MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I think it's gonna end up being:

GG - 49%
RQ - 46%
MW - 5%

[KingSweden]

I think it's gonna end up being:

GG - 49%
RQ - 46%
MW - 5%

Yep. I think so.

[MT Treasurer]

Is there a reason why Quist is collapsing on PredictIt?

[windjammer]

Is there a reason why Quist is collapsing on PredictIt?

People realizing GG's aggressive behaviour won't kill his campaign?

[Hindsight was 2020]

The knife's are out for GG within the party an they are mad in particular that should he win he is going to be vulnerable in 2018 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/25/us/montana-special-election.html?_r=0

[Hydera]

Is there a reason why Quist is collapsing on PredictIt?

2/3rds of the vote which is early vote is already in.  

And the incident happened to late for maximum impact. Theres going to be many voters that won't even know gianforte body slammed a reporter.

For most scandals to have maximum impact you need minimum of 5 days to one week(the republican whore comment in 2006 caused a +5D lead to become +1R on election day) to get most voters to notice it.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Does predictit disaggregate the cash flows so we know how many people are actually betting on each side and not just how much money is being bet on either side?

[Beet]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

[GlobeSoc]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Cool it, the vote isn't even in and you're overreacting with a blazing hot take.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is a swing state for non presidential elections. They've elected Tester, Bullock, Baucus, Schweitzer, etc. Trump's 20 point win is meaningless in terms of helpfulness to forecast this race.

[Beet]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is a swing state for non presidential elections. They've elected Tester, Bullock, Baucus, Schweitzer, etc. Trump's 20 point win is meaningless in terms of helpfulness to forecast this race.

All those people were first elected before the rise of right wing populism.

[This account no longer in use.]

This thread is already bad enough without the Beetposting.

[ApatheticAustrian]

recently i made a thread about sinclair's right-wing-agenda and was questioned if they got any influence at all.

wellllll....




Sinclair-owned Montana TV station won't air recording of GOP candidate's attack on journalist


https://twitter.com/mlcalderone/status/867874317136220160
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/sinclair-montana-station-greg-gianforte_us_59274756e4b06f6080531dc1


Fox contributor: Ben Jacobs "was not doing a fair story" and "got a little bit of Montana justice"
https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/867861764418945024

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Regardless of what happens tonight, even if Gianforte wins, the GOP should be concerned that this race was ever as close as it was.

[Virginiá]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is definitely open to Democrats in state and federal offices under the right circumstances. Have you even seen a chart of MT's political party power?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Montana

Look how blue that is. The legislature is generally reliably Republican but state executive and federal offices have been as Democratic as Republican, and if you look at the Senate seats, Democrats have actually controlled those far longer than Republicans for the past century.

You could be right that maybe Quist specifically was never going to win, but MT is not a dead-end for Democrats.

[Classic Conservative]

Regardless of what happens tonight, even if Gianforte wins, the GOP should be concerned that this race was ever as close as it was.

If this was Wyoming than we should be very concerned but Montana has a large history of electing Democrats so we really shouldn't.

[This account no longer in use.]

Regardless of what happens tonight, even if Gianforte wins, the GOP should be concerned that this race was ever as close as it was.

If this was Wyoming than we should be very concerned but Montana has a large history of electing Democrats so we really shouldn't.

True. Then again, the fact is that if Gianforte wins, he'll probably be one of the first Republicans to fall in 2018.

[Hydera]

Regardless of what happens tonight, even if Gianforte wins, the GOP should be concerned that this race was ever as close as it was.

Its still embarrassing tbh for the dems if they lose considering they flipped Illinois senate seat in 2010 despite it going 70% for Obama in 2004 and also Obama's home state.   While the dems lose a Montana seat that was 60% for the GOP candidate in last year's house election.

[Beet]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is definitely open to Democrats in state and federal offices under the right circumstances. Have you even seen a chart of MT's political party power?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Montana

Look how blue that is. The legislature is generally reliably Republican but state executive and federal offices have been as Democratic as Republican, and if you look at the Senate seats, Democrats have actually controlled those far longer than Republicans for the past century.

You could be right that maybe Quist specifically was never going to win, but MT is not a dead-end for Democrats.

Same reply as to wulfric. I agree that MT was open to Democrats pre 2015, and especially pre 2009, but it's changed. Bullock was lucky to squeak by as an incumbent. I expect the next several years to be very bad for MT Democrats.

[Holmes]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Did Gianforte kill Seth Rich?

[OneJ]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is a swing state for non presidential elections. They've elected Tester, Bullock, Baucus, Schweitzer, etc. Trump's 20 point win is meaningless in terms of helpfulness to forecast this race.

All those people were first elected before the rise of right wing populism.

That doesn't mean anything. Trump is crashing and burning and is ultimately dragging other Republicans down with him. Montana is an elastic swing state downballot (and on occasion on the presidential level).

Saying things like that is what would keep the Democrats down from taking the House (and maybe the Senate) away from the Republicans.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Does predictit disaggregate the cash flows so we know how many people are actually betting on each side and not just how much money is being bet on either side?

So I'm guessing they don't?

[Virginiá]

Same reply as to wulfric. I agree that MT was open to Democrats pre 2015, and especially pre 2009, but it's changed. Bullock was lucky to squeak by as an incumbent. I expect the next several years to be very bad for MT Democrats.

Then there is no way to debate you on it anyway, though, you shouldn't be too confident with such limited data/election results to back you up.

[Beet]

Same reply as to wulfric. I agree that MT was open to Democrats pre 2015, and especially pre 2009, but it's changed. Bullock was lucky to squeak by as an incumbent. I expect the next several years to be very bad for MT Democrats.

Then there is no way to debate you on it anyway, though, you shouldn't be too confident with such limited data/election results to back you up.

The evidence is Hillary's 20 point loss in the state, and Bullocks narrow win as an incumbent, plus the non Google consumer survey polls.

[kyc0705]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

...do you just talk to hear the sound of your own voice?