Ontario 2018 election

[DC Al Fine]

The 20% for other in Northern Ontario in that poll likely includes the Northern Ontario Party.

Do they actually have a shot at making some noise in Northern Ontario? (Say >10% in any riding.) Who would they steal votes from?

[DC Al Fine]

a DART poll (?)
http://dartincom.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Provincial-Preference-Release-March-7-2018.pdf

PC - 44%
NDP - 24%
OLP - 19%
other - 13% (I'm thinking this is mostly undecideds, going by the regions I can't see the Greens pulling in 20% in the North? but 13 for Greens, Trillium, Libertarian, etc might not be that far off)

416 - PC 36%, NDP 31%, OLP 22%, other 11%
GTA - PC 54%, OLP 19%, NDP 16%, other 12%
Central - PC 52%, NDP 25%, OLP 17%, Other 6%
SWOn - PC 41%, NDP 25%, OLP 18%, other 16%
East - PC 43%, NDP 24%, OLP 21, other 13%
North - NDP 40%, PC 27%, OLP 14%, other 20%

I threw this in the simulator (with a grain of salt, but still fun) - http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

PC - 98
NDP - 25
OLP - ... wait for it, 1! (Guess which one? Toronto Centre, which I think is not realistic at all)

To be fair, the Liberals got 11 seats in Ontario in 2011 on 44-26-25. Their vote is distributed fairly evenly and they lack the regional strongholds that the Tories and NDP do.

It wouldn't be that outrageous for their seat count to be in the single digits on 19% if the vote.

[DC Al Fine]

Anyone have specific results?

[DC Al Fine]

Ontario Election 2018 is now a three way race instead of a coronation of the PCs.


LET'S GO NDP!

Eh. I think this just confirms the OLP as third party status. Real question is PC majority or minority.

Not quite sure of that. "Vote Liberal to stop *insert Tory leader here*!" is a tried and true strategy, and it fits well with Ford as an opponent.

[DC Al Fine]

According to Wiki, Ford won on points but not the overall vote. Would love to see detailed results by riding like in the federal Tory race.

[DC Al Fine]

the NDP is still in third place in Toronto, so there's still room to grow once the promiscuous progressives there switch who they're voting for.

Unless they all decide to STOP FORD... which sadly is a very real possibility.

[DC Al Fine]

The NDP would only win Kingston if they won the election. It's one of those seats that stayed Liberal during the 2011 wave despite the lack of an incumbent.

Great example of a fool's gold riding. See also Ottawa South for the Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, Tanya Granic Allen did best pretty much where I expected she would.

I was pleasantly surprised with her result, but OTOH Trost and Lemieux combined for 20% on the first ballot in Ontario in 2017, so I guess her result wasn't that surprising (and maybe even a little disappointing).

[DC Al Fine]

You know, if the left and centre in Ontario is mentally preparing itself to cede minority-majority banlieue districts to the radical right... well I don't even have the words to convey the necessary contempt, actually.

LOL!

[DC Al Fine]

Oh good, we have a pile on of foreign posters who think there is a parallel between the far right of their nation states and the unique brand of right wing populism that is "Fordnation". It's not about nationalism!

It was those same minorities that put Rob Ford into office the first time, and backed his brother last election. Do you think they'd rather vote for a lying, corrupt lesbian? And most of those ridings don't have much of an NDP history (none post 1995). 

It's still interesting that far right or not, Ford is going to do well with groups the Liberals should own. It shows a possible way forward for the aging centre right.

[DC Al Fine]

or outside (more blue collar).

How many card-carrying members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario can be honestly described in such terms? Three?

Actually quite a few.  In many ways our political spectrum in terms of whom is on the right and whom is on the left is more along US lines than British lines.  Otherwise cultural values as opposed to class and income play a big role in how people vote.  A blue collar person who owns a gun, a high school dropout, lives in a manufacturing town of 30,000 people and goes to church weekly will probably be a Tory voter.  While a wealthy Bay street lawyer is most likely to be a Liberal.  True a lot of the CEOs vote PC so income does have some influence but only those who have the majority of their income in the top bracket (which is 220K in Ontario) vote this way and they are a very tiny portion of the population.

It is unfortunate to see Al embarrass himself here. Sounds like he stopped following Ontario politics in the 1990s. It is obvious from the riding results of the leadership race that there are many blue collar PC members, and they were key to electing Doug Ford. 

Yeah that comment struck me as very... British. There's a reason why Don Valley West and Chatham-Kent-Essex have swapped since the Harris years.

[DC Al Fine]

Canadian Conservatives aren't as "posh" as British Conservatives.  That being said, how much of the PC membership is working class? 

Can't speak for Ontario, but there is definitely a sizeable contingent in Nova Scotia.

[DC Al Fine]

Christine Elliott to run in Newmarket-Aurora.

https://theribbon.net/2018/03/19/report-christine-elliott-to-run-in-newmarket-aurora/

That makes FAR more sense than St. Paul's.  If she ran there that would have made John Tory's DVW run look like a genius move. 

That was a pretty close race federally. Should be an easy pickup.

[DC Al Fine]

QC125 is just another terrible poll aggregator in the same vein as Eric Grenier. Not to be taken seriously.

You are so salty about Grenier

[DC Al Fine]

Since it's within range for the pc's and Wynne is so unpopular, what are the odds of Don Valley West changing hands?

Low.  DVW is the wealthiest riding in the province and Ford's populism doesn't appeal to a large number of "the elites and the establishment" that live there.

I could see an Elliott-led PC party picking it off had she won but now it's a bit like wondering if Trump can win NOVA because Clinton is doing so poorly.

[DC Al Fine]

What's Wynne's pro-Israel record?

[DC Al Fine]

Do you honestly think the people of Etobicoke North are more loyal to the Liberal Party than the Fords?

Liberals won Etobicoke North by 10-11% in 2011 and the current polls are in the ballpark of the federal 2011 result. Ford Nation has to be worth at least a 5% swing.

[DC Al Fine]

Do you honestly think the people of Etobicoke North are more loyal to the Liberal Party than the Fords?

Liberals won Etobicoke North by 10-11% in 2011 and the current polls are in the ballpark of the federal 2011 result. Ford Nation has to be worth at least a 5% swing.

Well, not to mention turnout was much higher in the Toronto election than the provincial election (believe it or not!), so a lot of that Ford nation support is actually from non-voters.

What visible minorities are most attracted to/ turned off Ford Nation?

I'd guess Blacks are the most attracted, followed by East Asians, Hispanics and South Asians the least. But all more so than White Torontonians. Hence why the comparisons with right wing populism in any other country has to stop.

The best comparison I can make for the Ford's is that they finally cracked the "minorities who should be voting for conservative parties" code that the Bush era GOP and so many other right wing parties have tried.

[DC Al Fine]

Is it just me or has Election Prediction Project really jumped the shark (thanks to the idiocy of "Not Non-Partisan" and "jeff316")?

Electionprediction.org makes predictions based on a combination of general trends while also looking at the comments. Quality not quantity is what they use so nonsensical posts get ignored in their predictions. On the website they explain how they make them.

The problem I have with with their current prediction is that it seems way too small-c conservative and incumbent friendly. The Liberals are are given 24 safe seats and are considered a factor in many more toss ups at the expense of the Tories and NDP. E.g. Newmarket-Aurora was won by the Liberals by about 6% in 2014. There's been a double digit swing from Liberal to Tory since then and the Tories are running Christine Elliott, but it's called a toss up.

[DC Al Fine]

If no clear alternative for Ford presents itself, I do expect an NDP + LIB coalition in the event there is a Ford-led minority government.  I don't think the Forum poll provided seat projections, but with those numbers, the NDP and Libs would likely have about the same number of ridings.

I could sort of see the Liberals supporting the NDP, but I couldn't see the NDP supporting the Liberals to allow Kathleen Wynne to remain in power.

Agreed. Horwarth would have to be a political imbecile to back such a government. Far better to defeat a Ford minority with both Liberals and Tories discredited. Barring a big win in 2018, that seems like the best scenario for the NDP.

As for the Liberals, they have to be wary of letting the NDP steal their progressive thunder. Maybe they give an NDP government a free pass while they pick a new leader and negotiate on a case by case basis after that similar to the 04-11 NDP, but nothing more than that.

[DC Al Fine]

Or perhaps while not thought of a lot if the PCs only win a minority, the Liberals could agree to let them govern provided they choose a different leader, although that is probably stretching it a little too much.  I could only see this happening if the Liberals and NDP do gang up and then caucus feeling they could break this with a different leader forces Ford out and once the PCs get a new leader the agreement falls apart.  But even that seems unlikely.  Had the PCs not been so stupid and chosen Elliott instead of Ford this would probably be a non-issue as she is not nearly as divisive as he is.

That's a stretch to say the least. The ensuing leadership race/party infighting would make the recent PC leadership look like a teddy bear picnic. Ford would go down swinging.

Just because the BC NDP and Greens made that half coalition to force out a four term conservative government (which is way way different than the scenario were discussing here) doesn't mean the rules of politics have changed forever. If there's a Tory minority, it's far more likely the Liberals (and maybe NDP) pick a new leader and Ontario goes to the polls in 18 months like the bulk of minority governments in the past century.

[DC Al Fine]

Another question for people who understand these things better than me, if Ontario has one of the highest deficits and highest upper income tax rates in the OECD, but doesn't have the corresponding social program spending to go along with it, then where is all the money going to?

In no particular order:

1) Ontario doesn't have the resource revenue that Alberta and Saskatchewan do.

2) Although Ontario is technically a have not province, they are just barely so. Provinces like Nova Scotia and New Brunswick receive similar equalization payments to Ontario, but of course that's way more revenue per capita for the Maritimes.

3) Ontario pays more interest on debt per capita than every province except Newfoundland and Quebec.

4) Taxing the rich raises less money than you'd think. Middle class and HST rate increases tend to rack up more revenue.

[DC Al Fine]

To be honest, millennials or no millennials, I'd put more credence in the polls showing the Tories at 40% or under, because they more accurately reflect the quirks of individual ridings

Could you elaborate?

[DC Al Fine]

That's not what I meant. I'm aware of Mainstreet's issues. I wanted to know why you think that polls showing the Tories at 40% or less "more accurately reflect the quirks of individual ridings". It's a bit of a different take.

[DC Al Fine]

Ford is resisting pressure to DQ Granic Allen over comments she made about Muslims and LGBT.

If she wins the Mississauga Centre nomination, those remarks will not go over well here I think. Over 16% of the population are Muslim, only 32% are white; this is a very ethnically/religiously diverse district

This is my eternal frustration with a lot of socons. Muslims have a lot more in common with conservative Christians than we think. We really need to cut the bigotry and start working with them. Millennial social are getting it I think, but the older generations definitely aren't.