
Senator Hubert Humphrey: 33%
Former Governor George Wallace: 20%
Undecided: 10%


Republican Party presidential nomination

Governor Ronald Reagan: 40%
Governor Nelson Rockefeller: 35%
Governor Spiro Agnew: 21%
Undecided: 4%


General election match-ups

Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
Ronald Reagan: 47%

Robert F. Kennedy: 43%
Nelson Rockefeller: 46%

Robert F. Kennedy: 44%
Spiro Agnew: 45%


Hubert Humphrey: 44%
Ronald Reagan: 44%

Hubert Humphrey: 44%
Nelson Rockefeller: 44%

Hubert Humphrey: 45%
Spiro Agnew: 42%


George Wallace: 42%
Ronald Reagan: 47%

George Wallace: 42%
Nelson Rockefeller: 45%

George Wallace: 42%
Spiro Agnew: 44%


March 3, 1972: Reagan campaign releases economic program; Kennedy, Humphrey and Rockefeller respond



If elected president, Governor Reagan wants to cut taxes and spending at the same time. The size of government is also a problem in the Gipper's eyes. Days before Super Tuesday, he presented his plans to the public

Just days before Super Tuesday, as the media called the date where over dozen of states hold their primaries, Ronald Reagan presented his economic plan to the public. The plan consists a 35% cut in corporate taxes and a 25% across-the-board tax break for all incomes. The California governor also promised to “strip apart as many regulations as possible”. He also emphasized to decrease the size of the federal government and spoke of an “out of control bureaucracy owned by the Johnson/Kennedy Administration”. Like at most of his rallies, the Gipper directly attacks the Johnson Administration and Vice President Kennedy on policy rather than his primary opponents. Only Governor Rockefeller is frequently mentioned, criticizing his record in New York: “Governor Rockefeller talks about making government more efficient, but his record tells otherwise. Let the voters determine this question.” Reagan further outlined that his plan would lead to over six percent economic growth and compensate the revenue losses through the massive tax cuts.

Only hours later, Vice President Robert Kennedy slammed the governor's plans at one of his rallies. "Mr. Reagan seeks to make polcies for his rich crownies and not the average American. I reject his plans", the Democratic frontrunner said. His rival Senator Humphrey dennounced the plan as well, calling it "complete nonsense". And Republican hopeful Nelson Rockefeller, Reagan's top competitator, responded to the plan: "With all due respect, I do not believe this package solves our problems. I support spending cuts where possible, but Governor Reagan's proposals are unbalanced and not realistic".


Next: Super Tuesday on March 7, 1972... stay tuned!