Post your AZ & MI predictions here

[Tender Branson]

ARIZONA:

41% Romney
32% Santorum
14% Gingrich
12% Paul
  1% Others

MICHIGAN:

38% Santorum
36% Romney
14% Paul
10% Gingrich
  2% Others/Uncommitted

[Tender Branson]

Did some research about turnout in AZ:

Ahead of the 2008 primary, there were 1,042,294 registered active Republicans in the state and 142,455 inactive ones (who can also vote in the primary), for a total of 1,184,749 voters.

http://www.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2008-01-18.pdf

This year, there are 1,124,726 registered active Republicans in the state and 104,614 inactive ones (who can also vote in the primary), for a total of 1,229,340 voters.

...

In 2008, GOP turnout was 541,767 or 52% of all active registered GOP voters.

http://www.azsos.gov/election/2008/PPE/Canvass2008PPE.pdf

...

Going with a projected decrease in turnout, like we saw in Florida, which had a 41.25% turnout, I would estimate turnout in AZ to be about 465.000

If turnout is similar to 2008 levels (52%), then turnout would be 585.000

I think it will be somewhere in between (ca. 47%) and therefore my turnout prediction for AZ is:

530.000 voters

[Tender Branson]

As for total registration, it is slightly up compared with early 2008:

2008 primary (ACTIVE): 2,713,070 (38.4% GOP, 27.6% IND, 33.4% DEM)
2012 primary (ACTIVE): 3,134,234 (35.9% GOP, 32.9% IND, 30.4% DEM)

2008 primary (INACTIVE): 442,886 (32.2% GOP, 35.8% IND, 31.0% DEM)
2012 primary (INACTIVE): 422,994 (24.7% GOP, 41.0% IND, 32.8% DEM)

2008 primary (TOTAL): 3,155,956 (37.5% GOP, 28.7% IND, 33.0% DEM)
2012 primary (TOTAL): 3,557,228 (34.6% GOP, 33.9% IND, 30.7% DEM)

...

As you can see, the GOP percentage among active voters dropped by 2.5% in the last 4 years and the DEM percentage dropped by 3%.

But because the share of GOP voters among INACTIVE dropped by far more, while Democrats and Indys gained, the overall GOP loss was 2.9%, while the loss among DEMs was just 2.3%.

Independents even gained 5.2% in the last 4 years !

[Tender Branson]

The changing voter registration statistics of Arizona are really interesting:

Every presidential cycle, Arizona adds about 400.000 voters to its rolls.

That would mean that by November 2012, about 3.870.000 voters will be registered (3.45 million active and 420K inactive).

In 2000, the number was 2.17 million active plus 480K inactive for a total of 2.65 million voters.

...

And the changes in party registration between Nov. 2000 and the projected Nov. 2012 numbers are even more interesting:

Nov. 2000 (active): 43% GOP, 38% DEM, 18% IND
Nov. 2012 (active): 35% GOP, 30% DEM, 34% IND

[Tender Branson]

Nov. 2000 (active): 43% GOP, 38% DEM, 18% IND
Nov. 2012 (active): 35% GOP, 30% DEM, 34% IND

Just re-checked the numbers and it seems that Democrats and Republicans can usually increase their percentages by a bit between the primary numbers and the general election numbers.

So it will be more like:

36% GOP
31% DEM
32% IND
  1% OTH

on election day 2012.

Which further means if partisan GOP/DEM voters turn out in same numbers in November and about 10% vote for the other party's candidate and Independent voters split 50-50, we'd have the following basic results:

52% for the GOP candidate
48% for the DEM candidate

[Tender Branson]

Projected Michigan turnout:

963.000 voters

[Tender Branson]

Projected Michigan turnout:

963.000 voters

That's up from 08 right?

Yes, 2008 was 869,000 on the Republican side.

My prediction is just a random number out of the air. I think it could be higher than in 2008, because more Democrats and Independents could vote for Santorum this time, strategically. And in 2000, more than 1.2 million voted. Therefore somewhere in between.

AZ is more easy to predict, see what I wrote on page 1 of this thread.

[Tender Branson]

I also predict that Romney will outperform Santorum by 30.000 to 50.000 votes by the end of the day in MI & AZ combined. But most likely by about 40.000:

MI: 963.000 turnout (39% Santorum, 376K votes - 35% Romney, 337K votes - Santorum by 39K)

AZ: 530.000 turnout (28% Santorum, 148K votes - 43% Romney, 228K votes - Romney by 80K)

[Tender Branson]

And another one of my predictions: There's a good chance that Santorum will overtake Gingrich today in terms of total votes in primaries and caucuses so far. My estimated numbers incl. MI & AZ are:

1,75 Mio. votes (39%) Romney
1,10 Mio. votes (24%) Santorum
1,04 Mio. votes (23%) Gingrich
0,52 Mio. votes (12%) Paul
0,12 Mio. votes   (2%) Others

Total: 4,53 Mio. votes

[Tender Branson]

My turnout prediction for AZ is:

530.000 voters

Projected Michigan turnout:

963.000 voters

Looks on track ...