KS: Orman In, Colyer to Become Governor Upon Brownback Taking Ambassadorship

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This is getting me nostalgic for 2014 Atlas.

Ah, the days of Keystone Phil, KC Dem, and Sawx.

What happened to Keystone Phil? Was he attacked by Acorn thugs when trying to vote in Philly?

[VPH]

There's a Democratic candidate forum happening rn: https://www.facebook.com/kansascitystar/videos/10155385500809094/

[Badger]

This is getting me nostalgic for 2014 Atlas.

Ah, the days of Keystone Phil, KC Dem, and Sawx.

What happened to Keystone Phil? Was he attacked by Acorn thugs when trying to vote in Philly?

One can only hope....

Actually, he's on Toomey's staff. I'm sure he was told to knock it the f$%k out re: posting here.

[Free Bird]

This is getting me nostalgic for 2014 Atlas.

Ah, the days of Keystone Phil, KC Dem, and Sawx.

What happened to Keystone Phil? Was he attacked by Acorn thugs when trying to vote in Philly?

One can only hope....

Actually, he's on Toomey's staff. I'm sure he was told to knock it the f$%k out re: posting here.

Hey, good for him.

[Sestak]

There's a Democratic candidate forum happening rn: https://www.facebook.com/kansascitystar/videos/10155385500809094/

Lol isn't the Star MO-based?

[Bidenworth2020]

Think of the beauty...



this is D+4

[Sestak]

Think of the beauty...



this is D+4

But can you make TWO blue districts in KS?

[Bidenworth2020]

Think of the beauty...



this is D+4

But can you make TWO blue districts in KS?

no, the best I could do is maybe 2 R+4s

[VPH]

State Senator Laura Kelly, a pragmatic Dem who represents a 57% Trump district including parts of Topeka and rural areas to the west, is entering the gubernatorial race as the 20th candidate (and the first female candidate).
http://cjonline.com/news/local/state-government/2017-12-14/sen-laura-kelly-entering-democratic-race-kansas-governor

I'm still all in for Svaty, but I'd prefer Kelly to Ward or Brewer.

[VPH]

State Senator Laura Kelly, a pragmatic Dem who represents a 57% Trump district including parts of Topeka and rural areas to the west, is entering the gubernatorial race as the 20th candidate (and the first female candidate).
http://cjonline.com/news/local/state-government/2017-12-14/sen-laura-kelly-entering-democratic-race-kansas-governor

I'm still all in for Svaty, but I'd prefer Kelly to Ward or Brewer.

What are the chances that two of these four pair up as running mates?

I like the idea of a Svaty/Kelly ticket or Svaty/Brewer ticket.

They each have certain strengths and won't want to fold into another bid unless fundraising is really bad. I can't see that happening, with the possible exception of Brewer. What's really up for grabs (and likely to decide the campaign) is the KC area.

Svaty's strong in rural Kansas and smaller towns. Kelly should dominate around Topeka and has Senator Lynn Rogers, who won an open Wichita GOP-Trump district by 17%, as her treasurer. Ward and Brewer are both fighting for Wichita votes and Ward's treasurer is Lee Kinch, former state chair, and prolific fundraiser.

[Former Kentuckian]

Has Orman officially entered the race?

[The Other Castro]

Kobach highly vulnerable.

https://www.fhsu.edu/docking/Kansas-Speaks/Kansas-Speaks-Report_Fall-2017-v2.pdf

Unfortunately no head-to-heads, but it seems intuitive to me that each Democrat would be leading Kobach in a one-on-one race based on these favorability numbers. Let's hope Orman doesn't  it all up!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[VPH]

Svaty with low name recognition, but his favorables are good!!

[TheSaint250]

Greg Orman has raised about $450k from out-of-state doofuses.

Damn that's pretty good so far.

[Pollster]

A Svaty/Kelly ticket wouldn't surprise me.

Big story here is Kobach's awful fundraising numbers so far.

[Pollster]

Orman's campaign website has changed from "for Senate" to "Governor"

https://ormanforkansas.com/

[YE]

Orman's campaign website has changed from "for Senate" to "Governor"

https://ormanforkansas.com/

So rather than Svaty we get this clown or Kobach. Great.

[Pollster]

Orman's campaign website has changed from "for Senate" to "Governor"

https://ormanforkansas.com/

So rather than Svaty we get this clown or Kobach. Great.

Kobach's fundraising is anemic and his unfavorability is sky-high, with no attack ads even in play yet. If the race is Svaty vs. Kobach vs. Orman, I could see Orman peeling off more Republicans this time around.

[tmthforu94]

Going to be an interesting race - from what I've heard on the ground on the Democratic side, Kelly seems to be gaining a lot of momentum and may even be the favorite at this point. Unlikely to happen, but if Orman and Kelly teamed up, I think they would beat Kobach pretty handily.

Especially after they rallied around him in 2014, I think Democrats will have a harder time choosing between Kelly/Orman than Republicans will deciding between Kobach/Orman. Kobach has a low ceiling but I would say has the highest floor by a significant margin, which makes him the favorite for now.

[publicunofficial]

Kelly taking the D nod wouldn't surprise me: Brewer's campaign is non-existent and Svaty just has too small a profile.

[henster]

Going to be an interesting race - from what I've heard on the ground on the Democratic side, Kelly seems to be gaining a lot of momentum and may even be the favorite at this point. Unlikely to happen, but if Orman and Kelly teamed up, I think they would beat Kobach pretty handily.

Especially after they rallied around him in 2014, I think Democrats will have a harder time choosing between Kelly/Orman than Republicans will deciding between Kobach/Orman. Kobach has a low ceiling but I would say has the highest floor by a significant margin, which makes him the favorite for now.

Orman did noticeably worse in his statewide run as an indy than Davis did as a Democrat. Democrats have no incentive to just fall in line behind him again.

It's clear someone is going to have to step aside or a fusion ticket because with Orman in neither the Dem nominee or him is winning. None of the Dem candidates are doing spectacular $$ wise anyways, if Orman has the resources that Dems don't have then he should the main candidate.

[IceSpear]

Going to be an interesting race - from what I've heard on the ground on the Democratic side, Kelly seems to be gaining a lot of momentum and may even be the favorite at this point. Unlikely to happen, but if Orman and Kelly teamed up, I think they would beat Kobach pretty handily.

Especially after they rallied around him in 2014, I think Democrats will have a harder time choosing between Kelly/Orman than Republicans will deciding between Kobach/Orman. Kobach has a low ceiling but I would say has the highest floor by a significant margin, which makes him the favorite for now.

Orman did noticeably worse in his statewide run as an indy than Davis did as a Democrat. Democrats have no incentive to just fall in line behind him again.

His opponent wasn't as weak as Davis' though. Brownback was toxic and destroyed the state, Roberts was just an out of touch DC Fossil. I do wonder what the margins would've been if it was Orman vs. Brownback and Davis vs. Roberts though.

[tmthforu94]

Going to be an interesting race - from what I've heard on the ground on the Democratic side, Kelly seems to be gaining a lot of momentum and may even be the favorite at this point. Unlikely to happen, but if Orman and Kelly teamed up, I think they would beat Kobach pretty handily.

Especially after they rallied around him in 2014, I think Democrats will have a harder time choosing between Kelly/Orman than Republicans will deciding between Kobach/Orman. Kobach has a low ceiling but I would say has the highest floor by a significant margin, which makes him the favorite for now.

Orman did noticeably worse in his statewide run as an indy than Davis did as a Democrat. Democrats have no incentive to just fall in line behind him again.

I disagree - Orman actually made the race competitive and forced Republicans to invest in the race - it never would have been close had Chad Taylor been their nominee. Kansas has a history of electing Democrats for Governor and Brownback was extremely unpopular, yet Davis couldn't pull it off. Republicans have a long streak of winning Senate races because at the end of the day, the majority of Kansans want Republicans in charge of the Senate control was at stake in 2014.

[TheSaint250]

Hopefully Orman doesn't  it all up gets endorsed by the Dems again!

[RogueBeaver]

Orman officially in.