Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[lilTommy]

Big change in Scarborough. The Commission reverts to its first Proposal.

As in the first Proposal, the new Scarborough riding is Scarborough East, but renamed SCARBOROUGH—ROUGE PARK. The successor to Scarborough--Rouge River is Scarborough North.  Scarborough Agincourt is largely unchanged, as is Scarborough Centre, Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough Guildwood. Scarborough--Rouge Park is the 43% of Pickering--Scarborough East that is within Scarborough, plus some leftover parts of Scarborough--Rouge River and Scarborough--Guildwood.

Scarborough--Rouge Park is notionally Liberal, in a three-way race. Scarborough—Guildwood is only marginally Liberal, and might become open if its MP gambles on the new Scarborough--Rouge Park. Scarborough—Agincourt remains Liberal. Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough North remain NDP. Scarborough Centre remains marginally Conservative in a tight three-way race.    
 

Ugh, They Kept University-Rosedale. Terrible decision, just terrible
Spadina- Fort York, should be called Trinity-Fort York; They basically changed Scarborough but nothing else in TO? am i wrong.

[MaxQue]

Big change in Scarborough. The Commission reverts to its first Proposal.

As in the first Proposal, the new Scarborough riding is Scarborough East, but renamed SCARBOROUGH—ROUGE PARK. The successor to Scarborough--Rouge River is Scarborough North.  Scarborough Agincourt is largely unchanged, as is Scarborough Centre, Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough Guildwood. Scarborough--Rouge Park is the 43% of Pickering--Scarborough East that is within Scarborough, plus some leftover parts of Scarborough--Rouge River and Scarborough--Guildwood.

Scarborough--Rouge Park is notionally Liberal, in a three-way race. Scarborough—Guildwood is only marginally Liberal, and might become open if its MP gambles on the new Scarborough--Rouge Park. Scarborough—Agincourt remains Liberal. Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough North remain NDP. Scarborough Centre remains marginally Conservative in a tight three-way race.    
 

Ugh, They Kept University-Rosedale. Terrible decision, just terrible
Spadina- Fort York, should be called Trinity-Fort York; They basically changed Scarborough but nothing else in TO? am i wrong.

A small part of Rosedale is moved in Don Valley West.

[Wilfred Day]

The Commission says "The names of the other three urban electoral districts located within the City of Hamilton begin with the name Hamilton. The Commission believes that all four should begin in the same fashion. The electoral district of Ancaster is renamed HAMILTON WEST—ANCASTER—DUNDAS."

But the fifth electoral district located within the City of Hamilton is still named Flamborough-Glanbrook. Not Hamilton--Flamborough--Glanbrook. Why not? Because it's not "urban" even though it's entirely within the City? Are they still fighting amalgamation? Besides, a big chunk of the urban area on the southeast of Hamilton is in Flamborough--Glanbrook, along with 16,000 people in the urban south end of Flamborough. I bet it's more than half urban.

[Hatman 🍁]

Heh. Looks like my suggestion from last night for Thornhill came true. And I see they added "Oak Ridges" to the Aurora-Richmond Hill riding name like I suggested too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the name changes they made:

Oakville South -> Oakville. Good
Barrie-Oro-Springwater -> Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte. Definitely needed a change since it contains part of former Medonte Twp as well. However, the riding name may be too long. Perhaps "Barrie-Springwater-Kempenfelt" would be better?
Mississauga East-Cooksville -> Mississauga-Cooksville. Was this necessary?
Mississauga North -> Mississauga-Malton. Why not Mississauga North-Malton?
Mississauga South -> Mississauga-Lakeshore. Was this necessary? I dont think there was even a boundary change. If they're going to be using community names for the rest of Missisauga's ridings, why not change this to "Mississauga-Port Credit"?
Mississauga West-Streetsville -> Mississauga-Streetsville. OK.
Vaughan-Thornhill-Markham -> Thornhill. EXCELLENT
Aurora-Richmond Hill -> Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill. Not bad.
Scarborough East -> Scarborough-Rouge Park. What?? This riding is a monstrosity anyways.
Renfrew-Pembroke -> Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke. OK, it's the same riding boundaries, BUT this is a horrible name. Renfrew-Algonquin would be so much more cooler.
Oshawa-Durham -> Durham. OK

[Wilfred Day]

I see they added "Oak Ridges" to the Aurora-Richmond Hill riding name like I suggested too.

So, to recap:
Oak Ridges-Markham is succeeded by Markham—Stouffville.
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill is a new riding.
Markham-Unionville is succeeded by Markham—Thornhill.
"New" Markham-Unionville is a new riding.
About 20% of old Thornhill goes to Markham--Thornhill but the rest is still called Thornhill.
Richmond Hill is still called Richmond Hill after losing its north 18% to Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill.
Newmarket—Aurora is still called Newmarket—Aurora after losing its south 19% to Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill.
York-Simcoe loses 26% of the riding to new Barrie--Innisfil but is still called York-Simcoe.

No confusion here.

[Hash]

Ugh they didn't even rename the Barrhaven riding? Incompetent wankers.

[MaxQue]

Ugh they didn't even rename the Barrhaven riding? Incompetent wankers.

They were too busy insulting NDP and Liberals MPs for that.

[Wilfred Day]

Barrie-Oro-Springwater -> Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte. Definitely needed a change since it contains part of former Medonte Twp as well. However, the riding name may be too long. Perhaps "Barrie-Springwater-Kempenfelt" would be better?

So, Simcoe North is still called Simcoe North, no change, right? Well actually they lose part of Oro-Medonte to new Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte, but the name is clear: Oro-Medonte is no longer in Simcoe North. Oh, part of it still is??? Umm . . .

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh they didn't even rename the Barrhaven riding? Incompetent wankers.

Why would they? It's not just Barrhaven. Although I would have gone with "Bell-South Nepean" to match the old ward name.

[MaxQue]

Barrie-Oro-Springwater -> Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte. Definitely needed a change since it contains part of former Medonte Twp as well. However, the riding name may be too long. Perhaps "Barrie-Springwater-Kempenfelt" would be better?

So, Simcoe North is still called Simcoe North, no change, right? Well actually they lose part of Oro-Medonte to new Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte, but the name is clear: Oro-Medonte is no longer in Simcoe North. Oh, part of it still is??? Umm . . .

The eastern part of Oro-Medonte is still in Simcoe North.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I don't understand all these naming complaints. All the ridings that have been mentioned just use the names of some landmarks, municipalities, or counties that are in the riding. People will figure it out. I don't see the point of trying to decide what's "the successor" riding to what in an area like York Region where all boundaries are shifting due to fast population growth.

[Smid]

What is the status now? Has the Ontario Report been Gazetted?

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't understand all these naming complaints.

This is a political geography forum. It's what we do for fun.

[Wilfred Day]

I don't see the point of trying to decide what's "the successor" riding to what in an area like York Region where all boundaries are shifting due to fast population growth.

The point was obvious in Saskatchewan, where two sitting PC MPs instantly ran away from their successor ridings, leaving them open for the NDP.

Similar things may happen in Ontario.

For one example, the Conservative MP for Don Valley East, Joe Daniel, would logically run in new Don Valley East, where the majority of his voters go to. But it has a transposed results of Liberal by 758 votes, 2.17%. The "new" riding of Don Valley North, however, made up of the end end of Willowdale and the north end of Don Valley East, has a transposed results of Conservative by 1158 votes, 2.97%. Where will Joe Daniel run?

And what is the ethnic makeup of each of those ridings? This might be relevant when you consider that Joe Daniel is the first Canadian MP of Malayali descent, that is, from the south Indian state of Kerala. A Tanzania-born South Asian, born in Dar-es-Salaam after his parents decided to leave the comforts of their home state of Kerala to look for work in the British colony of Tanzania (although they sent their son back to India at age 10, to a missionary run school in Ooty, India, and he completed his ‘A’ levels in England).

The riding of Don Valley East has over 65 per cent first-generation immigrants. The majority of immigrants in Don Valley East are from the Chinese, Armenian and Egyptian communities. But I expect the majority in Don Valley North may be Chinese, and Conservatives in the Chinese community may already be organizing to nominate a new candidate in the "new" riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

You'd think someone of Keralan descent would be socialist.

[Wilfred Day]

You'd think someone of Keralan descent would be socialist.

You'd think someone whose family fled left-ruled Kerala, and made enough money in Tanzania to send their kid to boarding school in India and the UK, would be fiercely anti-leftist. And he was. "Even as a student in England, he was involved in politics, often the sole Tory in a sea of Labour-supporting students."
http://www.southasiamail.com/mainnews.php?id=12938

[Krago]

The riding of Don Valley East has over 65 per cent first-generation immigrants. The majority of immigrants in Don Valley East are from the Chinese, Armenian and Egyptian communities. But I expect the majority in Don Valley North may be Chinese, and Conservatives in the Chinese community may already be organizing to nominate a new candidate in the "new" riding.

Don Valley North
30% Chinese
9% South Asian
5% West Asian
4% Black
4% Korean
4% Filipino
6% Other VM
38% Non-VM

[Kevinstat]

Toronto Centre could be interesting. Probably moreso than Bourassa. But it screams "fools gold" for the NDP. Certainly would be worth really fighting for to set up for the new more NDP-friendly riding to come (as DL pointed out).

So, does Toronto Centre become more NDP-friendly under this report?

[DL]

So, does Toronto Centre become more NDP-friendly under this report?

Yes, would be an understatement - the new TC that severs everything north of Bloor makes the riding into a perfect NDP seat...not that anything is ever certain in politics.

[Wilfred Day]

So, does Toronto Centre become more NDP-friendly under this report?

Yes, would be an understatement - the new TC that severs everything north of Bloor makes the riding into a perfect NDP seat...not that anything is ever certain in politics.

Not quite perfect.

The present riding has a Liberal plurality of 6014 votes, 10.8%.

The new riding has a Liberal plurality of 1149 votes, 3.08%.

[DL]

I'm referring to the demographic makeup of the riding...it's hard to use the 2011 numbers as much of a gauge since the NDP had almost no active campaign in TC in. 2011 and a very weak, absent candidate.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm referring to the demographic makeup of the riding...it's hard to use the 2011 numbers as much of a gauge since the NDP had almost no active campaign in TC in. 2011 and a very weak, absent candidate.

Plus the Liberal candidate won't be Bob Rae

[Wilfred Day]

...it's hard to use the 2011 numbers as much of a gauge since the NDP had almost no active campaign in TC in 2011 and a very weak, absent candidate.

Who still got 30.2%. Unlike the really weak, absent "mystery candidate" in Don Valley West who got only 11.7%, almost succeeding in saving Rob Oliphant's seat. A nice fellow, but hardly as prominent as his provincial seat mate Kathleen Wynne. "Nicole Yovanoff, the NDP candidate in Don Valley West, is nowhere to be found because she’s working on a New Democrat campaign more than 1,300 kilometres away, the Toronto Star has learned. An NDP official acknowledged Friday that Yovanoff, who is the campaign manager for Tania Cameron in Kenora, was simply a sacrificial lamb."
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2011/04/27/walkom_mystery_surrounds_ndp_candidate_in_toronto.html
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2011/04/29/ndp_explains_mystery_candidate.html

What did the Liberals give the NDP in return for running an invisible candidate in Don Valley West?

[lilTommy]

I'm referring to the demographic makeup of the riding...it's hard to use the 2011 numbers as much of a gauge since the NDP had almost no active campaign in TC in. 2011 and a very weak, absent candidate.

Plus the Liberal candidate won't be Bob Rae

All you have to do is see the TC NDP now; they have a "star" candidate, and had very big candidate nomination & membership drive and a very active riding association (i'm on their FB page, they are constantly organizing to be at local events, organizing canvasses, etc) They should do better then 30% in the by-election but it will be hard to win, It feels like a build up to the new boundaries.
Freeland has been getting "bad" press lately also for her rather opulent digs in Summerhill, that won't win her votes south of Bloor (no effect in Cabbagetown i bet though)