Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[Holmes]

Timmins stay winning.

Earl, I wouldn't say Spacek was popular in 2014. He was elected mayor, yeah, but the bench was pretty thin that he had almost no opposition and municipal elections in Timmins are fueled by anger that he rode that wave (many city councillors also went down that year). He's not very beloved right now though.

[DC Al Fine]

Earl, where's the lolLiberals swing map ?

You're a sadist. But fine:

Hey now. There's very little for me to like in Canadian politics. Let me have this one thing

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[King of Kensington]

One Toronto result of note is York Centre, deemed earlier as "both Conservative enough and Ford Nation enough." With its "white ethnic" demographics of Russians, Orthodox Jews and Italians there are some shades of southern Brooklyn and if TO had NYC-type voting patterns it would probably be the most consistently right-wing seat in the city by far.  

The PC candidate was Russian-Jewish and appealed to that demographic that has failed until now to get someone from that community elected.  But what's also notable was the "Ward 9" or "Downsview" part of the riding, which is heavily Italian.  Ford got over 60% of the vote there municipally and this time the area was dominated by the PCs.  They have expanded on their "winning strategy" (well it worked once for the federal Conservatives - harder to do when it was represented by Monte Kwinter provincially) of "let's just focus on Jews and Israel." And it paid off.

[Boston Bread]

I’d be interested in a PC-NDP swing map.

[Hatman 🍁]

Timmins stay winning.

Earl, I wouldn't say Spacek was popular in 2014. He was elected mayor, yeah, but the bench was pretty thin that he had almost no opposition and municipal elections in Timmins are fueled by anger that he rode that wave (many city councillors also went down that year). He's not very beloved right now though.

Well, I'm trying to figure out why the PCs declined in vote share. Do you know why?

[Holmes]

Timmins stay winning.

Earl, I wouldn't say Spacek was popular in 2014. He was elected mayor, yeah, but the bench was pretty thin that he had almost no opposition and municipal elections in Timmins are fueled by anger that he rode that wave (many city councillors also went down that year). He's not very beloved right now though.

Well, I'm trying to figure out why the PCs declined in vote share. Do you know why?

I'd say Ford is a non-starter in the North. Kenora and Nippissing were only won due to the individual candidates and the Soo is the Soo. It's just that the North hates the Liberals even more, hence the anti-NDP vote went PC this time around.

As for Timmins, Bisson is an institution so it stands to reason that he would improve in an NDP surge election. My grandparents and parents, who voted PC in 2014, switched to NDP this year for example. They hate Ford.

[Hatman 🍁]

I’d be interested in a PC-NDP swing map.

This was on my to do list, so here:



Probably a strong correlation with education levels.

[Hatman 🍁]

Timmins stay winning.

Earl, I wouldn't say Spacek was popular in 2014. He was elected mayor, yeah, but the bench was pretty thin that he had almost no opposition and municipal elections in Timmins are fueled by anger that he rode that wave (many city councillors also went down that year). He's not very beloved right now though.

Well, I'm trying to figure out why the PCs declined in vote share. Do you know why?

I'd say Ford is a non-starter in the North. Kenora and Nippissing were only won due to the individual candidates and the Soo is the Soo. It's just that the North hates the Liberals even more, hence the anti-NDP vote went PC this time around.

As for Timmins, Bisson is an institution so it stands to reason that he would improve in an NDP surge election. My grandparents and parents, who voted PC in 2014, switched to NDP this year for example. They hate Ford.

The NDP improved in many northern ridings, but Timmins is the only one where the PCs lost support. Bisson was on the ballot in 2014, so it can't just be him.

[ON Progressive]

I’d be interested in a PC-NDP swing map.

This was on my to do list, so here:



Probably a strong correlation with education levels.

Would make sense if there was an education correlation. The exit poll I posted earlier had the NDP winning those with bachelor's and advanced degrees, while losing among those with no post-secondary education and those who graduated from community college/trade schools.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given that there was clearly almost no movement between those two parties, the map just shows which party increased their vote more for the most part.

[Hatman 🍁]

Given that there was clearly almost no movement between those two parties, the map just shows which party increased their vote more for the most part.

Indeed. It is in a way a map of what kind of Liberal swing voters there are in the riding.

[adma]

One Toronto result of note is York Centre, deemed earlier as "both Conservative enough and Ford Nation enough." With its "white ethnic" demographics of Russians, Orthodox Jews and Italians there are some shades of southern Brooklyn and if TO had NYC-type voting patterns it would probably be the most consistently right-wing seat in the city by far.  

The PC candidate was Russian-Jewish and appealed to that demographic that has failed until now to get someone from that community elected.  But what's also notable was the "Ward 9" or "Downsview" part of the riding, which is heavily Italian.  Ford got over 60% of the vote there municipally and this time the area was dominated by the PCs.  They have expanded on their "winning strategy" (well it worked once for the federal Conservatives - harder to do when it was represented by Monte Kwinter provincially) of "let's just focus on Jews and Israel." And it paid off.

It also paid off in Eglinton-Lawrence: Mike Colle lost an especial lot of ground in his traditional strongholds west of the Allen Road, which also happened to go for Ford mayorally.

[adma]

Earl, where's the lolLiberals swing map ?

You're a sadist. But fine:



Not very interesting at all. Smaller decreases in areas where the Liberal vote was already emaciated. Biggest decrease in the Soo.

A lot of the biggest decreases (the Soo; Guelph; Toronto Centre; Scarborough Centre) were in places where the Liberal incumbents either retired or were replaced through byelection.

Interesting to note that perhaps the palest red in Toronto was in Doug Ford's home riding of Etobicoke Centre--wonder if the Kinga Surma controversy drove some voters back to the relative security of incumbent Yvan Baker (and it, too, is a riding with a "too rich for NDP, too educated for Ford" element, in spite of itself)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I do think we should pause for a moment to comment on the total obliteration of the Liberals in the far south west of the province. Awesomely terrible results given their history there.

[King of Kensington]

Here's all the ridings where the Liberals received 30% of the vote (bold if retained by OLP) or more and percentage point margin of vicotry or loss.

Ottawa-Vanier  42.9%  13.2 over NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North  39.9%  2.8 over NDP
Ottawa South  39.6%   10.4 over PC
Orleans  39.1%   3.9 over PC
Don Valley West     38.9%  0.4 over PC
Eglinton-Lawrence  38.7%  1.5 behind PC
Thunder Bay-Atikokan  36%  0.3 over NDP
Don Valley East    35.9%  2.8 over PC
Oakville  35.8%   7.9 behind PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore  35%  7.3 behind PC
Etobicoke Centre  34.4%  8.3 behind PC   
Scarborough-Guildwood  33.4%  0.3 over PC
St. Paul's  33.4%  2.6 behind NDP   
Ottawa Centre   32.8%  13.3 behind NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge    32%  18.5 behind PC      
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell   31.7%  9.3 behind PC
Don Valley North  30.9%  13.5 behind PC
Mississauga East-Cooksville  30.2%  11.0 behind PC

[adma]

I’d be interested in a PC-NDP swing map.

This was on my to do list, so here:



Probably a strong correlation with education levels.

Would make sense if there was an education correlation. The exit poll I posted earlier had the NDP winning those with bachelor's and advanced degrees, while losing among those with no post-secondary education and those who graduated from community college/trade schools.

In a way, it's also like two campaign ships passing in the night.  Remember how in 2014, the PCs lost the least ground among traditional "affluent" demographics, while the NDP played the rust-belt populism card and forfeited much of their urban-left-cultural-class base to the Wynne Liberals.  So it makes sense that with their respective shifting campaign strategies, things swung as they did...

[adma]

Here's all the ridings where the Liberals received 30% of the vote (bold if retained by OLP) or more and percentage point margin of vicotry or loss.

Ottawa-Vanier  42.9%  13.2 over NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North  39.9%  2.8 over NDP
Ottawa South  39.6%   10.4 over PC
Orleans  39.1%   3.9 over PC
Don Valley West     38.9%  0.4 over PC
Eglinton-Lawrence  38.7%  1.5 behind PC
Thunder Bay-Atikokan  36%  0.3 over NDP
Don Valley East    35.9%  2.8 over PC
Oakville  35.8%   7.9 behind PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore  35%  7.3 behind PC
Etobicoke Centre  34.4%  8.3 behind PC   
Scarborough-Guildwood  33.4%  0.3 over PC
St. Paul's  33.4%  2.6 behind NDP   
Ottawa Centre   32.8%  13.3 behind NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge    32%  18.5 behind PC      
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell   31.7%  9.3 behind PC
Don Valley North  30.9%  13.5 behind PC
Mississauga East-Cooksville  30.2%  11.0 behind PC

Only two of those (St. Paul's and GPR) not being contested by a sitting member.

As per my earlier point, interesting to see Etobicoke Centre a full point higher than St. Paul's.

[King of Kensington]

Here's all the ridings where the Liberals received 30% of the vote (bold if retained by OLP) or more and percentage point margin of vicotry or loss.

Ottawa-Vanier  42.9%  13.2 over NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North  39.9%  2.8 over NDP
Ottawa South  39.6%   10.4 over PC
Orleans  39.1%   3.9 over PC
Don Valley West     38.9%  0.4 over PC
Eglinton-Lawrence  38.7%  1.5 behind PC
Thunder Bay-Atikokan  36%  0.3 over NDP
Don Valley East    35.9%  2.8 over PC
Oakville  35.8%   7.9 behind PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore  35%  7.3 behind PC
Etobicoke Centre  34.4%  8.3 behind PC   
Scarborough-Guildwood  33.4%  0.3 over PC
St. Paul's  33.4%  2.6 behind NDP   
Ottawa Centre   32.8%  13.3 behind NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge    32%  18.5 behind PC      
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell   31.7%  9.3 behind PC
Don Valley North  30.9%  13.5 behind PC
Mississauga East-Cooksville  30.2%  11.0 behind PC

Of the 7 seats the Liberals did win, only in two did they win with sizable margins - Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South - winning by 10 points or more.  Of the 5 closer ones, 2 were straight OLP-PC races (Don Valley West and Orleans), 1 was a Liberal-NDP race (Thunder Bay-Superior North), and 2 were three-way races (Don Valley East and Scarborough Guildwood).

Of the seats the 11 ridings the Liberals did not win, they came within 10 points in 7 of them.  Of these 7, 5 were PC-OLP races (Eglinton-Lawrence, Oakville, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell) and the 2 NDP-Liberal ones were two very different ridings - Thunder Bay-Atikokan and St. Paul's!

[King of Kensington]

You can see some "LibDem-ification" in DVW, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Mississauaga-Lakeshore, Oakville and Orleans.

[Hatman 🍁]

I created a quick swing-o-metre, and looks like Krago was right about the NDP needing to win by four points to get to a plurality of the seats. The PC geographical advantage is real.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I wonder if the controversy over the PC nomination in  Etobicoke-Centre hurt them. I also am guessing if Hoskins had ran for re-election he would have stood a good chance at getting re-elected which would have allowed them to hold on to official party status. Liberals really seemed to be hurt by retirements and open races in Central Toronto.

[DC Al Fine]

However, if the NDP actually attempts to reach the median voter in the Toronto suburbs then there is a good chance swing voters might not break as favorably for the PCs. In 2015 after all, Vaughan-Woodbridge gave the Libs+NDP combined around 53.5% in 2015, and it doesn't look like the riding changed all that much in redistricting. So there are clearly swing voters who would vote against the PC if given the proper appeal.

Vaughan is the epicenter of "blue Liberalism" in Ontario and given how the right-wing flank of the Liberal vote ditched Kathleen Wynne for moving the party too far to the left, it's not surprising how much the PC vote shot up there.  

Just because the combined Lib+NDP vote exceeded 50% doesn't mean it's winnable for a more centrist NDP once the PCs become less popular.  Unless the Liberals die completely and the NDP really morphs into something like the US Democrats.  But the party cultures are different and I expect some seats to turn blue if the NDP becomes the dominant force on the center-left.  Vaughan and other York Region seats are of course the type of places a renewed Liberal Party can win seats if they become a contender again.

Agreed. This might work for an election or two but it's not like the left would get endless majorities while the right is content to lose every election 60-40. The left would overreach or the right would adjust or both.

[Boston Bread]

Happy to see the large NDP swing in K-W, though sadly the NDP lost all the close races.

It’s interesting that Kitchener-Conestoga was the closest 2014 PC seat for the NDP, rather than Sarnia or Chatham.

[mileslunn]

Anybody able to give the vote percentages for the following:

Central Ontario
Durham Region
York Region
Peel region (both Brampton and Mississauga)
Halton Region
Hamilton-Niagara
Southwestern Ontario (otherwise 519 code)
Eastern Ontario (613 area code)
Southern Ontario (otherwise all the ridings that match their federal counterparts)
Ontario minus the 416 area code.

I am on vacation until July 1st so I will try putting up some maps when I get home.