US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Brittain33]

So no attack on Sutton?

That strategy inevitably must also take Lorain out of Sutton's district.

No comment on a primary with a racial component?

What is your theory on why white Republicans chose to unseat one of the only minority Republicans of the 111st Congress when there were multiple 13-3 maps available?

[krazen1211]

So no attack on Sutton?

That strategy inevitably must also take Lorain out of Sutton's district.

No comment on a primary with a racial component?

What is your theory on why white Republicans chose to unseat one of the only minority Republicans of the 111st Congress when there were multiple 13-3 maps available?

Are you really asking that question based on 'word from Marcy Kaptur's office'? Perhaps you should wait for a map first. It will be out in a week or so and patience is a virtue.

[Torie]

Word from Marcy Kaptur's office:

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That sounds like they are pushing to shove the south Cuyahoga, and the more Pubbie parts of Lorain CD, from marginal into a lean GOP CD. It will be interesting whether they follow municipal lines, or just go for the gold precinct by precinct the way my original map did. The rumor of drawing a CD that Kucinich would win a Dem primary in seems by the boards. I still don't quite get what the Pubbies gain by moving OH-07 from the south side of the Columbus metro area to the north side having drawn a map using that alternative. Granted it does give OH-15 and Stivers more of his old stomping ground in white Columbus, while he has to give up half of it if OH-04 pokes in from the south end, rather than from the north.

[Brittain33]

Are you really asking that question based on 'word from Marcy Kaptur's office'?

This is the second time we've had this lead, about the white Republicans trying to purge a minority member from office. I suppose it may not happen.

[krazen1211]

Are you really asking that question based on 'word from Marcy Kaptur's office'?

This is the second time we've had this lead, about the white Republicans trying to purge a minority member from office. I suppose it may not happen.

Hmph. It seems like you are correct and it is quite unfortunate. One wonders what Mean Jean did to avoid the axe with Turner.



http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/09/12/republicans-to-create-new-congressional-district-franklin-county.html

Ohio Republicans will create a new congressional district in Franklin County that would likely elect a Democratic as part of a redistricting plan that would strengthen Republican congressional incumbents Pat Tiberi of Genoa Township and Steve Stivers of Upper Arlington, according to Republican sources.

The new map would combine the Democratic districts of Marcy Kaptur of Toledo and Dennis Kucinich of Cleveland, which would force a primary between those two.

It also would blend together the districts of Betty Sutton of Barberton and Tim Ryan of Niles.




Donut hole and the double cut up north. I proposed such on page 3 and I am quite glad that it seems to be occurring.

[muon2]

Word from Marcy Kaptur's office:

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Just think, you read it here first. A Dayton pairing seems to be a concession to the reality of Columbus. A four prong split into Franklin was the only way to realistically make a 13-3 plan work. Even so, it kept some seats fairly marginal. A 12-4 plan also allows a black influence district to be created in Columbus as well as keep the GOP areas around it safe.

It's interesting that you guys are able to get the Dems down to 3 districts in the NE. Imho that is even more of a reason to give the Dems a seat in Columbus and make sure you don't lose any central or western Ohio seats even in a bad year. It would really suck for the pubbies if a few districts flipped in the northeast as well as Columbus. And the trend is in the wrong direction in Columbus for the GOP.

Thus my rather extensive post about Columbus. It needs a lot of work to mitigate the damage. Otherwise the map is just an exercise in foolishness, in the longer term.

By the way, it is not just 3 Dem CD's in NE Ohio. It is 3 CD's in the entire state! We have the OH-09 snake with a double prong at the end, like that instrument you use to shove stuff around in your fireplace, and then the black - white liberal pack (OH-11), and the down and out quite white pack, but 20% black as it sucks up Dem precincts (OH-06).  The map is just a monster Gerry. It's just brutal. But we live in brutal partisan times - so the Pubbies might just do it.

I've had some intel that suggests that something like Torie's plan is exactly what the GOP is looking at. There must be a 50% black-VAP CD, and it will link Cleveland to Akron, since it can't be created in Cuyahoga alone. The map will also have a Toledo to Cleveland CD and one other Dem CD based in Youngstown. Columbus will be split into wedges.

The only major difference is that they probably won't wrap LaTourette's district. They assume that he can handle an R+0 district, and there is more concern to boost Renacci to hold off Sutton.

[Torie]

Except that, as you know muon2, you can do a quad chop of Columbus without moving OH-07 to the north of the Columbus metro area.  So I am genuinely puzzled. The only reason to do it that I can fathom is to keep Shiver's OH-15 more similar to what it is now. Can you think of any other reason?

[muon2]

Except that, as you know muon2, you can do a quad chop of Columbus without moving OH-07 to the north of the Columbus metro area.  So I am genuinely puzzled. The only reason to do it that I can fathom is to keep Shiver's OH-15 more similar to what it is now. Can you think of any other reason?

I assume it has to do with both Shivers and Tiberi. Perhaps they wanted Austria to move closer to Columbus, and he wasn't going. It does look to me that Beavercreek is better used to offset Dayton than to swing east towards Columbus. You have it that way in your map, too.

[TJ in Oregon]

I'm not a huge fan of this because it sounds like the GOP has mutilated the idea of a community of interest and is throwing Steve Austria under the bus when it doesn't seem like he's the weakest incumbent. I also wanted a close western Cleveland seat for a Kucinich/Frost showdown.

However, it doesn't seem like there is a huge potential for this map to backfire.

[Torie]

Except that, as you know muon2, you can do a quad chop of Columbus without moving OH-07 to the north of the Columbus metro area.  So I am genuinely puzzled. The only reason to do it that I can fathom is to keep Shiver's OH-15 more similar to what it is now. Can you think of any other reason?

I assume it has to do with both Shivers and Tiberi. Perhaps they wanted Austria to move closer to Columbus, and he wasn't going. It does look to me that Beavercreek is better used to offset Dayton than to swing east towards Columbus. You have it that way in your map, too.

The map I originally prepared that did not shred the existing CD-07, left Beavercreek and Greene County in OH-07, and used the existing portion of Warren and all of Clinton Counties to offset Montgomery County. The move OH-07 to the north plan that I drew used Greene for the Dayton offset along with still some of Warren because that was the rumor. But you would think that Austria would have accepted a bit more of Columbus if the alternative was to lose his district, particularly since his CD can still be make quite safe (above 5% or maybe 6% GOP PVI as I recall).  So to me it remains a mystery, absent Stivers not liking what his CD would look like, and/or Tiberi not liking using the northern counties running rather far afield for his offset, rather than going south to pick up Fairfield County, etc, which are nearer by and with which maybe he feels more comfortable. But are rather egocentric reasons for both of them, but whatever.

I wonder if we will ever really know what the motives were here, assuming this is what will happen.

[krazen1211]

Here's the legislation. Map to follow.

http://www.legislature.state.oh.us/BillText129/129_HB_319_I_N.html



This is going to be a bloodbath. Lucas County is split 3 ways and the new 9th is a work of art.

Chabot to have all of Warren County. Bye bye Dreihaus.

The new Franklin district is numbered the 3rd. Franklin County is still split 3 ways.

[TJ in Oregon]

Yikes.... The 7th stretches from Erie County to Tuscarawas. I'm curious to see where my parents' house ends up. This has to mutilate communities of interest to a whole new level. Wow.

I can't wait to see the map.

Edit: Erie County is also split 3 ways. They weren't messing around I guess?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This may be dumb question, but is there any way this map could be struck down by a court if it violates communities of interest atrociously enough? 

[dpmapper]

The Turner/Austria district seems to be much of Austria's territory, stretching east from Dayton to the counties south of Columbus.  Stivers's new district is a > shape around it: Union and Madison remain, then through what seems like western/southern Franklin all the way to Athens, and then back to the southwest to pick up Highland County.  Very weird.  

No surprise that with all of this they manage to put parts of Stark (I assume Canton?) into Ryan's district.  The rest of Stark is now in Gibbs's district, which stretches to pick up southern Lorain.  

[Brittain33]

I'm pretty shocked that Capri Cafaro is Senate Minority Leader. Wasn't she kind of a joke candidate for Congress in '04?

[krazen1211]

This may be dumb question, but is there any way this map could be struck down by a court if it violates communities of interest atrociously enough? 

You mean like the Illinois map? No.

[minionofmidas]

Do we have a map?

[krazen1211]

Wow.

http://blogs.dixcdn.com/capitalblog/

[Padfoot]

Wow.

http://blogs.dixcdn.com/capitalblog/

I can't express in words how utterly disgusted I am by this map.

[krazen1211]

The 15th and 9th districts are quite absurd. The 15th unnecessarily so; it should swap territory with the 10th or 12th. It would be cleaner to run the 15th up to Richland County and the 12th down to Athens; either way Athens is drowned in Columbus suburbs.

[DrScholl]

Not the picture of a healthy political party, this map is a desperate gerrymander. It's the worst one of the entire cycle.

[minionofmidas]

Lol 15th.

Someone do me a detailed reconstruction of the 16th... R's must be feeling fairly confident of winning it (or just seeing no better way to keep Renacci alive).

How solid is the 1st district shore-up of Chabot - not today (I have little doubt it's solid in 2012), but for later in the decade?

[Miles]

The 6th is still very winnable for a West Virginia-type Democrat.

I drew it in DRA and its 51-52% McCain, but should be over 60% Democratic at the state level.

[krazen1211]

Lol 15th.

Someone do me a detailed reconstruction of the 16th... R's must be feeling fairly confident of winning it (or just seeing no better way to keep Renacci alive).

How solid is the 1st district shore-up of Chabot - not today (I have little doubt it's solid in 2012), but for later in the decade?

Chabot got a 7 point boost from 2008. He used to get ~53-56% of the vote in a typical election. Warren County is growing quickly while Hamilton is shrinking.

The 6th is still winnable for the Democrats, as is the 16th probably.

[dpmapper]

I'm guessing they are trying to keep Austria semi-content by letting him stick with his current counties.  But yeah, that 15th is stupid.  Other questions:

* why triple chop in Mercer and Erie?  
* the path that Fudge's district takes to get down to Akron is unnecessarily Republican and populated.  Bath, Richfield, and Broadview Heights are all Republican-leaning.  

But the idea of taking Jordan into Toledo, so that the 9th can take more of Kucinich's district, is pretty good.  Better than taking him into Lorain or Cuyahoga like a lot of our drafts did.  

ETA: I wonder if Turner is retiring, or heading for a different office?  He loses more of Dayton proper to Boehner (as opposed to some D suburbs which might be less attached to him) and the rest of the district is Austria's territory.  Doesn't seem like something he'd just accept willingly.