Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: BQ 35, Con 29, NDP 23, Lib 11, Green 3
Jonquière-Alma: Con 36, NDP 30, BQ 26, Lib 5, Green 3
Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean: Con 54, BQ 28, NDP 11, Lib 5, Green 2

All by Segma Rechereche

Richmond-Arthabaska: BQ 47, Con 21, NDP 20, Lib 6, Green 6

By 'Cara Telecom'

---

Can anyone spot a pattern there? Obviously there's increased NDP support in all, but the scale is totally different and so is all else...

[Smid]

Someone doesn't know his Canadian french history!

St. Boniface is a francophone enclave in Winnipeg, and there are many old French settlements in Manitoba. One must remember, it was settled by the French (and the Metis). There is at least one French community in Alberta, and I think that's what you're seeing. Also, Northern Ontario has a lot of French pockets, and there are sizable French communities in Welland, Penetanguishene and in Essex County in Ontario.  In fact, I met a French guy yesterday on my trip to the Gatineau rally, who grew up in a French neighbourhood of Welland.

I must admit, my knowledge of Canadian history is very limited. I learn a little from my wife, read a little on here, and look up and read bits that interest me and are things that I realise that I don't know (as opposed to reading about it generally... James Wolfe and the French and Indian Wars interest me greatly - I love that era).

Thanks for clarifying some of those interesting results!

A map of bilingualism would be quite interesting, too, I suspect.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: BQ 35, Con 29, NDP 23, Lib 11, Green 3
Jonquière-Alma: Con 36, NDP 30, BQ 26, Lib 5, Green 3
Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean: Con 54, BQ 28, NDP 11, Lib 5, Green 2

All by Segma Rechereche

Richmond-Arthabaska: BQ 47, Con 21, NDP 20, Lib 6, Green 6

By 'Cara Telecom'

---

Can anyone spot a pattern there? Obviously there's increased NDP support in all, but the scale is totally different and so is all else...

These are areas the NDP wont make many gains (though Mulcair claimed some pickups in the Saguenay, I see only one). I am more interested in ridings in the Montreal area. Let's see some riding polls from the 514 and the 450.

[2952-0-0]

I just came back from a candidates debate in Kitchener Waterloo.

The Liberal, NDP, and Green candidates spent the entire time bashing the Conservative incumbent who spent the entire time regurgitating silly talking points about the unnecessary election, the socialist/separatist coalition, the IPod tax, and Strong Leader.

The Liberal definitely seemed the most statesmanlike, touting his record from when he was MP. The NDP candidate did his best but didn't quite thoughtfully answer questions. The Green candidate said things you expect the Green Party to say.

The audience was very hostile to the Conservative and loudly booed him whenever he repeated the CPC talking points.

Anyone else had those experiences?

[Holmes]

These are areas the NDP wont make many gains (though Mulcair claimed some pickups in the Saguenay, I see only one). I am more interested in ridings in the Montreal area. Let's see some riding polls from the 514 and the 450.

It's still a pretty big improvement from 2008, although anything better than 4% or 5% is a "big improvement". Still, it looks like the NDP isn't just sucking up support from the Bloc and the Liberals, the Conservatives seem to have taken a hit too, compared to 2008 anyway.

[Hatman 🍁]

I just came back from a candidates debate in Kitchener Waterloo.

The Liberal, NDP, and Green candidates spent the entire time bashing the Conservative incumbent who spent the entire time regurgitating silly talking points about the unnecessary election, the socialist/separatist coalition, the IPod tax, and Strong Leader.

The Liberal definitely seemed the most statesmanlike, touting his record from when he was MP. The NDP candidate did his best but didn't quite thoughtfully answer questions. The Green candidate said things you expect the Green Party to say.

The audience was very hostile to the Conservative and loudly booed him whenever he repeated the CPC talking points.

Anyone else had those experiences?

No, because the Torie candidates never show up to any debates.

In other news, a riding poll shows Elizabeth May winning Saanich-Gulf Islands, 45-38.

[cinyc]

These are areas the NDP wont make many gains (though Mulcair claimed some pickups in the Saguenay, I see only one). I am more interested in ridings in the Montreal area. Let's see some riding polls from the 514 and the 450.

It's still a pretty big improvement from 2008, although anything better than 4% or 5% is a "big improvement". Still, it looks like the NDP isn't just sucking up support from the Bloc and the Liberals, the Conservatives seem to have taken a hit too, compared to 2008 anyway.

The Conservatives didn't take much of a hit compared to Angus Reid's last poll, which had them at 36.

[Verily]

In other news, a riding poll shows Elizabeth May winning Saanich-Gulf Islands, 45-38.

No real surprise. Lunn has been on borrowed time for ages and ages. The left never had a candidate with enough stature to unite behind. Whatever you may think of May, she has that stature. (Also, the Greens have been spending all of their money and effort on this riding, basically ignoring the rest of Canada, a big contrast from 2008.)

[Verily]

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: BQ 35, Con 29, NDP 23, Lib 11, Green 3
Jonquière-Alma: Con 36, NDP 30, BQ 26, Lib 5, Green 3
Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean: Con 54, BQ 28, NDP 11, Lib 5, Green 2

All by Segma Rechereche

Richmond-Arthabaska: BQ 47, Con 21, NDP 20, Lib 6, Green 6

By 'Cara Telecom'

---

Can anyone spot a pattern there? Obviously there's increased NDP support in all, but the scale is totally different and so is all else...

NDP's potential for vote gains in eastern Quebec was always limited. Like Earl said, Montreal would be a lot more interesting. I could see something like the NDP unseating Duceppe with over 50% of the vote in Laurier while failing to win any seat in eastern Quebec (except maybe the Quebec riding or Jonquiere-Alma).

Of course, it may also be an indication that this is a bubble and will not be borne out in the results...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

None of these ridings had a chance of going NDP even if the NDP was sitting on 40 seats.

[Verily]

Anyone have a link to information about the Angus-Reid poll? It's not on their website that I can see, and none of the mainstream news outlets are going bonkers over the NDP polling at 30%.

[Lief 🗽]

It looks like the numbers originated from Robert Fife's twitter (http://twitter.com/#!/RobertFife); he is apparently a reporter or something for CTV, so it seems legit, I guess.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The Angus Reid poll isn't that spectacular of a gain for the NDP when it's compared to their previous poll.

Tories 35 (-1)
NDP 30 (+5)
Liberals 22 (-3)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fwiw...

NDP %'s in 2008

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: 7.8
Jonquière-Alma: 4.9
Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean: 4.7
Richmond-Arthabaska: 8.7

i.e. except for Roberval, massive increases. Nothing quite on the scale hinted at by recent poll breakdowns ('cept for Jonquière. And after what happened in 2004, who'd be surprised at anything there?), but impressive regardless.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone have a link to information about the Angus-Reid poll? It's not on their website that I can see, and none of the mainstream news outlets are going bonkers over the NDP polling at 30%.

I tried looking earlier and couldn't find anything. Might be a bizarre windup?

[Hatman 🍁]

This poll has the NDP at 27% in Ontario. Very nice.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently the breakdowns do be as follows...

BC: Con 44, NDP 30, Lib 16, Greens 10
Alberta: Con 60, NDP 21, Lib 12, Greens 6
Man/Sask: Con 50, NDP 33, Lib 16, Greens 1
Ontario: Con 37, Lib 30, NDP 27, Greens 6
Quebec: NDP 38, BQ 29, Lib 16, Con 14, Greens 2
Atlantic: Con 35, NDP 32, Lib 29, Greens 4

Out with the salt and all that.

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm assuming that NDP number in the Atlantic provinces is completely meaningless.

[2952-0-0]

Official report: http://www.4shared.com/document/UBEUyjHn/AngusReid_20110427_Politics_CA.html

[Verily]

I'm assuming that NDP number in the Atlantic provinces is completely meaningless.

NDP got not far short of that number in 2008, so it wouldn't be unrealistic (2008 was LIB 35.0; CON 29.6; NDP 26.0). In good part due to running up ridiculous margins in St. John's East and Sackville-Eastern Shore, but that will happen again. Cons are up just as much as the NDP in the Atlantic if Angus-Reid is right.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm assuming that NDP number in the Atlantic provinces is completely meaningless.

Yup, and it'll mean diddly squat in terms of gains/losses. I don't think the NDP will win the South Shore.

[cinyc]

I'm assuming that NDP number in the Atlantic provinces is completely meaningless.

NDP got not far short of that number in 2008, so it wouldn't be unrealistic (2008 was LIB 35.0; CON 29.6; NDP 26.0). In good part due to running up ridiculous margins in St. John's East and Sackville-Eastern Shore, but that will happen again. Cons are up just as much as the NDP in the Atlantic if Angus-Reid is right.

I don't trust any Atlantic Canada subsample, really.  The MoE is so high that any of the three major parties could be leading. 

There usually has been an Atlantic Canada-only poll released around now that might be somewhat reliable.

[Smid]

I've got my own little prediction sheet, similar to Teddy's (but his is much more complex and probably more accurate). Mine's very similar to the Election Calculus one in the UK - just using their simple transition model because I'm not particularly brilliant at maths.

Anyway, I subbed in the numbers from that poll (and added a smidgeon for rounding in Alberta and Quebec). Obviously it's based on a poll a week before the election and all the Margins for Error and whatnot mean it may be a fair bit off what will eventuate.

The overall numbers based on it (bearing in mind there's still a week to go and MoE is large, etc) according to my little spreadsheet work out as:

Conservative: 140 (-4)
Liberal: 52 (-24)
NDP: 91 (+55)
Bloc: 22 (-27)
Greens: 0 (+0)

Obviously there are certain elements surrounding Elizabeth May which could result in the Conservative and Greens totals changing. I also called the independents in Quebec and NS Conservative for the purposes of who probably votes for them (and therefore estimating their results - a weakness in and of itself).

[Lief 🗽]

The Angus Reid poll has Harper's approval at 36%-50%... in a normal political system he'd be headed to a landslide loss.

Clear majorities would also be dissatisfied with either a Tory minority or majority government. Though a Lib-NDP coalition is also only slightly more popular and a Lib-NDP-Bloc coalition is opposed by 60% of the country.

[Meeker]

Elections Canada is reporting a 35% increase in early voting from last year. A little more than 2 million votes have already been cast (around 12% of the total expected turnout).