The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Perry surges into second place, edging out Pawlenty.  Romney and Bachmann make big gains.  Palin is at an all time low.

Up: Romney, Huntsman, Bachmann
Down: Pawlenty, Christie

Romney 33.7
Perry 14.0
Pawlenty 13.5
Huntsman 12.1
Bachmann 8.2
Palin 4.5
Cain 3.4
Paul 2.2
Giuliani 1.9
Gingrich 1.5
Ryan 1.5
Christie 1.4
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.5

Winning party:

Dems 59.6
GOP 38.9
other 1.5

[King]

Who would waste an entire 1.5 on "other" winning the election?

[Insula Dei]

What does it mean when Intrade doesn't list a price for a certain event? If it means the event currently can be bought at the lowest possible price, I don't see why people aren't buying predictions for the next UK election en masse. So I suppose it just means the event is a 'coming attraction'?

[Mr. Morden]

What does it mean when Intrade doesn't list a price for a certain event? If it means the event currently can be bought at the lowest possible price,

It doesn't.  Remember, every single transaction on Intrade is a contract between two people.  One person who's betting on the event happening strikes a deal on one person who's betting against it happening.....at a price they can both agree on.  There'll be no price listed for an event if no two people have yet made a transaction on that event.  That means that either no one cares about betting on it, or you just can't people betting on the event happening to agree on a price with those betting against it.

In the case of the UK election, I think it's either that it's a brand new market, or else there's just general apathy.  There are a huge number of other betting sites for UK politics, and people interested in betting on it will probably go with them:

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election

Intrade just happens to be popular / high profile for those betting on US politics.

[Mr. Morden]

And now Huntsman is up to 3rd place, and Pawlenty is in 4th place for the first time since February (when Palin was 2nd and Daniels was 3rd):

Romney 34.1
Perry 13.8
Huntsman 13.0
Pawlenty 12.8
Bachmann 8.2
Palin 4.5
Cain 3.2
Paul 2.2
Giuliani 1.9
Ryan 1.7
Christie 1.6
Gingrich 1.5
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Palin to run up to 1:3 on your money .. worth a short? thoughts from the residents?

I definitely think the probability that she runs is less than 75%, so if I'm betting on that market, I would be shorting.  But obviously, it's risky.  Up to you whether you think it's worth it.

Anyone taking my advice at that time would have made a killing, as Palin to run is down to 28.5. 

[Bull Moose Base]

Rick Perry, undecided about a run, is now almost double Pawlenty.  Been eating him alive today.  I agree with the basic idea that Perry directly infringes on Pawlenty's path.

[Mr. Morden]

Perry is on fire.  Paul passes Cain.

Up: Perry
Down: Romney, Huntsman, Pawlenty, Bachmann

Romney 32.1
Perry 19.9
Huntsman 10.6
Pawlenty 10.0
Bachmann 7.0
Palin 4.5
Paul 2.7
Cain 2.4
Christie 1.6
Giuliani 1.6
Gingrich 1.3
Ryan 1.2
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.6
Johnson 0.5

[Yelnoc]

He's probably buying shares of himself.

[Sam Spade]

One of the reasons why this board has almost zero interest to me at this point in the game is because open party nominations are rather predictable.  Typically, only two candidates ever stand reasonable odds (<5%) to win the nomination, and maybe one or two other candidates have any other chance (>5%) whatsoever.  I think only one or two open party nominations in the modern era (post-1968) fall outside this paradigm.

Once we reach December or so, this will all become painfully clear at some "moment of clarity" if you keep your ear to the ground.  I will post then here with my call.  Until then, have fun folks.

Just as a final FYI, I already have a sneaking suspicion who the two possibilities are.  But I'm far from certain.

</classic Sam Spade-style post>

Becoming clearer by the day - the polls are giving you the answer, folks.

Anyway, I'll post this for when I return more seriously in 3-4 months time, probably...

Some observations, as of today, for the betting crowd.  I would not short anything below 10 to any point below 5, as it is a waste of time.

Romney 32.1 - I think you have to short Romney above 40 (target 30) and go long below 20 (target 30).  You can't bet with him otherwise until we know what Palin is doing.  If Palin does not run, you go long because if Perry does not run, he'll shoot the moon; otherwise, he'll stay the same.  If Palin runs, you reevaluate.
Perry 19.9 - Right now, you go short Perry, even if there's pain.  And there are many reasons why - first and foremost remember that Perry and Palin are long-time allies.  I can't see Perry running if he has any doubt that Palin will, as her candidacy inevitably damages his chances by a lot (and vice versa) in favor of the Mormon.  That means Palin's announcement almost assuredly occurs before Perry  (watch I'll be wrong, but if he announces, Palin will not run - therefore short to zero, but right now not worth shorting).  That means, for now, you short Perry and wait.  If Palin says no, then you reevaluate, and probably put longs on Perry and Romney (as a pair trade).  You see, Perry is probably the smartest political operator out there in the Republican party, bar none.  He's placing people in Iowa and poaching people to be prepared should Palin not run, so that he can play anti-Romney.  But he's not going to run unless that weight is lifted.  And even then he might not run.
Huntsman 10.6 - No longs ever.  Short above 10 to 5.
Pawlenty 10.0 - Short above 10 to 5.  Spec long would be advisable at 5.
Bachmann 7.0 - See Pawlenty.
Palin 4.5 - At this point, you have to go long and hold, because the potential gain (quite large - moreso than any other candidate in the short term) is getting pretty good at these prices.  Pair trade with Perry (short).  But it might hurt for a while, and you might get even better prices.
Paul 2.7 - No longs ever.
Cain 2.4 - Ditto
Christie 1.6 - Ditto
Giuliani 1.6 - Ditto
Gingrich 1.3 - Might be worth a spec long.  But only to 3-5 as target.
Ryan 1.2 - No longs ever.
Santorum 0.7 - See Gingrich, except to 2-3.
Pataki 0.6 - No longs ever.
Johnson 0.5 - Ditto.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Romney 32.1 - I think you have to short Romney above 40 (target 30) and go long below 20 (target 30).  You can't bet with him otherwise until we know what Palin is doing.  If Palin does not run, you go long because if Perry does not run, he'll shoot the moon; otherwise, he'll stay the same.  If Palin runs, you reevaluate.

Dangerous advice. Never short a stock at 40 when it's heading to 100 long term.

[© tweed]

Perry looks like a bit of a bubble... remember Edwards flirted with 20 at some point in 2007 and Gore had his days upon months in the mid-teens way later than should have been.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney surges and Perry drops.  Bachmann also makes big gains, and actually passes both Huntsman and Pawlenty (barely) for 3rd place.

Up: Romney, Bachmann
Down: Perry, Huntsman

Romney 36.0
Perry 15.4
Bachmann 9.8
Pawlenty 9.6
Huntsman 9.5
Palin 4.5
Cain 2.2
Paul 2.0
Giuliani 1.6
Christie 1.4
Ryan 0.9
Gingrich 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.5

winning party:

Dems 57.7
GOP 40.9
other 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Huntsman back up to 3rd place, and Gingrich has a dead cat bounce.

Up: Perry, Gingrich
Down: Pawlenty

GOP nominee

Romney 36.1
Perry 17.0
Huntsman 9.4
Bachmann 9.1
Pawlenty 8.5
Palin 5.3
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.0
Gingrich 2.0
Cain 1.9
Giuliani 1.8
Ryan 1.2
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.4

Dem. nominee

Obama 93.9
Clinton 3.0
Biden 1.6

Dem. VP nominee

Biden 80.0
Clinton 7.0

[Tender Branson]

I think that will change after the Iowa Poll today.

Bachmann must be rated much higher and Huntsman, Perry and Pawlenty must be rated lower.

[The Mikado]

Huntsman back up to 3rd place, and Gingrich has a dead cat bounce.

Up: Perry, Gingrich
Down: Pawlenty

GOP nominee

Romney 36.1
Perry 17.0
Huntsman 9.4
Bachmann 9.1
Pawlenty 8.5
Palin 5.3
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.0
Gingrich 2.0
Cain 1.9
Giuliani 1.8
Ryan 1.2
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.4

I still say that Huntsman is priced too high.

Also, everyone from Ron Paul down should be at 0, not at 2.x or 1.x.  Why would you even bother betting on a Newt Gingrich or a (chuckle) Giuliani?

[Sam Spade]

Romney 32.1 - I think you have to short Romney above 40 (target 30) and go long below 20 (target 30).  You can't bet with him otherwise until we know what Palin is doing.  If Palin does not run, you go long because if Perry does not run, he'll shoot the moon; otherwise, he'll stay the same.  If Palin runs, you reevaluate.

Dangerous advice. Never short a stock at 40 when it's heading to 100 long term.

Well, first, just because something is heading to 100 long-term, doesn't mean you can't short at 40 and make good bank, depending on the technicals.  Basic investing there.

Second, if you actually read my post above, you'll note that its time value is limited (i.e. is not long-term).  So the idea that he may go to 100 long-term is not really within my scope.

Third, as to the inevitability of Romney, I cannot agree.  The Iowa poll today gives me a lot of reasons to conclude he is probably doomed there, which means he has to win NH and strongly, and then probably take SC to avoid a long primary process and possible defeat.

I do think that he is one of the few (3-4) candidates who can win the nomination, and is probably one of the "big two" I talk about in a earlier post describing the "candidates who can win" phenomenon.  But there is a lot of time left.

[Mr. Morden]

Bachmann surges into 2nd place, edging out Perry.

Up: Bachmann
Down: Romney, Perry, Huntsman

GOP nomination

Romney 33.9
Bachmann 13.8
Perry 13.0
Pawlenty 8.4
Huntsman 8.0
Palin 5.4
Paul 2.4
Cain 1.9
Giuliani 1.9
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Ryan 1.0
Pataki 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.5

Winning individual

Obama 56.0
Romney 15.6
Perry 6.5
Huntsman 4.9
Bachmann 4.0
Pawlenty 3.7
Palin 3.0
Paul 1.8
Cain 1.4
Gingrich 1.2
Clinton 1.0
Biden 0.7

[© tweed]

Iowa and NH (guess which are which)


Bachmann 47.0
Romney 12.9
Perry 12.0
Pawlenty 7.0
(other) 5.0
Paul 4.5
Palin 3.9
Cain 1.5
Huntsman 0.7
Gingrich 0.7
Santorum 0.6


Romney 60.0
Huntsman 15.1
(other) 7.9
Perry 7.5
Bachmann 6.9
Pawlenty 3.0
Palin 2.0
Santorum, Gingrich, Cain no bids
Paul with a 3.0 bid but no transactions

[© tweed]

shorting Bachmann in Iowa seems like the best bet agreed?  or reverse-shorting (buying Romney, Perry, Pawlenty, Palin, and Huntsman is 'cheaper' as you're not paying for Paul, Cain, Gingrich)

[Mr. Morden]

Ames straw poll

Bachmann 58.8
Paul 20.0
other (essentially Cain + Perry) 8.0
Pawlenty 5.0
Romney 4.3
Palin 3.0
Christie 0.6
Huntsman 0.6

Is it better to short Bachmann in the caucuses or the straw poll?  Or is she really >50% chance to win the straw poll?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Ames straw poll

Bachmann 58.8
Paul 20.0
other (essentially Cain + Perry) 8.0
Pawlenty 5.0
Romney 4.3
Palin 3.0
Christie 0.6
Huntsman 0.6

Is it better to short Bachmann in the caucuses or the straw poll?  Or is she really >50% chance to win the straw poll?

Better to short Bachmann in the straw poll, at least. I seriously doubt she is going to win it.

[© tweed]

the straw poll has a screwy history (Robertson '87).  there's no approaching-objective way to predict it so I wouldn't want my money wrapped up in it.

[The Mikado]

When you have a "contest" that entails, what, 2k-3k people, every vote seriously matters and it doesn't take that many to produce some screwy results.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin back in the top 5.

Up: Bachmann, Perry, Palin
Down: Huntsman

Romney 34.0
Bachmann 15.6
Perry 15.4
Pawlenty 8.7
Palin 7.1
Huntsman 6.6
Paul 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.7
Giuliani 1.7
Cain 1.5
Ryan 1.1
McCotter 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Pataki 0.5

Four years ago at this time, just after McCain's campaign imploded:

Democrats
Clinton 45.7
Obama 34.6
Gore 9.2
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 2.3
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.6
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 36.0
Thompson 35.5
Romney 18.6
McCain 4.6
Paul 3.3
Gingrich 2.4
Huckabee 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Rice 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2