The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_503.pdf

If he were at this level of support six months before the general election as an incumbent, he would win. 44% is the threshold in approval rating at which the average incumbent has a 50% chance of winning re-election, and most states in either orange (ahead and above 44%), yellow (tied above 44%), or even aqua (behind but over 44%) he would win re-election.  I'm not so sure about North Carolina  (about an even chance), let alone Georgia, South Carolina, or Texas (neither of whose most recent polls make sense). He would win every state in any shade of red, Colorado and Pennsylvania, and at least one of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Anyone who thinks that he would lose the District of Columbia,  Delaware, New Mexico, or Washington state is bonkers.

Below 44% people recognize that voting for the politician in question was a mistake. Above 44% people need compelling reason to vote someone out. At 44% one has undeniable doubt of whether voting for the incumbent was a mistake, and it could go either way. 

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

The real issue, of course, is whether the President is hurting the chances of the Democratic nominee who follows him. He isn't doing so.

[pbrower2a]

Kean University, New Jersey 

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http://chpp.kean.edu/poll/nj-dems-love-clinton-everybody-loves-christie

If he were at this level of support six months before the general election as an incumbent, he would win. 44% is the threshold in approval rating at which the average incumbent has a 50% chance of winning re-election, and most states in either orange (ahead and above 44%), yellow (tied above 44%), or even aqua (behind but over 44%) he would win re-election.  I'm not so sure about North Carolina  (about an even chance), let alone Georgia, South Carolina, or Texas (neither of whose most recent polls make sense). He would win every state in any shade of red, Colorado and Pennsylvania, and at least one of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Anyone who thinks that he would lose the District of Columbia,  Delaware, New Mexico, or Washington state is bonkers.

Below 44% people recognize that voting for the politician in question was a mistake. Above 44% people need compelling reason to vote someone out. At 44% one has undeniable doubt of whether voting for the incumbent was a mistake, and it could go either way. 

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

The President isn't the chances of a Democratic successor as the nominee of 2016.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why is NJ orange? Shouldn't it be medium red?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Why is NJ orange? Shouldn't it be medium red?

48-41. Under 50%, but positive.

Might want to re-check your math, man.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Why is NJ orange? Shouldn't it be medium red?

48-41. Under 50%, but positive.

Might want to re-check your math, man.

Yeah, it's 33% strongly approve and 25% somewhat approve. His approval is at 58-41-2.

[pbrower2a]

Kean University, New Jersey  

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http://chpp.kean.edu/poll/nj-dems-love-clinton-everybody-loves-christie

Corrected. Thank you. Dirty glasses strike again.

If he were at this level of support six months before the general election as an incumbent, he would win. 44% is the threshold in approval rating at which the average incumbent has a 50% chance of winning re-election, and most states in either orange (ahead and above 44%), yellow (tied above 44%), or even aqua (behind but over 44%) he would win re-election.  I'm not so sure about North Carolina  (about an even chance), let alone Georgia, South Carolina, or Texas (neither of whose most recent polls make sense). He would win every state in any shade of red, Colorado and Pennsylvania, and at least one of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Anyone who thinks that he would lose the District of Columbia,  Delaware, New Mexico, or Washington state is bonkers.

Below 44% people recognize that voting for the politician in question was a mistake. Above 44% people need compelling reason to vote someone out. At 44% one has undeniable doubt of whether voting for the incumbent was a mistake, and it could go either way.  

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

The President isn't hurting the chances of a Democratic successor as the nominee of 2016.

[pbrower2a]

NBC/Marist -- Virginia and New Jersey:

NBC News/Marist Poll: Virginia; May 2013; Page 3
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
REGISTERED VOTERS

May 2013
Approve  51
Disapprove 45
Unsure 4
Total 100

Close to the electoral results in Virginia in 2012.


Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
REGISTERED VOTERS

May 2013

Approve 56
Disapprove 38
Unsure 5
Total 100


http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC_News_Marist_Poll_Virginia.pdf

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
REGISTERED VOTERS

May 2013

Approve 56
Disapprove 38
Unsure 5
Total 100

Concurs with the poll by Kean University.


If he were at this level of support six months before the general election as an incumbent, he would win. 44% is the threshold in approval rating at which the average incumbent has a 50% chance of winning re-election, and most states in either orange (ahead and above 44%), yellow (tied above 44%), or even aqua (behind but over 44%) he would win re-election.  I'm not so sure about North Carolina  (about an even chance), let alone Georgia, South Carolina, or Texas (neither of whose most recent polls make sense). He would win every state in any shade of red, Colorado and Pennsylvania, and at least one of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Anyone who thinks that he would lose the District of Columbia,  Delaware, New Mexico, or Washington state is bonkers.

Below 44% people recognize that voting for the politician in question was a mistake. Above 44% people need compelling reason to vote someone out. At 44% one has undeniable doubt of whether voting for the incumbent was a mistake, and it could go either way.  

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

The President isn't hurting the chances of a Democratic successor as the nominee of 2016.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

My state is becoming increasingly more awesome after their flirtation with Bush in 2004. 

[pbrower2a]

Marquette University Law School (WI)

5. Approval of Obama handling his job as President

Approve  50.5

Disapprove  44.9

Don't know/refused  4.7

717 voters.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/MLSP16Toplines.pdf

Within 2% of 2012 results.



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

The President isn't hurting the chances of a Democratic successor as the nominee of 2016.

[King]

Obama's approval remains steady at 51-42 end week for Gallup.

I'm actually kind of shocked.  It appears nobody cares about or, at least, blames him for the scandals.

[Tender Branson]

Obama's approval remains steady at 51-42 end week for Gallup.

I'm actually kind of shocked.  It appears nobody cares about or, at least, blames him for the scandals.

Mostly because this is Solyndra material. Americans perceive these "scandals" als part of politics and move on. No big deals.

[King]

They're a little more serious IMO.  But I think the GOP might have gotten caught crying wolf so much that bad news against the administration falls with a dull thud.

[bballrox4717]

Obama's approval remains steady at 51-42 end week for Gallup.

I'm actually kind of shocked.  It appears nobody cares about or, at least, blames him for the scandals.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/05/19/rel6a.pdf

It appears the public is taking the issues seriously but can't find a legitimate reason to blame Obama for it, according to CNN/ORC polling, which has Obama at 53/45. The only negatives for Obama in this poll is that the public disapproves of the administration's handling of Benghazi and that the majority of Americans do not believe the GOP is overreaching.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Obama's approval remains steady at 51-42 end week for Gallup.

I'm actually kind of shocked.  It appears nobody cares about or, at least, blames him for the scandals.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/05/19/rel6a.pdf

It appears the public is taking the issues seriously but can't find a legitimate reason to blame Obama for it, according to CNN/ORC polling, which has Obama at 53/45. The only negatives for Obama in this poll is that the public disapproves of the administration's handling of Benghazi and that the majority of Americans do not believe the GOP is overreaching.

Obama's approval remains steady at 51-42 end week for Gallup.

I'm actually kind of shocked.  It appears nobody cares about or, at least, blames him for the scandals.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/05/19/rel6a.pdf

It appears the public is taking the issues seriously but can't find a legitimate reason to blame Obama for it, according to CNN/ORC polling, which has Obama at 53/45. The only negatives for Obama in this poll is that the public disapproves of the administration's handling of Benghazi and that the majority of Americans do not believe the GOP is overreaching.

And they'll be changing their minds on that soon enough.

[Tender Branson]

New surveys today by Washington Post and USA Today have Obama at 51% and 53% approval:



http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obamas-rating-steady-amid-controversies-likely-buoyed-by-rising-economic-hopes/2013/05/20/5509c03e-c17f-11e2-bfdb-3886a561c1ff_story.html

...

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http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/05/20/poll-benghazi-irs-politics-blame-gop-obama/2343519

[pbrower2a]

President Barack Obama has a 50% approval rating in Minnesota to a 47% disapproval rating and 3% of voters who aren’t sure.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_52113.pdf

U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar receives impressive reviews from Minnesota voters. She enjoys an
approval rating of 61%, with only 28% disapproving of her performance and 11% unsure. Former Senator Norm Coleman is seen negatively by a narrow margin. 37% have a favorable opinion of Coleman to 39% who do not. 24% have no opinion about their former senator.

Minnesota voters support universal background checks on gun sales by pretty much the
same margin as voters in other states PPP has tested. 74% of Minnesotans support
requiring background checks on all gun sales, including at gun shows and over the internet. 24% oppose the measure, and 5% are not sure. Majorities of Democrats (95%),
Independents (71%) and Republicans (52%) support expanded background check
requirements.




60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

The President isn't hurting the chances of a Democratic successor as the nominee of 2016.




[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

PPP, North Carolina

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60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

The President isn't hurting the chances of a Democratic successor as the nominee of 2016.




[/quote]
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/

45% approval, 49% disapproval. No details, so this is preliminary.



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

The President isn't hurting the chances of a Democratic successor as the nominee of 2016.




[/quote]
[/quote]
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, PPP:

-Virginians are closely divided on Barack Obama's job performance with 49% approving of him to 48% who disapprove. Our second look at Tim Kaine's approval rating as a Senator finds him standing at 44/38.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/05/warner-safe-for-reelection.html#more

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

The President isn't hurting the chances of a Democratic successor as the nominee of 2016.

[pbrower2a]

May 30-June 2, 2013

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_605.pdf

No change. On other races, Democrats have leads over either the incumbent Governor and over any imaginable Republican nominee for the Senate. Michigan is fool's gold for Republicans in 2014 and 2016.

Quinnipiac has a poll on Pennsylvania, but nothing on political races -- more on the Paterno/Sandusky scandal that looks bad for the Governor. There could be others from Q.

Addendum: Presidential approval.disapproval is still tied at 48%.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

The President isn't hurting the chances of a Democratic successor as the nominee of 2016.

[pbrower2a]

(Massachusetts -- University of Massachusetts at Amherst/YouGov

http://polsci.umass.edu/uploads/sites/main/Files/UMass%20Poll%20May%206%202013%20Release.pdf


Approval
ratings

What is your opinion of the following individuals?
Strongly Approve  ++
Somewhat  Approve +
Somewhat  Disapprove  -
Strongly  Disapprove   --
Not sure        ?

                                          ++      +         -     --        ?
President Barack Obama   19%   31%  13% 36%   2%
Governor Deval Patrick      19%   29%  15% 32%   6%
Senator Elizabeth Warren 31%   22%    8% 28% 11%
U.S. Congress                      2%  10%   29% 54%   5%


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

The President isn't hurting the chances of a Democratic successor as the nominee of 2016.





[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Colorado.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

43-54

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1908

Democrats are suddenly not doing so well in Colorado.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[Torie]

Quinnipiac, Colorado.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

43-54

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1908

Democrats are suddenly not doing so well in Colorado.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

Neither are Biden and Hillary. In fact per Quinnipac, they are getting trounced. What happened? 

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Quinnipiac, Colorado.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

43-54

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1908

Democrats are suddenly not doing so well in Colorado.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

Neither are Biden and Hillary. In fact per Quinnipac, they are getting trounced. What happened? 

Per risk of sounding like circa-2012 Republican, I think this might just be a bad poll. We get those sometimes.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Colorado.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

43-54

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1908

Democrats are suddenly not doing so well in Colorado.

(Map shown in my post)

Neither are Biden and Hillary. In fact per Quinnipac, they are getting trounced. What happened? 

Governor Hickenlooper said that he would reprieve any offender currently on Colorado's Death Row. Such has caused his approval ratings to plummet as if it were a scandal.  

But unlike a scandal it usually it blows over fast.  Many people believe that capital punishment is indulgence toward criminals. It has no deterrent value to murder or even the crimes that, should a murder occur during their commission might lead to an execution.    

As shown below, executions do not speed their way through in Colorado. There has been but one execution in the state, and that of someone who dropped all appeals upon deciding that life was no longer worth living. Otherwise:

Robert Harlan, 38, convicted in 1995 of murdering casino waitress Rhonda Maloney and attempting to murder a woman coming to her aid.

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Guessing that the list of condemned is in chronological order of conviction, the death penalty is applied rarely and  an execution takes years to happen.