Washington state megathread

[RI]

WA-05's Hispanic population is really that low?

Most of Washington's Hispanics live not terribly far from the Columbia or at least within its irrigation range, so it shouldn't be that surprising.

[Alcon]

WA-05's Hispanic population is really that low?

Like RI says, WA-5 is designed perfectly (although unintentionally) to leave Hispanics in WA-4.  They inhabit the picking country around the Columbia River, and in the Yakima Valley, plus Pasco, and then the farmland around Othello -- coincidentally the only part of Adams County that is not in the 5th.  (Othello is 77% Hispanic but Ritzville, the anchor of the WA-5 part of Adams County, is only 6%.)

There have never been established Hispanic communities in Spokane, Pullman, or the ultra-white Northeast and Southeast.  Okanogan County has some in the more agricultural areas, but no real concentrations.  The only populous area of the 5th that has a majority Hispanic community is Walla Walla, and it's small; they're just 22% of the city overall.

It is pretty impressive how concentrated Hispanics are in WA-4, but it's more of a coincidence of economic geography than anything explicitly political.

(Although, considering it's cheap and not prohibitively far from WA-4, it's a little weird that Spokane is still only 5%.)

[Alcon]

The Washington House tonight passed a bill mandating the full conversion to vote by mail.  If the Senate passes it, that would force Pierce County to convert.

[Torie]

What are the tea leaves suggesting as to what will happen to Reichert's (sp) CD? Is he Pubbied up or Dem downed?

[bgwah]

What are the tea leaves suggesting as to what will happen to Reichert's (sp) CD? Is he Pubbied up or Dem downed?

It will probably get a little more Dem, perhaps by losing its southern Pierce portions for more of Kirkland/Redmond, but this is all speculation on my part.

[Alcon]

Based on the Census data, here's some correlation by precinct, by Census race, for the City of Seattle:

Approve R-71
White: +.471
Multiracial: +.014
Native American: -.122
Hispanic: -.148
Black: -.340
Asian: -.480

Murray U.S. Senate 2010
Black: +.269
Multiracial: +.231
Hispanic: +.137
Asian: +.041
Native American: +.021
White: -.189

Gay rights vs. Dem
White: +.660
Native American: -.143
Multiracial: -.217
Hispanic: -.285
Asian: -.521
Black: -.609

[bgwah]

"Yakima doesn't even have a food co-op!"

-Sad lady at the co-op in downtown Bellingham.





...Well I thought it was funny!

[bgwah]

This thread sure has been quiet lately...

Any thoughts on the 2012 gubernatorial election? McKenna seems to be the de facto Republican candidate, though it isn't as clear for the Democrats. Inslee seems most mentioned so far, though Sonntag didn't seem very subtle about his interest in the office in the past (though I haven't read anything lately). And everyone is keeping an eye on Constantine, of course.

What about a Republican candidate for Senate? Will Didier try again?

We also have a a resignation in the House. Special election in the 49th this November?

[bgwah]

Does anybody have info about Lisa Brown's possible run for Lt. Governor? It was mentioned in the Seattle Times, but that's the only place I've seen it mentioned thus far.

[Bacon King]

Does anybody have info about Lisa Brown's possible run for Lt. Governor? It was mentioned in the Seattle Times, but that's the only place I've seen it mentioned thus far.

Primary challenger for Owen or is he not running again?

[Jackson]

Inslee seems most mentioned so far, though Sonntag didn't seem very subtle about his interest in the office in the past (though I haven't read anything lately). And everyone is keeping an eye on Constantine, of course.

What about a Republican candidate for Senate? Will Didier try again?

Sonntag would be the most electable candidate by far. Constantine and Inslee are both similar in terms of electability, so not much interest there.

On the senate race, Cantwell will likely have a walk of a re-election, so I don't see there being anyone of not challenging her. Probably some generic Republican.

[Meeker]

Does anybody have info about Lisa Brown's possible run for Lt. Governor? It was mentioned in the Seattle Times, but that's the only place I've seen it mentioned thus far.

Primary challenger for Owen or is he not running again?

The rumor isn't clear as to whether or not she's trying to challenge him in the primary or just force him into retirement.

I've got no idea if it'll actually happen or not, but it wouldn't be a suicide mission on Brown's part. She's got better connections than Owen and she's significantly more liberal. She would definitely have a shot at beating him.

[bgwah]

Inslee seems most mentioned so far, though Sonntag didn't seem very subtle about his interest in the office in the past (though I haven't read anything lately). And everyone is keeping an eye on Constantine, of course.

What about a Republican candidate for Senate? Will Didier try again?

Sonntag would be the most electable candidate by far. Constantine and Inslee are both similar in terms of electability, so not much interest there.

On the senate race, Cantwell will likely have a walk of a re-election, so I don't see there being anyone of not challenging her. Probably some generic Republican.

I used to think this, but now I'm not sure. Sonntag manages to win by such large majorities because he appeals to more moderate Republicans and Republican-leaning independents... but I suspect McKenna would easily take a large majority of such voters against Sonntag. What does that leave Sonntag with? He probably couldn't even fire up the Democratic base, something Inslee or Constantine could at least do.

[Napoleon]

Washington is lucky to elect President and Governor concurrently.

[Meeker]

Jay Clough is going to run and lose again: http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2011/04/19/1456371/clough-not-shy-to-make-new-run.html?storylink=addthis

[bgwah]

Jay Clough is going to run and lose again: http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2011/04/19/1456371/clough-not-shy-to-make-new-run.html?storylink=addthis

Unlike that other Democrat who could totally win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Washington is lucky to elect President and Governor concurrently.

I prefer to be guaranteed an interesting election every cycle. Having gubernatorial elections in Presidential years means if there's no Senate election up in a midterm there's no statewide election. This can diminish turnout and would favor teabagger type crazies.

[Napoleon]

If Washington's election was in 2002 instead of 2004, Gregoire would have lost. States with large Democratic cities tend to have better Democratic turnout in Presidential years. Elections are fun from the sidelines but I'm sure our washingtonians are thankful they haven't had a Republican governor in a long time.

[redcommander]

I actually think it's a better idea for every state to hold gubernatorial elections in an off-presidential year. It allows for a more equal opportunity to Republicans to win in Democratic areas, and Democrats to win in Republican areas. I think it would be highly unlikely that Henry would have been elected in Oklahoma for example, or Christie in New Jersey, if there elections were held concurrently with Presidential elections.

[Meeker]

Washington is lucky to elect President and Governor concurrently.

I prefer to be guaranteed an interesting election every cycle. Having gubernatorial elections in Presidential years means if there's no Senate election up in a midterm there's no statewide election. This can diminish turnout and would favor teabagger type crazies.

There's a great turnout benefit for Democratic states that have their gubernatorial races during presidential years. For instance, Tim Pawlenty probably wouldn't've been re-elected had you held your gubernatorial race in 2008 instead of 2006.

[Alcon]

Boring stuff mostly for my own archive:

I did a little statistical analysis of Seattle.  I established a "liberal index" for each precinct, using the obvious left vs. right ballot items.  Using that index, I established a baseline -- e.g., if your precinct is x% liberal overall, you should expect it to vote y% for Patty Murray.  For each precinct, I established which ballot items fared better than the precinct's liberalism would suggest, and which fared worse.  Finally, I compared these results to figure out:  If a ballot measure runs unusually strongly in a precinct, what other ballot measures are likely to?  Basically, this detects correlations while eliminating the variable of precinct ideology.  Only notable correlations:

* If Booze 'A' ran strong, Booze 'B' was likely to run strong.  Obviously. (0.69)
* If Candy Tax Repeal ran strong, Income Tax was likely to run strong. (0.66)
* If Patty Murray ran strong, Candy Tax Repeal was likely to run strong. (0.62)

...Definitely shows you the undercurrents of socioeconomic politics in Seattle.

Here's the correlation between ballot items and overall liberalness of ballots cast:

No on Eyman Tax Limits: +0.96
Approve School Green Energy Bonds: +0.92
Patty Murray: +0.89
Yes on Income Tax: +0.89
No on Privatizing Industrial insurance: +0.86
Charlie Wiggins for State Supreme Court: +0.83
No on Candy Tax Repeal: +0.82
Approve State Debt Limit Raise: +0.79
No on I-1105 (Liquor Privatization 'B'): +0.63
Reject allowing remand for violent felons: +0.38
No on I-1100 (Liquor Privatization 'A'): +0.20

Correlation between Patty Murray and all of this:

Yes on Income Tax: +0.89
No on Eyman Tax Limits: +0.85
No on Privatizing Industrial insurance: +0.82
Approve School Green Energy Bonds: +0.80
Approve State Debt Limit Raise: +0.70
Charlie Wiggins for State Supreme Court: +0.61
No on Candy Tax Repeal: +0.56
No on I-1105 (Liquor Privatization 'B'): +0.51
Reject allowing remand for violent felons: +0.45
No on I-1100 (Liquor Privatization 'A'): +0.27

Correlation with No on Candy Tax Repeal:

Charlie Wiggins for Supreme Court: +0.83
No on Eyman Tax Limits: +0.78
Approve School Green Energy Bonds: +0.76
Approve State Debt Limit Raise: +0.67
No on I-1105 (Liquor Privatization 'B'): +0.64
No on Privatizing Industrial insurance: +0.58
Patty Murray: +0.56
Yes on Income Tax: +0.54
Reject allowing remand for violent felons: +0.15
No on I-1100 (Liquor Privatization 'A'): +0.06

And here are the likely ballot combos with the strongest correlation in Seattle:

1. Patty Murray/Yes on Income Tax (+0.89)
2. Patty Murray/No on Eyman Tax Limits (+0.85)
3. No on Eyman Tax Limits/No on Industrial Insurance Privatization (+0.85)
4. No on Eyman Tax Limits/Approve Green Energy Bonds (+0.85)
5. Yes on Income Tax/Approve Green Energy Bonds (+0.84)
6. Yes on Income Tax/No on Eyman Tax Limits (+0.83)
7. No on Candy Tax Repeal/Charlie Wiggins for Supreme Court (+0.83)
8. Patty Murray/No on Industrial Insurance Privatization (+0.82)
9. Patty Murray/Approve Green Energy Bonds (+0.80)
10. No on Candy Tax Repeal/No on Eyman Tax Limits (+0.78)

All "liberal" ballot choices correlated with each other, including No on the booze issues and Reject on the bail issue, with the weakest being Charlie Wiggins and No on I-1100 Liquor Privatization (only +0.03).

Turnout correlation was mixed.  Higher rates of turnout correlated with No on I-1105 Liquor Privatization (+0.39), No on Candy Tax Repeal (+0.38), Charlie Wiggins for Supreme Court (+0.32), No on I-1100 Liquor Privatization (+0.14), No on Eyman Tax Limits (+0.13), No on Industrial Insurance Privatization (+0.11), and Approve on State Debt Limit Raise (+0.01).  

Turnout correlation was negative for Approve School Green Energy Bonds (-0.06), Patty Murray for U.S. Senate (-0.09), Yes on Income Tax (-0.23) and Reject on the bail issue (-0.28).

[Joe Republic]

Do you guys want me to move this (back) to the Guber board?

[Meeker]

Do you guys want me to move this (back) to the Guber board?

Yes plz.

[bgwah]

Anyone see The Stranger bit on Kucinich perhaps moving here and running for Congress?

LOL times a billion if true. I would totally donate to his campaign.

[Meeker]

He's done events in Olympia and Tacoma in the past few months... exactly where the conventional wisdom says the 10th CD may end up.

Bizarre.