ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[UncleSam]

Strong Lean R 53-45 for Cramer.

King Lear, is that you?

She has been down by 4 and 5 in two of the three polls. Saying she loses by 8 is not that much of a departure from reality. H&ll, it is even with the moe man.

I do think that North Dakota will be one of if not the hardest state hit by the SCOTUS news for Democrats. North Dakota is very socially conservative and strongly pro-life. That being said, I don't think there is any reason to think that Heitkamp will lose by 8 at this point. Maybe SCOTUS turns a 2 or 3 point deficit into a 4 or 5 point loss, but we have not yet seen any evidence she will lose badly, or even that she's worse than a tossup.

Still think this race is merely tilt R, though I do think this is starting to look like it'll flip before any other Trump state seats outside of Indiana or (bizarrely) Florida.

How the h$ll am I King Lear when my guess falls within the moe of two of the three polls out?! Completely ridiculous and annoying!

The problem is that you are generally, from what Ive seen so far, the most hackish in favor of Reps when it comes to predictions. Yes, she is down in the polls, but she was in 2012. The campaign season has barely begun and Cramer has already said a load of stupid stuff. The tariffs are going to continually hammer the state. The state is elastic. Generally, I hate to make predictions this far out because there are too many variables that could swing the election one way or the other. Tossup is appropriate, Strong Lean R, at least this early, is not.

Bagel is definitely no an R hack in terms of elections. Hell, I can’t dver remember him getting a race wrong that he called for Rs.

Also Bagel, I never said you were king lear, that was the other guy. I just said I really highly doubt Heitkamp will lose by 8 - that is a big loss for an incumbent senator. I did agree that she may lose by more than many would like to admit is probably on this forum.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Strong Lean R 53-45 for Cramer.

King Lear, is that you?

She has been down by 4 and 5 in two of the three polls. Saying she loses by 8 is not that much of a departure from reality. H&ll, it is even with the moe man.

I do think that North Dakota will be one of if not the hardest state hit by the SCOTUS news for Democrats. North Dakota is very socially conservative and strongly pro-life. That being said, I don't think there is any reason to think that Heitkamp will lose by 8 at this point. Maybe SCOTUS turns a 2 or 3 point deficit into a 4 or 5 point loss, but we have not yet seen any evidence she will lose badly, or even that she's worse than a tossup.

Still think this race is merely tilt R, though I do think this is starting to look like it'll flip before any other Trump state seats outside of Indiana or (bizarrely) Florida.

How the h$ll am I King Lear when my guess falls within the moe of two of the three polls out?! Completely ridiculous and annoying!

The problem is that you are generally, from what Ive seen so far, the most hackish in favor of Reps when it comes to predictions. Yes, she is down in the polls, but she was in 2012. The campaign season has barely begun and Cramer has already said a load of stupid stuff. The tariffs are going to continually hammer the state. The state is elastic. Generally, I hate to make predictions this far out because there are too many variables that could swing the election one way or the other. Tossup is appropriate, Strong Lean R, at least this early, is not.

Bagel is definitely no an R hack in terms of elections. Hell, I can’t dver remember him getting a race wrong that he called for Rs.

Also Bagel, I never said you were king lear, that was the other guy. I just said I really highly doubt Heitkamp will lose by 8 - that is a big loss for an incumbent senator. I did agree that she may lose by more than many would like to admit is probably on this forum.

Well, I did guess Roy Moore would win 53-45, and that we were screwed in several special elections such as Wisconsin SD 10 where I projected a Jarchow win like a few minutes after the polls closed, so I am not perfect, nor am I even that good, but I sure as h$ll am not King Lear either.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1012070304091435010

I wonder what his nickname for Heitkamp will be...

Horrible Heidi? Heidi the hack?

[OneJ]

I personally like High Heidi. Both Trump and Cramer could paint her as a liberal hippie that’ll threaten to vote for values not of North Dakota.

[BudgieForce]

Inside Elections moved ND from Toss-up to Tilt R, meaning that ND is more likely to flip than NV or AZ according to them. And I thought Charlie Cook's Senate ratings were bad.

I could see the argument if we had more polling, however North Dakota's built in republican bias isnt enough for me to agree with it being tilt-R, not yet anyway.

[Greatblueheron]

Inside Elections moved ND from Toss-up to Tilt R, meaning that ND is more likely to flip than NV or AZ according to them. And I thought Charlie Cook's Senate ratings were bad.

This is an unwarranted move on the part of Inside Elections. One bad poll for Senator Heitkamp, doesn’t change the fact that this race is a Tossup.

[Zaybay]

Inside Elections moved ND from Toss-up to Tilt R, meaning that ND is more likely to flip than NV or AZ according to them. And I thought Charlie Cook's Senate ratings were bad.

This is an unwarranted move on the part of Inside Elections. One bad poll for Senator Heitkamp, doesn’t change the fact that this race is a Tossup.

Pundits this year have generally been pretty poor. A similar situation occurred with Cook, where they moved PA-01 from tossup to lean R because of 1 poll by Monmouth that showed Wallace behind popular Fitzpatrick by 7, and only by 1 if taking likely voters, a usually R group, into account. They refuse to move obviously competitive races(AZ Gov, GA) to the competitive category, but keep races that seem likely or safe(WV, AZ senate) in the tossup category. Its odd.

[Ronnie]

Hellraiser Heidi

[Arkansas Yankee]

I personally like High Heidi. Both Trump and Cramer could paint her as a liberal hippie that’ll threaten to vote for values not of North Dakota.

I do not think that is the best way to attack her.  I do not think it will stick.  Although voting against the Trump selected SCOUS nominee might stick.

The better attack is that a Democrat Senate will attack the interests of North Dakota or will not legislate in favor of those interests and there will not be anything that Heidi can do about.   Only a GOP Senate can protect North Dakota interests with The current divisions in the country.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hellraiser Heidi

Surely that's not a Trump nickname, right? That sounds badass.

[IceSpear]

Look out for Braun in Indiana

Great advice for Heini Heidkempt.

[OneJ]

I personally like High Heidi. Both Trump and Cramer could paint her as a liberal hippie that’ll threaten to vote for values not of North Dakota.

I do not think that is the best way to attack her.  I do not think it will stick.  Although voting against the Trump selected SCOUS nominee might stick.

The better attack is that a Democrat Senate will attack the interests of North Dakota or will not legislate in favor of those interests and there will not be anything that Heidi can do about.   Only a GOP Senate can protect North Dakota interests with The current divisions in the country.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. The vast majority of the general public does not care enough about SCOTUS to vote on it. In fact, this issue is often listed as one of the least important issues of all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why in the world are people speculating about T***p's f**king nicknames as if people actually voted based on them?

[UncleSam]

Obviously the line of attack will be SCOTUS, with the aim being twofold: 1. To create a wedge issue where Cramer can demonstrate he will be much more dependable to conservatives on, and 2. To pressure Heitkamp to vote for the nominee. If she does, she will depress her base a bit but appease swing voters, if she doesn’t, she honestly probably just loses. The obsession of this forum on nonsense buzzwords like ‘retail politics’ is bizarre. She’s a strong politician who is going to have a tightrope to wall across, just like the other deep red state Democrats (and arguably a tougher path than any other senator - at least Montana and Missouri and Indiana were 20 point losses with some down ballot Dem support, while WV is historically Democratic. Meanwhile, ND was a 36 point loss in 2016 and has a much weaker Democratic tradition than WV...).

Lean R, toss up if Heitkamp votes for the nominee in a non controversial fashion (aka the nominee would be confirmed anyway).

[BudgieForce]

Obviously the line of attack will be SCOTUS, with the aim being twofold: 1. To create a wedge issue where Cramer can demonstrate he will be much more dependable to conservatives on, and 2. To pressure Heitkamp to vote for the nominee. If she does, she will depress her base a bit but appease swing voters, if she doesn’t, she honestly probably just loses. The obsession of this forum on nonsense buzzwords like ‘retail politics’ is bizarre. She’s a strong politician who is going to have a tightrope to wall across, just like the other deep red state Democrats (and arguably a tougher path than any other senator - at least Montana and Missouri and Indiana were 20 point losses with some down ballot Dem support, while WV is historically Democratic. Meanwhile, ND was a 36 point loss in 2016 and has a much weaker Democratic tradition than WV...).

Lean R, toss up if Heitkamp votes for the nominee in a non controversial fashion (aka the nominee would be confirmed anyway).

We "obsess" over retail politics because thats how Heitkamp won in 2012 even with Romney at the top of the ticket. This race should arguably be easier for her since there's no Republican presidential candidate running on the same ballot.

[ON Progressive]

Obviously the line of attack will be SCOTUS, with the aim being twofold: 1. To create a wedge issue where Cramer can demonstrate he will be much more dependable to conservatives on, and 2. To pressure Heitkamp to vote for the nominee. If she does, she will depress her base a bit but appease swing voters, if she doesn’t, she honestly probably just loses. The obsession of this forum on nonsense buzzwords like ‘retail politics’ is bizarre. She’s a strong politician who is going to have a tightrope to wall across, just like the other deep red state Democrats (and arguably a tougher path than any other senator - at least Montana and Missouri and Indiana were 20 point losses with some down ballot Dem support, while WV is historically Democratic. Meanwhile, ND was a 36 point loss in 2016 and has a much weaker Democratic tradition than WV...).

Lean R, toss up if Heitkamp votes for the nominee in a non controversial fashion (aka the nominee would be confirmed anyway).

You think most people care for SCOTUS when the majority of Americans can’t even name a single judge? Lmao.

[Zaybay]

Obviously the line of attack will be SCOTUS, with the aim being twofold: 1. To create a wedge issue where Cramer can demonstrate he will be much more dependable to conservatives on, and 2. To pressure Heitkamp to vote for the nominee. If she does, she will depress her base a bit but appease swing voters, if she doesn’t, she honestly probably just loses. The obsession of this forum on nonsense buzzwords like ‘retail politics’ is bizarre. She’s a strong politician who is going to have a tightrope to wall across, just like the other deep red state Democrats (and arguably a tougher path than any other senator - at least Montana and Missouri and Indiana were 20 point losses with some down ballot Dem support, while WV is historically Democratic. Meanwhile, ND was a 36 point loss in 2016 and has a much weaker Democratic tradition than WV...).

Lean R, toss up if Heitkamp votes for the nominee in a non controversial fashion (aka the nominee would be confirmed anyway).

This implies 2 things.

1. Voters have the SC on their mind when voting and its a major issue

2. Cramer is competent and can effectively deliver this message

3. Heidi is just a D to voters

The problem is that none of these statements are true. As other posters have noted, the SC is not really a top issue when it comes to politics. Many people dont even know one SC justice, much less the partisan composition of it. The myth that the SC seat matters came from the jumbled explanations trying to figure out how Trump won. And like many others, its incorrect.

Cramer is also unable to deliver this message effectively. He is a gaffe machine, as shown when he made that woman comment a month ago. His ads have been pretty bad, saying "we all like Heidi". There was a reason this guy was not the first choice of the Rs.

Heidi also is a great politician, similar to Collins in caliber. I agree with you that retail politics is a bit overused in these forums, but the phrase has some truth to it. Her ads have highlighted bipartisan appeal, and many Rs even admit to being fans of her. A state like ND has very few people, so going out and doing things like townhalls and events can sway elections.

And one point I would like to make to the entire forum is to be weary of polls from ND. They are awful. ND has weird laws when it comes to polling, such as not being able to do Live caller, which is considered one of the best types of polling. There is also no Voter registration in ND, so you cant tell how many Ds or Rs are in the state. Pollsters usually just guess, and that can be bad in wave elections such as this. In 2012, Berg was predicted to win the state by 5.5%, outside the MOE, he lost by 1%.
Also, similarly to IN, there are only like 2 polls, so we should probably wait for more data.

Or, you know, we can just keep getting Texas Senate polling, cause its not like every result is around Cruz+6 /s

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why in the world are people speculating about T***p's f**king nicknames as if people actually voted based on them?

Because it's fun and is an excellent example of how immature our current President is and what a stupid time we are living in.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why in the world are people speculating about T***p's f**king nicknames as if people actually voted based on them?

Because it's fun and is an excellent example of how immature our current President is and what a stupid time we are living in.

And how immature are we for focusing on this instead of all the ways his administration is screwing over this country (or, in this case, instead of meaningful electoral news)?

[Arkansas Yankee]

Why in the world are people speculating about T***p's f**king nicknames as if people actually voted based on them?

Because it's fun and is an excellent example of how immature our current President is and what a stupid time we are living in.

And how immature are we for focusing on this instead of all the ways his administration is screwing over this country (or, in this case, instead of meaningful electoral news)?

Yep! He is screwing us with a roaring economy.

Yep!  He is screwing us by ending climate change boondoggle spending.  You know I would believe you lefties were serious about climate change if you supported nuclear energy. Instead you suport all sorts of wild spending schemes.

[junior chįmp]

Why in the world are people speculating about T***p's f**king nicknames as if people actually voted based on them?

Because it's fun and is an excellent example of how immature our current President is and what a stupid time we are living in.

And how immature are we for focusing on this instead of all the ways his administration is screwing over this country (or, in this case, instead of meaningful electoral news)?

Yep! He is screwing us with a roaring economy.

Yep!  He is screwing us by ending climate change boondoggle spending.  You know I would believe you lefties were serious about climate change if you supported nuclear energy. Instead you suport all sorts of wild spending schemes.

Yes...the political party that turned America from the world's greatest creditor nation to the world's greatest debtor nation is one to talk of ''wild spending schemes''

The last time a Republican president and Congress balanced the budget was in the 1920s and yet somehow the word ''fiscally Conservative'' still exists

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why in the world are people speculating about T***p's f**king nicknames as if people actually voted based on them?

Because it's fun and is an excellent example of how immature our current President is and what a stupid time we are living in.

And how immature are we for focusing on this instead of all the ways his administration is screwing over this country (or, in this case, instead of meaningful electoral news)?

Yep! He is screwing us with a roaring economy.

Yep!  He is screwing us by ending climate change boondoggle spending.  You know I would believe you lefties were serious about climate change if you supported nuclear energy. Instead you suport all sorts of wild spending schemes.

So far, the economic growth has been exactly the same as the past.... 8 years of Obama. 2-2.3% GDP is basically the average of Obama's growth.

The reason for this is Trump has barely changed the economy at all... the tax bill is $2.3 billion a year, which is only slightly more than 1% of our 20 trillion economy. The tax cut has a... 0.1% impact on GDP, at best. So Trump has had maybe a 3% impact on the economy at best when you consider his deregulation policies (and this is being generous).

Trump has also increased government spending since Obama.

Presidents don't really have a large impact on the economy (including Obama, btw... he hardly changed anything about the economy aside from his first two years). Only FDR & LBJ had a big impact on the economy... the rest of the Presidents barely changed the economy when you look at the actual effects of their policies. Remember the media hypes up things much more than is actually seen in reality... I thought you would realize this after 70 years on this earth, but I suppose not. Economics would be a good class to take for reeducation.

Also... did you even care when the economy was under 4% GDP growth under Bill Clinton? From what I can tell, you still hated Bill even then because of bias. Don't act hollier than thou when you are just as bad as everyone else...

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Fox News also moved the rating away from Heitkamp, from Tossup to Lean R. Lol.

[Bidenworth2020]

Why in the world are people speculating about T***p's f**king nicknames as if people actually voted based on them?

Because it's fun and is an excellent example of how immature our current President is and what a stupid time we are living in.

And how immature are we for focusing on this instead of all the ways his administration is screwing over this country (or, in this case, instead of meaningful electoral news)?

Yep! He is screwing us with a roaring economy.

Yep!  He is screwing us by ending climate change boondoggle spending.  You know I would believe you lefties were serious about climate change if you supported nuclear energy. Instead you suport all sorts of wild spending schemes.

we do!

[Adam Griffin]

IT'S OVER (but at least Dems will retake the Senate!)