North Korea declares War on South Korea

[MaxQue]

Benj, you're just parroting the guy in the video Mikado posted; as I said above, I saw the video already and agree with it. That's why I don't think demanding that North Korea end it's nuclear program right now should be a prerequisite to talks. This is not about Kim portraying the US as an enemy, the content of North Koreas propaganda is not why this crisis is worrying. In fact, the precise need to give Kim a legitimating cause besides belligerence is why we should negotiate. The Norths justification for being will never be solely economics, but that doesn't mean that making North Korea richer wouldn't help them. The regime would like to be able to make the argument 'we can develop economically and remain the " pure race" at the same time.'

Why not giving them all the gold in Fort Knox or all Pacific islands if they ask them?
That willingness to surrender to terrorists is disgusting.

[Beet]

Benj, you're just parroting the guy in the video Mikado posted; as I said above, I saw the video already and agree with it. That's why I don't think demanding that North Korea end it's nuclear program right now should be a prerequisite to talks. This is not about Kim portraying the US as an enemy, the content of North Koreas propaganda is not why this crisis is worrying. In fact, the precise need to give Kim a legitimating cause besides belligerence is why we should negotiate. The Norths justification for being will never be solely economics, but that doesn't mean that making North Korea richer wouldn't help them. The regime would like to be able to make the argument 'we can develop economically and remain the " pure race" at the same time.'

Why not giving them all the gold in Fort Knox or all Pacific islands if they ask them?
That willingness to surrender to terrorists is disgusting.

I'd give them all the gold in the world if it would prevent a nuclear war from breaking out. Show me a terrorist with his hand on the nuclear trigger, and I'll negotiate with him any day.

[Beet]

Look, if the North Koreans are at a point where trade is expanding and their economy is doing better, the regime will start to take credit for it and it will become a *part* of the regime's propaganda machine. Never the sole part, but an ever increasingly important part. And then, North Korea will be less of a danger, because by threatening to cut off such trade, we'll have more leverage on them.

A comparison can be made to China. In the 1950s, Mao Zedong shocked a conference of international communists (including Nikita Khruschev) by suggesting that a nuclear war would be a good thing even if half the world's population was wiped out, because it would precipitate a communist revolution. Serious or not, it was indicative of the fact that China had very little to lose then by going to war. It was dirt poor and isolated. The regime's legitimacy was based off ideology and anti-Westernism, just as the North's is today. You won't see Xi Jinping suggesting such a thing today because, a war would collapse China's economy, which is what the regime's legitimacy is based on. Even a Cold War with the US would do the same thing. Thanks to China's economic opening up, the US now has leverage over China whereas it did not in the 1950s.

[dead0man]

Beet, you should keep in mind that we can probably shoot anything down that they fire.  Granted that is a lot riding on a "probably".

[Benj]

Benj, you're just parroting the guy in the video Mikado posted; as I said above, I saw the video already and agree with it. That's why I don't think demanding that North Korea end it's nuclear program right now should be a prerequisite to talks. This is not about Kim portraying the US as an enemy, the content of North Koreas propaganda is not why this crisis is worrying. In fact, the precise need to give Kim a legitimating cause besides belligerence is why we should negotiate. The Norths justification for being will never be solely economics, but that doesn't mean that making North Korea richer wouldn't help them. The regime would like to be able to make the argument 'we can develop economically and remain the " pure race" at the same time.'

Haven't watched the video, so I'm glad we agree. But it's not really about portraying the US as the enemy. It's about being heavily militarized in a way that convinces the people they're actually protecting them. That involves nuclear weapons programs and other militarization. They won't give that up for money.

[Beet]

Benj, you're just parroting the guy in the video Mikado posted; as I said above, I saw the video already and agree with it. That's why I don't think demanding that North Korea end it's nuclear program right now should be a prerequisite to talks. This is not about Kim portraying the US as an enemy, the content of North Koreas propaganda is not why this crisis is worrying. In fact, the precise need to give Kim a legitimating cause besides belligerence is why we should negotiate. The Norths justification for being will never be solely economics, but that doesn't mean that making North Korea richer wouldn't help them. The regime would like to be able to make the argument 'we can develop economically and remain the " pure race" at the same time.'

Haven't watched the video, so I'm glad we agree. But it's not really about portraying the US as the enemy. It's about being heavily militarized in a way that convinces the people they're actually protecting them. That involves nuclear weapons programs and other militarization. They won't give that up for money.

Which is exactly why it shouldn't be a prerequisite for direct talks or trade, which is what the hawks are demanding. North Korea can be nudged in the right direction, but it'll take time. However, we owe it to the seriousness of the situation to make the strongest effort possible, which is a major effort and more than Bush or Obama have been doing. Particularly Obama.

[Silent Hunter]

Benj, you're just parroting the guy in the video Mikado posted; as I said above, I saw the video already and agree with it. That's why I don't think demanding that North Korea end it's nuclear program right now should be a prerequisite to talks. This is not about Kim portraying the US as an enemy, the content of North Koreas propaganda is not why this crisis is worrying. In fact, the precise need to give Kim a legitimating cause besides belligerence is why we should negotiate. The Norths justification for being will never be solely economics, but that doesn't mean that making North Korea richer wouldn't help them. The regime would like to be able to make the argument 'we can develop economically and remain the " pure race" at the same time.'

Why not giving them all the gold in Fort Knox or all Pacific islands if they ask them?
That willingness to surrender to terrorists is disgusting.

I'd give them all the gold in the world if it would prevent a nuclear war from breaking out. Show me a terrorist with his hand on the nuclear trigger, and I'll negotiate with him any day.

That just encourages more terrorists.

[Beet]

Benj, you're just parroting the guy in the video Mikado posted; as I said above, I saw the video already and agree with it. That's why I don't think demanding that North Korea end it's nuclear program right now should be a prerequisite to talks. This is not about Kim portraying the US as an enemy, the content of North Koreas propaganda is not why this crisis is worrying. In fact, the precise need to give Kim a legitimating cause besides belligerence is why we should negotiate. The Norths justification for being will never be solely economics, but that doesn't mean that making North Korea richer wouldn't help them. The regime would like to be able to make the argument 'we can develop economically and remain the " pure race" at the same time.'

Why not giving them all the gold in Fort Knox or all Pacific islands if they ask them?
That willingness to surrender to terrorists is disgusting.

I'd give them all the gold in the world if it would prevent a nuclear war from breaking out. Show me a terrorist with his hand on the nuclear trigger, and I'll negotiate with him any day.

That just encourages more terrorists.

[bullmoose88]

I uhh really don't relish the idea of nuclear war (understatement I know), but if I'm reading some of the posts correctly...what's the point of these sanctions if we're just going to fold? A pretty bad bluff?

I guess I mean, we seem committed to preventing other states from obtaining nuclear arms and delivery systems, but if we're going to cave once they obtain one or perhaps a small number of weapons what's the point? Any country determined to weather the bluff is going to make out big while ignoring us? If I'm understanding the points being made here.

[Beet]

I uhh really don't relish the idea of nuclear war (understatement I know), but if I'm reading some of the posts correctly...what's the point of these sanctions if we're just going to fold? A pretty bad bluff?

Sanctions are pointless, man. How long have sanctions been in place against North Korea? Iran? Cuba? Tell me one case where sanctions were the decisive factor in turning an evil dictatorship with the ability to get nuclear weapons into giving up those weapons. Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gadhafi, and probably soon Bashar Assad... these guys aren't stupid. They know having nukes helps protect them.

If a country is determined to get nukes, and it has the capability, then there are two options. A) We can bomb the sh!t of them. See: Israel, Iraq 1982. B) They're going to get them! Sanctions aren't going to do jack. We should have bombed the sh!t out of North Korea maybe 15 years ago (maybe), but now it's too late. What else are we going to do but accept their nuclear program? Invade? I don't see any other choice.

[bullmoose88]

Ignoring arguments of the equities variety...ie who are we to say you can't have the bomb...do you really want a nuclear DPRK? Iran?

If no, what options are on the table? For now the former doesn't probably posses weapons of quality and quantity to hurt us, yet, but that window is closing no?

[Benj]

Ignoring arguments of the equities variety...ie who are we to say you can't have the bomb...do you really want a nuclear DPRK? Iran?

If no, what options are on the table? For now the former doesn't probably posses weapons of quality and quantity to hurt us, yet, but that window is closing no?

Exactly. It's why we need to make the hard choices *now* and not ten or twenty years from now. All negotiating does is buy North Korea time to build up its missile capacity. They have never shown any indication of abiding by their international agreements before. If we were able to get strong monitoring to ensure compliance, I'd feel differently, but North Korea would never agree to be monitored as part of any negotiated settlement. So we either give them stuff to shut up for a few years and then have an even more dangerous country on our hands in the future, or we ratchet things up now to destabilize the regime, and, yes, possibly fight a war. And now is the perfect time: China is fed up with North Korea and disinclined to support them internationally. We didn't have that opportunity in 2002 when the nuclear program first came to light.

[Beet]

I don't see how anyone can do anything other than assume that absent military action, the regime will survive and will one day have ICBMs clearly capable of hitting the U.S.

That said, I have read some pretty dire descriptions of what an Allied strike on North Korea could entail, in terms of the North's ability to do damage to South Korea. And that was several years ago, when the North's nuclear capabilities weren't really strong enough to be factored in. A president who makes a decision to strike North Korea, even if he is 100% confident in our ability to take out the North's nuclear strike capability before it is able to use it, has to know that he may be signing the death warrant of thousands of South Koreans. A strike on North Korea should have been seriously considered years ago, but I really wonder whether the window has already closed. But I'd like to hear an informed analysis. That guy seanobr was pretty knowledgeable, but he doesn't seem to be around any more.

[Benj]

South Korea is way less worried than you are, Beet.

[Beet]

South Korea is way less worried than you are, Beet.

A lot of South Koreans live in a bubble. They think North Korea is another world. It's not even real to them. They should be pretty damned worried.

Here's a good article from 2005, when the North was a lot less powerful and belligerent than today.http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/07/north-korea-the-war-game/304029/
Read that and tell me you're not worried.

[Beet]

The South Koreans honestly make me sicker than anyone in this whole sad charade except for the North Koreans. It's their own damned country, and they've allowed this problem to fester for decades while (according to what I've read/heard anyway) coming up with airheaded excuses for the North's behavior. They've become a fat, complacent pig, who has been sitting next to a wolf for 50 years and because nothing's happened in 50 years, fat complacent pig has forgotten it's a wolf right next to her. Fat complacent pig didn't realize wolf as just waiting for pig to become fat and complacent enough, before eating her. Fat complacent pig would rather sent Psy to the U.S. to insult American troops, like a teenager lashing out at her parents who are the only ones holding the wolf at bay.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

A lot of South Koreans live in a bubble.

If anyone is living in a bubble it's you,

[Beet]

A lot of South Koreans live in a bubble.

If anyone is living in a bubble it's you,

You know, I could get angry at a personal attack coming from someone who has posted nothing of value in this thread whatsoever, but the truth is, I genuinely hope you're right. I hope they're right and I'm wrong, and that somehow there's a good and peaceful way out of this that I just don't see right now.

[dead0man]

The South Koreans honestly make me sicker than anyone in this whole sad charade except for the North Koreans. It's their own damned country, and they've allowed this problem to fester for decades while (according to what I've read/heard anyway) coming up with airheaded excuses for the North's behavior. They've become a fat, complacent pig, who has been sitting next to a wolf for 50 years and because nothing's happened in 50 years, fat complacent pig has forgotten it's a wolf right next to her. Fat complacent pig didn't realize wolf as just waiting for pig to become fat and complacent enough, before eating her. Fat complacent pig would rather sent Psy to the U.S. to insult American troops, like a teenager lashing out at her parents who are the only ones holding the wolf at bay.

You think N.Korea is powerful wolf and S.Korea is fat pig?  That's not accurate at all.

and again, we can probably shoot down their missile(s).  As a percentage, it's got to be in the high 90s.  Obviously you don't want to be wherever it's aimed at....but....

[Yank2133]

The South Koreans honestly make me sicker than anyone in this whole sad charade except for the North Koreans. It's their own damned country, and they've allowed this problem to fester for decades while (according to what I've read/heard anyway) coming up with airheaded excuses for the North's behavior. They've become a fat, complacent pig, who has been sitting next to a wolf for 50 years and because nothing's happened in 50 years, fat complacent pig has forgotten it's a wolf right next to her. Fat complacent pig didn't realize wolf as just waiting for pig to become fat and complacent enough, before eating her. Fat complacent pig would rather sent Psy to the U.S. to insult American troops, like a teenager lashing out at her parents who are the only ones holding the wolf at bay.

You think N.Korea is powerful wolf and S.Korea is fat pig?  That's not accurate at all.

and again, we can probably shoot down their missile(s).  As a percentage, it's got to be in the high 90s.  Obviously you don't want to be wherever it's aimed at....but....

Yeah, that is gross misrepresentation of the two countries.

Beet is seriously exaggerating the situation. NK can devastate Seoul and that is an issue......but they know if they touch Seoul then that is the end for the Kim Dynasty and NK as we know it. At the end of the day, they care about maintaining the status quo and they know going through with their threats would completely undermine that.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The South Koreans honestly make me sicker than anyone in this whole sad charade except for the North Koreans. It's their own damned country, and they've allowed this problem to fester for decades while (according to what I've read/heard anyway) coming up with airheaded excuses for the North's behavior. They've become a fat, complacent pig, who has been sitting next to a wolf for 50 years and because nothing's happened in 50 years, fat complacent pig has forgotten it's a wolf right next to her. Fat complacent pig didn't realize wolf as just waiting for pig to become fat and complacent enough, before eating her. Fat complacent pig would rather sent Psy to the U.S. to insult American troops, like a teenager lashing out at her parents who are the only ones holding the wolf at bay.

You think N.Korea is powerful wolf and S.Korea is fat pig?  That's not accurate at all.

and again, we can probably shoot down their missile(s).  As a percentage, it's got to be in the high 90s.  Obviously you don't want to be wherever it's aimed at....but....

Yeah, that is gross misrepresentation of the two countries.

Beet is seriously exaggerating the situation. NK can devastate Seoul and that is an issue......but they know if they touch Seoul then that is the end for the Kim Dynasty and NK as we know it. At the end of the day, they care about maintaining the status quo and they know going through with their threats would completely undermine that.

Pretty much. If North Korea was to seriously attack, I think they'd attack where they could do the most damage, and that's Seoul with conventional weapons. North Korea is insane, but I don't think they are quite insane enough to do that because even China might decide to help wipe North Korea out at that point. 

[Beet]

Well, I see everyone is against me here. A few points:

1. To Yank2133's comment that disagrees with me because "At the end of the day, they care about maintaining the status quo."

Well, they could have maintained the status quo last month without any threats. Just refuse to the negotiate with the U.S. By their actions in the last month, they have escalated the situation, which is not maintaining the status quo.

2. North Korea is undoubtedly a powerful wolf. Let's review the facts:
(a) North Korea is a nuclear power. Only a handful of countries around the world can say that, and they are all powerful wolves.
(b) Apart from nuclear weapons, North Korea has the ability to devastate the world's third largest city by conventional weapons. If that's not powerful and scary by itself, not sure what else is.
(c) With 9.5 million troops, North Korea has the largest military organization on earth. The Strategic Rocket Forces operate more than 1,000 ballistic missiles according to South Korean officials.
(d) More from wikipedia: 4,060 tanks, 2,500 APCs, 17,900 artillery pieces, 11,000 air defense guns and some 10,000 MANPADS and anti-tank guided missiles[47] in the Ground force; at least 915 vessels in the Navy and 1,748 aircraft in the Air Force,[48] of which 478 are fighters and 180 are bombers.[49] North Korea also has the largest special forces in the world, as well as the largest submarine flee.

3. South Korea has a lot to lose. Its 2011 GDP was $1.12 trillion, compared to just $12.38 billion for North Korea. It has twice the population of North Korea. This is not even including Japan and other countries North Korea could devastate.

The South Koreans have convinced themselves that being a "developed country" with trapping such as high-speed Internet, k-pop, Samsung, etc. etc. somehow makes them invulnerable to anything truly bad happening to them. Because we think of truly bad things only happening to those in "developing countries", like Syria, Iraq, etc. etc. This is of course not explicitly stated but I believe it has worked its way into the South Korean psyche. The South Koreans do not fully understand that they are different from Western Europe and the U.S. in their proximity to a state such as North Korea.

4. Nevertheless, some South Koreans are concerned. I found this on CNN:

“I am extremely nervous about the situation. All of my family is in South Korea except for me; I am so scared that one day I will wake up and learn that I am an orphan now and my home country is gone. I find myself keep checking the news every second.”
— Hanna, New York

Look, even if we pass this crisis (not sure how it would happen) and say North Korea doesn't attack soon, what then? In a few years North Korea will be even more powerful than today. It will have ICBMs that can hit the continental U.S. Every year, North Korea grows more and more powerful. And every year, it seems to grow more belligerent. Is North Korea not more belligerent this year than last year? And not more belligerent last year than in 2006? And not more belligerent in 2006 than 2001?

I'm very baffled why so many people disagree with me and seem unworried on this thread. North Korea right now is the world's biggest problem state and terrorist state by far. The nature and behavior of the state must be reversed quickly. I really don't understand why everyone seems to think this is some kind of joke. It's far from it.

[Beet]

Also, I believe the U.S. has also become overconfident after confrontations with ramshackle "regimes" like those of Baghdad 1991/2003, Libya, the Taliban 2001, and Serbia. In my discussions, even those Americans who concede North Korea could devastate South Korea seem to think it would be a quick war in which North Korea was somehow easily pounded into dust by the U.S. But the U.S. military presence in South Korea is way too small for that. To use just one example of how weak the regimes the U.S. easily defeated are, the Libyan government was defeated by a bunch of guys riding around in pickup trucks

This is fundamentally different. The U.S. has not fought an opponent like this since the 1960s, at least. Even in 1991, the U.S. took months to build up massive troops in Saudi Arabia before launching the Powell doctrine. The U.S. military is still stretched thin by Afghanistan and could not easily handle rapidly shifting large forces to the Korean peninsula. If a war started tomorrow, my guess is the U.S. would be caught totally off-guard.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The North WANTED some sort of South/US action to justify itself. The US/Japan/South Korea are doing EXACTLY what they should be doing, taking "in case of emergency" precautions, and otherwise... nothing.

The North (despite what some suggest) knows what the consequences of any kind of large-scale attack on Seoul would be... total annihilation. You can spout what they have, but there's no indication they actually know how to use them, let alone, use them to any effect. 

You know how all of these small things explode into world-changing catastrophes, WWI, the Great Depression... people panicked and didn't know the power of doing nothing.

[Yank2133]

Beet, they have a new leader who is trying to make himself legitimate around his generals.....so them "escalating" the situation isn't that big of a surprise. They will push this as far as it can go without actually doing anything(likely the last step out of all this is a missile test).

I don't know why you think they are completely unhinged because they aren't. They know how far they can go with this and once they reach that line they will back down.