German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

Is there a reason why spd has siffered in local and federal polls since last year, is it association with cdu with the grand coalition or do they have their own issues in the coalition?

The SPD bleeds voters to the AfD (especially in the East), but if there are popular incumbent Governors such as in Rheinland-Pfalz, they can hold their vote (or even increase it slightly).

[Tender Branson]

The SPIEGEL, on Angela Merkel's campaign stop yesterday in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (her home state):



"Merkel campaigns in MV: At least she didn't get booed."

"The only people in the crowd who were cheering when she spoke: tourists who wanted to take pictures with her and asylum seekers from the Middle-East who shouted that they wanted Merkel to help bring their families to Germany. The resident Germans in the crowd stood there silently as she spoke."

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/angela-merkel-im-wahlkampf-in-mecklenburg-vorpommern-a-1108430.html

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Merkel is in for a walloping in her home state next Sunday.

Excellent, if true.

[Tender Branson]

Definitely within striking distance to come in first in Mecklenburg-W Pommerania

SPD 28
AfD 23
CDU 20
Left 15
Greens 6
NPD 2
FDP 2

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/mecklenburg-vorpommern.htm

If the AfD underpolls by 5% like in Saxony-Anhalt, then yes.

Anyway, Merkel needs a solid trashing so that she can step down from her high horse.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election tomorrow:

26.4% SPD (-9.2)
25.3% AfD (+25.3)
20.7% CDU (-2.3)
12.9% Left (-5.5)
  5.6% Greens (-3.1)
  3.1% FDP (+0.3)
  1.9% NPD (-4.1)
  4.1% Others (-1.4)

Turnout: 57.6% (+6.1)

[Tender Branson]

The state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has started.

A first report about turnout will come at around 3pm.

The weather is rainy, which could be good news for turnout.

Polls close at 6pm.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 2 pm: 32.8% (w/o postal ballots). 2011: 29.8% .

Considering more people will vote by postal ballot this year than in 2011, turnout could be up 5-10% altogether at the end of the day.

[Tender Branson]

Polls close in 25 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

Some traits (exit poll by ARD): 56 per cent view the economic situation in MVP as "good", 73 per cent approve of the work of prime minister Erwin Sellering. Around three of four say, this election won't affect their personal life.

I just saw this.

Based on this, I would not be surprised if the personal popularity of the SPD-Governor would be enough to keep the SPD ~30%. Lower voter transfers from SPD to AfD could keep the AfD below 25%.

CDU should drop to 20% though.

[Tender Branson]

Any live streams?

http://www.live-stream.tv/online/fernsehen/deutsch/ard.html

http://www.live-stream.tv/online/fernsehen/deutsch/zdf.html

[Tender Branson]

Exit polls (ARD/ZDF):

30% SPD, 21-22% AfD, 19-20% CDU, 12-13% Left, 5% Greens, 3% FDP, 3% NPD, 5% Others

[Tender Branson]

Exit polls underestimated AfD support in last year's state elections, right?

They might gain a bit with the vote count, yes.

But I don't think they'll get more than 23%.

The SPD-Governor was so popular that many potential AfD-voters stuck with voting SPD in the end.

[Tender Branson]

BTW, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has one of the best state parliament buildings:

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Berlin state election tomorrow:

23.1% SPD (-5.2%)
18.3% CDU (-5.0%)
14.9% AfD (+14.9%)
14.6% Greens (-3.0%)
13.2% Left (+1.5%)
  6.2% FDP (+4.4%)
  2.1% Pirates (-6.8%)
  7.6% Others (-0.8%)

Turnout: 66.1% (+5.9%)

[Tender Branson]

Some statistics from the Berlin office of elections:

Number of eligible voters: 2.485.363 (+15.647 compared with the 2011 election)

Number of postal ballots issued: 525.364 (+81.352 compared with the 2011 election)

This, btw, is a new record of postal ballot requests for a state election in Berlin.

21.1% of all eligible voters have requested a postal ballot this year, up from 18% in 2011.

The district of Steglitz-Zehlendorf had the highest share of postal ballot requests with 28.3%, while Marzahn-Hellersdorf had the lowest with 15.9% of eligible voters.

https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2016/presse/20160916c.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact before the Berlin state election:

The German statistics office has announced that the German population has grown by 800.000 in the first 8 months to reach 83 million people, a new record high.

So, it's not just asylum seekers that are streaming into Germany - but also regular immigrants who heard Merkel's call and now come in droves.

If this pace continues, Germany's population could swell by more than 1.5% this year or by far over 1 million people.

[Tender Branson]

Is Michael Müller equally popular to some of the incumbents in recent state elections? I believe that the incumbent party has usually gained a few percentage points compared to the polls in most of these elections.

No, he's one with the lowest job approval ratings among all incumbents:

[Tender Branson]

  Tender, do you have a link to the new immigration numbers?  I'd be interested in seeing where the bulk of non-asylum seekers are coming from, and whether that's also influencing the political debate.

The 2016 numbers are only an estimate for Germany as a whole so far.

The migration numbers are only available for 2015 and in German:

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikationen/Thematisch/Bevoelkerung/Wanderungen/vorlaeufigeWanderungen5127101157004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

But on page 4 you can find an English description of the tables.

[Tender Branson]

Polls are open for the Berlin state election.

Polls close at 6pm.

[Tender Branson]

A first report about turnout until noon should come at 1:15pm

[Tender Branson]

25.1% at noon, compared to 19.1% 5 years ago.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/wahl-in-berlin/berlin-deutlich-hoehere-wahlbeteiligung-zeichnet-sich-ab-14441081.html

Adjusted for postal ballots, turnout was 9% higher at noon compared with 2011.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Berlin state election tomorrow:

23.1% SPD (-5.2%)
18.3% CDU (-5.0%)
14.9% AfD (+14.9%)
14.6% Greens (-3.0%)
13.2% Left (+1.5%)
 6.2% FDP (+4.4%)
 2.1% Pirates (-6.8%)
 7.6% Others (-0.8%)

Turnout: 66.1% (+5.9%)

...

Hmm, I nailed SPD, CDU, FDP and Pirates and probably turnout.

Underestimated Greens and Left (probably because some ex-Pirate voters switched back to the Greens) and overestimated AfD (not as many Left voters voting for them like in MVP).

[Tender Branson]

Is Michael Müller equally popular to some of the incumbents in recent state elections? I believe that the incumbent party has usually gained a few percentage points compared to the polls in most of these elections.

No, he's one with the lowest job approval ratings among all incumbents:

Woah Kretschmann. Why is he so popular anyway?

What about Seehofer?

Wasn't polled yet.

[Tender Branson]

Cool.

In the end, my prediction was within 1% for every party and turnout, except for SPD and Left.

Looks like the Greens fell a bit during the evening and the AfD gained a bit.

[Tender Branson]

Wait ... what ?

TV-judge Alexander Hold is from the Free Voters ?

You learn something new every day ...