Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, what about Barrie-Kempenfelt? Surely "Barrie North" is ridiculous.

I agree than "Barrie North" is a strange name. The problem with Kempenfelt is than it could describe both Barrie North and Barrie South.

I guess you're right. Barrie North-Simcoe then?

[Holmes]

I doubt it...the Tory MP for Nipissing-Timiskaming who won by just 18 votes would obviously run in the new riding of Nipissing which is now much more solidly Tory, rather than run against an NDP incumbent from Nickel Belt.

Correct. Remember, the Timiskaming area is fairly NDP (look at it provincially). The new area added to Nipissing (where my cottage is) is very Tory. It is very very WASPy. Probably one of the most Protestant parts of the province.

Yuuup. Well, I'm glad my aunt in New Liskeard till finally get an NDP MP. She's a big union-type.

[Hatman 🍁]

It would be nice for my Grandma in North Bay to get an NDP MP.  She always votes NDP, I think. Of course, that's probably not going to happen in her life time. (She's 88)

[Wilfred Day]

Ok, what about Barrie-Kempenfelt? Surely "Barrie North" is ridiculous.

I agree than "Barrie North" is a strange name. The problem with Kempenfelt is than it could describe both Barrie North and Barrie South.

I guess you're right. Barrie North-Simcoe then?

Shortest would be "Barrie-Oro."

[Wilfred Day]

the new Simcoe-Grey doesnt contain any of Grey. NC should be re-named Rideau-Carleton (or Ottawa-Carleton, Carleton or Carleton South). SG should be renamed Simcoe-Dufferin or Simcoe-Mulmur or Simcoe West-Mulmur/Dufferin.

Simcoe West-Mulmur.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, what about Barrie-Kempenfelt? Surely "Barrie North" is ridiculous.

I agree than "Barrie North" is a strange name. The problem with Kempenfelt is than it could describe both Barrie North and Barrie South.

I guess you're right. Barrie North-Simcoe then?

Shortest would be "Barrie-Oro."

Leaves out a number of places. Simcoe West-Mulmur works for the other one you mentioned though.

[adma]

For my money, the most egrigious misnaming is the proposed "Oak Ridges"--yes, it encompasses a lot of the Oak Ridges Moraine; however, IMO any riding with that name has to include the community which lent its name to said moraine.  That is, a better name for Aurora-Richmond Hill would be Aurora-Oak Ridges; and this present "Oak Ridges" should be named King-Maple, or King-Maple-Vellore, or something...

[Hatman 🍁]

For my money, the most egrigious misnaming is the proposed "Oak Ridges"--yes, it encompasses a lot of the Oak Ridges Moraine; however, IMO any riding with that name has to include the community which lent its name to said moraine.  That is, a better name for Aurora-Richmond Hill would be Aurora-Oak Ridges; and this present "Oak Ridges" should be named King-Maple, or King-Maple-Vellore, or something...

I'm sorry, but nothing tops the Nepean-Carleton and the Simcoe-Grey ridings for wrong names. Oak Ridges refers to not just the community, but the morraine. While Nepean only refers to the former city which is not in the proposed riding and Grey refers to just the county which the riding will not contain any part of.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, and clearly the riding should be named "Wonderland"

[adma]

For my money, the most egrigious misnaming is the proposed "Oak Ridges"--yes, it encompasses a lot of the Oak Ridges Moraine; however, IMO any riding with that name has to include the community which lent its name to said moraine.  That is, a better name for Aurora-Richmond Hill would be Aurora-Oak Ridges; and this present "Oak Ridges" should be named King-Maple, or King-Maple-Vellore, or something...

I'm sorry, but nothing tops the Nepean-Carleton and the Simcoe-Grey ridings for wrong names. Oak Ridges refers to not just the community, but the morraine. While Nepean only refers to the former city which is not in the proposed riding and Grey refers to just the county which the riding will not contain any part of.

Good point; sounds like they just grandfathered in the old riding names without thinking there (and I can see that being fixed pronto).  Still: properly speaking, Oak Ridges *should* contain Oak Ridges proper to make sense.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Im not defending the name. I'd call it Maple-King-Kleinberg or something.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good point; sounds like they just grandfathered in the old riding names without thinking there (and I can see that being fixed pronto).

Ah, but boundary-drawing bureaucrats do not always think like normal people. No stretch of the River Clwyd can be found in Clwyd South, and nor can any part of the Clwydian Range. It did all used to be part of the local government unit of Clwyd, but that only existed for about twenty years before it was abolished in 1996.

[Hatman 🍁]

Awful presumptious of you to call people like me 'normal'

[Wilfred Day]

It should be noted that the proposed LANARK—FRONTENAC—HASTINGS would stretch a three-hour drive from Carleton Place to Bancroft, uniting Lanark with part of Hastings for the first time since Confederation. The proposed BELLEVILLE—NAPANEE—FRONTENAC would unite Belleville with part of Frontenac for the first time since Confederation. And the proposed KAWARTHA LAKES—PORT HOPE—COBOURG would unite Lindsay with Port Hope and Cobourg for the first time since Confederation. An innovative Commission!

[Hatman 🍁]

This site shows the new 2008 and 2011  results based on the proposed ridings: http://fed2012.pollmaps.ca/

Someone's going to have to make a map!

[Linus Van Pelt]

Nice find!

So, assuming the site is correct, the SK urban results are as follows - quite swingy, really. Clearly there are proportionally more people in that eastern suburban section of Saskatoon C-U than we thought.

Regina--Lewvan: NDP 45.9 CON 43.14
Regina--Qu'Appelle: CON 53.31 NDP 38.37
Wascana: LIB 41.79 CON 35.67 NDP 20.09
Saskatoon Centre-University: NDP 44.55 CON 43.92
Saskatoon--Grasswood: CON 49.38 NDP 40.52
Saskatoon West: CON 48.30 NDP 43.12

Also of miscellaneous interest-
Esquimalt--Colwood: NDP 40.61 CON 36.97
South Cowichan--Juan de Fuca: NDP 43.13 CON 42.91
Vancouver Granville: CON 32.85 NDP 29.19 LIB 27.86 (so actually quite winnable for the NDP, considering the strategic votes in the section taken from Quadra).
Toronto Centre: NDP 37.58 LIB 37.1
St. Paul's: NDP 36.43 LIB 33.54 (!)
Don Valley East: LIB 39.14 CON 35.81.
Brampton--Gore: NDP 39.07 LIB 31.29 CON 27.27
Scarborough East: LIB 34.76 CON 31.62 NDP 30.95
Scarborough North: NDP 35.42 CON 33.38 LIB 28.80
John-Peters-Humphrey: LIB 40.61 CON 32.76 NDP 20.62


Of course overall many CON gains in the Anglo suburbs.

(edit: silly mistake in original post).

[Linus Van Pelt]

Some other ones of note -

Winnipeg North: NDP 37.06 CON 30.55 LIB 29.44 - lol
Welland--Fort Erie: CON 43.09 NDP 38.71 - tough, but not impossible for Allen under a small national swing to the NDP
South Okanagan--West Kootenay: CON 44.72 NDP 39.76 - similarly
Markham: CON 38.35 LIB 36.02
Markham--Unionville: CON 46.38 LIB 33.77 - McCallum's in tough with this combo
Avalon: CON 38.83 LIB 35.21 NDP 24.71

[Hatman 🍁]

I will have to make a map. St. Paul's doesn't look right, but I guess it takes in a lot from Trinity-Spadina. Didn't realize Vancouver Granville would be so winnable!

[DL]

St. Paul's takes a big chunk from T-S and also a chunk from Davenport and it loses all the territory east of Avenue that was an NDP dead zone.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP would be +2 in Toronto, and +1 in Peel which is awesome.

[mileslunn]

The BC numbers sure look slanted towards the Conservatives and seem to crack a number of NDP ridings.  That is not to say there aren't a number of competitive NDP ridings they can pick up, but overall I would say the map definitely gives the Conservatives a bigger advantage than under the older map.  It would be interesting to see the 2006 and 2004 numbers when the Liberals were still competitive in BC to see whether it hurts or helps them.  Off course unless the Liberals make a recovery there which is a really big if, it doesn't matter too much.  Likewise it would be interesting to see the effect on the Green Party in numbers too since despite the fact beyond Elizabeth May's riding the Greens stand almost no chance of winning anymore ridings, but still if they were to ever make a breakthrough in any province, it would probably be BC, but the chances of that are worse than the Leafs winning the stanley cup.

[Smid]

Likewise it would be interesting to see the effect on the Green Party in numbers too since despite the fact beyond Elizabeth May's riding the Greens stand almost no chance of winning anymore ridings, but still if they were to ever make a breakthrough in any province, it would probably be BC, but the chances of that are worse than the Leafs winning the stanley cup.

Much the same as looking at the 2008 estimations in the area around Portneuf-Jacques Cartier (please forgive any incorrect spelling there).

[adma]

I'm also wondering about the Liberal prognosis of Mt Pleasant--well, at least I can picture the Conservatives super-targeting it now that their vote isn't suppressed by the "unwinnable riding" psychological factor.  (And even more so in the event that the border is pushed further back from Church + Wellesley.)

[Hatman 🍁]

And will Bennett flee St. Paul's and run in Mt Pleasant? Will Rae retire?

[Smid]

And will Bennett flee St. Paul's and run in Mt Pleasant? Will Rae retire?

I was wondering that, myself - given Rae's age, that would perhaps be the most sensible solution, but you never know.

Also, who will run for the Liberals in Don Valley East? The defeated MP for DVE from prior to the 2011 election, or the defeated MP for DVW from prior to 2011, or someone else? I presume the current MP would contest Don Valley North.