US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[timothyinMD]

I can still see McIntyre and Shuler winning on that map. Their districts would only be a few points more Republican.

Giving Asheville to Foxx would weaken Shuler.

Its amazing that with Kissell's district, making only a few slight tweaks turns it into a GOP-leaning seat. You basically just cut of his Charlotte arm, added the rest of Union and then some of Rowan; his district went from 52% Obama to 56% McCain.

Yes.. the "could" still win.

My point was to create Republican-leaning districts that are still respectful (or at least more respectful) to contiguity than the map that was passed.   Odds being 50-50, this map should at least give Reps a 9-4 edge

[minionofmidas]

I can still see McIntyre and Shuler winning on that map. Their districts would only be a few points more Republican.

Giving Asheville to Foxx would weaken Shuler.

Its amazing that with Kissell's district, making only a few slight tweaks turns it into a GOP-leaning seat. You basically just cut of his Charlotte arm, added the rest of Union and then some of Rowan; his district went from 52% Obama to 56% McCain.

Yes.. the "could" still win.

My point was to create Republican-leaning districts that are still respectful (or at least more respectful) to contiguity than the map that was passed.   Odds being 50-50, this map should at least give Reps a 9-4 edge

It doesn't. And no "fair" map of the state would. You're not getting rid of McIntyre with that kind of map; you're not getting rid of Shuler either, though obviously the district would lean Republican if he retired.
It's not a bad map btw; interesting solution with that 7th district. (Probably can't be tweaked to be plurality Black?) Though I do wish people would listen to my complaints about the Lumbee Country.

[Miles]

Also, another observation, Myrick's district looks just like the one she had in the '90s. Minus Lincoln county and the northern tip of Mecklenburg, its basically the same district.

[timothyinMD]

Hey look at that. You're right. 

I thought it had a familiar feel to it.

[Yelnoc]

Is the swiggly-line district really necessary?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Is the swiggly-line district really necessary?

Which one? I count no fewer than four swiggly-line districts.

[nclib]

In the NC Senate, just seeing which non-black seats were drawn to go for Obama:

13   Robeson   Columbus
   52.4% Obama-46.7% McCain   
   41.9% white, 27.4% Native American, 26.4% black   
16   Wake (Raleigh)
   63.2% Obama-35.6% McCain   
   70.6% white, 15.0% black   
19   Cumberland (Fayetteville)   
   49.7% Obama-49.6% McCain   
   68.5% white, 22.5% black   
22   Durham (county and city), Person, and Caswell
   62.1% Obama-36.9% McCain   
   61.7% white, 36.9% black   
23   Orange (Chapel Hill)    Chatham
   66.5% Obama-32.4% McCain   
   77.0% white, 12.8% black   
32   Forsyth (Winston-Salem)
   69.3% Obama-29.8% McCain   
   45.3% white, 42.5% black   
37   Mecklenburg (Charlotte)
   66.3% Obama-32.8% McCain   
   58.5% white, 26.3% black   
49   Buncombe (Asheville)
   58.4% Obama-40.3% McCain   
   88.8% white, 6.8% black   

[minionofmidas]

19   Cumberland (Fayetteville)   
   49.7% Obama-49.6% McCain   
   68.5% white, 22.5% black   

Out of vague curiosity, how did such a district survive a gerrymandering onslaught? What constraints existed around it? I have a vague idea what might be, and am not curious enough to look it up myself.

[krazen1211]

19   Cumberland (Fayetteville)   
   49.7% Obama-49.6% McCain   
   68.5% white, 22.5% black   

Out of vague curiosity, how did such a district survive a gerrymandering onslaught? What constraints existed around it? I have a vague idea what might be, and am not curious enough to look it up myself.

Whole County provisions. NC-21 is a black district that contains all of Hoke and the most black sections of Cumberland. NC-19 is the rest of Cumberland.

[minionofmidas]

Playing around with the DRA... I don't see how you can get the district up to 68% White. Couldn't find it. You can get it into the McCain column, though, and the map for that is not the same as the maximum black pack. So possibly a rare case of the VRA helping the Dems. Or they just didn't do the maximum damage due to concerns about where incumbents live, lack of hope of taking the seat even at 52% McCain etc.
This is assuming no other counties involved, which means both districts are about 4% short of ideal population (within the SC limit for state legislatures, that is.)





In the first map, the Cumberland district is 51.5% McCain. In the second, the Cumberland-Hoke district is 52.4% McCain. In either case, the other is plurality (not majority) Black.

[minionofmidas]

Or maybe they just wanted to put Fort Bragg in the more Republican district, on account that the Obama percentages there are unlikely to be repeated.

[Miles]

I was thinking...would it be a good idea for Kissell to carpetbag up to the new 2nd?
The 2nd is now McCain +12 as opposed to the new 8th which is McCain +16. Ellmers is also a fairly weak incumbent.
Some of the old 8th ended up inthe new 2nd; Kissell would still have a base in parts of Fayettville and most of Hoke county.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe, how much of the current 8th is familiar territory versus the 2nd? The familiar territory provides and incumbency advantage of a few points.  He could lose that 4 points and maybe more depending on how much fewer familiar territory he has in the 2nd verus the 8th.

[Miles]

Here's the old 8th compared to the new 2nd. The purple is what they have in common.

Kissell's Fayetteville hand was divided between the new 2nd and 4th. Other than that, he'd pretty much just have Hoke County.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

He is probably better off in the 8th.

[Miles]

Its a wash; the 2nd is ostensibly less Republican, but he would have at least a nominal boost if he ran as the incumbent in the 8th. He better hope he gets Vern Robinson if he stays in the 8th.

[minionofmidas]

Well, either Kissell of McIntyre will have to "carpetbag" to the 2nd (or they run against each other in the 8th primary. Or one retires.)... but it makes much more sense for McIntyre to do so.

[Miles]

McIntyre's 7th doesn't have much in common with the new 2nd either. Other than a strip of Cumberland county and another chunk to the north (the orange pieces) he doesn't have anything. McIntyre would be best off staying where he is and running in the new 7th.

[minionofmidas]

You're right (other than the "staying where he is" part, he is in the old 7th but the new 8th). I got confused. Forgot that 2nd district was not the 7nd, somehow.
Yeah. No idea how.

[nclib]

I'd actually thought of Kissell carpet-bagging to the 13th, which is less GOP than the 2nd, and no incumbent, but that probably won't work since Paul Coble (former mayor of Raleigh, Wake Co. commissioner, and nephew by marriage to Jesse Helms) will probably run there.

[krazen1211]

http://www.wcti12.com/news/29657054/detail.html

Precleared.

[Miles]

http://www.wcti12.com/news/29657054/detail.html

Precleared.

Congrats, krazen!!!

Between this and Arizona, you must be having a pretty good day!!!

[krazen1211]

And perhaps Ohio. It's like Christmas in November.

[Miles]

The Republican dominance of redistricting is just amazing this year.

Democrats have acted like idiots during this redistricting cycle; quite a contrast to the aggressive Republicans...its so frustrating for me.

[muon2]

The Republican dominance of redistricting is just amazing this year.

Democrats have acted like idiots during this redistricting cycle; quite a contrast to the aggressive Republicans...its so frustrating for me.

Come, come now. There's both IL and MD for the Ds.