UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread

[Phony Moderate]

Con - 363 (inc. speaker)

362 in that case then.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Final Adjusted prediction (Warning: going out on a major limb here, probably gonna be wrong)

Tories - 405
Labour - 167
SNP - 48
Lib Dems - 7
PC - 4
Greens - 1

Northern Ireland Seats:
DUP - 10
Sinn Fein - 4
SDLP - 3
Independent - 1

[Wells]

Hackish guess, pulling numbers out of wherever:

Conservatives - 334, 42%
Labour - 240, 40%
SNP - 42, 4%
Northern Ireland - 18 (ofc)
Lib Dems - 13, 9%
Others - 3, 4%

[MT Treasurer]

I think one of these things will happen:

1.) The polls are underestimating one party by a lot (right now I'm leaning toward Labour) and the results are a yuge surprise, regardless of who "wins".
2.) The polls are actually very accurate and Tories win comfortably, though not in a massive landslide.

Bold, I know. Right now I'm leaning toward a surprisingly good showing by Labour, so I guess that's my "prediction". Maybe I'm going to post some numbers later.

[Beet]

Conservatives - 351, 44%
Labour - 225, 35%
SNP - 45, 5%
LibDem - 6, 8%
Green - 1, 3%
Others - no idea

[Dereich]

After this campaign a Tory gain of twenty something seats sounds about right. I think if there is an error in the polls, its much more likely to be in the Conservative's favor and would be much more surprised by a hung parliament than a Tory landslide.

Conservative - 355
Labour - 216
Lib Dem - 8
SNP - 48
Others-the rest

[jaichind]

My most likely final guess for GB

CON   44.4%    348 seats
LAB    36.4%    227 seats
LIB       8.2%       3 seats
UKIP     3.4%       0 seats
Greens  1.7%       1 seats
SNP      4.2%     50 seats
PC        0.6%       3 seats

[Horus]

I still see both Labour and the Tories gaining at the expense of the LibDems and SNP. Will post final predictions later tonight.

Conservatives - 334
Labour - 242
LibDems - 2
SNP - 49
Greens - 1
UKIP - 0

[brucejoel99]

Rescinding my earlier prediction...... & the new one:

Conservatives: 379
Labour: 190
SNP: 48
Lib Dems: 9
DUP: 8
Sinn Fein: 6
Plaid Cymru: 4
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
Greens: 1
Lady Hermon: 1
Speaker: 1

Conservative majority 108

[Matty]

I haven't been following this too much.

What is the absolute bare minimum number of seats the conservatives can win for it to be considered a "success" for them?

[DavidB.]

What is the absolute bare minimum number of seats the conservatives can win for it to be considered a "success" for them?

Initially they hoped for a landslide, but it seems that's not going to happen anymore. They still hope to win seats. If they don't win a majority that's obviously a disaster for them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Conservative: 45%, 375 seats
Labour: 34%, 200 seats
LibDem: 7%, 5 seats
SNP: 4%, 50 seats
UKIP: 4%, 0 seats
Others: 6%, 20 seats

Everyone marvels at the STUNNING MAY COMEBACK even though this is a perfectly plausible outcome in light of the polls.

[Donerail]

Conservatives - 319, 41%
Labour - 256, 39%
SNP - 46, 4%
Lib Dems - 6, 7%
PC - 3, 0.5%
Greens - 1, 2%

Northern Ireland guess: 8 DUP, 5 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 independent (Hermon). UKIP gets around 4% but no seats. Eventual result is a Conservative minority government, propped up by Arlene Foster. God help us all.

[heatcharger]

Conservative: 42%, 349 seats
Labour: 35%, 222 seats
LibDem: 10%, 10 seats
SNP: 4%, 49 seats
UKIP: 4%, 0 seats
Others: 5%, 20 seats

Sadly, this might be good enough for Corbyn to survive.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Cons: 350+
Lab: 215-235
LDems: 5-11
Greens: 1
UKIP: 0

I hope Corbyn's leadership ends soon...

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

My final prediction is that May wins. That is all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

My final prediction is that May wins. That is all.

BOLD

[_]

My final prediction is that May wins. That is all.

BOLD

A TRULY STUNNING AND AWE INSPIRING ANALYSIS

[Klartext89]

Tory: 350 Seats
Labour: 218
SNP: 47
LIB: 13
GRN: 1
PC: 3

Northern Ireland
DUP: 8
SF: 5
SDLP: 3
Alliance: 1
IND: 1

Update, seems that a lot of voters came back to sanity and it will be the necessary Labour wipeout:

Tory: 380 Seats
Labour: 188
SNP: 47
LIB: 13
GRN: 1
PC: 3

Northern Ireland
DUP: 8
SF: 5
SDLP: 3
Alliance: 1
IND: 1

[Matty]

if the polls do what the polls in the US did and underestimated wwc vote, could that be good for labor?

[Tender Branson]

if the polls do what the polls in the US did and underestimated wwc vote, could that be good for labor?

WWC turnout is already accounted for with a 75% turnout (on a 1-10 likelyhood to vote scale).

It won't go much higher than that ...

If Labour does surprise today, it will be more because of a comprehensive shift towards them from all population groups - as a form of protest vote against recent security flaws (May is the incumbent PM and has "failed" to protect the British public from these attacks). Even though the attacks can certainly not be blamed on her personally, the public might still "punish" her in some way even if they don't agree with Labour - not even to mention Corbyn ...

Still, the odds for this are low.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

My final prediction is that May wins. That is all.

BOLD

I am also predicting that UKIP will collapse in support. #analysis

[Kingpoleon]

Conservatives: 40%(351)
Labour: 35%(216)
LD: 10%(14)
SNP: 4%(47)
UKIP: 3%(0)
Green: 3%(1)
Others: 5%(19)

[BigVic]

My overall prediction

CON majorty of 132

Conservatives 41.8% 391 (+60)
Labour 26.0% 182 (-50)
Lib Dems 12.8% 10 (+2)
UKIP 5.4% 0 (-1)
SNP 3.7% 45 (-11)

[IceAgeComing]

I'm not going to go for actual seat numbers since I'm not confident about that UK-wide.  I will predict a Tory majority of somewhere around 50; the SNP will be somewhere between 45 and 50 and that the Lib Dems probably pick up a few net in order to get into double digits.

I will make an NI prediction, because why not

DUP 7 (-1)
Sinn Fein 5 (+1)
SDLP 3 (+-)
Alliance 1 (+1)
Independent 1 (+-)
UUP 1 (-1)

Sinn Fein gain Fermanagh and South Tyrone from the UUP (pretty sure about this if its at all similar to the Assembly election turnout-wise) and the Alliance gain Belfast East from the DUP (that's a bit of a reach admittedly).  The UUP hold South Antrim in a tight race, as to the SDLP in Belfast South.