WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 20, 2024, 06:48:19 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin  (Read 142500 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« on: April 23, 2018, 08:13:54 PM »
Quote from: scutosaurus on April 23, 2018, 07:41:20 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 23, 2018, 07:37:49 PM
If Blankenship doesn't win the primary, Manchin needs to be triaged ASAP. No path to victory for him now. Elect Bredesen, Sinema, and Rosen and ignore WV while defending the big 4 - MT, ND, MO, IN.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2018, 06:01:42 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 24, 2018, 05:08:24 PM
Goddamnit. Fox finds Jenkins in the lead.

I'm sorry, I really am. But we're going to need to cut Joe loose if Jenkins wins the primary.



Manchin has 35% approval in this poll of GOP primary voters. If Manchin has that approval among GOP primary voters, he is well over 50% approval statewide.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2018, 08:13:01 PM »
What on earth is "cocaine Mitch" supposed to mean?
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2018, 12:31:38 PM »
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2018, 11:02:04 PM »

How much money did it cost to produce that ad? 10 dollars?
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2018, 01:41:17 PM »
Quote from: 2,868,691 on May 04, 2018, 06:50:29 AM



He sounds like someone who isn't even fluent in English. Good grief.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2018, 08:49:38 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on May 05, 2018, 08:47:37 PM
BIG

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I generally tend to doubt this kind of thing. If it's true though, lmao
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2018, 08:53:01 PM »
Quote from: DTC on May 05, 2018, 08:52:10 PM
Quote from: Mondale on May 05, 2018, 08:51:11 PM
Quote from: DTC on May 05, 2018, 08:48:23 PM
Quote from: Mondale on May 05, 2018, 08:47:37 PM
BIG

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Lmao, why the hell would he be surging? Do WV GOP voters want to ditch cocaine Mitch?

I guess VW GOP voters want to stop Mitch McConnell’s ‘China family’

Lol. I still think Blankenship will lose by about 10 points in the primary, but if he wins... have fun Joe Manchin.

If Blankenship wins the primary, WV will be triaged 15 seconds after Blankenship is called the winner.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2018, 11:19:36 PM »
Quote from: Pandaguineapig on May 05, 2018, 10:32:19 PM
These last minute panic stories are rarely correct and this one is based off of entirely anecdotal evidence from unverified sources

Pretty much all of them are.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2018, 11:28:20 AM »
Quote from: King Iear on May 06, 2018, 08:37:48 AM
Quote from: PNM on May 06, 2018, 06:54:37 AM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on May 06, 2018, 06:53:04 AM
Yeah no you're uncle is a moron if he thinks Blakenship is innocent based on the evidence of "Russiagate is fake news/buttery males"
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2018, 04:53:43 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on May 06, 2018, 04:45:59 PM
Be careful what you wish for.  I'm not at all convinced Roy Moore would have lost if it was the standard Nov. 2018 election date and there were 5 or 10 other contested races on the ballot to drive GOP turnout.  And Trump did even better in WV than in AL.   Blankenship is an awful candidate, no doubt, but is he as bad as Roy Moore?

If Manchin loses to Blankenship, of all people, he was going to lose to Morrisey or Jenkins anyway.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2018, 05:03:31 PM »
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/don-blankenship-wont-rule-out-third-party-bid-west-virginia-senate-race-2018-05-06/

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Please proceed, Mr. Blankenship.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2018, 09:09:15 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on May 06, 2018, 08:42:28 PM
Quote from: Bagel23 on May 06, 2018, 08:12:55 PM
Quote from: The Unbearable Invicibility of Hillary Clinton on May 06, 2018, 07:44:39 PM
An update of early voting totals.  Really nothing has changed in the basic pattern. 51-33-15 the partisan breakdown.  Independents can request a ballot for either party or just vote on nonpartisan issues if they so choose.  

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/ec6249aa-ab35-4574-9b28-4e47f3dded09/P18_EV_Abs_050618.pdf

Looks like just slightly over 25% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from WV 3rd when it compromises over 32% of the state's population, hopefully this trend holds down and dooms Jenkins.

What's the percentage of all statewide registered R's in WV-03, though?  That's the relevant comparison here.  It has to be under 1/3rd given how many legacy Dems there are in those counties.

Also, apparently registered Indies can vote in the GOP primary.  I would be surprised if Indies voting GOP ballots don't break substantially for Blankenship.

Some math I did quickly shows WV-03 has just under 27% of statewide registered Rs. WV-03 has 105,896 registered Republicans and there are 392,804 statewide.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2018, 10:13:22 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 08, 2018, 10:10:52 PM
-->



Manchin is favoured against Morrisey so I mean.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2018, 06:10:43 PM »
Quote from: Alabama_Indy10 on May 10, 2018, 02:47:57 PM
Quote from: KingSweden on May 10, 2018, 02:31:51 PM
Quote from: Mondale on May 10, 2018, 01:25:05 PM
Based Blankenship....the madman!



Please proceed
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #15 on: May 21, 2018, 10:31:54 AM »
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #16 on: June 18, 2018, 08:04:21 AM »

A $1500 disbursement probably isn't going to be enough to shift this race either way.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #17 on: June 20, 2018, 11:51:02 AM »


🔥🔥🔥🔥
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #18 on: July 10, 2018, 03:33:14 PM »

LOL.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #19 on: July 18, 2018, 04:52:32 PM »
Quote from: Nathan Towne on July 18, 2018, 04:14:52 PM
Quote from: tmthforu94 on July 18, 2018, 02:31:33 PM
Patrick Morrissey is a terrible candidate and will lose badly to Manchin by 15-20 points, at least!!

I am not sure how good a candidate he is yet. It is going to be a tough victory for him as West Virginia is a generally "pro-labour" State with the backlash against the Democratic party stemming from other issues; issues which Joe Manchin portrays himself as being strong on, i.e. gun rights, coal and mining e.t.c. It is certainly possible though and if Trump vocally advocates for the election of Morrissey, that will make it more difficult for Manchin to win.

He’s a bad candidate. The guy is incredibly easy to paint as a carpetbagger since he once ran for Congress in New Jersey. Carpetbagging in general is bad, but carpetbagging across state lines is worse.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #20 on: July 23, 2018, 06:45:07 PM »
BIG DON
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #21 on: July 30, 2018, 09:54:08 PM »
Quote from: Zaybay on July 30, 2018, 12:57:57 PM
Alright, so it seems that many dont think he'll join the BGs.

I ask another question, which group is he most likely to join?
Blue Dogs
New Dems
Progressives

Probably the Blue Dogs.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2018, 03:37:07 PM »
It's funny that she thinks she'll get more than 0.1% of the vote.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2018, 07:28:24 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on August 19, 2018, 07:24:33 PM
This makes me upset that we missed out on a Blankenship-Swearengin match-up. West Virginia would lose, but comedy would win.

Spice it up with a Rocky de la Fuente third party run on top of that.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #24 on: August 28, 2018, 04:08:28 PM »
Quote from: Zaybay on August 28, 2018, 03:53:07 PM
Looks like it wasnt 2018 Swearengin was aiming for....



note: her statement is in the tweet, you got to click it.

You can make the statement show up by adding “media=1” (without the quotation marks) to the [tweet] tag.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 10 queries.