Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

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My riding... London North Centre... went solid NDP. First time it has. Even during Rae we stayed conservative. Looks like we have had a significant demographic change since then. Hopefully we stay competitive in the future and this isn't a sign of things to come (NDP trend)

London North "stayed Conservative" in 1990 thanks to byelected Diane Cunningham.  Otherwise, it might have gone NDP, too (and in fact, the present boundaries probably *would* have given the NDP pole position in 1990)

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Another "surprise": Taras Natyshak's close call in Essex.  (Though I was sort of expecting his advantage to narrow--but not necessarily to this extent.)

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Are you joking? Obviously all things are possible in Canada, but this is a horrific result for them - they're left with a random string of locally popular timeservers, which is not a good sort of caucus to have at that size. They are going to have to battle very hard to remain relevant before they can think of recovery.

Though who knows; if a viable byelection transpires before long, they could campaign on a return-us-to-official-party-status platform--that's how Andrea Horwath got into Queen's Park, after all...

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And this is why despite all the complaints about it, I like the two party system in the US. So frustrating to see RW Govt's take power because of a fractured left wing.

Eh. There's underlying assumptions there that Liberal + NDP are "mere progressives" to borrow a Christian term and that merged party would get 100% of their votes. I don't believe that either assumption is true. The Liberals and NDP are more diverse than their old conservative counterparts and therefore would have trouble holding that coalition together.

I mean, can you really see Scott Brison sitting in a caucus with say Niki Ashton? My guess is if the Liberals and NDP merged right-Liberals would jump to the Tories in sufficient numbers to create a 50/50 two party system like Oz and the USA.

Exactly.  Had Andrea Horwath won, you'd probably have grousing over a "fractured right (or at least centre/right) wing".

Incidentally,  Ann Hoggarth in Barrie-Innisfil had by far the worst incumbent Lib result: 12.52% (a point worse than the non-incumbent running in BSOM next door)

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One interesting thing to note in Durham Region that Whitby really didn't turn out to be that distinctive compared to Ajax and Pickering for NDP vote.  Since these suburbs are all pretty similar (except for Whitby being in the Oshawa CMA) I guess it isn't really surprising.

Is that observation on behalf of Whitby being underwhelming (which I disagree on), or Ajax/Pickering being surprising?

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A bit odd, I think.  The worst region for the Green Party is the city of Toronto (though not by much.)

NDP/Lib absorbing all that energy; plus traditionally rotten results in ethnoburbia.

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Ottawa 8 ridings
Carleton, Kanata-Carleton, Nepean, Orleans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean

Total votes: 435,231
P.C: 147,814, 34.0%
NDP: 130,184, 29.9
Liberal: 131,491, 30.2
Green: 16,866, 3.9
Other 8,876

The NDP's best ever showing in Ottawa, probably, and still third place (and just one seat!) We will never elect a progressive mayor.

Was it actually better than 1990?

Question I have: how did 1990 compare to the Cassidy/Gigantes 70s?

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I expected Guelph to be won by the Greens, but not with nearly 50% of the vote, and the NDP in third place.

Schreiner was a double-barrelled Lib-NDP proxy; so what's so surprising, under the circumstance?  

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In the Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock riding, the Greens received 20% of the vote.

Parry Sound-Muskoka.

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There are polling division maps, apparently (only select ridings): https://globalnews.ca/news/4260146/ontario-election-poll-level-results-2/

Can't find the data anywhere.

And the new polling divisions are ghastly.

Truly.

I said it before after the Whitby-Oshawa byelection (when this new system made its debut): this is an absolute, positive, unmitigated ***disaster*** for those of us into polling-division electoral geography.  Essentially, they destroyed the point of it all--whatever *anyone* used these maps for, in order to get an in-depth political feel for a place (or as a guide to future campaigning)--at this point, they might as well discard polling divisions altogether and go completely internet-balloting, or something.  Put it all out of its mercy.

And this is something you *can't* blame the Ford Tories on.  (Nor can you blame it for the Ford Tories being elected, as campaigns have earlier polling division results as bases to work from.)

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Is there any way the Greens and the Liberals could team up in the legislature to give themselves official party status?

Who knows.  Let's remember that Elizabeth May has had a history of setting up federal Green-Lib alliances; and that Schreiner essentially serves as a "Guelph Liberal" proxy.

Also IIRC in the NDP's own 2003-4 interval as a 7-seat party, populist Tory Bill Murdoch offered (abortively) to caucus with the Dippers to give *them* OPS.

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Is that observation on behalf of Whitby being underwhelming (which I disagree on), or Ajax/Pickering being surprising?

I was under the impression that they were competitive in Whitby (though Whitby still leaned more to the Tories) but not at all competititive in Ajax/Pickering.

Agree in that it was expected to be either a Rod Phillips runaway or at least a Phillips-Dickson race of sorts.  (Maybe impressions skewed by the 2011 federal race, when the NDP basically put up a paper campaign vs the Holland-Alexander epic battle)

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The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

But he's not a Liberal. Not even close. He's supported the Conservatives both Federally and Provincially since at least 1988, and probably before that too.

Oh and of course, there is the little issue that he was Ontario PC leader.

Not exactly comparable; but the little issue that he was Ontario NDP Premier didn't dissuade Bob Rae from seeking the federal Liberal leadership;  (And even less exactly comparable: federal PC leader Jean Charest becoming Quebec Liberal Premier)

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One Toronto result of note is York Centre, deemed earlier as "both Conservative enough and Ford Nation enough." With its "white ethnic" demographics of Russians, Orthodox Jews and Italians there are some shades of southern Brooklyn and if TO had NYC-type voting patterns it would probably be the most consistently right-wing seat in the city by far.  

The PC candidate was Russian-Jewish and appealed to that demographic that has failed until now to get someone from that community elected.  But what's also notable was the "Ward 9" or "Downsview" part of the riding, which is heavily Italian.  Ford got over 60% of the vote there municipally and this time the area was dominated by the PCs.  They have expanded on their "winning strategy" (well it worked once for the federal Conservatives - harder to do when it was represented by Monte Kwinter provincially) of "let's just focus on Jews and Israel." And it paid off.

It also paid off in Eglinton-Lawrence: Mike Colle lost an especial lot of ground in his traditional strongholds west of the Allen Road, which also happened to go for Ford mayorally.

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Earl, where's the lolLiberals swing map ?

You're a sadist. But fine:



Not very interesting at all. Smaller decreases in areas where the Liberal vote was already emaciated. Biggest decrease in the Soo.

A lot of the biggest decreases (the Soo; Guelph; Toronto Centre; Scarborough Centre) were in places where the Liberal incumbents either retired or were replaced through byelection.

Interesting to note that perhaps the palest red in Toronto was in Doug Ford's home riding of Etobicoke Centre--wonder if the Kinga Surma controversy drove some voters back to the relative security of incumbent Yvan Baker (and it, too, is a riding with a "too rich for NDP, too educated for Ford" element, in spite of itself)

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I’d be interested in a PC-NDP swing map.

This was on my to do list, so here:



Probably a strong correlation with education levels.

Would make sense if there was an education correlation. The exit poll I posted earlier had the NDP winning those with bachelor's and advanced degrees, while losing among those with no post-secondary education and those who graduated from community college/trade schools.

In a way, it's also like two campaign ships passing in the night.  Remember how in 2014, the PCs lost the least ground among traditional "affluent" demographics, while the NDP played the rust-belt populism card and forfeited much of their urban-left-cultural-class base to the Wynne Liberals.  So it makes sense that with their respective shifting campaign strategies, things swung as they did...

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Here's all the ridings where the Liberals received 30% of the vote (bold if retained by OLP) or more and percentage point margin of vicotry or loss.

Ottawa-Vanier  42.9%  13.2 over NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North  39.9%  2.8 over NDP
Ottawa South  39.6%   10.4 over PC
Orleans  39.1%   3.9 over PC
Don Valley West     38.9%  0.4 over PC
Eglinton-Lawrence  38.7%  1.5 behind PC
Thunder Bay-Atikokan  36%  0.3 over NDP
Don Valley East    35.9%  2.8 over PC
Oakville  35.8%   7.9 behind PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore  35%  7.3 behind PC
Etobicoke Centre  34.4%  8.3 behind PC   
Scarborough-Guildwood  33.4%  0.3 over PC
St. Paul's  33.4%  2.6 behind NDP   
Ottawa Centre   32.8%  13.3 behind NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge    32%  18.5 behind PC      
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell   31.7%  9.3 behind PC
Don Valley North  30.9%  13.5 behind PC
Mississauga East-Cooksville  30.2%  11.0 behind PC

Only two of those (St. Paul's and GPR) not being contested by a sitting member.

As per my earlier point, interesting to see Etobicoke Centre a full point higher than St. Paul's.

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Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke has a lower than usual Federal lead for Conservatives due to a former MP running as Independent and taking 11%. Also, the MPP is a bland son of a former MPP, while the MP is a controversial ultra social conservative.

Another place where an independent figured into the 2011 totals: Simcoe-Grey (where MP Helena Guergis was on the ballot)

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My neighbourhood's poll went:

PC 903 (57.7%)
NDP 461 (29.4%)
Liberal 152 (9.7%)
Green 50 (3.2%)

Not surprised at all. PCs won every single poll in my riding (often by huge margins).

Of course, given the present megapolls, "every single poll" doesn't carry the daunting gravity that it used to...

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Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

Actually, more Lanark than Carleton--or at least, they share far more geographic frontier.  (But in a sense, the Lanark-Renfrew-Carleton confluence just make up one large region of traditional Scots-inflected Toryism.)

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The riding's name irks me. The part of the riding that is in Nipissing District (South Algonquin and a chunk of Algonquin Park) makes up 1% of the population of the riding, and is very much isolated from the rest of Nipissing District.

Having Pembroke in there is fine, I guess since it's not technically part of Renfrew County, but I'd drop it too.

I don't think people were ever that preoccupied over whether Pembroke was part of Renfrew County or not--"independent cities" and "separated towns" never having carried the mapping-geographic value in Ontario that they do in, say, Virginia.  (As affirmed by the Canadian census.)

Though I have been finding that younger people tend to read unnecessarily more into said Ontario-style municipal independence/separation--perhaps because the "common geography" of clear political/geographic boundaries (as depicted on road maps and in the formatting of physical municipal directories) has fallen by the wayside in our electronic, GPS-focused age.  Once upon a time, it seems, Ontarians "knew their counties" (particularly when they were depicted in big coloured blocks on official Ontario highway maps in the 60s/70s); now it's like they don't care less...

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My poll (Ottawa South, poll #1): OLP 609, NDP 500, PC 315

Not bad. The NDP finished third in every corresponding poll in 2014. In 2011, the NDP finished 2nd in my poll and the next apartment over (which went NDP in the 2011 federal election). It seems quite likely the NDP won my apartment complex, but we'll never know

Thanks for lamenting the Great Polling Division Dumb-Down (TM)

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He voted NDP thinking that would be the correct tactical vote in this riding,

Where did he get that idea?

Well I know I was egging him on to vote NDP but he said he would decide which anti-Ford vote had the best chance for himself, so I figured for sure he would vote Liberal. I was actually quite surprised to learn he had voted NDP. Not all people are political obsessives like us, so when he saw the NDP pull neck-and-neck with the PCs province-wide, it would not have been unreasonable for him to think that the NDP was the logical tactical vote, not taking into account the nuances of his individual riding. He also until the last redistribution was in Mississauga-Erindale, which is not quite the same profile as Mississauga-Lakeshore and the NDP did come in 2nd in its primary successor ridings. Goes to show the perils of tactical voting and how it can go wrong

No, I know. I am quite aware people don't know how to vote tactically. Especially in this election. I was genuinely curious where he might have thought that. I saw some sites that said the NDP was the tactical vote in Ottawa South, so I was wondering if he saw it on some site somewhere.

Well, there were sites which recommended a *universal* NDP-ward tactical vote, even in Oakville or Don Valley West situations  And given what actually happened, I can't say the tactical NDP option in Ottawa South turned out *that* misguided in the end--particularly when we consider the riding's long been a bastion of Blue Liberalism, whether under Manley or McGuinty.

As far as "not knowing how to vote tactically", it swings both ways: I caught one person prepared to vote Liberal in Kitchener South-Hespeler because they were ahead of the NDP in 2014 and thereby the "strategic choice".  (By that logic, the NDP should have topped up around 25 seats or so.)

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Ottawa South really is a safe Liberal seat isn't it?  It wasn't even close.  It's long been fool's gold for the Tories, maybe it's fool's gold for the NDP too.

It's only "not close" because the opposition was more or less equally split.

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The riding's name irks me. The part of the riding that is in Nipissing District (South Algonquin and a chunk of Algonquin Park) makes up 1% of the population of the riding, and is very much isolated from the rest of Nipissing District.

Having Pembroke in there is fine, I guess since it's not technically part of Renfrew County, but I'd drop it too.

I don't think people were ever that preoccupied over whether Pembroke was part of Renfrew County or not--"independent cities" and "separated towns" never having carried the mapping-geographic value in Ontario that they do in, say, Virginia.  (As affirmed by the Canadian census.)

This is becoming a trend with riding names now. Look at Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston (why not just Lanark-Frontenac?), Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (why not Bruce-Grey?), Brantford-Brant (why not just Brant?) and Elgin-Middlesex-London (why not just Elgin-Middlesex?).

Though that's more "having a piece of the pie" than a direct reflection of "independent" status.  (And it doesn't explain the ungainliest piece-of-the-pie riding name of all: Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes.)


Then there's the former Chatham-Kent-Essex, where the former Kent county actually became Chatham-Kent upon becoming a unitary entity.  (That city-county combined label concept was pioneered with Ottawa-Carleton and Hamilton-Wentworth regions--until each became "megacities", of course.  And in the states, there's the likes of Nashville-Davidson, Lexington-Fayette, Miami-Dade, etc...)